FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Go Nuke]

Its on the back of the decline in resources imo.

Look at Uranium.
The price of that is (slowly) going up, but everyone related to uranium is still trending down because its following resources.

Of course there are a heap of other factors involved but primarily...resources are retracing and so will FMG

 

[wildthing]

Hi All,
Is that a bullish hammer showing on daily chart?
With a bit of luck it will go up tomorrow. What do you reckon.
I am now holding.
Asx tested support today so hoping it maybe up tomorrow too.
Heres hoping
cheers:

 

[MichaelD]

i am holding regardless

Will you still hold at $6?
Will you still hold at $5?
Will you still hold at $4?
$3? $2? $1?

It's a good company, after all.

 

[SenTineL]

agro - why would you quote such a massive post when replying straight underneath it????

sorry, i just don't get it

 

[agro]

agro - why would you quote such a massive post when replying straight underneath it????

sorry, i just don't get it

i apologise..

September 05, 2008


Harbinger caught up in FMG short selling
US hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners has reportedly been connected to the short selling of shares in iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group, an issue that has plagued the company’s share price over the past 2 months.

In an announcement to the Australian Securities Exchange, FMG advised that some 10% of the company’s shares have been subject of stock loans.

FMG, which didn’t name the shareholder, said that the stock loans were made by the owner’s custodian and the owner had since advised the company that it would immediately rectify the situation.

According to a report in the Australian Financial Review, the shareholder in question is Mr Phil Falcone backed Harbinger Capital Partners. The newspaper said that Harbinger’s custodian had lent the USD 2 billion worth of shares to other investors, who sold the FMG shares in the hope they could buy them back at a lower share price, without Harbinger’s knowledge.

FMG's southbound share movement has been linked to short sellers, with broker Southern Cross telling clients FMG had been subject to an aggressive and coordinated shorting campaign from a high of USD 13.15. However, it remained a mystery how short sellers could get their hands on the company’s shares given the top 20 shareholders, who own 91% of its stock, were long term FMG investors.

 

[SenTineL]

lol so you do it again straight after......

anyway back on topic, that share price is looking nasty, i wonder what peoples stops at set at??

 

[gav]

lol so you do it again straight after......

anyway back on topic, that share price is looking nasty, i wonder what peoples stops at set at??

Stops? I didnt sell at $13, why would I sell at $6.39?

It is only a loss if you sell.

 

[nunthewiser]

Stops? I didnt sell at $13, why would I sell at $6.39?

It is only a loss if you sell.

nah m8 , its only worth 6 bucks as valued by the market regardless of how u feel and if bought higher its still a loss regardlesss if u sell or not , cant say to the bank i have 100000 fmg bought at 13 can i use that as equity , as the actual answer is that they only valued at 6 at present according to market , often hear that quote and personally think itsa load of twaddle.
a loss is a loss regardless how ya word it

 

[gav]

If I had sold a couple of months ago, I would have made a 41% profit. I was up 41%, but I did not make a 41% profit, because I did not sell. Im now down 26%, so my FMG investment is now WORTH 26% less than the capital I put in. But I have not made a 26% LOSS, because I have not sold.

Do I wish to sell now? No
Do I wish to borrow against my FMG investment? No
Then I have not lost anything.

If I knew it was going to trace back to $5, then I would definitely sell now and lock in a loss. But I dont know that. What I think is more possible, is that in 2-3 years time FMG will be at all time highs, so I am not prepared to make a loss on something I believe will be worth alot more in the future. If anything, I'll just continue buying more if it drops further

 

[oldblue]

Hi gav.

If I was going to buy FMG, and I've been often tempted these last few weeks, I'd wait until the current trend turns up and the SP starts to show a bit of strength.



Discl. Not holding, yet.

 

[michael_selway]

If I had sold a couple of months ago, I would have made a 41% profit. I was up 41%, but I did not make a 41% profit, because I did not sell. Im now down 26%, so my FMG investment is now WORTH 26% less than the capital I put in. But I have not made a 26% LOSS, because I have not sold.

Do I wish to sell now? No
Do I wish to borrow against my FMG investment? No
Then I have not lost anything.

If I knew it was going to trace back to $5, then I would definitely sell now and lock in a loss. But I dont know that. What I think is more possible, is that in 2-3 years time FMG will be at all time highs, so I am not prepared to make a loss on something I believe will be worth alot more in the future. If anything, I'll just continue buying more if it drops further

Yeah sounds good

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -2.6 -35.2 41.7 81.6
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Date: 5/9/2008
Author: Michael Vaughan; Andrew White
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 49
Questions regarding Fortescue Metals Group stock have prompted new calls forincreased disclosure of stock lending practices. Some have likened stock lendingto short selling. Fortescue has claimed that 10% of its issued capital has beensubjected to stock loans. Harbinger Capital Partners senior MD, Phil Falcone,has stated that he does not lend out his stock. Fortescue shares fell $A0.25 to$A6.80 on 4 September 2008

thx

MS

 

[nunthewiser]

a wise man once told me , " a listed stock is nothing but a 3 letter word , marry it at your peril" i believe in this and yes i understand your belief but at the end of the day we here to make a buck not to wave goodbye to our cash. each to there own but been down this road before and learnt many a valuable lesson ..... anyways .........

 

[agro]

Here's hoping for a better day Monday:

Sep 8, 2008 Full Year 2008 FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD Earnings Release - 12:00PM AEST

source: Google finance

 

[renim]

Monday should be interesting then, with production started and ramping up to see how cash flow is, i suspect fmgs downward momentum is driven by an expectation of poor cash flow due to onging expansion plans.

for some paper gains and paper losses are not real until realised, just ask a tax man or an accountant.
for others paper gains and paper losses are real at every point in time, just ask a banker.

both are correct, but for different reasons, which reason fits your situation...

finally remember that this is a zero sum game, for every seller there is a buyer, for every buyer there is a seller.

 

[MichaelD]

One thing's a given;

Those that are declaring they won't sell/it's not a loss until you sell/etc - you'll either ride the stock to zero and then blame someone else for the loss, or you will indeed sell...right at the very bottom, just when you can't take the pain any more.

 

[agro]

One thing's a given;

Those that are declaring they won't sell/it's not a loss until you sell/etc - you'll either ride the stock to zero and then blame someone else for the loss, or you will indeed sell...right at the very bottom, just when you can't take the pain any more.

just think of the 92% of FMG that are holding shares and none of them decided to quit.

Have you forgotten that both Chinese and Russian steel companies wanted a bigger slice of FMG but missed out?

do you really beleive that they don't want any more? and have they sold the slice that they bought in the first place?

you can fool the mums and dads, but you cannot fool twiggy

i stick with twiggy, i'll hold forever and ever amen.

don't worry about it, you wont be around if FMG is ever at 0.

 

[agro]

It is natural to feel insecure when the value of the share goes down.
Are you a trader or investor?
If a trader,review your tactics .No use ramping up and down to mislead others so you make a dollar.
If you are investor ,who bought FMG last year or before; lets look were it was and where it is now. FMG is nearly double in value to what it was sept last year.

Now fair to use BHP and RIO , to compare FMG as The New Force In Iron Ore.
Compare share prices then and now, include the dividends to be fair.

FMG started to look good already .

Now ,Look at the market history last year ,when FMG dipped by 50 %.
Now that was scarey and the weak ones sold ,ONLY to regret doing so later.

While they were selling The Russians were buying .And so happy, that they applied to gov for a bigger slice of FMG .

Then the Chinese wanted more of FMG ,but I believe Harbinger was not keen in parting shares despite of the reasonable price and credit at the time.

Next we have the Chinese companies who readily offering to fund the latest expansion.
You think they are mad ,when FMG share is going down?

And while you deciding on what to do ,Think of Twiggy who on paper lost billions.
Is he stupid that he did not sell, OR he can see his dream come to fruition in years to come ?

Who is accumulating shares behind the scene ?????

Well are you ready to sell ? Go ahead make my day .I hold and buy some more at give away price . There is always a buyer.

 

[oldblue]

Yes, there is always a buyer - at a price.
I didn't read Michael's comments as applying to FMG specifically but rather as to the potential danger in deciding to hold onto a stock, come what may, particularly in current market conditions. Perhaps he will clarify.

 

[MichaelD]

If you are investor ,who bought FMG last year or before; lets look were it was and where it is now. FMG is nearly double in value to what it was sept last year.

And it's less than 1/2 the value it was 2 months ago.

It was a bargain at $10
It was a Bargain at $9
It was a BARGAIN at $8
It must be a SUPER DUPER BARGAIN at $6.50

Want to hazard a guess at how low it will go?

Well are you ready to sell ? Go ahead make my day .I hold and buy some more at give away price . There is always a buyer.

I sold what seems an aeon ago when it hit my stop loss at $8.50. A nice multi-R profit. A lovely big gap up exit to close off courtesy of the true believers.


ps The GDN thread has perhaps the same story, only further advanced. A meteoric rise, trend followers cashing in, and then an even faster drop into....almost....oblivion. But it's a good company - just ask any of those that still hold from the peak ($1.30...now down to $0.07).

 

[agro]

And it's less than 1/2 the value it was 2 months ago.

It was a bargain at $10
It was a Bargain at $9
It was a BARGAIN at $8
It must be a SUPER DUPER BARGAIN at $6.50

Want to hazard a guess at how low it will go?


I sold what seems an aeon ago when it hit my stop loss at $8.50. A nice multi-R profit. A lovely big gap up exit to close off courtesy of the true believers.


ps The GDN thread has perhaps the same story, only further advanced. A meteoric rise, trend followers cashing in, and then an even faster drop into....almost....oblivion. But it's a good company - just ask any of those that still hold from the peak ($1.30...now down to $0.07).

you must be looking to buy it yourself considering you are asking me how low it will go? lol

i don't have a crystal ball and i don't try and pick bottoms