The price rise so far today kind of blows a few theories out of the way! Maybe the chart theories simply dont apply to a company that is very uniquely placed - ie a new miner with significant resources with a confirmed contract with China? Perhaps in a years time the charts might tell the story, or even later this year, but not just yet.
MRC & Co.
The bounce in the US may well disrupt the trend, yet today the stock has closed at the lows again. The important information is the 'effort' that was excerpted. Effort = volume and todays ultra high volume means a lot of effort. So, if we saw a lot of effort, a lot of transactions, and the end result was a close on the low, then it suggests sellers remain in control.
The thing to remember, and importantly, is that I know when I'm wrong. Those that bought MQG at $90 looking for $110, ZFX at $16 looking for $10, PEM at $4 looking for $5, NWS at $30 looking for $35, BNB at $25 looking for $40, may consider that and the inadequacies of fundamental valuations. Its not being wrong that damages one's capital. Its staying wrong that wipes them out.
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
I completely agree Nick. I learnt the second half the hard way, not setting tight enough stops and having half my yearly profits wiped out. Lucky, my trading phsycology allowed me to cut those losses and get out (have to be an idiot not too on such strong downward momentum). Have to be an idiot not to recognise this momentum earlier, but hey, you live and you learn.
I also agree on the FMG example, doesnt look good, the bears sure ate up the bulls.
Divergence from materials to financials will aid the downtrend of FMG, though inflationary pressures and good news from China would send this in the opposite direction (however, this would be more a medium-term effect), and as you know, all will be seen in price trend.
Question is now: Where to over the next few trading days.....continuation of momentum or profit taking/further capitulation of the bulls. I will be glued VERY closely.
Disclaimer: I do not own FMG, nor am I shorting.
MRC & Co.
The bounce in the US may well disrupt the trend, yet today the stock has closed at the lows again. The important information is the 'effort' that was excerpted. Effort = volume and todays ultra high volume means a lot of effort. So, if we saw a lot of effort, a lot of transactions, and the end result was a close on the low, then it suggests sellers remain in control.
The thing to remember, and importantly, is that I know when I'm wrong. Those that bought MQG at $90 looking for $110, ZFX at $16 looking for $10, PEM at $4 looking for $5, NWS at $30 looking for $35, BNB at $25 looking for $40, may consider that and the inadequacies of fundamental valuations. Its not being wrong that damages one's capital. Its staying wrong that wipes them out.
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
tigerboi in particular - stick your shovel, you will be eating your own words come may shipment.. and do some research please re - the railway construction try and save yourself some embarrassment
if you don't understand research - have a look at their investor presentations... FMG has 40,000 km² tenement, biggest in australia, they still have another billion so iron ore in reserve..
so far the skeptics have it all wrong .... but continue to be skeptical caus once your skepticism is defied you will be buying into it the stock just like your fellow skeptic friends
edit - what gets me is why do people like you continue to post such remarks?
My understanding is the mine is about 260-270 kms from port(see map in tolhurst research) so thats roughly a 540km round trip,as for 15 roadtrains it will have to be 30 to shift that amount of fe,you wont get a permit to go to port as MMX is only allowed 147t gross for 100t per trip,so work it out how much needs to go by road? 1mt at 100t a truck,10,000 trips required,maximum per driver a day is 2,did someone say 1mt in a month?333 trips a day,nope not in a month,too many drivers & trucks required...sorry it seems its 4500t a day,45 trips a day,trucks do 3 trips but drivers only allowed to do 2 as per work/drivehours,can be done sure but the best for the 4500t scenario is to go a little bit more as you will get many break downs,i would go 20 roadtrains & 40 drivers in a shuttle opreation...This is why i got out at $50 as i understood from my transport experience the rail would not be on time,if you want to see a heap of number crunching on the hole FMG set up,go on their website to brokers reports,here:http://www.fmgl.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1322&PageName=BBY Research
Here is the best,it even tells you how many flies are on twiggys back when he lobs at cloud break!...
cheers....tb
The price rise so far today kind of blows a few theories out of the way! Maybe the chart theories simply dont apply to a company that is very uniquely placed - ie a new miner with significant resources with a confirmed contract with China? Perhaps in a years time the charts might tell the story, or even later this year, but not just yet.
I think from a forward perspective on the FMG sp with still the market setiment & volatility coupled with the logistics setbacks in the construction of the railway,there looks to be opportunities to get into FMG at sub $6.00. As the jigsaw has yet to come together inparticular the may foos where i can see if twiggy has to get on the shovel as he promised,FMG is going to get slammed,i reckon he needed another 3 months due to the cyclone
agro it seems you failed anger management,me i passed even though i slept through every session...as for research see the above posts posted only just the other day,as for missing out if you had done your own research you would have known that i sold FMG at $50.00,if taking 100% at $50.00 is missing out then it was a great miss!by the way i am not looking to get back into FMG as i did very good already,my current interests is in the transport side of the operation. you shouldnt let emotion get the better of you as it will cloud what judgement you may have,the only thing ive been skeptical about is the very tight deadline of foos in may,i work in the transport industry & i know all about ill timed set backs,i do sydney-melbourne in 8 hours 45 mins,sydney-brisbane in 11 hours,sydney-adelaide in 15 hours..i run overnight express freight to those cities in a 62.5 tonne gross b /double,if i get just 1 unexpected setback like the highway being blocked then my schedule is kaput,its called time sensitive freight.FMG i believed set too tight a schedule without taking into account the possibility of an act of god like a cyclone,thats why i believe they wont make the deadline,while i believe i first brought up the subject of the use of roadtrains to get the ore to ship,it has not been a secret that FMG may not make the may foos,so you could look at it as a good buying opportunity as its fall to sub $5.00 recently was,& lastly dont try & treat me like a a fool..also if you ask joe nicely he might show you a FMG post of mine that was moderated ages ago for predicting that FMG will hit 3 figures... numbskull you do your research...
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