FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[tronic72]

Sometimes the market can be so sadistic

I bought this stock in early August for $3.06 then sold a week odd ago for $3.00, as it appeared to be dropping off.

Within a day or two of selling it started heading up again. I got another buy signal on it a couple of days ago, but by the time I could check it out yesterday, it was already up about 6%, so I didn't buy. Today it's up another 9.4%, just closed at $3.85.

I'm sure there's some little man sitting there in the stock exchange watching what I'm doing on my computer... :

Cheers,
GP

What a sign of the times. This was posted 3 years ago and we are getting close to that price again. I think we may see stocks like FMG get there sometimes soon.

T

 

[tigerboi]

What a sign of the times. This was posted 3 years ago and we are getting close to that price again. I think we may see stocks like FMG get there sometimes soon.

T

i bought this last 16th august at $25($2.50)after buying first at $33($3.30)...i think this may see $4.50...tb

 

[Prospector]

What a sign of the times. This was posted 3 years ago and we are getting close to that price again. I think we may see stocks like FMG get there sometimes soon.

T

Well, not really, there was a share split! Can't compare the two at that price. Those shares went up to around $45 first.

 

[rthakkar]

http://business.smh.com.au/business/iron-supply-catching-demand-says-bhp-20080916-4hw8.html

"BHP BILLITON has painted a bullish view of the long-term demand for commodities but has warned that expanding iron ore supply is beginning to catch up with demand."

Silly comment!

 

[prawn_86]

"BHP BILLITON has painted a bullish view of the long-term demand for commodities but has warned that expanding iron ore supply is beginning to catch up with demand."

Silly comment!

Makes sense to me. A lot of small and mid teir co's coming online now and within the next year.

Why is it a silly comment? Or were you being sarcastic?

 

[agro]

noticed a few massive buys go in, in fact just saw one for 280k at 5.21..

and you people tell me there isn't someone on the side ready to pounce..

 

[Trembling Hand]

Agro. just shifting of the furniture on the decks,

Futures and index options expire tomorrow. :Lots of high volume changing of hands. Mostly they will not be directional bets.

 

[njc.corp]

Turn out to be a nice sunny day but not on fmg-

i will say that i made some very good money on fmg in the past

but i have given back as much as i wanted too lately-

i feel i cant trade this stock and many others and i am due for a break too-- i am going to try some new angles and stay out of this ugly storm for has long as i can-

Like to say who ever is in fmg that they make good $$$ -good times ahead-well that should be the happy ending--

I am out-

Thanks

Nick--

 

[gav]

noticed a few massive buys go in, in fact just saw one for 280k at 5.21..

and you people tell me there isn't someone on the side ready to pounce..

could it just be shorters closing their position?


gav

 

[Gspot]

could it just be shorters closing their position?


gav

Or could it be an announcement coming?
Either or either, she's starting to look good. Trying to get the confidence, for a Braveheart decision.

 

[Trembling Hand]

could it just be shorters closing their position?


gav

Guys everything is an excuse to buy hey??

I remember seeing a couple of post here not that long ago paying out on someone because they knew nothing about the company but the share price and happily traded that way. They were so sure of other peoples methods that they can discredit them.

BUT they seem to not even have half a grasp on market mechanics.....

Google futures expiry and Arbitrage.

 

[LeeTV]

Some good news for all iron ore based stocks hopefully that will help stop the slide of FMG in to more negative country

Iron ore prices tipped to rise 18% in 09
17-September-08 by AAP

Iron ore producers are in line for a seventh consecutive price rise despite the upheaval in financial markets and question marks over the health of the global economy, analysts say.

The big winners will include Rio Tinto Ltd and rival BHP Billiton Ltd, the world's second and third largest iron ore producers.

GoldmanSachsJBWere is predicting an 18 per cent plus price rise for Australian iron ore "fines" in the Japanese financial year starting April 1, 2009, after annual contract talks are concluded.

Demand for the steel making commodity continues to be driven by the rapid urbanisation of China and other developing nations, including India.

"Can iron ore contract prices rise at a time when spot iron ore/steel/scrap prices are all falling and global steel production growth is losing momentum?," Goldman Sachs asked in a client note.

"Our answer is "yes" - it has happened before and can happen again."

The brokerage said that the supply-demand dynamics for high quality seaborne iron ore are robust enough for the large contract suppliers - BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale - to secure a seventh consecutive annual price rise.

BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto this year settled on a 79.88 per cent increase in the price of iron ore fines and a 96.50 per cent increase in the price of iron ore lump with Asian customers.

The rise was the sixth annual increase in contract prices for the steelmaking commodity.

BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are progressively ramping up their operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia to address increasing demand from China and other developing nations.

Shares in BHP Billiton dropped 75 cents to close at $35.65, while Rio Tinto lost $4.85 to $102.00.

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/

 

[renim]

i don't know how the low aussie dollar affects fmg debts, but it must be magic for its revenue/costs. me thinks a reduction in interest rates would further assist exporters.

 

[gwnth]

I would like to think I would treat this stock as I would an old , past its time dog. I would take a Bucket of water out to the back garden pore it on the ground to soften the soil and start digging a hole. Once the hole was deep enough I would sit down have a drink and think of all the good times we had and probably shed a few tears then call the vet. The vet would come round with a needle and put the poor thing to sleep i would then teary eyed put it in the hole and fill it in. my belief is that this company is way past its use by date and should be gotten rid of before it totally breaks your heart and stops you getting another puppy.

 

[diliff]

I would like to think I would treat this stock as I would an old , past its time dog. I would take a Bucket of water out to the back garden pore it on the ground to soften the soil and start digging a hole. Once the hole was deep enough I would sit down have a drink and think of all the good times we had and probably shed a few tears then call the vet. The vet would come round with a needle and put the poor thing to sleep i would then teary eyed put it in the hole and fill it in. my belief is that this company is way past its use by date and should be gotten rid of before it totally breaks your heart and stops you getting another puppy.

Lol... lovely analogy and first post. Obviously it has been hit extremely hard lately, but is it fundamentally flawed? I don't claim to be an expert on the markets, commodities or even fundamental analysis but plenty of people still seem to think FMG is going to go places in the long term. Besides market sentiment, is there really reason to believe it is headed for a premature and painful (for holders, that is) death?

 

[gav]

Guys everything is an excuse to buy hey??

I remember seeing a couple of post here not that long ago paying out on someone because they knew nothing about the company but the share price and happily traded that way. They were so sure of other peoples methods that they can discredit them.

BUT they seem to not even have half a grasp on market mechanics.....

Google futures expiry and Arbitrage.

wat the? agro was just pointing out a big buy, and i merely suggested it could have been someone closing a short? whats wrong with that?

 

[Trembling Hand]

wat the? agro was just pointing out a big buy, and i merely suggested it could have been someone closing a short? whats wrong with that?

Because it wasn't a big buy!!!

Its almost 100% not a directional bet at all. Have a look at every top 50 stock on the close, and watch tomorrow too. Its Expiry time all the arbs cross hands.

And even if it wasn't roll over lets say today is 3rd Sep and that big trade when through. What can you take from that???? Nothing! a large buyer bought from a large seller?? If you look at it unbiased it could of been any of 4 things in combination.

If it was a short cover buying whats to say the big seller on the other side wasn't opening a new short position??? This is the thing with such statements there is two people on either side of every trade. What you choose to think it was has nothing to do with truth but rather shows bias.... you want the shorts to cover??

 

[Miner]

noticed a few massive buys go in, in fact just saw one for 280k at 5.21..

and you people tell me there isn't someone on the side ready to pounce..

Hi Agro

YOu have been a strong supporter of FMG.

Just curious to know if you still have them and what indicative price you got them in your kitty.

I bought and sold them . Last I bought them at $7,25 and still holding out of fear to see the downslide and have not able to cut the loss with a hope that price will revive.

I am more afraid with the drilling contract with ALS for $300 M and selling by Harbinger (not short sell propaganda).

Regards

Miner

 

[tony montana]

FMG mine expansion may cost $7b: JPMorgan

17th September 2008, 12:30 WST


Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group may need to raise more than $7 billion to almost triple capacity, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The company “is assessing funding options - debt, equity, sale and leaseback, internal cash flow - but all but the last option have become more difficult to achieve at attractive pricing in this deteriorated financial environment,” Melbourne-based analysts led by David George said in a report dated yesterday.

Perth-based Fortescue wants to expand output to at least 160 million metric tons a year, JPMorgan said.

Fortescue, seeking to become Australia’s third-largest iron ore exporter, wants to increase output to take advantage of surging prices for the steelmaking raw material, which rose as much as 97 per cent this year. A global credit crunch is tightening access to funds, making it more difficult for some mining companies to finance expansions.

“Fortescue continues to generate strong income from iron ore sales which attracted a significant price increase so will provide a large part of the company’s expansion funding,” Cameron Morse, a Perth-based spokesman for Fortescue, said today. “We’ve always said that but that’s been forgotten given the current circumstances.”

Fortescue dropped 6.8 per cent to $5.21 at 12.22pm. The stock has fallen 60 per cent from its June 25 record.

BLOOMBERG

 

[gav]

yes, it could have been someone else opening a short. i was just offering an alternative to what agro said, nothing to do with any bias toward the stock. i never said that i wanted the shorts to cover.

Because it wasn't a big buy!!!

Its almost 100% not a directional bet at all. Have a look at every top 50 stock on the close, and watch tomorrow too. Its Expiry time all the arbs cross hands.

And even if it wasn't roll over lets say today is 3rd Sep and that big trade when through. What can you take from that???? Nothing! a large buyer bought from a large seller?? If you look at it unbiased it could of been any of 4 things in combination.

If it was a short cover buying whats to say the big seller on the other side wasn't opening a new short position??? This is the thing with such statements there is two people on either side of every trade. What you choose to think it was has nothing to do with truth but rather shows bias.... you want the shorts to cover??

WTF are you on about? "what i choose to think is the truth"???? what so called false truths have I claimed?