EW Bears - Get back in your cave...

[Nick Radge]

I'm not clipping anyone around the ear. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and I'm certainly open minded enough to know that EW is not for everyone and even technical analysis is not for everyone. I have no time for Gann or time analysis, yet others swear by them. After trading for 23+ years their strength of opinion is not going to sway me nor will I be arrogant enough to disparage or belittle what they do. Each to their own.

I think what is being highlighted here is that Elliott Wave is a means to an end, not the do all be all of righteous trading.

I think we should also consider that the worlds best analysts can also be the worst traders - I'm sure there are some very talented financial planners out there that lost a lot of money last year. Look at LTCM - big brains, big losses.

Being a great analyst is one thing. Being a great trader is something else entirely.

EW to me has been pointing lower but the market is going up. I've got to trade what I see not what I think and is why I 100% long.

To make the connect between EW and the recent market action, take a look at the XJO on July 8. There are 3 or 4 bullish signals right on that day that said price will 'more than likely' go higher. I'll post those bullish signals a little if its of interest.

Nick

 

[Timmy]

I've got to trade what I see not what I think

Nice post. Just wanted to pick out that one line there.

I saw it on a bulletin board somewhere and the next post was the Haley Joel Osment line from Sixth Sense ... "I see dead people". Cracks up me up to this day.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

a bit of info for this topic.

Please refer to the links below!

A EW practitioner did makes some statements

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=408248&postcount=582

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=408250&postcount=583

Cheers,

 

[tech/a]

Tech, genuine question. What do you mean EW analysis is always correct? In the chart you attached to your first post in this thread you had written in a comment "Not all Elliot has been spot on all you need to do is be able to apply it correctly" What do you mean by these two statements?

I hope you can expand on this.

Timmy.
As always the shifting wave counts cause problems with those who arent familiar with Elliott.
More frustrating to those who need a Cemented Analysis is the fact that there are often aternate counts to the one move.

So comparing the count by Aget with one by Radge or Picker may see a different count.Purists will argue one is more correct than the other.
One may well be--- but if each conforms to the principal laws of Elliott then in my own humble view each can be used with confidence---for me I just need an idea of Market direction and possible target.

This (Elliott) is what I use for that.
Ive also bought Franks book----studied it and found his Projections in all timeframes excellent.But just as mystifying to those who cant understand why a level doesnt hold and keeps barrelling through.

 

[Timmy]

-- but if each conforms to the principal laws of Elliott then in my own humble view each can be used with confidence---for me I just need an idea of Market direction and possible target.

This (Elliott) is what I use for that.

Thanks Tech, understood.

 

[wayneL]

Just a thought, before scurrying back to safety

:

As I understand it, EW works as a result of mass psychology.

But there is a credible view that the market is being manipulated by........ who the hell knows, Goldman Sachs, the US gu'mint, The Devil, someone (see video on the Market IS manipulated thread).

This surely would "interfere" with EW analysis.

Either way, whoever is pushing the market, don't fight the tape, trade what you see not what you think.

In the interests of self preservation, I'm going back to my popcorn.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

As far as I understand EW, it should be used as a support, decision support system rather than solely EW.

Personally, in response to wayne, I wouldn't go anywhere near it if they didn't align, if I was an EW trader and used it with my VSA analysis, I would only enter when they were both supporting the same bias ie. both bullish/bearish, not when one was saying a down move is expected and the other is saying an up move is expected.

Even more so, I think its down to the individual.

 

[tech/a]

Just a thought, before scurrying back to safety

:

As I understand it, EW works as a result of mass psychology.

But there is a credible view that the market is being manipulated by........ who the hell knows, Goldman Sachs, the US gu'mint, The Devil, someone (see video on the Market IS manipulated thread).

This surely would "interfere" with EW analysis.

Either way, whoever is pushing the market, don't fight the tape, trade what you see not what you think.

In the interests of self preservation, I'm going back to my popcorn.

So are we talking E/W analysis on "The Market" IE Indexes.
Or individual stocks?
Ive commented before how we often see an alignment of stock counts mirroring Index counts.

I dont think any serious technical analyst trades what he thinks.

 

[wayneL]

So are we talking E/W analysis on "The Market" IE Indexes.
Or individual stocks?
Ive commented before how we often see an alignment of stock counts mirroring Index counts.

Oh ****, I'm getting dragged into this

Manipulation affects both via arbitrage. GS pushes the futures up a % and the arb bots take care of the rest.

dont think any serious technical analyst trades what he thinks.

Not old time battle scarred warriors like most of us here, but there are still plenty of ideologues about.