Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

FMG - Fortescue Ltd

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Value Collector said:
But that’s the best place for it, atleast that’s where I keep mine ?,
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i was planning to keep several companies in that bottom drawer , including FMG , but things in certain companies are changing , sure there is liable to be some boring ever-greens there ( like say CSR , BKW and SOL ) but not as many as i was hoping .

there is a time to be agile , and a time to be patient good luck making the correct choices
 
Gone as Well.

Happy to get back in. This really is a sell at its peak stock rather than a buy and hold.
 
divs4ever said:
i was planning to keep several companies in that bottom drawer , including FMG , but things in certain companies are changing , sure there is liable to be some boring ever-greens there ( like say CSR , BKW and SOL ) but not as many as i was hoping .

there is a time to be agile , and a time to be patient good luck making the correct choices
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Thanks @divs4ever

FMG for me has become a trading stock, although to be honest I've only bought and sold it over the last 3 years.

I've had some big bets via my SMSF which luckily have paid off buying only around the lower line on the accompanying chart and selling at the other two lines. When I say around, not ever buying or selling at the lowest or highest price.

FMG has now reached the stage where the prospect of divies is outweighed by the risk of very large capital losses, so I feel comfortable. Should FMG keep charging up ( I sold before it reached $20 just recently in the mid to high $19's ) I will not be buying in.

As others have mentioned you can carry too much Iron in your saddlebags if you also hold BHP and RIO.

FMG.png


gg
 
UMike said:
Gone as Well.

Happy to get back in. This really is a sell at its peak stock rather than a buy and hold.
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I am not sure about that, being paid 10% while we wait for a 100% capital gain screams buy and hold to me.

It’s funny how a 5% Div stock, with maybe potential for 5% capital gain per year can be considered a buy and hold (which it is).

But just because a stock price is a bit more volatile, it gets written off as a trading stock even though the potential gains are huge.

I would much rather a bumpy 15% return than a steady 10%
 
sptrawler said:
If there is one constant with shares, it is everyone has a different take on them and the very reason there is usually always a buyer for every seller.

I do hold and agree with the sentiments presented, they all have merit.
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I am of the same opinion. I am watching as Andrew Forrester invests our money in green energy programs that are unfortanely funded by the government. I am always leery when the pathway to profitability is dependent upon government handouts. 10% of the profit along with the management spending time on the green initiative push is a huge burden for any company.
 
dat111 said:
I am of the same opinion. I am watching as Andrew Forrester invests our money in green energy programs that are unfortanely funded by the government. I am always leery when the pathway to profitability is dependent upon government handouts. 10% of the profit along with the management spending time on the green initiative push is a huge burden for any company.
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There is only so much that can be invested into Iron Ore, so they need to find a new business to diversify, energy is a nice big industry to invest in.

Let’s see how it turns out, worst case we end up with a bunch of renewable energy infrastructure that we can use ourselves, best case in 20 years FMG’s energy business is bigger that Saudi Aramco
 
Value Collector said:
There is only so much that can be invested into Iron Ore, so they need to find a new business to diversify, energy is a nice big industry to invest in.

Let’s see how it turns out, worst case we end up with a bunch of renewable energy infrastructure that we can use ourselves, best case in 20 years FMG’s energy business is bigger that Saudi Aramco
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Agree... There is only so much that can be invested into Iron Ore. My issue is that I am not sure that I would invest in renewable green energy infrastructure. I can't get the math to work out unless the government is heavily involved. I have been involved in both solar and wind projects for the past 15 years and they would not exist without government funding...
 
dat111 said:
Agree... There is only so much that can be invested into Iron Ore. My issue is that I am not sure that I would invest in renewable green energy infrastructure. I can't get the math to work out unless the government is heavily involved. I have been involved in both solar and wind projects for the past 15 years and they would not exist without government funding...
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Things are changing, the world needs energy, and it increasingly doesn’t want to get it from fossil fuels.

Even if you don’t believe in climate change there is very good economic reasons to move away from fossil fuels.
 
Value Collector said:
Things are changing, the world needs energy, and it increasingly doesn’t want to get it from fossil fuels.

Even if you don’t believe in climate change there is very good economic reasons to move away from fossil fuels.
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I believe you are referring to the first world developed countries rather than the third, the former being a very small proportion of humanity.

Having once observed a conga line of about one hundred unfortunates at a relatively unmanned border between two sh*thole countries illegally lugging cans of fuel the ICE is still the most effective engine for the majority of our cousins worldwide.

Wars and hunger are ever present and until we can provide a cost effective easily transportable fuel or energy source for the third world we are merely chipping away at the edges.

Hydrogen ain't it, no matter what Twiggy spouts.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
I believe you are referring to the first world developed countries rather than the third, the former being a very small proportion of humanity.

Having once observed a conga line of about one hundred unfortunates at a relatively unmanned border between two sh*thole countries illegally lugging cans of fuel the ICE is still the most effective engine for the majority of our cousins worldwide.

Wars and hunger are ever present and until we can provide a cost effective easily transportable fuel or energy source for the third world we are merely chipping away at the edges.

Hydrogen ain't it, no matter what Twiggy spouts.

gg
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Fossil fuels will be important for a long while, but their global market share will decrease.

The western world is smaller in number, but we are huge when it comes to our proportion of energy consumption, especially if you include China.

Just as it makes sense for Australians to go renewable, so I will it make sense for the less developed countries.

Hydrogen is the be all and end all for either the world or Fortescue, it’s just part of the solution.

FMG is focusing on electrifying everything that can be electrified, and the where it makes sense it will develop hydrogen.

This isn’t a case of hydrogen vs electrification, both will be the winners, the loser is going to be traditional fossil fuels.

This doesn’t mean I am rushing to sell my Woodside shares, oils and gas wells will still be great little annuity style investments during the transition. But management need to be careful with each billion dollars they deploy into fossil fuels, to be sure that the market is going to be there over the expected annuity life of each well.
 
Value Collector said:
Fossil fuels will be important for a long while, but their global market share will decrease.

The western world is smaller in number, but we are huge when it comes to our proportion of energy consumption, especially if you include China.

Just as it makes sense for Australians to go renewable, so I will it make sense for the less developed countries.

Hydrogen is the be all and end all for either the world or Fortescue, it’s just part of the solution.

FMG is focusing on electrifying everything that can be electrified, and the where it makes sense it will develop hydrogen.

This isn’t a case of hydrogen vs electrification, both will be the winners, the loser is going to be traditional fossil fuels.

This doesn’t mean I am rushing to sell my Woodside shares, oils and gas wells will still be great little annuity style investments during the transition. But management need to be careful with each billion dollars they deploy into fossil fuels, to be sure that the market is going to be there over the expected annuity life of each well.
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Austerity is a fickal mistress. The debt being being generated by developed countries is a shell game and will come crashing down eventually. The US's national debt is 121.85% of GDP... Australia's national debt is 48.39% of GDP. When austerity hits... green energy will be hit hard.
 
dat111 said:
Austerity is a fickal mistress. The debt being being generated by developed countries is a shell game and will come crashing down eventually. The US's national debt is 121.85% of GDP... Australia's national debt is 48.39% of GDP. When austerity hits... green energy will be hit hard.
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How so?

If you own solar panels and they are steadily producing energy for you every day, how are you going to be hit hard?

The people that own solar panels will be more resilient than those that don’t.

And that’s going to be the same for businesses that source their energy from their own solar and wind turbines.
 
Value Collector said:
How so?

If you own solar panels and they are steadily producing energy for you every day, how are you going to be hit hard?

The people that own solar panels will be more resilient than those that don’t.

And that’s going to be the same for businesses that source their energy from their own solar and wind turbines.
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A quick look at google shows companies that have closed or gone bankrupt here is a few quick ones as examples... Also, I am in the hydraulic field. My involvement is selling hydraulic power units and actuators to wind power and solar power plants along with providing service and repair. I service all hydraulic systems and thought that being involved in wind and solar was a good ideal... A good portion of the solar panels are moved with hydraulic cylinders and just about all of the wind turbine blades pitch are controlled with hydraulic cylinders... the gear boxes are hydraulic motors in wind turbines... A good many of the wind plants are no longer operating and the cost to repair exceeds the value of the energy they produce...

2009 to 2010

Bankrupt, closed, acquired


2011

Bankrupt, closed


Acquisition, sale


2012


Bankrupt, closed

2015​

  • Enecsys (microinverters) bankrupt -- Enecsys raised more than $55 million in VC from investors including Wellington Partners, NES Partners, Good Energies and Climate Change Capital Private Equity for its microinverter technology.
  • QBotix (trackers) closed -- QBotix had a two-axis solar tracker system where the motors, instead of being installed two per tracker, were moved around by a rail-mounted robot that adjusted each tracker every 40 minutes. But while QBotix was trying to gain traction, single-axis solar trackers were also evolving and driving down cost. QBotix raised more than $19.5 million from Firelake, NEA, DFJ JAIC, Siemens Ventures, E.ON and Iberdrola.
  • Solar-Fabrik (c-Si) bankrupt -- German module builder
  • Soitec (CPV) closed -- France's Soitec, one of the last companies with a hope of commercializing concentrating photovoltaic technology, abandoned its solar business. Soitec had approximately 75 megawatts' worth of CPV projects in the ground.
  • TSMC (CIGS) closed -- TSMC Solar ceased manufacturing operations, as "TSMC believes that its solar business is no longer economically sustainable." Last year, TSMC Solar posted a champion module efficiency of 15.7 percent with its Stion-licensed technology.

  1. Evergreen Solar ($24 million)*
  2. SpectraWatt ($500,000)*
  3. Solyndra ($535 million)*
  4. Beacon Power ($69 million)*
  5. AES’s subsidiary Eastern Energy ($17.1 million)
  6. Nevada Geothermal ($98.5 million)
  7. SunPower ($1.5 billion)
  8. First Solar ($1.46 billion)
  9. Babcock and Brown ($178 million)
  10. EnerDel’s subsidiary Ener1 ($118.5 million)*
  11. Amonix ($5.9 million)
  12. National Renewable Energy Lab ($200 million)
  13. Fisker Automotive ($528 million)
  14. Abound Solar ($374 million)*
  15. A123 Systems ($279 million)*
  16. Willard and Kelsey Solar Group ($6 million)
  17. Johnson Controls ($299 million)
  18. Schneider Electric ($86 million)
  19. Brightsource ($1.6 billion)
  20. ECOtality ($126.2 million)
  21. Raser Technologies ($33 million)*
  22. Energy Conversion Devices ($13.3 million)*
  23. Mountain Plaza, Inc. ($2 million)*
  24. Olsen’s Crop Service and Olsen’s Mills Acquisition Company ($10 million)*
  25. Range Fuels ($80 million)*
  26. Thompson River Power ($6.4 million)*
  27. Stirling Energy Systems ($7 million)*
  28. LSP Energy ($2.1 billion)*
  29. UniSolar ($100 million)*
  30. Azure Dynamics ($120 million)*
  31. GreenVolts ($500,000)
  32. Vestas ($50 million)
  33. LG Chem’s subsidiary Compact Power ($150 million)
  34. Nordic Windpower ($16 million)*
  35. Navistar ($10 million)
  36. Satcon ($3 million)*
*Denotes companies that have filed for bankruptcy
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dat111 said:
A quick look at google shows companies that have closed or gone bankrupt here is a few quick ones as e
Click to expand...
or more appropriate for FMG:
AGL writting off 2 billions of wind farms just in last february...
I know, it is different, AGL went too early etc etc LOL So different

What will happen: economic crisis will hit (they always come at one stage especially for such a common commodity .. :) as Iron;
Price collapses, FMG will have to sell or takeover/shared ownership; new owners will send forensic accounting teams and whole lala dream will be written off , unless he can pull a "taken over by gov" scheme (aka taxpayers are screwed instead) if FMG is lucky to still have some watermelons in power by then.
IMHO, FMG should really split to ensure shareholders can make proper decisions anyway, I do not own anymore
 
dat111 said:
A quick look at google shows companies that have closed or gone bankrupt here is a few quick ones as examples... Also, I am in the hydraulic field. My involvement is selling hydraulic power units and actuators to wind power and solar power plants along with providing service and repair. I service all hydraulic systems and thought that being involved in wind and solar was a good ideal... A good portion of the solar panels are moved with hydraulic cylinders and just about all of the wind turbine blades pitch are controlled with hydraulic cylinders... the gear boxes are hydraulic motors in wind turbines... A good many of the wind plants are no longer operating and the cost to repair exceeds the value of the energy they produce...

2009 to 2010

Bankrupt, closed, acquired


2011

Bankrupt, closed


Acquisition, sale


2012


Bankrupt, closed

2015​

  • Enecsys (microinverters) bankrupt -- Enecsys raised more than $55 million in VC from investors including Wellington Partners, NES Partners, Good Energies and Climate Change Capital Private Equity for its microinverter technology.
  • QBotix (trackers) closed -- QBotix had a two-axis solar tracker system where the motors, instead of being installed two per tracker, were moved around by a rail-mounted robot that adjusted each tracker every 40 minutes. But while QBotix was trying to gain traction, single-axis solar trackers were also evolving and driving down cost. QBotix raised more than $19.5 million from Firelake, NEA, DFJ JAIC, Siemens Ventures, E.ON and Iberdrola.
  • Solar-Fabrik (c-Si) bankrupt -- German module builder
  • Soitec (CPV) closed -- France's Soitec, one of the last companies with a hope of commercializing concentrating photovoltaic technology, abandoned its solar business. Soitec had approximately 75 megawatts' worth of CPV projects in the ground.
  • TSMC (CIGS) closed -- TSMC Solar ceased manufacturing operations, as "TSMC believes that its solar business is no longer economically sustainable." Last year, TSMC Solar posted a champion module efficiency of 15.7 percent with its Stion-licensed technology.
Click to expand...

I think you could find an even longer list of fossil fuel companies that have gone bankrupt, think of all the oil and gas explorers, drillers companies etc even petrol stations etc

Just because you can find examples of bankruptcy in a given industry does not mean that the industry is destined for failure, look at the car industry as an example, I think there was 3000 car companies in the USA that went bankrupt in the first 50 years of the automobile, off course that didn't stop Tesla.

------------------
Not to mention that most on your list are either installers which like builders will come and go, or companies trailing new tech which offcourse is fickle.

Neither is evidence that sound tried and tested green energy infrastructure is going anywhere, once its installed its basically free energy, its not like I am going to go and rip the solar panels up my roof just because interest rates go up or unemployment rises.
 
The thing is IMO, at the moment there is an opportunity to diversify and Twiggy is going for it, whether it works out or not will have zero to do with Twiggy.
It will be how committed the Govt's of the world are into making it work and that wont be known for several decades, meanwhile there is a lot of money to be made along the journey.
I only bought FMG because they have diversified and I do hope FFI is eventually spun out of FMG, which my guess is it will happen, once FFI can stand on its own two feet.
To me it is a bit like buying WES for $40 and then they spun out COL, which are now about $16 and WES are still $40, a no brainer really IMO.

Whether a person agrees or disagrees with the viability of renewables, fossil fuel generation can't compete, so the fossil fueled generators are closing down, that is completely taken oos, blown up, trashed, never to return.
So as the limitations of renewables become more and more obvious, which will happen, more and more money will have to be thrown at renewables until we have an electricity system that works. At the moment we are in the early stages and any viable clean energy source is going to be assisted, because there is going to be no other option, as can be seen by the panic going on over energy prices at the moment.

Twiggy has just bought the biggest renewable energy generator in Australia, he can decide who he sells that renewable energy to, FFI or into the grid, meanwhile he has the renewable credentials now to actually say I'm using some of it to make green H2 with AGL.
I can't see, at this point in time, how he can lose. In 5 years time, I will re consider, ATM IMO we are on the upswing of the bellshaped renewable curve not the down swing.
Currently we are throwing heaps of money at low energy density easy to deploy renewables, when that finishes the cry will be to install more clean energy with a smaller footprint but a higher energy density, so that is when GT's running on or co firing H2 will come into play, when that reaches saturation, reality will hit and hard choices will have to be made. Until then, ride the wave IMO.
Just my two cents worth.
 
qldfrog said:
AGL writting off 2 billions of wind farms just in last february...
https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2021/02/04/wind-farm-contracts-prove-costly-for-agl/ust I know, it is different, AGL went too early etc etc LOL So different
Click to expand...

Did you actually read the story beyond the headlines Qldfrog ?

Those wind farms are still going strong producing abundant clean cheap energy. The current owners of the wind farms are also doing very well thank you. There is absolutely no way FMG would take such a financial bath on their renewable energy projects

So how did AGL "Lose" $2B on the deal. ? Read the story in full.
______________________________________________________________
As for FMG going broke because of a collapse in iron ore prices ? The current costs of its ore are around $17 a ton. Current returns are $100 plus a ton. They are the lowest cost iron ore operater in the market. Almost every other producer would have to fold before FMG bites the dust. FFI is also a subsidiary to FMG but any liabilities held by FFI stay with them . That is the insurance to protect the main operation

reneweconomy.com.au

How AGL lost nearly $2 billion from its early push into wind farms

How did AGL manage to lose nearly $2 billion on its early wind farm investments? And can it avoid a repeat as it manages the survival and exit of its coal and gas assets.
reneweconomy.com.au reneweconomy.com.au
 

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