- Joined
- 15 June 2023
- Posts
- 1,103
- Reactions
- 2,397
The gates have slammed open and FMG is off to a good start.
FMG - Fortescue Ltd
- Thread starter GreatPig
- Start date
- Joined
- 28 August 2022
- Posts
- 6,531
- Reactions
- 10,542
They are off and racing. The big 3 all had a good jump at the barrier start.
Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
- Joined
- 13 January 2014
- Posts
- 12,194
- Reactions
- 8,437
The difference between nickel and iron ore, is that in nickel Australia has always been a high cost producer, when you are the high cost producer you will always be operating on a knife edge.
How ever in Iron Ore we are the lowest cost producer, it’s not really possible for others to bring large sums of iron ore to market. At a lower cost than the Pilbara.
Brazil is the next lowest, but they are nearly 3 times the distance to Asian markets, so shipping cost add to their cost.
You aren’t really seeing the big picture. You are letting cynicism and conspiracy cloud your judgement.
Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
- Joined
- 13 January 2014
- Posts
- 12,194
- Reactions
- 8,437
You probably won’t be able to get in at $15, and you will watch it go back to $30, and miss out on all the divvies in between. But yeah, it’s the long term holders that bought at $3 and have collected $20 in divvies so far that are silly
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
- Joined
- 8 September 2006
- Posts
- 7,526
- Reactions
- 4,560
Possible start of 4th wave on 5 wave down
Took a small position at $17.47 to get over FOMO.
Took a small position at $17.47 to get over FOMO.
Well, I think most of us got hammer holding parcels above $25 plus when Fe price kept dropping.You probably won’t be able to get in at $15, and you will watch it go back to $30, and miss out on all the divvies in between. But yeah, it’s the long term holders that bought at $3 and have collected $20 in divvies so far that are silly
$30 will reinstall confidence with FMG.
$15 for those are waiting eg me too, will be for top up or diluting. We still believe in Twiggy.
Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
- Joined
- 13 January 2014
- Posts
- 12,194
- Reactions
- 8,437
Still, even if you bought you shares at $25 you are earning about 12% in dividends (inc franking), not a bad income to earn while you wait.
I Doubt “Most” people paid $25 though, it wasn’t actually above $25 for long, it was trading between $18 and $22 for ages, heaps of time for people to building up a decent holding.
No hurry, the above link is good.
As for grammar, since gold is your object of affection, I can' see why you can't use 'gold and I' Sounds more intimate and heart strings attached
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
- Joined
- 9 July 2004
- Posts
- 25,747
- Reactions
- 12,931
Perhaps one of the finest buy signals that exist in the market, when Muppet journalists declare it's all over.
I have mortgaged my house, sold all my cars, flogged all the horses, even sold all of my precious metal holdings. I've leveraged myself up taking loans from Banks, building societies, friends family, and loan sharks to buy FMG
***
I am slightly exaggerating and if anyone has followed my AIM posts, I thought that this would be a good candidate around that pivot low.
Would love to say that I nailed it to the cent at that bottom, alas I didn't but did get my parcel in a reasonable proximity.
Into do widows and orphans portfolio and see how it goes.
I have mortgaged my house, sold all my cars, flogged all the horses, even sold all of my precious metal holdings. I've leveraged myself up taking loans from Banks, building societies, friends family, and loan sharks to buy FMG
***
I am slightly exaggerating and if anyone has followed my AIM posts, I thought that this would be a good candidate around that pivot low.
Would love to say that I nailed it to the cent at that bottom, alas I didn't but did get my parcel in a reasonable proximity.
Into do widows and orphans portfolio and see how it goes.
So what’s looking ahead for fmg ? Will it just go up a few bucks , or power on till Xmas . $98 bucks a ton atm
Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
- Joined
- 13 January 2014
- Posts
- 12,194
- Reactions
- 8,437
who knows what their shares price will do in the short term. But they will keep digging up iron ore and shipping it customers, and paying out the profits to share holders as dividends. Some times the profit will be higher and sometimes lower, but if you hold through the cycle like an avocado farmer would hold his farm when the price of avo's drops, you will do well.
If you try and buy and sell based on your predictions of avos or iron ore you will probably do less well over time.
- Joined
- 15 June 2023
- Posts
- 1,103
- Reactions
- 2,397
It can play out in a multitude of ways, higher priced miners could go in care of maintenance and give Aussie miners a bigger share of the supply market, or they could cut production and workers to save money and cause an undersupply in the long run.
At current there's a run out sale on old stock rebar in China (so there is an oversupply of cheap rebar) because they are changing to a higher standard of rebar. Rebar is a good chunk of the iron ore market for construction.
I’m still trying to understand why Rio is at $112 . While ore is $98. Some are saying the Aussie big miners are ‘controlling the market. Chinese on the other hand saying they are overstocked
Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
- Joined
- 13 January 2014
- Posts
- 12,194
- Reactions
- 8,437
what price do you think Rio should be?
the market is not always efficient things are often mis priced, if you think something is good value based on what you think it is going to return to shareholders over the next 5 or 10 or 20 years buy it, if you think its not good value based on what it will return to shareholders avoid it.
The stock market is a place where those that make the most accurate estimates and act on them prosper while those that make inaccurate estimates or don't act don't prosper.
- Joined
- 8 March 2007
- Posts
- 2,654
- Reactions
- 3,620
Unfortunately the Chinese are not known for telling the Truth in major financial matters and come to think of it
Crikey! So does Everyone else--
As my Father used to say
" Stop Thinking Chaz, You are NO GOOD at it"
- Joined
- 28 August 2022
- Posts
- 6,531
- Reactions
- 10,542
@Value Collector Woe wee we are agreeing on something at last.
Well… $98 a ton , then Rio down to low $100 ,s ? min res , dropped to $43 bucks on Tues , fmg down to $16 bucks the other day , & here I am sitting in the sidelines .
Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
- Joined
- 13 January 2014
- Posts
- 12,194
- Reactions
- 8,437
Fmg always seems to cop an unjustified amount of the fear trade, so always seems to be more volatile than BHp and Rio.
But, when it comes to MIN vs RIO, high cost producers should always suffer much larger reductions in profitability than low cost producers, so you can expect higher cost producers to suffer more.
For example, if one company producers Iron Ore for $15 and another for $80, when the price of iron ore drops from $120 to $90 the first company’s profit reduced by about 20% while the high cost producers profit will reduce by about 75%.
So high cost produces have their profits squeezed but a lot more than low cost producers, and also risk going into the red quicker.
Lowest price that I paid was $1.50USD on 11/11/2008You probably won’t be able to get in at $15, and you will watch it go back to $30, and miss out on all the divvies in between. But yeah, it’s the long term holders that bought at $3 and have collected $20 in divvies so far that are silly
