EXS - Exco Resources

[financial chat]

Exco Resources hits year-high 15th time in three months

http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

 

[financial chat]

http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=exs&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Price and moving averages
Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

Bollinger Bands
EXS.AX has closed below upper band by 2.7%. Bollinger Bands are 64% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to EXS.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this wide range for 1 bars. This is a sign that the current trend might continue.

 

[financial chat]

From Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Thursday 11 Nov. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 3.33% yesterday from AUD 0.60 to AUD 0.62 In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 7 out of 10 days, and is up by 16.98% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day by -55 126 shares and in total there was bought and sold 393 037 shares for approx. AUD 243 683. You should note that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes for the next couple of days.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays in the upper part of a wide and strong rising trend on short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trendline at AUD 0.64 will in first place indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 21.6% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.63 and AUD 0.78 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.57 Resistance 1: AUD N/A
Support 2: AUD 0.54 Resistance 2: AUD N/A
Support 3: AUD 0.47 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

 

[financial chat]

From Shaws research this morning:
EXCO RESOURCES (EXS) @ $0.55 ST: Buy

* Recent drilling results point to significant growth potential in resources at Cloncurry.
* Eight Mile Creek showing potential for a moderate tonnage IOCG deposit.
* Decision on development progress regarding partnership arrangements imminent.
* Recommendation remains BUY, price target A$0.80ps.

EXS continue to announce encouraging drilling results at the CCP and we anticipate significant growth of the existing resource of 61Mt to 100Mt. This would place the resource well into the regionally significant category, and comparable to IVA's resources such as Mt Dore, however with better grade.

MD, Michael Anderson yesterday at the AGM remarked that a decision on development of Cloncurry is imminent. We have previously said the logic for an off-take deal with the Ernest Henry mine is compelling for both parties, however we remain uncertain of Xstrata's willingness to deal, and believe it may take a competitive offer from either IVA or a proposal from SinTang to provide a catalyst for the project/stock to be put in play. Either way, when you consider out spot valuation of A$1.60 ps and the A$1.3b market capitalization of IVA, there is plenty of leverage and potential synergy available for IVA shareholders. We believe that the patience shown by EXS shareholders will be rewarded shortly.

 

[mr. jeff]

From Shaws research this morning:
EXCO RESOURCES (EXS) @ $0.55 ST: Buy

* Recent drilling results point to significant growth potential in resources at Cloncurry.
* Eight Mile Creek showing potential for a moderate tonnage IOCG deposit.
* Decision on development progress regarding partnership arrangements imminent.
* Recommendation remains BUY, price target A$0.80ps.

EXS continue to announce encouraging drilling results at the CCP and we anticipate significant growth of the existing resource of 61Mt to 100Mt. This would place the resource well into the regionally significant category, and comparable to IVA's resources such as Mt Dore, however with better grade.

MD, Michael Anderson yesterday at the AGM remarked that a decision on development of Cloncurry is imminent. We have previously said the logic for an off-take deal with the Ernest Henry mine is compelling for both parties, however we remain uncertain of Xstrata's willingness to deal, and believe it may take a competitive offer from either IVA or a proposal from SinTang to provide a catalyst for the project/stock to be put in play. Either way, when you consider out spot valuation of A$1.60 ps and the A$1.3b market capitalization of IVA, there is plenty of leverage and potential synergy available for IVA shareholders. We believe that the patience shown by EXS shareholders will be rewarded shortly.

Well that is fantastic. It sounds overly optimistic: $1.60 ps !
Nevertheless it would be quite satisfying. The news has been reasonable lately, I wonder if IVA would move earlier or pull an OZL on them and just watch the price get out of reach ? Perhaps OZL will buy a 20% stake?!

I guess that report explains the jump in sp today up 6% after lunch...
Good luck everyone, I have a lot of things crossed that this comes off, I have never had 3 positions on one stock before!

 

[GumbyLearner]

$1.60ps sounds a little unrealistic from what I can see.

Does EXS have anywhere near the infrastructure and management knowhow of the IVA team? Seems a bit assumptive if you factor in what IVA have in the Cloncurry region. eg. Merlin, Little Wizard, Elliot, Dore etc...

Where would EXS process their ore? Osborne?

IVA already holds 22.8%. So they are certainly in the box seat on any deals IMO

DYOR

 

[financial chat]

I think that the 1.60 valuation is before applying a discount.

Re where the ore will be processed. That is the big question that is yet to be answered. Will it be through Xstrata, or will it be through a new plant? Only time will tell. but it won't be long to find out and then we will see the rerating.

The EXS team are first rate, and would match any other team in the area.

 

[financial chat]

Update from Fox Davies

BUY
Price: A$0.59
Target Price: A$0.85

Market Cap (M): A$204.4
EV (M): A$194.4

Event
Exco has announced that it has today made the last repayment in respect of the gold loan which was provided by Barclays Capital PLC to finance Exco?s share of the development cost of the White Dam Gold Production Joint Venture in South Australia.

Comment
Repayment has been completed thirteen months after project commencement and only seven months after first production. A combination of better than expected production rates and higher gold prices has allowed the loan to be paid off two months before the first of three scheduled part-delivery dates.

This is excellent news for EXCO as it is now essentially unencumbered and can look forward to benefitting from the high gold prices now pertaining. Further, the JV partners are currently completing an exploration and resource development programme for the nearby Vertigo deposit and White Dam North, White Dam South and Ambush prospects with the objective of extending the life of the mine and increasing life of mine production. In addition to these resources, extensions to the current pit are also being investigated.

Recommendation
We retain the Buy recommendation with an unchanged target price of A$0.85/share.



http://www.uploadlibrary.com/foxdavies/ExcoFlashnote23Nov2010.pdf

 

[mr. jeff]

hi financial chat,

Re. FD Capital research note;

Of course it's easy to say that they are right when you hold, but it seems that at the moment EXS are going through a good transition. Will be interesting to see whether they start generating more interest now that they are building a positive cash position or whether they will be sold off due to the lack of exploratory excitement. (In spite of still drilling)

See chart, note a bad market day yesterday, EXS up 0.5 c. There seems to be a slight reduction in volume in the last 2 months. volume yesterday 1M. MACD crossing to the upside currently. Anyone have further analysis?

 

[financial chat]

Minesite Article

News
December 02, 2010

Exco Resources Finds Favour With The Banks And The Chinese, But The Views Of Near-Neighbour Xstrata Remain A Mystery
By Alastair Ford



It’s no wonder Exco’s Michael Anderson and Geoff Laing always go out for dinner with their bankers at Barclays Capital whenever they come through London – the combination of Barclays finance and Exco’s White Dam gold project has proved so successful that you almost have to pinch yourself when you read the numbers. For starters, there’s the cash that’s now coming in. Exco currently has about A$11.5 million in the bank. But according to Michael Anderson, that sum should have risen to around A$60 million by this time next year.
That’s not a bad result for a small-scale gold project that’s not even Exco’s main asset. More to the point, though, as far as the bankers are concerned, all the project debt has now been paid off – and in double quick time. The US$16 million White Dam financing was put together back in the early part of 2009, when the world was an even more miserable place to be in economically than it is now, but at a time too when the gold price was strong. So it made sense for Barclays to be looking at gold deals, however small. Still it’s not every day that you put up financing for a gold mine that ends up getting paid off in full within thirteen months, just seven months after first production, and before the first mandatory payment was even due.

Certainly such a result is worth a celebratory dinner, or two. “From start to finish, it’s hard to see how White Dam could have gone any better for us”, says Michael Anderson. At the last official production update, which was released back in September, the company stated that production rates were running 30 per cent ahead of target, while operating costs of less than A$600 per ounce and an average sale price of over A$1,380 per ounce meant that margins were “very healthy”. At that stage the company reckoned it was on track to repay the Barclays loan by the first quarter of next year.

At some stage Exco will stop being able to surprise shareholders with good news, but the recent strong run of news may have a little way to go yet. The success of White Dam has all sorts of implications for the longer term. One is that if and when Exco needs to borrow money again, it’ll have a decent track record. “It’s a fantastic thing to have on Exco’s CV, for the next time we go in front of a credit committee”, says Michael Anderson. For the more immediate term, though, with White Dam running ahead of expectations, and the company now debt free, the focus can once again shift back to Exco’s main project, the Cloncurry copper project in Queensland.

Exactly how development will proceed at Cloncurry is currently the subject of delicate negotiation, and has been for some time. And it’s because the future of Cloncurry is still very much in the balance that getting White Dam right was so important. With a cash pile that’s set to increase in value almost by a factor of five over the next 12 months, there’s no likelihood of Exco being boxed into a corner by a bigger, nastier potential partner. Funding squeeze? – not with White Dam throwing off cash merrily, the company’s bankers well and truly satisfied over the port and cheese and the end of a tasty meal, and the gold price heading back towards US$1,400.

Still, if Exco’s short-to-medium term position is strengthened by the White Dam production, it does still have to get a deal done at Cloncurry. This, says Michael Anderson, is “imminent”. Cloncurry is a good-looking property in its own right, given that it boasts a resource of 55.7 million tonnes of ore containing 472,000 tonnes of copper and 394,000 ounces of gold. What makes it even more of an intriguing proposition, though, is its proximity to the famous Ernest Henry mine, which is operated by Xstrata. Xstrata’s processing facilities at Ernest Henry look tailor-made to treat the Cloncurry ore, and are likely to be significantly under-utilised now that the Ernest Henry open pit is virtually mined out.

Xstrata, though, is being rather coy about its position on whether or not it’s interested in the Cloncurry ore, at least in public. But it had better make up its mind one way or the other fairly soon, because Exco has been cracking on with pit design and environmental work, and is unlikely to hold off the design and costing of a plant at Cloncurry much longer. Geoff Laing speaks abstractly of the phenomenal growth that he’s witnessed on recent trips to China. Chinese growth is, of course, part of the rationale for buying into a copper story, but Geoff’s not been to China merely to form a view on the global economic outlook. As has happened with so many other Australian companies, a Chinese partner may very well come in and make the running at Cloncurry.

“We expect a little bit of competitive tension to emerge”, says Michael. “But someone has got to make the first move”. The hope among investors is that it’ll be Xstrata. But if it isn’t, Exco is already gearing up with alternative development plans. Because make no mistake, the Chinese interest is very real. “The interest is absolutely there”, says Michael. “They want o come and work on our pipeline. They want to come in, on the register, and on a project basis.” With the copper price riding so high, now is the time.

 

[financial chat]

From Getagraph.com:

SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Tuesday 7 Dec. 2010]:
(Autocomments)

Exco Resources Limited is up by 7.27% yesterday from AUD 0.55 to AUD 0.59 The price has been going up and down in this period, and there has been a 3.51% for the last 2 weeks. Volume also increased last day along with the price which is positive technical sign, and in total there was traded 0,74 million more shares than the day before. In total there were bought and sold 1,41 million shares for approx. AUD 834 006.

3 MONTH TREND
Exco Resources Limited lays the middle of a wide and strong rising trend on short term and further rise within the trend is signalized. Given the current short term trend the stock is expected to rise 12.3% during the next 3 months and with 90% probability hold a price between AUD 0.60 and AUD 0.72 at the end of this period.


Support/Resistance |s
Support 1: AUD 0.57 Resistance 1: AUD 0.60
Support 2: AUD 0.54 Resistance 2: AUD 0.61
Support 3: AUD 0.51 Resistance 3: AUD 0.62



http://www.buysellsignals.com/BuySellSignals/report/Australia/Stock/PDF/Daily/Australia_pdf_807.pdf

Short term rating 5 out of 5

Exco Resources strengthens above 50-day Exponential Moving Average Price

Exco Resources has strengthened above its trend. The price to 50-day EMAP ratio is 1.1, a bullish indicator. In the past 50 days this ratio has exceeded 1.1 22 times suggesting further upside. The 50-day EMAP has increased to 53.85c. An increase is another bullish indicator. The stock price jumped 4.0c (or 7.3%) to close at 59.0c. Compared with the All Ordinaries index, which rose 36.6 points (or 0.8%) on the day, this was a relative price change of 6.5%.



http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=exs&c=ax&Analysis=Analysis

Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BULLISH in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.

 

[grandia3]

seems that this topic is a bit outdated

for those on the same boat, there's a new analyst coverage regarding exco dated 17 January 2011
http://www.excoresources.com.au/DownloadAsset.ashx?aid=7bf4001f-a515-4977-ad08-cb00bf84f9ed

 

[financial chat]

Resistance point smashed now.


From Getagraph.com
SHORT TERM COMMENTARY:
Exco Resources Limited [Friday 11 Feb. 2011]:

Exco Resources Limited fell by -3.13% last day from AUD 0.64 to AUD 0.62. . In the last 10 days the price of Exco Resources Limited has been rising in a total of 6 out of 10 days, and is up by 14.81% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell last day along with the stock which actually is a good sign as volume should follow the stock. Last day the tradingvolume fell by -40 560 shares and in total there was bought and sold 403 487 shares for approx. AUD 250 162.


3 MONTH TREND

Exco Resources Limited has broken the wide and horizontal trend up. Breaks like this is often followed by swift and strong movements, and any correction down to the breakline at approx. AUD 0.60 is considered to be a "second chance" to hit a potential runner. It is, however, important that volume does follow the price as false breaks may appear and it may move back into the horizontal trend. Based on the rectangle-formation theory the stock is predicted to reach AUD 0.70 sometime during the next 3 months.


Support/Resistance |s

Support 1: AUD 0.61 Resistance 1: AUD 0.63

Support 2: AUD 0.59 Resistance 2: AUD 0.64

Support 3: AUD 0.54 Resistance 3: AUD N/A

 

[mr. jeff]

A bit of commotion around EXS and their neighbours with a bid for the copper assets in Cloncurry. $175M for the ground I believe, with IVA wanting a capital return to the tune of 100M (as they are a 20% shareholder (plus creep?)) and EXS talking about spending the rest on drill bits.
Further info in the AFR today, discussing the potential takeover from IVA before 30th June. Looks like EXS will have some decent upside until then in its SP.

Good luck to all holders, lets see where this takes us.

 

[My Mate Said]

hi not much chat on tis one.. and ages since last post..what do people think as to why it is not moving ? it is sittting at its ....what do you call it ? NAV and no-one buying.it has had a great report since the the big payback and the copper more that thought whta going on?

 

[mr. jeff]

hi not much chat on tis one.. and ages since last post..what do people think as to why it is not moving ? it is sittting at its ....what do you call it ? NAV and no-one buying.it has had a great report since the the big payback and the copper more that thought whta going on?

I sold out when the asset takeover was announced and haven't looked since as it was ranging until the capital return. Now I don't know what the prospects are looking like....perhaps check it out and let us know - they must have released a report since late last year ?

 

[Bibimbap]

I sold out when the asset takeover was announced and haven't looked since as it was ranging until the capital return. Now I don't know what the prospects are looking like....perhaps check it out and let us know - they must have released a report since late last year ?

Price seems to be downwards since the dividend return/capital return ... reached it's lowest price of 17.5 cents in the past 2 days...
?worth buying now for upside potential
Results seem ok, and seems to be finding more resources...

 

[springhill]

MC - $55m
SP - 15.5c
Shares - 356m
Options - 11m
Cash - $58m

Northwest Queensland Projects
Exploration
• Drilling on new regional targets (tier one potential) has commenced and three drill rigs are currently in operation on the company’s tenements.
• Drilling at Wallace South is in progress. Results from initial phases will be reported separately once finalised.
• Drilling is in progress at the Turpentine Deposit targeting down dip extensions to the current resource.

Resource Development
• Exco continues to de-risk and add value to two wholly owned projects, the Mt Colin Underground Project and the Kangaroo Rat Open Pit Project.
• A 3,000m diamond drilling programme at Mount Colin commenced towards the end of the quarter. A resource update will be completed once results from drilling have been received.
• Ten infill diamond drill holes for approximately 700m were completed at Kangaroo Rat during the quarter. A resource update is expected to be completed by September 2012.

White Dam Gold Project, South Australia
• Gold production Joint venture production for the quarter at 4,437 ounces (100%) was down 1,146 ounces from the previous quarter. The expected run down of Hannaford pit production was offset by the start of production from Vertigo ore. Leaching continues with recovery levels continuing to exceed initial predictions.
• Vertigo development and exploration: Mining of the Vertigo deposit was completed in early May. Production will continue until the December quarter. The joint venture partners continue to explore for other opportunities in the Drew Hill area.
• Cash flow: Exco received $3.4m in revenues for the three months at an average price of A$1,588/oz. Unit cash operating costs were slightly lower than the previous quarter as expected with the cessation of mining activities at Vertigo. Operating margins continue to be healthy.

Corporate
• Board Changes: On 3 July 2012 the board announced the resignation as a non-executive director of Ivanhoe Australia’s nominated representative, Mr Peter Reeve. Mr Mike Spreadborough, currently COO of Ivanhoe Australia has been nominated to replace Mr Reeve.
• Great Australia Royalty: On 19 July 2012 the Company informed the market that CopperChem Ltd was disputing the Company's entitlement to the Great Australia Royalty under the 2009 Alliance Agreement. Exco intends to initiate discussions with CopperChem with a view to resolving the matter as soon as possible.

What is the deal here? Cash in excess of its MC.
Gold production is expected to continue until the December Quarter 2012. Is there anything beyond this?

 

[springhill]

QUEENSLAND EXPLORATION UPDATE
Drilling at Wallace South confirms significant mineralisation

•Diamond Drill hole WSDD002 has intersected significant gold mineralisation including:
−40m @ 2.93 g/t Au from 150m,
−Including 17m @ 5.95 g/t Au from 150m
−And 8m @ 1.68 g/t Au from 176m.
•Results from the four recently completed diamond holes will be incorporated into the resource model to enable targeting of possible additional supergene and primary mineralisation.

 

[pixel]

QUEENSLAND EXPLORATION UPDATE
Drilling at Wallace South confirms significant mineralisation

•Diamond Drill hole WSDD002 has intersected significant gold mineralisation including:
−40m @ 2.93 g/t Au from 150m,
−Including 17m @ 5.95 g/t Au from 150m
−And 8m @ 1.68 g/t Au from 176m.
•Results from the four recently completed diamond holes will be incorporated into the resource model to enable targeting of possible additional supergene and primary mineralisation.

Promising results giving me hope that I didn't keep them in vain.
This is about the break-even level after last year's capital return. Any move North would be a bonus for me.