EXS - Exco Resources

[Jako]

I have a lot of respect for Robert Milner at SOL.

They have a stack of cash available & have been looking to use it for about 18 months.

Robert Milner rarely trades in stocks, he is a long term holder or project builder.

I wonder if he is looking to finance the CCP, for a stake in the project ?

What SOL have done with NHC is an example of what may happen.

NHC could not find a lender to develop their project, SOL became the sole financier ( with a 60+ % holding ) & turned the project into reality.

NHC have risen from 0.40ps to 4.70ps over about 10 years with a high well over 5.00.

NHC have also paid dividends over this period of 1.45ps

this whole saga is going to become even more interesting.

Cheers

 

[wagonredwheels]

SOL is a 53% owner of copper chem (google it not publically listed) which is based in Cloncurry. SOL now own close to 20% of Exco, and want to be the major player.

 

[Jako]

Thanks WRW, I did not know that,

While we dont know Robert Milners ( SOL ) true reasons for taking the stake in Exco, we can speculate.

If he wasnt in it, as an all in takeover, perhaps he is after supply.

Copper is going to be in short supply over the next few years, & a supply contract could be a reason for the stake.

Still maybe he could just make a bid for the CCP & leave the rest, Exco would then have the gold project to finance exploration in their other leases & plenty of cash in the bank.

I guess it's just all speculation, untill we are told otherwise.

Cheers

 

[financial chat]

SOL is a 53% owner of copper chem (google it not publically listed) which is based in Cloncurry. SOL now own close to 20% of Exco, and want to be the major player.

From the latest presentation notes from EXS last month, SOL own 7.2%, not 20%. IVA own 23% and JP Morgan 9%.

However, I can see the merit with SOL coming onboard now, and then offering to fund a stand alone plant so that they can get their hands on the ore.

 

[wagonredwheels]

my mistake 7.2% about 18 million, SOL don't want to take over, bu they would like to have a say in what's going on. If you have a look at copper chem, which is located close by, they are currently expanding their plant and this would be an ideal acquisition.

 

[financial chat]

We have a very keen buyer today

This morning I initially thought that the share price may just rest until something triggered a move. The trigger might simply be an announcement that SOL have continued to buy.

On the chart that would look to be not too far away.

Additional results could not be too far away either.

I also note that the IVA share price is moving back up. I am inclined to think that $3 might trigger something.

But after looking at this morning’s trades I think that a trigger has been pulled.

SOL look to be buying again.

I think that they have held back as long as they can, but have now reached a point where they will have to declare that they own another 1%, and know that this is going to generate more buying, so they are starting to move ahead of the pack.

It started at 47 and has kept moving up, even clearing out lines so that they can get hold of stock

on another forum, another poster remarked that he thought that this was the start of the next upward leg. He was of the opinion that EXS will be above 60 this time next week.

 

[Jako]

I think Robert Milner (SOL) is buying up tp $0.50 at the minute.

The buying seems to stop at that level.

Maybe after an announcement of Substantial Shareholder, will trigger a rise, and a new buying level will be supported, $0.55ish ?????

Anyway watching the Big Boys operate is always interesting.

Cheers

 

[financial chat]

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources strengthens above Exponential Moving Average Price

Exco Resources, Australia's 115th largest materials company by market capitalisation, has strengthened above its trend. The MACD indicator (12 day EMA-26 day EMA) is positive, a bullish signal. In the past 26 days this indicator was positive for 22 days, suggesting further
upside. The stock price climbed 2.50c (or 5.1%) to close at 51.50c, ending a two-day streak of losses. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 14.9 points (or 0.3%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 4.8%.

 

[financial chat]

This looks ready to rock and roll big time:

From Getagraph.com

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 14 Sep. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 6.12% yesterday from AUD 0.49 to AUD 0.52 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is up by 13.04% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,80 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 1,15 million shares for approx. AUD 598 704.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays in the lower part of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term, and this will normally pose a very good buying opportunity. A break down the bottom trendline at AUD 0.50 will in first place indicate a slower raising rate, but may as well be a early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 112.1% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.06 and AUD 1.29 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.43 Resistance 1: AUD 0.53
Support 2: AUD 0.40 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.40 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

 

[financial chat]

More evidence that we are still outperforming and bullish:

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources hits year-high 6th time in one month and 10th time in three months

Exco Resources, Australia's 114th largest materials company by market capitalisation, hit a 52-week high of 55.0c during the day, but closed lower at 51.0c. In the last one month the stock has hit a new 52-week high six times and in the last three months ten times, pointing to a significant uptrend. The stock price plunged 4.0c (or 7.3%) to close at 51.0c, ending a two-day streak of rises. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which fell 52.7 points (or 1.1%) on the day, this was a relative price change of -6.2%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bearish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.1 higher than average of 2.7 for the Materials sector and 2.5 for the Total Australian Market.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The price added 3.0% in the last week and soared 18.6% in the last month.

This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.4 times average for the week and by robust volume 2.8 times average for the month.

Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 0.6% for the week and 4.1% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 2.4% for the week and 14.5% for the month.

In the Australian market of 1,327 stocks and 77 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 96 which means it is beating 96% of the market.

The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.3, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.3 29 times suggesting further upside.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal.

The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 38.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 28.0c.

In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high ten times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 51.0c and a high of 55.0c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs.

Moving average price (MAP) [with equal weightage to prices at close] The price to 200-day MAP ratio is 1.81, a bullish indicator. In the past 200 days this ratio has exceeded 1.81 nine times suggesting further upside. The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 38.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 28.0c, another bullish indicator.

Exponential Moving Average Price (EMAP) [with higher weightage to recent prices]
The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.3, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.3 29 times suggesting further upside.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
The MACD indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal.

Relativities
Today its percentile rank in the Australian market was 5. In the Australian market of 1,327 stocks and 77 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 96 which means it is outperforming 96% of the market.

 

[financial chat]

And from Getagraph.com suggesting that further rise is signalized:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 16 Sep. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited fell by -7.27% last day from AUD 0.55 to AUD 0.51. . In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been falling in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is down by -1.92% in this period. Volume fell last day along with the stock which actually is a good sign as volume should follow the stock. Last day the tradingvolume fell by -809 517 shares and in total there was bought and sold 783 678 shares for approx. AUD 399 676.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 120.1% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.01 and AUD 1.36 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.43 Resistance 1: AUD 0.52
Support 2: AUD 0.40 Resistance 2: AUD 0.53
Support 3: AUD 0.40 Resistance 3: AUD 0.55

 

[financial chat]

expected to rise 122.1%:

From Getagraph.com

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Friday 17 Sep. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 3.92% yesterday from AUD 0.51 to AUD 0.53 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 5 out of 10 days, and is up by 6% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day by -508 440 shares and in total there was bought and sold 275 238 shares for approx. AUD 145 876. You should note that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes for the next couple of days.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 122.1% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 1.04 and AUD 1.40 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.43 Resistance 1: AUD 0.53
Support 2: AUD 0.40 Resistance 2: AUD 0.55
Support 3: AUD 0.40 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

 

[financial chat]

copper-gold company Exco Resources (up 94%):

From MiningNews.net

Early pacesetters in the shareholder returns stakes

Monday, 13 September 2010

ALLAN Trench identifies the early leaders who have posted impressive share price gains since the end of June for each of nine commodity groupings across the 200-strong Top Resources Stocks 2010 watchlist.

Several stocks have set the bourse on fire with their July and August shareholder returns. After a March quarter in the doldrums for many companies, the beginning of the 2010 financial year saw a number of stocks come out swinging, posting major gains for their shareholders.

Those investors who subscribe to the mantra of the trend is your friend will pay particular interest to the list of companies who are out-performing their peers.

The honour roll is a lengthy one. Here are those companies on Strictly Boardrooms watchlist that led the field for the 2010-11 financial year to end August across each of the commodity groupings.

In Gold the prizes for the financial year to date go to Andean Resources (up 47% to the end August before the release of takeover offers for the company), to Integra Mining (up 42%, also seen as a takeover play) and to explorers Auzex Minerals (42%) and Austral Gold (39%).

In Copper/lead/zinc, the honours thus far go to minnow China Yunnan Copper Australia (up 65%); to South Australian copper-gold explorer Rex Minerals (65%) and not wishing to be left out, also to 2009 standout stock Sandfire Resources (58%). Thundelarra Exploration has also set the bourse racing, up 78% to end August from end June courtesy of strong drilling results.

The eclectic group of companies classified as Diversified miners and explorers have achieved several impressive performances. Chief among these were Brumby Resources (up 117% on encouraging manganese and gold results), Sandfires near neighbour Talisman Mining (up 95%) and copper-gold company Exco Resources (up 94%).

Uranium has had a fair share of share price action too. NGM Resources (not on the Strictly Boardroom watchlist) receipt of a bid from Paladin Energy has seen its share price rise 69% to end August. Of those companies who are on the watchlist, Western Australian hopeful Energy and Minerals Australia climbed 61%, in so doing just edging out fellow uranium hopeful Energia Minerals which posted an impressive 56% gain.

Things have been a little quieter in Nickel where Western Areas led the field with a gain of 36%, out-performed only by Metals X, up by 56%.

Oil & Gas companies are struggling to make headway this year, with Elixir Petroleum (31%) and Karoon Gas Australia (12%), the best performers on the watchlist across a quiet sector.

Coal Fe Resources has more than doubled its share price (141%) followed by takeover target Continental Coal (66%) among Coal stocks.

Iron ore companies have generally had a quiet start to the new financial year perhaps related to the ongoing uncertainties over Labors future tax grab.

The standout company of course was Mauritania-focused Sphere Minerals (up 107%), again showing the benefits of corporate appeal in lifting a share price as Xstrata unveiled a $2.50 per share cash offer for the company.

Finally, the rest of the Periodic Table, assigned to the Other metals/minerals category in the Strictly Boardroom watchlist, has had some star performers.

Tin hopeful Kasbah Resources delivered a pretty impressive 80% gain in the two months to end August matching the rise of Lynas Corporation which rode the rare earth metals investment wave some 80% higher.

Arafura Resources posted a 73% gain providing further evidence that rare earths are now firmly on the investment radar across Australia.

The share price race has only just commenced for this year but those companies listed above have already set the standard for other companies to follow.

Good hunting.

Allan Trench is Adjunct Professor at the Western Australian School of Mines and a Non-Executive Director of several resources sector companies. He is the Perth representative for CRU Strategies, the consulting division of independent metals & mining advisory CRU group (allan.trench@crugroup.com).

 

[financial chat]

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources strengthens above Exponential Moving Average Price

Exco Resources, Australia's 114th largest materials company by market capitalisation, has strengthened above its trend. The MACD indicator (12 day EMA-26 day EMA) is positive, a bullish signal. In the past 26 days this indicator was positive for 23 days, suggesting further upside. The stock price added 1.50c (or 2.9%) to close at 52.50c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 35.1 points (or 0.8%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 2.2%.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bearish Signals:
The Price to Book of 3.2 higher than average of 2.7 for the Materials sector and 2.5 for the Total Australian Market.

RELATIVE VALUATION INDICATORS - RVI - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bullish Signals:
The price jumped 7.1% in the last week and soared 19.3% in the last month.

This has been propped up by firm volume of 1.3 times average for the week and 1.8 times average for the month.

Compared with the All Ordinaries index which rose 1.8% for the week and 4.0% for the month, this represented a relative price increase of 5.3% for the week and 15.3% for the month.

In the Australian market of 1,326 stocks and 78 units traded today, the stock has a 6-month relative strength of 96 which means it is beating 96% of the market. A price rise combined with a high relative strength is a bullish signal.

The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.3, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.3 26 times suggesting further upside.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator of 12-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA is positive suggesting a bullish signal.

The stock is trading above both its MAPs and the 50-day MAP of 39.0c is higher than the 200-day MAP of 28.0c.

In the last three months the stock has hit a new 52-week high ten times, pointing to a significant uptrend.

PRICE VOLUME DYNAMICS
Volatility
The stock traded between an intraday low of 51.0c and a high of 52.50c, suggesting a trading opportunity between peaks and troughs.

Volume and turnover period
There were 275,238 shares worth $142,579 traded. The volume was 0.4 times average trading of 631,030 shares. The turnover rate in the 12 months to date was 48.1% (or a turnover period of 2 years 29 days).

 

[wagonredwheels]

financial chat & jako I have a few thoughts what are your e-mail addresses. I am going to be watching the footy tonight, however would mind speaking with you tomorrow

 

[Jako]

No worries RW

grab@twpo.com.au

Only 2 points in it for wests, would have been a good match
or
Collingwood thrashed Geelong, hope it wasnt this one you wanted to watch, unless you support the Magpies.

 

[wagonredwheels]

have responded. my teams are out of NRL so watched the AFL with my wife who loves the pies. Good to see the wobbles get in

 

[wagonredwheels]

financial chat. I can't reply to your personal e-mail as I do not have enough posts. Plaese tell me your e-mail and I'm more than willing to chat

 

[Miner]

No worries RW

grab@twpo.com.au

Only 2 points in it for wests, would have been a good match
or
Collingwood thrashed Geelong, hope it wasnt this one you wanted to watch, unless you support the Magpies.

have responded. my teams are out of NRL so watched the AFL with my wife who loves the pies. Good to see the wobbles get in

financial chat. I can't reply to your personal e-mail as I do not have enough posts. Plaese tell me your e-mail and I'm more than willing to chat

Folks

Hope you are well and probably running out of gas.

I noticed last few pumps there was no mention about Exco Resources.

AM I lost or visited wrong thread.

On Exco and investment of Robert Milner I would like to mention that SOL is a great investor in many companies. Robert has invested lot of money in few stocks which have no relation with Pharmaceuticals. But I do not think in any of them he has inclined to take over. As far as my reading is concerned he invests on good stocks. The plus sign is that if Robert invests then we can consider EXS is a good stock.

DYOR and DNH

 

[Jako]

miner,

Yes Robert Milner has proven to be a good stock picker over the years.

As far as takeovers go SOL themselves have not takenover any companys.

Some of SOL's major & minor companys have been involved in takeover bids, NHC bid for MCC, when Peabody were also bidding.
It did not come off though as MCC wanted more than either company were prepared to pay.
TPM (TPG Telecom) did takeover PWK (Pipe Networks) earlier this year though.
TPM are about 27% held by SOL, (off the top of my head)

As for Exco, SOL hold a stake (53%) in a company called CopperChem ( as was mentioned earlier on this thread), we consider his investment in Exco is to gain a supply of ore for CopperChem in some sort of deal, yet to be announced.

Time will tell.....

cheers