FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[basilio]

FMG’s exisiting Iron Ore business is easily worth more than $28 a share, so you are essentially getting what ever hydrogen business grows out of it for free if you buy in under $28.

I think VC has made the key point about FMG. The iron ore business is not going away. They are improving ore quality and reducing COP at a rapid rate of knots so net profits will improve in that business. The financing of FFI is 10% of FMG net profits and any dramas with FFI will stay with FFI so there seems little downside with FMG iron ore beyond concerns about competition.

There are clearly a multitude of engineering and energy projects associated with FFI. It will take some serious management skill to ensure they have sufficient engineering and financial capacity to keep the balls in the air. However the decision to make the Gladstone hydrogen electrolyser project the first funded project is very strategic. Obviously the product from this plant will form the capital basis for many other hydrogen projects. There will be some interesting pricing schedules I think when various FMG projects start buying plant from other FMG entities.

As far as I can see no one is putting a value on the hydrogen projects. However in couple of years this could/should radically change as the electroyser project is completed and comes on line and other hydrogen/renewable energy projects also go into construction mode. In that context FMG would be substantially revalued to reflect projected incomes.

 

[sptrawler]

FMG’s exisiting Iron Ore business is easily worth more than $28 a share, so you are essentially getting what ever hydrogen business grows out of it for free if you buy in under $28.

And is exactly the reason I bought in to FMG at $14.57, I have never held FMG before, but I like the change of direction.

 

[over9k]

And is exactly the reason I bought in to FMG at $14.57, I have never held FMG before, but I like the change of direction.

I was just about to ask if anyone bought in at the 14.xx point when all our trigger fingers were getting itchy.

 

[basilio]

I was just about to ask if anyone bought in at the 14.xx point when all our trigger fingers were getting itchy.

It was too good to miss. I did top up again.( Just wished I had held my fire at $18.. but 14.01 was good)

 

[dat111]

I was just about to ask if anyone bought in at the 14.xx point when all our trigger fingers were getting itchy.

I bought another 1250 shares

 

[Gunnerguy]

I think VC has made the key point about FMG. The iron ore business is not going away. They are improving ore quality and reducing COP at a rapid rate of knots so net profits will improve in that business. The financing of FFI is 10% of FMG net profits and any dramas with FFI will stay with FFI so there seems little downside with FMG iron ore beyond concerns about competition.

There are clearly a multitude of engineering and energy projects associated with FFI. It will take some serious management skill to ensure they have sufficient engineering and financial capacity to keep the balls in the air. However the decision to make the Gladstone hydrogen electrolyser project the first funded project is very strategic. Obviously the product from this plant will form the capital basis for many other hydrogen projects. There will be some interesting pricing schedules I think when various FMG projects start buying plant from other FMG entities.

As far as I can see no one is putting a value on the hydrogen projects. However in couple of years this could/should radically change as the electroyser project is completed and comes on line and other hydrogen/renewable energy projects also go into construction mode. In that context FMG would be substantially revalued to reflect projected incomes.

 

[Gunnerguy]

I STO some 16 Dec 13.5P 14 days ago as a covered call and looking good to keep the premium.
I also BTO April22 15.13C about 10 days ago (too much wine to remember) so looking good.
I have a long term holding and playing on some options to get more income.
Gunnerguy

 

[Smurf1976]

I was just about to ask if anyone bought in at the 14.xx point when all our trigger fingers were getting itchy.

I bought some but I paid $15.xx not $14.xx

Those who bought at $14 were a bit sharper there....

 

[over9k]

Yeah, I'm now getting FOMO which has historically been a pretty good sell signal for me

 

[spratty84]

I was just about to ask if anyone bought in at the 14.xx point when all our trigger fingers were getting

 

[spratty84]

I bought 800 at 14.52

 

[againsthegrain]

Looking at my account averaged down 3 times at 14s

Avg:14.0950 290
Avg:14.8800 368
Avg:14.0500 355

 

[joeno]

I had limit buy order at $12 which never hit but no regrets. Still got most of my shares from 2015. Buy-n-hold.

Mining is Australia's most important industry and our "competitive advantage" in the world. Not banks or tech.

FMG should be a top 3 ASX company (with BHP and Rio) by the mid 2020s. With a small chance of being the Top 1 ASX company.

 

[DrBourse]

As expected FMG is continuing its ST Upward Trend, SP is currently just above $18.00.
MFI (p 95) is continuine upward, CCI (p 108 & 109) should begin to rise again later this afternoon on tomorrow at the latest.

Remember, that could change at any time, I will be watching my Daily & Tick Charts looking for any obvious signs of a pullback.

I could take some more profits about now, but I doubt that the "$500 Traders" will hit FMG again today, so it's a hold for me atm.
Market Depth is in Holders favour.

So, I will prob bail @ $18.85.
Cheers.
DrB

 

[DrBourse]

From the Chart below you can see that Profit Takers are hitting just after each new High.
Next High I will join them, taking just over $2500 profit, the rejoin the feast on the following LOW.

 

[DrBourse]

I'd forgotten how difficult it is to trade & to document each move, the trade eventually slips out of my control.
Next time, and that's IF there is a next time, it will be a 'paper trade' only

 

[DrBourse]

Did you realise that the Market Depth can also show Support & Resistance levels.
This next snapshot shows Support @ $18.00 & Resistance @ $18.12.

 

[DrBourse]

From the Chart below you can see that Profit Takers are hitting just after each new High.
Next High I will join them, taking just over $2500 profit, the rejoin the feast on the following LOW.
View attachment 133376

Nah, Missed it, I was one New High too slow.
Remember my Buy Price was $17.25213, and the current SP is $17.90 .

 

[Sharkman]

don't know how i missed this earlier, but that gap from 3 sep - 6 sep is purely from it going ex that huge 2.11 div ie. if it weren't for the div, the 6 sep open would have been right on the 3 sep close. does it still carry the same weight that a non-ex div gap otherwise would, given that it's caused by a known and predictable event, rather than from a shift in sentiment or an unexpected news event?

genuine question... i don't consider myself much of a chartist, and i'm not really a day trader either (i mostly sell weekly to monthly options) so i'd be interested to hear how others would interpret it.

 

[DrBourse]

Hi Shark,
M8, A Gap is still a Gap regardless of the reasons - in fact a Gap caused by a Dividend probably caries more weight than a Gap caused by a rogue trade, or a sell-off/spike caused by rumours, or as you mentioned, an unexpected news event.
I will mention however, that an Ex Div Gap probably won't take long to fill, unless there are other underlying issues.
see pages 203 to 212.

Remember that not all stocks have a SP Drop on Dividend Ex Dates.

Cheers.
DrB