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EXS - Exco Resources

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And this was before this morning's announcement!

No resistance points!

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 6 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
Exco Resources Limited is up by 8.33% yesterday from AUD 0.24 to AUD 0.26 , and has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see if it manages to continue the gaining strike or take a minor break for the next few days. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 4 out of 10 days, and is up by 4% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 489 006 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 599 016 shares for approx. AUD 155 744.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 16.2% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.24 and AUD 0.33 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.25 Resistance 1: AUD 0.26
Support 2: AUD 0.24 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.22 Resistance 3: AUD N/A
 
Proactive Investors Forum - Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Exco Resources boosts resources at Cloncurry, is Xstrata far behind?

by Andrew McCrea

The ability of Exco Resources (ASX: EXS) to define a mineable reserve at the Cloncurry Copper Project in North West Queensland, received a boost today with the release of a maiden measured resource at the E1 Camp deposit.

Confidence has been increased by conversion of 37% of the previous Indicated resource at E1 to the Measured category, which comprises 9.2Mt @ 0.87 % Cu and 0.25g/t Au.

Total resources at the E1 Camp have increased to 48.1Mt @ 0.72% Cu and 0.21g/t Au.

Exco Resources Cloncurry Copper Project comprises four key deposits, the E1 Camp, the Monakoff group of deposits, Mount Colin and the Great Australia Deposit.

The main focus of recent drilling campaigns and resource modelling has been the E1 Camp, which now contains approximately 75% of the contained copper within the CCP.

Detailed geological logging and modelling of the E1 deposits has now been completed enabling the updated allowing 9.17Mt to be classified as Measured.

The Indicated and Measured resources at the E1 Camp now total 34Mt containing 257,000t of copper. This equates to 74% of the contained copper within the E1 resource being classified as Indicated or better.

Total resources for the CCP now comprise 55.7Mt @ 0.85% Cu & 0.22 g/t Au of which 37.9 Mt @ 0.86% Cu & 0.22 g/t Au has been classified as Indicated or Measured.

The Companys revised interim goal of reaching 30 Mt of Indicated resources within the CCP, as the basis

for the Definitive Feasibility Study, has been achieved.

The latest resource upgrades have also increased the belief within the company that ongoing work will lead to the definition of a 25-30Mt mineable reserve as the basis for an operation, centred at the E1 Camp, treating 2.5 to 3Mtpa over a 10-year project life.

With growing confidence in the resource and Exco's ability to define a mineable reserve and a sizeable 3mtpa+ operation at Cloncurry would also not be lost on Xstrata - with its Ernest Henry Operation - located just 8km to the east of Exco's CCP project.

Recently, Xstrata said, it "was looking at opportunities with juniors in the region to help bolster mill feed as the project transitioned to underground mining.

Xstrata's commitment to the Ernest Henry underground project could be a major catalyst to a potential deal with Exco having removed the uncertainty over their own future and longevity.

Conceivably, the proximity of the mineable resources at the CCP to Xstratas Ernest Henry Operation presents opportunities for the potential treatment of ore through that facility as an alternative to the development of a stand-alone concentrator operation by Exco.

It would seem feasible for Exco to pursue a commercially acceptable ore supply arrangement with Xstrata, whilst continuing to progress the items that remain on the critical path for the stand alone concentrator option.

Michael Anderson, managing director of Exco is known to be bullish on the project's economics, with or without a partner. It's just that the economics of the Xstrata scenario are potentially so compelling.
 
Wilson HTM commence coverage

Part 1

Exco Resources Limited
First Impressions
Highlights

Exco Resources’ (“Exco”, EXS.AX) Michael Anderson, MD and Geoff Lang,
GM recently presented to Wilson HTM.

Exco Resources is a cashed up Copper/Gold explorer with exploration
tenements in Queensland and with imminent gold production from its White
Dam Gold mine in South Australia.

Exco are in the final stages of delivering a DFS on their Cloncurry Project. A
successful DFS will see the company transition into a junior copper producer
by late 2012. The project is targeting 25kt Cu pa for 10 years.

Key Points
The White Dam Gold Project is Exco Resources’ gold only project that is
currently being “fast tracked” to take advantage of the high gold price with
the intention of generating near term cash flow to fund the primary focus of
the company, the Cloncurry Copper Project (CCP). The White Dam Gold
Project is owned 75% Exco and 25% Polymetals. Polymetals is a privately
owned company and will be the operator allowing Exco to focus on
Cloncurry. Exco is targeting 50koz Au pa @ A$570 cash cost from April
2010.

On 11/9/09 Exco arranged financing with Barclays Capital for A$16m (100%)
through a Gold Repayment Facility. Exco has received A$12m (75%) in
deferred revenue. The loan comprises two tranches with a tenor of 2 years
with a pre payment of 20,915oz, approximately equal to the first year’s
production.

The CCP is Exco’s strategic long term play in Queensland, 40km from
Cloncurry. Exco have grown the CCP significantly over the past 18 months
and we anticipate further additions to the resources. Exco completed a prefeasibility
in June 2008 for CCP on a standalone basis. The company has
now undertaken a DFS on a 2.5-3mt pa plant that would produce 25kt of Cu
pa. Xstrata have left the door open for a junior to potentially feed the Ernst
Henry mill during the operation’s transition to underground mining. This
could potentially provide Exco with near term cash flow should Xstrata
partner.

Wilson HTM view
We are encouraged by Exco electing to not become operators of White
Dam. We typically view small assets with a short mine life as a distraction
when a company is working towards developing a sizeable project such as
the CCP. Relinquishing operatorship to Polymetals will allow Exco to focus
on the primary objective of developing a large, sustainable producing mine
at CCP whilst benefiting from steady cash flow from White Dam.

Exco has just added measured resources to the CCP inventory. We look
forward to further increases in resource confidence as Exco moves towards
completing the DFS later in the year. In addition, we eagerly wait for a
commitment to a development scenario at the CCP.

Exco has been operating in the shadow of successful and well marketed
explorers such as Sandfire and Ivanhoe Australia. We see the current share
price as undervaluing the company on a multiples basis and an option play
into a soon-to-be junior copper producer.

White Dam – 75% Exco, 25% Polymetals
The White Dam Gold Project is Exco Resources’ gold only project that is
currently being “fast tracked” to take advantage of the high gold price and to
generate near term cash flow to fund the primary focus of the company, the
Cloncurry Copper Project.

The White Dam Gold Project is located 80km West of Broken Hill, SA and
consists of 4 tenements, EL3309, EL3257, EL4199 and EL4200.

The project is owned 75% Exco and 25% Polymetals. Polymetals is a privately
owned company. Polymetals will be the operator allowing Exco to focus on
Cloncurry.

Poylmetals is an established mining company and has previously operated the
Hellyer Zinc operation in Tasmania. Exco received numerous bids for the
operatorship and management have described their partners as a “well oiled
machine”.

Production scheduled for April 2010.
2.1mt pa @ 1.05 g/t Au with 70% recovery for 50koz
A$570/oz cash costs 1:1 strip, 2.5 year LOM

Current inventory consists of 75% oxide ore and 25% fresh “sulphide/refractory”
ore.

Exco believes there is significant potential to extend the mine life beyond the 2.5
years. There is an additional 87koz au at Vertigo located just to the south which
is 60% sulphide. Exco are currently applying for a mining lease over this
inventory.

Exco have significant tax losses and are not expected to incur any tax payable in
the near term.

On 11/9/09 Exco arranged financing with Barclays Capital for A$16m (100%)
through a Gold Repayment Facility. Exco has received A$12m (75%) in deferred
revenue. The loan comprises two tranches with a tenor of 2 years with a pre
payment of 20,915oz, approximately equal to the first year’s production (Delivery
schedule below).

Exco have purchased puts over 15,000oz at a strike price of A$1,100 and
has entered contracts for the forward sale of 5,000oz at a price of A$1,216.
Barclays have been granted 4.5m options at A$0.28 expiring on 10/9/10 in
exchange for fees.

We are encouraged by Exco electing to not become operators of White
Dam. We typically view small assets with a short mine life as a distraction
when a company is working towards developing a sizeable project such as
CCP.

Relinquishing operatorship to Polymetals will allow Exco to focus on the
primary objective of developing a large, sustainable producing mine at
CCP whilst benefiting from steady cash flow from White Dam.
 
Part 2

Cloncurry
Overview
The Cloncurry Copper Project (CCP) is Exco’s strategic long term play in
Queensland. Exco have grown the CCP significantly over the past 18 months
and we anticipate further additions to resources.

The Cloncurry Copper project is within a 100 km radius of the town of Cloncurry
in NW Qld, Australia. It is made up of numerous tenements and mining leases
including the E1 Camp, Great Australia, Monakoff, Kangaroo Rat, and Mt Colin
deposits.

CCP is well positioned geologically, to infrastructure and to a permanent work
force. The main deposit is the E1 camp which is 8 kms from Xstrata’s Ernest
Henry mine.

The deposit consists of sulphide copper-gold mineralisation occurring mainly in
magnetite, pyrrhotite, and chalcopyrite-pyrite mineral assemblages.

The project sits in proximity to Ivanhoe Australia’s Cloncurry deposit and
Xstrata’s Ernest Henry mine.
Cloncurry - Ivanhoe Australia (IVA.AX) – Resource containing; 3.6mt Cu,
6.1moz Au, 23moz Ag, 91kt Mo and 152kt Re.
Ernest Henry – Xstrata (XTA.LN) – Resource containing; 1.3mt Cu, 2.3moz
Au, 27mt Fe3O4.
CCP – Exco Resources (EXC.AX) – Resource containing; for 457kt Cu,
367koz Au.

Cloncurry feasibility
Exco completed a pre-feasibility in June 2008 on a standalone basis. The
company has since undertaken a DFS based on a 2.5-3mt pa plant that
would produce 25kt of Cu pa @ US$1.5/lb for 10 years. Exco’s indicative
estimates value the project at A$256m using a 8.5% wacc.

Notes from the pre-feasibility
Mining operations will be from 6 deposits located at 3 separate areas.
Operations will centre on the E1 Camp and will utilise open pits using
conventional blast, excavate and haul mining techniques with a waste to ore
strip ratio of 4.5:1.

Pit shells were estimated at US$2/lb Cu with a total Mine Plan Inventory
(MPI) of 22mt @ 0.92% Cu, 0.25 g/t Au.

A 2mtpa plant is expected to utilise conventional methods of crushing,
grinding and flotation to produce a sulphide concentrate to be sold to third
parties for smelting and refining. Test work demonstrates recoveries of 92%
for Cu and 80% for Au. Tailings and waste rock will be placed in surface
dumps close to the processing plant. Water will be sourced primarily from
pit dewatering.

Projected plant output ~20kt pa Cu, 13koz pa Au (~500kt pa Fe3O4)

Total capex of A$208m. Exco have re-iterated that the DFS should return a
similar capex estimate.

Changes to the inventory

Exco has just moved part of the E1 Camp inventory to measured status.
The total tonnage at the E1 camp has increased by 7% to 48mt and grade
has declined slightly to 0.72%.

Exco has recently expanded the CCP inventory by adding the Mt Colin
underground deposit. This deposit is located between Mt Isa and Cloncurry
and is within an 80km radius from the E1 Camp. The deposit contains 1.5mt
@ 2.47% for 37kt Cu. Exco has commenced a study into the economics of
the deposit which has the potential to significantly enhance the economics
of the CCP. The haulage distance from Mt Colin to the planned E1 Camp
plant is the primary outstanding issue.

The resource at the time of the pre-feasibility was 35mt @ 0.92% Cu, of
which, 22mt was to be mined. This implies resource to MPI conversion of
60%.

Applying a similar conversion to the current resource at CCP of 55mt @
0.85% Cu, and assuming no increase to the copper price used in the cut off,
we infer an MPI at CCP of 33mt @ 0.85% for 280kt Cu. This is slightly
above managements expectations of a minable reserve of 25-30mt.

Scenarios for advancing CCP
1) Standalone development – Develop the operation independently,
targeting 10 year mine life with first production from 2012.

2) JV – Develop the operation in conjunction with a partner. Given the
Chinese appetite for investment in resources, it is our view that a Chinese
partner could likely assist in funding the development capital in exchange for
off take agreements.

3) Utilise existing infrastructure – Supply Xstrata’s Ernest Henry mill.

We see three primary reasons for Exco to send ore to Xstrata’s plant, 1) the
plant is within 10km of the E1 Camp, 2) the plant at Ernest Henry processes
similar ore and thus requires minimal modification and 3) the current open
pit at Ernest Henry is close to depletion and the underground production
profile will not be able feed the current mill to full capacity..

Milling at Ernest Henry would bring production forward and save Exco
significant development capital. Xstrata’s CEO Charlie Sartain, recently
spoke at the Austmine conference in Brisbane and gave the strongest
indication to date of the possibility of a junior supporting the Ernest Henry
Mill. Mr Sartain stated that Xstrata was looking at opportunities to partner
with juniors in the region to help increase throughput during the operation’s
transition to underground production. The underground at Ernest Henry
contains 90mt @ 1.2% Cu, 0.68 g/t Au and 25% Fe3O4. Production from the
underground will be materially lower than the previous open pit operation
thus potentially leaving capacity for a junior to partner.

Exco has just added measured resources to the CCP inventory. We
look forward to further increases in resource confidence as the
company moves towards completing the DFS later in the year. In
addition, we eagerly wait for a commitment to a development scenario
at the CCP.

The E1 camp contains large tonnages at modest copper grades.
Mining at less than 1% copper does not preclude positive economics.

Our view is that mining from multiple pits, coupled with the haulage
distance from Mt Colin and Monakoff to the E1 Camp could potentially
reduce the overall economics of CCP.

Exco are hopeful that a successful DFS will see the company
transition into a junior copper producer by late 2012.

Recent drilling at CCP
Drilling activity in the December quarter was limited due to seasonality.
Drilling has since re-commenced and Exco are now targeting further
deposits at CCP. Initial results have returned;

34m @ 0.7% Cu, 0.22 g/t Au from 22m at Eight Mile Creek East
6m @ 1.62% Cu, 0.44 g/t Au at Tanbah Prospect

6m @ 1.56% Cu, 0.71 g/t Au at Salebury Prospect

Joint Ventures
Ivanhoe JV – Exco 100%, Ivanhoe option to earn in 80%
Ivanhoe Australia is expected to earn-in its 80% share by May 2010.
The Ivanhoe JV was formed in May 2007 and covers 560km² of Exco
tenements in the Soldiers Cap and Tringadee Project areas. The tenements
are contiguous with Ivanhoe’s Cloncurry Project tenements in the Selwyn
district just to the south.

The initial option agreement required
An initial investment of A$7.92m for 12.2% of Exco’s issued capital, the
funds were directed to the company’s other projects.
A minimum of A$600,000 during the first 12 months, and
A further A$4.6m over 3 years to earn in 80% of the project.
Total investment at the project level of A$5m.

Liontown JV
The Liontown JV covers the Fort Constantine South Project which is
adjacent to Exco’s E1 Camp at CCP.

Exco has passed the first stage of the JV by spending A$200,000. Exco can
now earn-in up to 70% by spending A$1m over the next 18 months to earn
51%, followed by a further A$2m to earn an additional 19% to take total
interest in the project to 70%.

Four targets have been drilled with only low level intercepts. Exco is
planning further geological and geochemistry testing, to assess the level of
follow up required.
 
Part 3

Financials
Share price A$0.28, Shares 326m
A$91m Market Cap, A$71m EV

A$(19.9)m net debt, A$19.9m cash, A$0m debt as at 31/12/09

A total of 21.05m options are outstanding. 2.5m A$0.20 options expiring at 30
April 2010 and 1.5m A$0.25 options expiring 30 August are all in the money.

22/11/09 The Company raised A$10.1m through the issue of 41.3m shares @
A$0.245.

2/12/09 the company issued 1.65m A$0.275 options which vested
immediately to Fox Davies in exchange for fees.

Exco have pre sold 15,687ozs. The ounces will be delivered from 31 Jan
2011 (see schedule on page 2)

Exco have highlighted a total of A$6.5m in cash burn over the next quarter,
comprising A$1m on exploration/evaluation and A$5.5m on development
capital.

Top 3 share holders, Ivanhoe Australia 20.2%, JP Morgan Nominees 9.5%,
Lion Selection 8.1%.

Valuation
Copper approach (excluding White Dam)
Exco is trading at a significant discount to its peers.

Based on 520kt Cu resource at CCP and using a conservative EV/Resource
of A$348/t, we can infer a value of A$180m. We are aware that 1/4 of the
CCP copper resource sits out side of the E1 Camp at neighboring deposits
up to 90km away. Valuing just the E1 Camp, we can infer a value of
A$120m.

Gold approach (excluding CCP)
Although Exco is a copper company with gold credits, and thus unlikely to
trade at gold multiples, we can still infer a value for the White Dam Gold
Project.

Using an EV/Resource multiple for a junior gold producer of A$125/oz, we
can infer a value of A$30m equity share for White Dam.

Adding back A$19.9m in cash we reach a market value of A$50m. This
implies that the market is only pricing in A$25m for CCP.

A$25m for CCP significantly under values the project. This value implies a
resource of only 80kt Cu @ A$312/t Cu, approximately 6x less than the
current JORC resource, 500kt Cu.

Copper EV/Resource – Australian explorers
Exco is trading at a significant discount to its peers

Going forward
We are encouraged by Exco electing to not become operators of White
Dam. We typically view small assets with a short mine life as a distraction
when a company is working towards developing a sizeable project such as
CCP.

Relinquishing operatorship to Polymetals will allow Exco to focus on the
primary objective of developing a large, sustainable producing mine at CCP
whilst benefiting from steady cash flow from White Dam.

The E1 camp at CCP contains large tonnages at modest copper grades.
Mining at less than 1% copper does not preclude positive economics.

Our view is that mining from multiple pits, coupled with the haulage distance
from Mt Colin and Monakoff to the E1 Camp could potentially reduce the
overall economics of CCP.

Exco has just added measured resources to the CCP inventory. We look
forward to further increases in resource confidence as the company moves
towards completing the DFS later in the year. In addition, we eagerly wait for
a commitment to a development scenario at the CCP.

Xstrata have left the door open for a junior to potentially feed the Ernst
Henry mill during the operation’s transition to underground mining. This
could potentially provide Exco with near term cash flow should Xstrata
partner.

Exco are hopeful that a successful DFS will see the company transition into
a junior copper producer by late 2012.

Exco has been operating in the shadow of successful and well marketed
explorers such as Sandfire and Ivanhoe Australia. We see the current share
price as undervaluing the company on a multiples basis and an option play
into a soon-to-be junior copper producer.
 
SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Monday 12 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
Exco Resources Limited is up by 6.90% yesterday from AUD 0.29 to AUD 0.31 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 24% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 101 790 more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 948 435 shares for approx. AUD 294 015.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.29, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.35 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistance level which may not be broken on first attempt.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.28 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.25 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.24 Resistance 3: AUD N/A
 
SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 13 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
No changes to price of Exco Resources Limited last trading day. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 29.17% over the past 2 weeks.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited has broken the strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.28, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.32 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistancelevel which may not be broken on first attempt.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.28 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.25 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.24 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

From Getagraph.com
 
SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Wednesday 14 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
Exco Resources Limited is up by 6.45% yesterday from AUD 0.31 to AUD 0.33 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 32% over the past 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,25 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 1,15 million shares for approx. AUD 381 102.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.30, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.36 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistance level which may not be broken on first attempt.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.31 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.28 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.25 Resistance 3: AUD N/A
 
SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 15 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
No changes to price of Exco Resources Limited last trading day. In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 43.48% over the past 2 weeks.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited has broken the strong rising short term trend up and even stronger raising rate are indicated. On reaction back there will be support on the roof on the current trend broken, which is AUD 0.29, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory AUD 0.33 will be next possible trendtop level and thereby pose a resistancelevel which may not be broken on first attempt.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.31 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.28 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.25 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

From Getagraph.com
 
From Getagraph.com - note the new target within 3 months:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Friday 23 Apr. 2010]:
(Autocomments)
No changes to price of Exco Resources Limited last trading day. The price has been going up and down in this period, and there has been a 0% for the last 2 weeks..

3 MONTH TREND
Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 60.1% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.45 and AUD 0.50 at the end of this period.

Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.28 Resistance 1: AUD 0.32
Support 2: AUD 0.25 Resistance 2: AUD 0.33
Support 3: AUD 0.24 Resistance 3: AUD 0.34
 
Anyone know whats going on with the sudden drop?
Is it the rudd tax? Yesterday it dropped the 22c then went back up to 25c. Was looking very strong in previous weeks?
I noticed in the accountments they raised $500K by selling 20c shares to employees and the director purchased a heap of shares, could this be the reason for the sudden drop?
 
p48 of todays AFR:

Xstrata cancels projects worth $6.6b

.....But it could play into the hands of juniors Exco Resources and Cudeco, both of which are well positioned to supply copper to the Xstrata's Mt. Isa concentrator...


.... Exco said earlier this week that it was still keen to do a deal with Xstrata, as it is the closest known sulphide resource to the Ernst Henry Mine. ...
 
Bullish signals

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSigna...lia_pdf_807.pdf

Exco Resources rises 4.0% on high volatility and expanding price range Exco Resources, Australia's 113th largest metals/mining company by market capitalisation, traded between an intraday low of 25.0c and a high of 26.0c. The price range has expanded in the last two days (from 0.50c two days ago to 1.0c today) which, accompanied by a price rise, is a bullish signal. Since the start of trading its volatility (highest price minus lowest price/lowest price) of 4.0% was 4.1 times the average daily volatility of 1.0%, up from 2.0% on Tuesday and 2.0% on Monday. A price rise on high volatility is a bullish signal. The stock price gained 1.0c (or 4.0%) to close at 26.0c, after a third day of trading unchanged at 26.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 77.3 points (or 1.8%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 2.2%.

Short-Term Rating (Technical): 5 out of 5
Its short term rises have been combined with strong volume resulting in strong momentum rises over 1 day. Significantly its price of 26.0c is at a premium of 4% to its 200-day moving average price of 25.0c. Its 52-week range has been 36.0c to 17.50c; it is trading at a discount of 27.8 % to its 52-week high and a premium of 48.6 % to its 52-week low. $1,000 invested exactly one year ago is now worth $1,106 of which $106 is a capital gain.
Recommended stop loss: 24.05c
 
EXS mentioned in Shaws morning notes again referring to last weeks report. Makes specific point that they expect a substantial re-rating on the back of the forthcoming announcement of an off-take arrangement with Xstrata.

Hope that they have got good mail!
 
Over the past 2 weeks or so there has been a consistent seller that reloaded between 30-75k at the top of the queue to sell.

Today that seller seems to have stopped, possibly having finished their line.

Talking to someone who has access to broker data, I understand that Pattersons have been the major seller over the last couple of weeks with 1.65m. So adding the last couple of days trades that have not yet settled and it was possible a line of 2-2.5m that has now been done.

If that selling has finished then we can expect the stock to firm over coming days.

Add to this that the quarterly report is due next week, which will most probably have decent production details in the report, (now that we are a producer), and possibly exploration results from Qld, all of which will add to the strength.

If Shaw's mail is correct with news of the offtake agreement being imminent, then life could be very rosy!
 
"Do you know what percentage stake IVA has in EXS?"

"Do they have any options to buy more?"



From today's quarterly report they have included an updated top 20 shareholder list and it says that IVA have 20.3%

They have no further options to exercise.
 

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