ETM - Energy Transition Minerals

[Gspot]

Sp down 15% today, which seems strange given the reprt.
With the bullish reports I'm reading on uranium/thorium, this is one to watch.

 

[nioka]

I was lazy to show a real value for GGG so i thought i better do a better fundamental analysis.

GGG Resource states their resource has 229 million pounds of U3O8, 988,000 tonnes of rare earth oxides and 1.3 million tonnes of NaF.

I will not value the uranium in their site since uranium mining is banned.

From Lynas Corporation (LYC) public announcement, they put the value of their rare earth at $21 kg. Stating the composite of their rare earth is more highly value.

Using a lower estimate of $15 dollars per kg for GGG's rare earth.
988000 tonnes =988000000kg
988000000*15= 14.8 billion worth of rare earth

Using a estimate of $10 per kg of rare earth
988000000*10=9.8 billion worth of rare earth.


That isnt even considering the 229 million pound of uranium they have. Which is currently banned from mining, but there is talks of lifting this ban.

I don't think it is wise to consider the value of GGG's rare earths in relation to those of LYC.

The rare earths at LYC are not associated with Uranium and are less of a problem to mine and refine. If those at GGG are associated with uranium then it is a different kettle of fish.

Then there are rare earths and rare earths. As the add says "all oils ain't oils". Some are valuable and some are not.

 

[bas]

Is anyone still following this one? I had stock from the float which i mostly sold (not at the top though...). Thinking they may be worth looking at again after another resource upgrade today.

 

[kgee]

Just recently have picked a small package of shares and options in GGG
A high risk play but I really like the look of them

By the end of the month a decision will be made on Uranium mining, and Greenlands referandum on self rule will also be decided.

From, http://sermitsiaq.gl/rss/en_newsletter.jsp

Greenland currently passed a total ban on uranium mining in 1988, but parliament will take up the issue at the end of November.

Couple that with the Broker Research Report from Uranium Letter April 2008
http://www.ggg.gl/documents/broker-research-reports/
where it states

"With the ban on uranium exploitation to be lifted in Greenland in the near future and a large resource upgrade to be expected in 2008, in our view, the Company has the potential to emerge to a multi-billion dollar uranium company."

A pretty optimistic broker report and I don't fully understand how they can imply the ban will be lifted when it hasn't been decided upon yet?!?!?
Yet to me it seems likely that it will... from polls I've seen it looks like the referendum for self rule which will be voted on Nov the 25th will be passed.
Greenland currently recieve a lot of financial aid from Finland with that gone maybe Uranium will be the next cash cow... it kinda makes sense to me ( NB I was wrong in making a similar assumption with FNT)

Currently there Market Cap (undiluted) is around $25 mil and they have $17 mil in the bank + what has been described as the motherload of all deposits
Plenty of directors have been topping up - no large packages but plenty of action all the same

Anyway maybe one to put on the watchlist

 

[kgee]

Well it looks like Greenland will elect for self rule on the 25th with polls indicating 75% of people are for self rule.
And on Friday ( which I think is our Saturday) the govt vote on wether or not to allow uranium mining as a by product.
If you goto http://sermitsiaq.gl/english/ theres a recent picture from a protest group ECN against the uranium mining ...but in my mind it looked like a pretty small showing....about 25 people
I'm hoping all these things bode well for GGG.
well by next monday we should no more

 

[kgee]

From Article in Sermitiaq "Solid majority for uranium as bi-product"
See http://sermitsiaq.gl/english/

Seems Parliament is in support of lifting the ban on Uranium...but it seems the Raw Matarials minister say's "he would step up the uranium information campaign prior to the final vote on the issue."
More red rope I hope not !?!?

A brighter note I love where GGG's chairman says
'South Greenland is one big uranium province and, regardless of where we dig, uranium ends up on our shovels,'

Ahh sweet music to my ears

 

[kgee]

After todays announcement my hate for politicians is re-envigorated again ...
" in principle we agree on mining uranium as a by product"
what kind of statement is that???

Ok its a step in the right direction but why couldn't have they worded it like..... " we agree with mining for uranium as a by product as long as all environmental issues are addressed"????

it plain ****s me
now how long do we wait? at least I made a small profit so I'll try and free carry my options while hiding them in the bottom draw...yeah right ...not with the patience of a goldfish (?) i won't be

 

[exgeo]

In-ground value equivalents given by the company on Page 23 of their November 2008 presentation work out to around US$50 Bn. Dividing this by the 334 Mt in their May 2008 JORC resource estimate gives a value per tonne of ore = US$ 150/tonne ore.

This compares with the AU$ 220/tonne of ore given by Arafura for their Nolan's Bore deposit (page 16 of ARU's 12/10/2005 presentation).

 

[greenfield]

With the action happening in both uranium and rare earths markets of recent, Greenland has had a little bit of a run-up over the past couple of weeks.

The quarterly report indicates a resource upgrade will be released at some time in the near future.

Is there anyone else holding this one?

 

[Luciano]

Yeah I bought a small parcel on Monday. Just bought it as a wild spec really. The company is obviously sitting on an amazing resource, but the elephant standing in the room is the location of that resource... on the top of a beautiful mountain ridge between two stunning fjords within sight of the town... Will the locals allow their pristine backyard to be turned into a Uranium mine? Well, obviously there'd be a heap of jobs in it for them if they did, but there will be trouble for sure. So, this stock will be a multi bagger for sure if it is allowed to fully exploit it's resource, but that potential is certainly balanced with lots of risk! Roll those dice and pray!

 

[Gerkin]

This is defiently one to watch out for. Interesting from a political point of view to see if the soon th be independent Greenland will allow such a project. The money Greenland could make would be extraordinary for both the economy and individuals. The key things driving this price up in the future are
- Resource Upgrade. I seem to think this will be released in the next 3 weeks.
- Pre Feasability Study. Released around December 2009
- Political Developments to Uranium mining in Greenland - The parliamant has already indicated that it in theory agrees with it.

I also have a positive technical point of view on the chart however I prefer fundamentals when valuing a stock.

 

[Gerkin]

Have a look at the trading pattern today, up over 23%, oppies up 40%, iminent resource upgrade, Good luck to holders

 

[kgee]

I'm surprised these haven't come up in conversation, thankfully i held onto my oppies....ticking the right boxes seen pump end dump b4, kind of have it in my head this is the real deal...its pretty hard to ignore, in my own head wer'e looking at 100% increase in REE's and who know's with the uranium 25-50. personal opinion.I don't kow but there seems to be a ground swell at the moment....and I cant talk technicals cauae I know f all about it
anyway thought i'd put the q out there

 

[exgeo]

From Timesonline. From The TimesMay 28, 2009

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25550073-5017996,00.html

Crunch looms for green technology as China tightens grip on rare-earth metalsLeo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent Japan’s increasingly frantic efforts to lead the world in green technology have put it on a collision course with the ambitions of China and dragged both government and industry into the murky realm of large-scale mineral smuggling.

The robust international trade in illegally mined, quota-busting rare-earth metals highlights China’s near monopoly on the raw materials for environmental technology – a 95 per cent dominance of world supply that is likely to become more widely noticed as China tightens its grip.

The weight and magnetic properties of rare-earth metals have made them important for wind turbines, essential to hybrid cars, and indispensable if the world ever hopes to covert to fully electric vehicles.

One mining company president told The Times that governments that had promised a way out of economic turmoil with bold schemes to subsidise green cars, solar panels and other environmental technology had “spoken without understanding the upstream of modern products”.

Don Burbar, the chief executive of Avalon Rare Metals, said: “The crux of the matter is that there are now a lot of technologies that can’t work without rare earths, and China is currently in effective control of the global supply. China has positioned itself to retain control, and meanwhile politicians around the world do not appreciate how the supply side of green technology works.”

In Japan, the world’s biggest importer of rare-earth metals, more than 10,000 tonnes per year – about a fifth of the country’s total annual consumption – are thought to enter the country through a thriving black import network without which Japan would already be in a severe supply crisis, a senior government official said.
China has been lowering its export quotas for rare-earth metals by about 6 per cent annually since the start of the decade, with Japan expected to be allotted only 38,000 tonnes in 2009. Toyota and Honda alone will consume about that quantity and experts in Australia have predicted a wider global supply crunch within three years as demand surges beyond existing refinery and extraction capacity.

But rare-earth specialists at two of Japan’s largest trading houses said that loopholes and smuggling substantially raise the quantities of rare metals that enter Japan each year. Kazunori Fukuda, deputy director of the nonferrous metals division at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, said: “If the Chinese export quota limits were the reality of what comes into Japan each year, we would be even more worried than we already are. All green technology depends on rare-earth metals and all global trade in rare earth depends on China.”

Ginya Adachi, from the Japanese Rare Earth Association, said that China’s dominance of rare earths would serve the developed world with a rude shock about global trade: Japan, America and Europe must now realise that some markets are not real, but political. But he added: “The Chinese Government wants full control but it doesn’t have it. It is not in control of the rare-earths market in the same way that Opec is in control of oil. Local miners will sell even if the government tries to control the price or the quotas.”

The Japanese Government has begun looking for alternative supply sources in Vietnam and elsewhere; rare earths are not as rare as the name suggests. There are potential supplies around the world, but prospective miners in Australia and the US are experiencing financing difficulties and as soon as new facilities have emerged in Asia and elsewhere, Chinese companies have quickly become majority investors.

 

[Randoi]

Hi all, I've been on GGG for about 6 months now and have been watching happily as it has slowly gathered momentum with hopefully some happy announcements around the corner.... Any idea what happened today with a 20% dump from mid 50's to low 40's?

 

[Luciano]

Wrong party won the election apparently... only one that opposed uranium mining in it's entireity. More uncertaintly for the stock now. Wouldn't be surpisedmif it dumps some more tommorrow, although I'll hold I think. Wish I'd been on the ball today... oh well!

 

[Randoi]

Wrong party won the election apparently... only one that opposed uranium mining in it's entireity. More uncertaintly for the stock now. Wouldn't be surpisedmif it dumps some more tommorrow, although I'll hold I think. Wish I'd been on the ball today... oh well!

Cheers for that Luciano, it will be interesting to watch. I agree it is still a very strong story just on the Precious Metals front (Uranium aside). Go GGG

 

[Randoi]

Now I'm confused. Clearly the election result is pointing to a hard case for uranium and as uranium is a bi-product of mining the precious metals, even that side of the story could get complicated. I really see no reason for the rally. Any ideas anyone?

 

[Luciano]

Well, it turns out that the winning party have made a coalition with 2 small centerist parties, neither of whom oppose Uranium mining, and as Greenland is heading towards independence, it will need income as it weans itself off the generous subsidies from Denmark. ALso, the Denmark pension fund has increased it's shareholding in the company over the last few months, so it is in Denmark's interest that the company suceed. It is likely that pressure will be brought to bear from several different angles on the new govt. Only 57,000 people in Greenland, so a very small economy with not much revenue, and GGG the only miner to be anywhere near providing a much needed royalty stream, so the odds seem stacked in favour of Uranium mining being permitted as a by product. Still uncertainty though.

The really interesting thing the MD said, (apparently) was that the resource upgrade is supposedly coming out in the next week or two at most, and the general feeling this guy got from the MD is that there is ALOT to be excited about as a shareholder of GGG. I've read speculation that this is going to be the biggest rare earths mine in the world, before you even start on the huge Uranium resource. If everything clicks, there is no reason this stock won't hit the moon. There was some weakness today, and could well be more, so could be well worth a speculative punt on dips... just make sure you strap yourself in before the resource upgrade!!

So there you go, a whole lot of ifs, buts and maybes, but I'm locked and ready to fly anyway... "Come fly with me, come fly, let's fly away..."

Good luck to all holders.

 

[Luciano]

Sorry, that doesn't make sense... a guy on HC rang the MD last week to chat about the political situation, and whilst the MD wasn't specific about anything, he seemed most excited about the resource upgrade. All this 3rd hand of course.