FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[tech/a]

Ah
I see a pre market release of their Quarterly activities report.
Could explain the interest now we will see how it is seen on
release.

 

[Ann]

Ah
I see a pre market release of their Quarterly activities report.
Could explain the interest now we will see how it is seen on
release.

It appears the price hike in FMG and other iron ore stocks is related to the Vale dam disaster in Brazil. They have introduced large production cuts. I have been reading about Vale every day since the disaster and didn't connect the risk to the Iron Ore price, so need to improve my FA!
This has made the price of iron ore rise dramatically. I have been trying to find a chart for Iron Ore inventories but no luck so far. If the inventories are high the hike may be short lived, just don't know.
This is a current price chart for Iron Ore.

 

[tech/a]

Ann

Good pick up
I note price was at resistance in April when Iron was a similar price.

 

[tech/a]

Having said that.

If we were trading purely from the chart we
wouldn't have to know WHY.
We only care that price is moving in our direction
and we look for reasons to stay in or pull out
of the trade.

We just trade the analysis.

 

[tech/a]

Very interesting day.
another very high volume day with FMG
creeping higher to close on its highs.

The 15 min chart shows a diminishing volume M/A
I saw today as a distribution into strength.
But I maybe wrong with the declining volume possibly
indicating a lower supply. I doubt this as price was contained
buyers didn't have to look much higher to get a fill.

Next resistance is around $6 but I doubt it will make it.

So while Im out I wont be re entering until I see a pattern form
which will be part of the pullback I think FMG will have to have
Sooner than later.

 

[Ann]

Ann

Good pick up
I note price was at resistance in April when Iron was a similar price.

Thanks tech/a, I have noticed stocks tend to mirror their commodity prices, which is not very surprising really.

If we were trading purely from the chart we
wouldn't have to know WHY.

True but I like to know why stuff happens. I find the markets very interesting.

 

[tech/a]

By the time we find a reason most of the move has gone
If indeed we ever REALLY “know”

 

[Ann]

By the time we find a reason most of the move has gone
If indeed we ever REALLY “know”

No, if I had been smarter with FA I saw the Vale disaster in Brazil mentioned on the weekend and saw it would take it off line for a while. I knew it was an iron ore company, I should have looked at its market weight. Had I been smarter I would have realized as it was such a major player being taken out, that would put pressure on the iron ore price, that would have made me less bearish regarding a pullback. I am sure a number of people would have had broker alerts on Monday, about it being a good trade because of the disaster.

 

[tech/a]

Ann

I don't know why you would even have to try and trade like this.
Whatever you do to trade nearly 100% correct is ALL you need.
Why waste your time with anything else?

 

[Ann]

Ann

I don't know why you would even have to try and trade like this.
Whatever you do to trade nearly 100% correct is ALL you need.
Why waste your time with anything else?

Because I believe you and I were right about FMG about to do a retrace tech/a, not that we will ever know for sure. It was on the Friday chart we made the call, the day before the accident, so no possibility of an indication for a rise on the chart. I don't like being wrong when I chart. Any time I fail, I want to know why. Then I want to get better at what I do. It is the reason I would never buy Qantas, stuff might happen with no prior warning.

 

[tech/a]

We are indeed different.
I have no expectation only
contingencies. If my anticipated trade doesn't pan out
I re adjust. Wrong is simply a cost of doing business.

In every case I'm wrong or right because of the anticipated
price action occurred or didn't occur. Buy Hold or Sell.

 

[Ann]

We are indeed different.
I have no expectation only
contingencies. If my anticipated trade doesn't pan out
I re adjust. Wrong is simply a cost of doing business.

In every case I'm wrong or right because of the anticipated
price action occurred or didn't occur. Buy Hold or Sell.

Clearly we both enjoy our approaches, I bet we will often agree as in FMG. However if I reckon something may not happen, I will give you a heads up so you can re-think a trade. Hope you will do the same for me?

 

[tech/a]

Done !

 

[Ann]

Done !

Good man!

 

[Ann]

For anyone interested in seeing footage of the Vale dam disaster here is some disturbing footage.

 

[Miner]

For anyone interested in seeing footage of the Vale dam disaster here is some disturbing footage.

Thanks for the footage. It is horrifying. No wonder in last few days three different head hunters approached me for PM roles of TSF and alike areas. All three represented reputed miners in Australia - listed as ASX 200.

 

[Ann]

Thanks for the footage. It is horrifying. No wonder in last few days three different head hunters approached me for PM roles of TSF and alike areas. All three represented reputed miners in Australia - listed as ASX 200.

That sounds great Miner, what does PM roles of TSF and alike areas mean?

 

[tech/a]

FMG powering along.
Very solid.
Approaching old resistance
A lot of demand supply is being
met easily.

See if there is a pullback at this level for another
possible trade.

 

[tech/a]

FMG now has a very solid volume base and has not found a level at which
price has found resistance. Volume is now dropping off as it rises. This indicates
supply is less and as such holding is preferred. So price rises without needing
to battle through supply. Demand is also less as interest at these prices wanes.

There is a topping pattern evident in lower time frames. I see $6.22 a critical level

 

[ducati916]

FMG now has a very solid volume base and has not found a level at which
price has found resistance. Volume is now dropping off as it rises. This indicates
supply is less and as such holding is preferred. So price rises without needing
to battle through supply. Demand is also less as interest at these prices wanes.

There is a topping pattern evident in lower time frames. I see $6.22 a critical level

For me, it would now be a short.

jog on
duc