Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

FMG - Fortescue Ltd

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divs4ever said:
i exited when it was obvious Twiggy was chasing 'the Green Dream ' fearing FMG would fall into a R&D abyss

would i come back ?

well today i chased BHP ( successfully ) and BSL ( unsuccessfully )

maybe not in any rush ( to re-enter FMG)
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In the $14 range, I think they are a good pickup, i'll have another nibble at that price.
However I'm not convinced, everything is heading in the right direction for Australia, the wheels are becomming very wobbly. Lol
The renewable super power and Australian made, is starting to sound like pub talk, not much happening on the ground.
 
Found a new support level for today after a quick jump from the dark depths of the ocean.

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Citi issued an upgrade on FMG to buy but still cautioned about iron ore prices.



Fortescue shares rise as Citi upgrades to 'buy'​


The news: Fortescue shares climbed on the ASX after Citi upgraded its rating on the mining giant, having slumped on Thursday as the benchmark iron ore price tumbled.
The numbers: Fortescue shares were up 3.9% to $17.47 by 1:25pm AEST, after closing 2.77% lower on Thursday as iron ore fell to its lowest level since 2022.
Citi analysts upgraded the miner to 'buy' and retained their $21 target price. It noted that Fortescue shares are down 38% in the last six months, compared to 12% and 14% declines by ASX peers Rio Tinto and BHP.
The context: Citi analysts said the upgrade was due to the "depth of the valuation discount" of Fortescue stock, rather than their "still cautious" iron ore outlook.
However, the analysts noted that despite remaining cautious on iron prices heading into a seasonally weaker second half, consensus iron ore pricing of US$100 ($150.97) per tonne in the 2025 calendar year "looks reasonable" given an expected reduction in high-cost production to offset new tonnes to the seaborne market.
At Citi's forecast FY25 iron ore price of US$103 per tonne, Fortescue's dividend yield is 5.1% at a 50% payout ratio would reduce to 3.2% at a US$90 per tonne price point.
The source: Citi research
 
TimeISmoney said:
Citi issued an upgrade on FMG to buy but still cautioned about iron ore prices.



Fortescue shares rise as Citi upgrades to 'buy'​


The news: Fortescue shares climbed on the ASX after Citi upgraded its rating on the mining giant, having slumped on Thursday as the benchmark iron ore price tumbled.
The numbers: Fortescue shares were up 3.9% to $17.47 by 1:25pm AEST, after closing 2.77% lower on Thursday as iron ore fell to its lowest level since 2022.
Citi analysts upgraded the miner to 'buy' and retained their $21 target price. It noted that Fortescue shares are down 38% in the last six months, compared to 12% and 14% declines by ASX peers Rio Tinto and BHP.
The context: Citi analysts said the upgrade was due to the "depth of the valuation discount" of Fortescue stock, rather than their "still cautious" iron ore outlook.
However, the analysts noted that despite remaining cautious on iron prices heading into a seasonally weaker second half, consensus iron ore pricing of US$100 ($150.97) per tonne in the 2025 calendar year "looks reasonable" given an expected reduction in high-cost production to offset new tonnes to the seaborne market.
At Citi's forecast FY25 iron ore price of US$103 per tonne, Fortescue's dividend yield is 5.1% at a 50% payout ratio would reduce to 3.2% at a US$90 per tonne price point.
The source: Citi research
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If you watch the latest Kohler video he says watch out if Treasury forecasts are correct. $70 iron ore price predicted.
 
Knobby22 said:
If you watch the latest Kohler video he says watch out if Treasury forecasts are correct. $70 iron ore price predicted.
Click to expand...
Anything is possible but I don't trust the media on this one, IO got down to the mid $80s during the worst of Covid and then they predicted a huge blow up with Evergrand that never happened. Everyone is still sending loads of IO over and the production is there but moved to different sectors of the market which may not be as profitable and sending the price a bit lower. Most of the data I've seen is lagging so it's difficult to gauge where things really are.

Happy to hear other people's thoughts.


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TimeISmoney said:
Anything is possible but I don't trust the media on this one, IO got down to the mid $80s during the worst of Covid and then they predicted a huge blow up with Evergrand that never happened. Everyone is still sending loads of IO over and the production is there but moved to different sectors of the market which may not be as profitable and sending the price a bit lower. Most of the data I've seen is lagging so it's difficult to gauge where things really are.

Happy to hear other people's thoughts.


View attachment 182819
View attachment 182820
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The trouble i see with io is we are moving from this Chinese RE mostly demand to a more industrial/economy focussed demand.via China but linked to global economy demand...and so heavily affected by western recession,while supplies are plentiful in many cheaper than Australia mining places: africa,china, Brazil
Not much room for fmg in that context
 
Knobby22 said:
If you watch the latest Kohler video he says watch out if Treasury forecasts are correct. $70 iron ore price predicted.
Click to expand...
If you can point to a time where the treasury has been correct on Iron Ore price in the last 10 years I would be surprised, they predictions are always extremely conservative, as they should be.

But, $70 Iron Ore for 12 months wouldn’t be bad for FMG, what is important for long term holders is the average Iron Ore price over the next 10 years.

If it spends a year at $130 and a year at $70 it averages $100, which is great.

During my holding period Iron Ore price has ranged from $35 to $220, which meant some times dividends where low and sometimes dividends where extremely high, but on average the dividends were fantastic.

The only people that care about daily movement are either he people looking to sell or traders, if it’s part of your long term portfolio just ing ore the daily movements and read the annual and half yearly reports and collect dividends.
 
qldfrog said:
Not much room for fmg in that context
Click to expand...

Well let’s see… FMG is was $17.01 when you made this post, let’s check back in 12 months and see what it returns in cap gain and divs, compared to the market average return, or if you like you can name share you think will beat it.

My prediction, is that from this level of $17.01 in 1yr - 5yrs FMG will beat the index by a lot.

(I am holding fmg to back my opinion, maybe you should go short for 12 months frog, or are you all talk again?)
 
qldfrog said:
The trouble i see with io is we are moving from this Chinese RE mostly demand to a more industrial/economy focussed demand.via China but linked to global economy demand...and so heavily affected by western recession,while supplies are plentiful in many cheaper than Australia mining places: africa,china, Brazil
Not much room for fmg in that context
Click to expand...
Global companies are fleeing Africa like the plague, it's too unstable to make consistent profit results. Until I see a large amount of shorts I'm just going to call it a normal iron cycle. Australia still has relatively low IO production costs and transport costs to China.




Value Collector said:
Well let’s see… FMG is was $17.01 when you made this post, let’s check back in 12 months and see what it returns in cap gain and divs, compared to the market average return, or if you like you can name share you think will beat it.

My prediction, is that from this level of $17.01 in 1yr - 5yrs FMG will beat the index by a lot.

(I am holding fmg to back my opinion, maybe you should go short for 12 months frog, or are you all talk again?)
Click to expand...
Have to go back and look into net profits but if Citi rated the price target for FMG around the $21 dollars, FMG was still paying Divs around $1/ share at $20. If the SP were doomed to go under the $15 range I would imagine the shorters jumping on it like a kid running into a candy store.
 
the 'relativity thematic' , 'gotta do something' players are talking cheap , cheep.
.
...Fortescue has had a 41 per cent decline since the start of the year, outpacing a retreat in iron ore peers BHP and Rio Tinto, which have fallen 21 per cent and 19 per cent respectively in 2024.

b80851803543815011dbc72299288112c97119cc.jpg


The shares have been weighed down by falling iron ore prices, which were down as much as 30 per cent this year on slowing global growth and waning demand from China’s property sector.

Fund managers .. and brokers are turning bullish on .. Fortescue, despite the slumping iron ore price weighing heavily on the longtime ASX pariah.
Click to expand...
In the last two weeks, four equity research firms – Citi, Morningstar, JPMorgan and Morgans Financial – have upgraded their outlook for the iron ore giant, all citing Fortescue’s beaten-up share price as attractive for investors...
Click to expand...
.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
the 'relativity thematic' , 'gotta do something' players are talking cheap , cheep.
.
...Fortscue has had a 41 per cent decline since the start of the year, outpacing a retreat in iron ore peers BHP and Rio Tinto, which have fallen 21 per cent and 19 per cent respectively in 2024.

View attachment 182867

The shares have been weighed down by falling iron ore prices, which was down as much as 30 per cent this year on slowing global growth and waning demand from China’s property sector.




.
Click to expand...
I guess it is one of those "maybe it will fall further" stocks @Dona Ferentes that in retrospect one says "I shouldn't have been so greedy".

Thanks for the post. I might have a look to add more to the SMSF tomorrow.

gg
 
Fund managers .. and brokers are turning bullish on .. Fortescue, despite the slumping iron ore price weighing heavily on the longtime ASX pariah.

Fortescue (FMG) Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $15.50

TimeISmoney said:
Global companies are fleeing Africa like the plague, it's too unstable to make consistent profit results.
Click to expand...

Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX: IVN) Kamoa-Kakula copper mine, the world’s third-largest, has reached stage three commercial production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the company said Monday.
The new concentrator had previously started production just over two months ago, shortly after its construction was completed ahead of schedule at the end of May.
 

Why Chris Kourtis just sold BHP and bought Fortescue​

Aug 20, 2024 – 9.00am

Fund managers including Ellerston Capital’s Chris Kourtis and brokers are turning bullish on Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue, despite the slumping iron ore price weighing heavily on the longtime ASX pariah.

In the last two weeks, four equity research firms – Citi, Morningstar, JPMorgan and Morgans Financial – have upgraded their outlook for the iron ore giant, all citing Fortescue’s beaten-up share price as attractive for investors.

Likewise, Mr Kourtis, portfolio manager at Ellerston Capital, told investors this month that he had switched out the fund’s holding in BHP for a stake in Fortescue, noting that the latter had fallen much harder than its peers this year.
 

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