FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[tech/a]

Happy to do this if I can find five at the moment.

Nothing around that takes your fancy Ann?

Don't have to be all at once---as they come up.

 

[Ann]

Nothing around that takes your fancy Ann?

Don't have to be all at once---as they come up.

Sorry tech/a, I got all fired up and found a couple, then I got side tracked with other stuff which rather pulled my attention away. There is a new and very complex thread I am trying to build and then today I veered again with some very interesting economic data charts I found. I think they may be very valuable indicators for the markets. Now I want to get a thread going for them. I will get there....I put up AIA so far. Very early days of course.

 

[Ann]

Nothing around that takes your fancy Ann?

Don't have to be all at once---as they come up.

NSR

 

[tech/a]

I think they may be very valuable indicators for the markets.

Ann if your currently getting close to 100% success rate with Vanilla T/A why on earth are you looking at other things???

So

AIA and NSR
Your analysis tells you what?

Ready, setty, go??

 

[Ann]

Ann if your currently getting close to 100% success rate with Vanilla T/A why on earth are you looking at other things???

So

AIA and NSR
Your analysis tells you what?

Ready, setty, go??

Not ready, setty, go. I wait for a support confirmation. I said I would enter on the area I described if I was happy with the markets. I am not happy with the markets. I don't short. I only trade long. I do not believe there is much long left in the markets.

I have already said tech/a, I am not happy with the markets. I keep saying this over and over. I only trade when I am happy with the markets. As the tide rises so do the ships, if I think there is going to be a feckin tsunami about to hit the markets, I am happy to sit on the sidelines. If I am wrong I have missed a very small proportion of the up market and I have my support and resistance lines on which I judge.

So I will say this one more time and hope reading comprehension will occur, because I do not believe the markets are in a healthy state I will not trade but I am simply describing how I would enter a stock if I was happy about the markets which I am not because I believe they are going to puke big time and have no desire to be diving around trying to save my capital.

 

[tech/a]

So your not happy with the markets so no long set up is going to be a trade.

What would alter your position to be confident in trading long again?

Do you feel all markets are going to puke at the onetime or just our market?
Is your analysis pointing to this big time puke? Here there and everywhere?

Can you show us?
(1) why your thinking financial vomit.
(2) what will need to happen to placate your current feeling?
Or is it a gut feel?

Just to be clear you don’t like the current market conditions for any long trades no matter how good they seem. ( Your view I think I get that )

 

[barney]

Well I still think it was a buy back at the low with high volume

I only trade Stocks under 10 cents so FMG is not even on my radar now days, but the 7th January was also definite later confirmation if looking for an entry ...… Gap up/break out of consolidation at $4.35

Chart still looks positive as well

 

[barney]

PS Just for the conversation, and in my humble opinion for what its worth ….

AIA looks to be better trading value on pullbacks so there may be a few cents to be gained buying the open above the current close, but I wouldn't be doing that ……

NSR has still shown no real "plan" technically and could easily go either way at the moment … also no trade for my money

PPS Above is based on Technicals only … Fundamentals may add more substance to the longer term story??

 

[Ann]

AIA looks to be better trading value on pullbacks so there may be a few cents to be gained buying the open above the current close, but I wouldn't be doing that ……

I think it looks weak and indicisive but that is just what I see Barney, thanks for the view, appreciated!

NSR has still shown no real "plan" technically and could easily go either way at the moment … also no trade for my money

I can feel strength here and it is working within my plan however I agree with you, either way.

 

[Miner]

My two cents with a humble apology.
This thread is for FMG. Now it became too technical for me because I could not see FMG on last few threads. Then AIA and NSR came.
Am I confused or our learned friends got sidetracked :
Disclaimer - DNH FMG, NSR, AIA as of 24 Jan 2019

 

[Ann]

So your not happy with the markets so no long set up is going to be a trade.

Correct.

What would alter your position to be confident in trading long again?

Responded here.

Do you feel all markets are going to puke at the onetime or just our market?
Is your analysis pointing to this big time puke? Here there and everywhere?

I havn't looked everywhere but so far every where I have looked looks like it is going to ****. I am working on a mountain of stuff at the moment and have seen heaps but I am trying to prioritize and get the most urgent things up first. I will try to put up more tomorrow.

Can you show us?
(1) why your thinking financial vomit.
(2) what will need to happen to placate your current feeling?
Or is it a gut feel?

1) and 2) I believe I have answered...or will have after tomorrow.
My gut is telling me to keep calm, and watch the markets. Screaming boo into the mirror is not helpful!

Just to be clear you don’t like the current market conditions for any long trades no matter how good they seem. ( Your view I think I get that )

Correct.

as a footnote..... to use a derogatory term such as 'vanilla charts' tends to make you look like you feel threatened. It is a girly ploy, avoid it. It is not worthy of a man.

 

[Ann]

My two cents with a humble apology.
This thread is for FMG. Now it became too technical for me because I could not see FMG on last few threads. Then AIA and NSR came.
Am I confused or our learned friends got sidetracked :
Disclaimer - DNH FMG, NSR, AIA as of 24 Jan 2019

You need to read back onto the last page Miner, sorry for the off topic.

 

[barney]

I could not see FMG on last few threads. Then AIA and NSR came.

Don't be disillusioned Miner ….. The brief reference to the other Stocks was part of a longer conversation between Tech and Ann …… All "technically" based so hopefully of some value in general even though not FMG.

Getting back to FMG however …. of the three charts just mentioned, it would be my pick of the bunch as at todays close …. tomorrow may tell a different story of course

 

[Ann]

Getting back to FMG however …. of the three charts just mentioned, it would be my pick of the bunch as at todays close …. tomorrow may tell a different story of course

Agree 100% barney, still looks like a darn good stock to me. Strong and decisive. I had intended to make it mine! It is a tasty morsel and if not now, maybe one day!

 

[tech/a]

Ann
Vanilla T/A is what you have shown you are using.
Support , Resistance, Channels, RSI etc it’s standard
Without exotics like VSA ,Elliot, Market Profile to name a few.

Your use of Vanilla T/A to return close to 100% success when you
Trade has me and I’m sure every serious T/A practitioner on the edge
Of their seat. I can’t wait to see your selections from entry to exit.
Your analysis from entry to exit and any commentary.

To watch any practitioner trade even 4 out of 5 to a profit let alone 18/20
( near 100% ) using nothing more than vanilla no frills T/A will inspire all
Technical traders. it will me!

You shouldn’t be offended.
Doing what you claim to be able to do is frankly amazing.

 

[tech/a]

A daily FMG chart with an interesting bar.
I expect a small pullback in a very bullish chart

 

[Ann]

Vanilla T/A is what you have shown you are using.
Support , Resistance, Channels, RSI etc it’s standard
Without exotics like VSA ,Elliot, Market Profile to name a few.

I use a few 'exotics' such as PVI (Positive Volume Indicator) to gauge the punters sentiment, I use EquiVolume to see where there is likely to be volume pressure, I look at the Heikin Ashi charts to gauge how strong the upward or downward movements are, I use fibonacci levels but I find they tend to be pretty much the same as my horizontal support and resistance lines, so a bit superfluous other than for confirmation. The EW is not really something I would use. I think I would be out of the stock before it resolved fully. I use to have MAs and stop loss on my charts but I found I tended to ignore them, so I dropped them. I can't get the Market Profile to work on IC, I would probably glance at that if I had the option.

Your use of Vanilla T/A to return close to 100% success when you
Trade has me and I’m sure every serious T/A practitioner on the edge
Of their seat. I can’t wait to see your selections from entry to exit.
Your analysis from entry to exit and any commentary.

It shouldn't be edge-of-seat stuff if one is properly trained in basic charting. Way, way back in the day, I was blessed to be trained by some amazing chartists on IC forum when it was a busy interesting place. We all pretty much used IC charts so it was easy to compare what they were doing. They were amazing traders and many of them shared their secrets. I watched, learned, asked questions, read lots of charting books, and practiced.

To watch any practitioner trade even 4 out of 5 to a profit let alone 18/20
( near 100% ) using nothing more than vanilla no frills T/A will inspire all
Technical traders. it will me!

I really hope I can offer something to someone to help them get an edge with their trading, that would be lovely.

You shouldn’t be offended.
Doing what you claim to be able to do is frankly amazing.

I don't think it is amazing, it is just practice. I try to practice everyday, whether I am trading or not. It is like playing a musical instrument, you need that hour or two a day of practice. If I have been sick for a while and not able to practice, I notice it takes its toll on my charting comprehension.

This is a chart with the rising support/resistance lines I drew on this chart. You will notice how the volumes react at certain points of support and resistance. This is always a good confirmation for me I have my supports and resistances on the correct levels as all the other traders. I also agree about a pullback, the rising resistance has failed to be broken too many times and now it looks weak. The volumes also confirm this.

 

[tech/a]

Thanks Ann
I’m looking forward to seeing it all put together
Vanilla and or Exotics
Near 100% success on long trades only is un heard of
I hope I see it in practice.

 

[Ann]

Thanks Ann
I’m looking forward to seeing it all put together
Vanilla and or Exotics
Near 100% success on long trades only is un heard of
I hope I see it in practice.

I shall do my best tech/a! I have never done it in public before. In real time trades, I never trade into a new stock more than one stock at a time, I like to give it 100% full focus. So this is a bit of a new experience trying to describe trading multiples at once. Doing the brain in a bit but whatever. I shall just give it my best shot.
No 100% success is not unheard of with the people I knew. I met many of the traders in person, we held meetings and get-togethers over a number of years. Many traded for a living without other jobs. A number of them told me how they did it. The day trading scalper style was exciting but I could see success only came with years of practice and getting to know a single stock and massive $ risk. The small stock penny dreadfuls was inside info, pump and dump from dealers. "If anyone asked how it was done, whisper in their ear "momentum"." Then there were the forex traders who grouped together in packs. I never got the pip thing. There were the old guys who had been doing it for years and said, get a plan, work on it until it works be patient and never enter a trade if the markets look wobbly. Check the news, check the international markets, check the indices and watch for major Economic Indicator releases. Then there were the wankers, the bullsh!t artists. I can pick those without meeting them. The meeting just confirms it. Sadly they tend to be the charismatic ones who do dreadful damage by suggesting trading is a snap and if you just listen to me I will tell you all the tricks and psychology you need to be a winner! We have all met them, they stick out like dog's balls. They are the losers, the insincere dipsticks who love to hear themselves talk. Like empty vessels, they make the most sound.

 

[ducati916]

I use a few 'exotics' such as PVI (Positive Volume Indicator) to gauge the punters sentiment, I use EquiVolume to see where there is likely to be volume pressure, I look at the Heikin Ashi charts to gauge how strong the upward or downward movements are, I use fibonacci levels but I find they tend to be pretty much the same as my horizontal support and resistance lines, so a bit superfluous other than for confirmation. The EW is not really something I would use. I think I would be out of the stock before it resolved fully. I use to have MAs and stop loss on my charts but I found I tended to ignore them, so I dropped them. I can't get the Market Profile to work on IC, I would probably glance at that if I had the option.



It shouldn't be edge-of-seat stuff if one is properly trained in basic charting. Way, way back in the day, I was blessed to be trained by some amazing chartists on IC forum when it was a busy interesting place. We all pretty much used IC charts so it was easy to compare what they were doing. They were amazing traders and many of them shared their secrets. I watched, learned, asked questions, read lots of charting books, and practiced.



I really hope I can offer something to someone to help them get an edge with their trading, that would be lovely.



I don't think it is amazing, it is just practice. I try to practice everyday, whether I am trading or not. It is like playing a musical instrument, you need that hour or two a day of practice. If I have been sick for a while and not able to practice, I notice it takes its toll on my charting comprehension.

This is a chart with the rising support/resistance lines I drew on this chart. You will notice how the volumes react at certain points of support and resistance. This is always a good confirmation for me I have my supports and resistances on the correct levels as all the other traders. I also agree about a pullback, the rising resistance has failed to be broken too many times and now it looks weak. The volumes also confirm this.

View attachment 91665

I will declare my bias upfront: I am with Tech in being a 50/50 advocate.

As such, I have a few issues to raise on this chart and analysis:

(a) if your analytical method is 100% as claimed, then there are is no 'maybe'. It will do exactly as your analysis indicates. That is the meaning of 100%. Therefore on this chart there should be no equivocation: it is either going higher, or lower, or staying the same. As you have agreed with Tech, it is going lower, then it must go lower, otherwise we are out of the 100% argument and into something completely different.

(b) the rising resistance channel: to draw a support/resistance line that is valid, you need at least two points [A,B]. Further points on that line reinforce the predictive value in the mind of the trader who drew them. You state that this line has held four times. I would argue it has held twice, with a current third test. I would not count the first two, as these two initial points are required to create the line. However, this is a minor point and could simply be an individual thing.

(c) the points [1] through [11] imply that you are creating a list of bullish/bearish factors. At some point, there is enough evidence to indicate that a position should be taken. I feel safe in saying most traders/systems will do the same thing: yet, most systems/traders have a failure rate that precludes 100%. I see nothing that raises your analysis above any other analysis, which rather suggests that your method will also produce similar results to the herd.

(d) to find five or ten charts that Tech requested is easy, as any chart can be analysed. The prognosis is not hard, after all it is either going higher, staying the same or going lower. I will let Tech pick any three charts and I will provide him with a diagnosis of higher/lower/no change within about 20 mins of seeing them. Of the three I would expect [hope] to get at least one right, because I'm a 50/50 sort of chap.

Now I'm going to disagree with both you and Tech and enter a bullish vote on this stock.

jog on
duc