Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

ESG - Eastern Star Gas

from: http://business.smh.com.au/business...ducers-fired-up-for-growth-20081221-72z3.html

THE NSW coal-seam gas industry - a minnow compared to its booming counterpart in Queensland - is finally entering the sights of big energy companies.

After AGL Energy last week paid the explorers AJ Lucas and Molopo Australia $370 million for acreage in the Gloucester Basin, expectations are growing that other hopefuls such as Eastern Star Gas, Metgasco and Sydney Gas could strike key deals.

AGL's purchase price of 74c to 94c a gigajoule of proved and probable reserves is at the high end of recent domestic deals, and gives the utility a quarter of the state's proven gas.

Coal-seam deposits in NSW have been explored far less than those in Queensland, which have attracted more than $15 billion from international players looking to export the gas, including Shell, ConocoPhillips, Petronas and BG Group. But AGL's purchase has moved the spotlight onto NSW.

"I think it's a natural progression on from Queensland and inevitably investors will be starting to look at NSW," said a CommSec analyst, Paul Johnson.

"Queensland moved very fast. They went from being upstarts with a lot of hope and bright futures to what we've got today, which is big companies like Origin selling half their gas for $US6.5 billion [$9.6 billion] to ConocoPhillips."

Exporting gas from NSW remains a long way off, as this requires far greater reserves and expensive liquefied natural gas facilities. The lower-quality resources of NSW coal and inadequate infrastructure have also deterred large-scale corporate interest.

But the AGL deal shows that may soon change for the small NSW gas companies, some of whom are starved of capital.

The managing director of Eastern Star Gas, David Casey, said the company had been approached by potential partners after TRUenergy purchased a 5 per cent stake last year for $15.75 million. But its main focus is upping its reserves to meet memoranda of understanding to supply Maquarie Generation and Babcock & Brown Power.

"The right offer obviously would make you think about it but that aside, we're moving forward to book our reserves and start development drilling."

Another hopeful, Metgasco, is also talking to companies with bigger balance sheets needed to back its exploration plans. Its managing director, David Johnson, said it was "a matter of time" until NSW explorers found much larger resources but the smaller companies needed hard-to-access capital to achieve this.

"If we can't tap equity capital markets then we have to tap the corporate sector," he said.

In a sign of growing market expectations, shares in Eastern Star, Metgasco and Sydney Gas rose by 9 per cent, 22 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively, after the Gloucester Basin deal.

The chief executive of the energy consultancy EnergyQuest, Graeme Bethune, said coal-seam methane could transform NSW. "It really has the potential to change the state from a position where it's not producing much gas on its own to one where it becomes a producer."


marcus padley also had a buy recommendation on it in the herald sun
 
After acquisition of SGL, the next obvious target in NSW would be ESG.

Current Narrabri CSG Project Gross Certified Reserves:

1P - 21PJ
2P - 336PJ
3P - 1,300PJ

ESG remain confident of achieving gross 2P reserve of 1,300PJ by the end of CY2009. It would be a substantial increase in shareholder value.

Based on the AGL acquisition of PEL285 in the Gloucester Basin, NSW, from AJL Lucas and Molopo MPO, the price was $2.05/GJ of 2P. This would value ESG's current booked 2P reserves at $448m or $0.58/share and 12 month targeted reserves 1,300PJ (845PJ net) at $1,730m or $2.28/share. The $2.28/share will be the upside for ESG if the target is achieved in 2009.
 
Really surprised this hasn't garnered more attention on here.

As you all know, I've been a big fan of these stocks for a long time. Got a lot of people in to PES and didn't buy any myself. :banghead:

Off the top of my head, I think I may have mentioned it here and in the CSM/ CBM thread, that I thought $2 undiluted would be a good target for this, on a sector comparison basis. Most likely about $1 as the inevitable cap raisings come through though.

Given the re-ratings in the sector, it could well be more. Given the other values placed on ORG's coal seam assets, and PES', I'd say 3-4 is not out of the question. 4-6 in a T/O is not out of the realms of possibility given the premiums paid for these assets.

A few things that make ESG different. A lot larger Capex given the depth of their target, but also comes with larger payoff zones. Potentially massive.

NSW also does not have the critical mass in the industry like QLD does, which makes ongoing costs, and future expenditures for any suitor potentially larger.

Having said that, given the NSW market is starved of gas, it makes it more attractive in its own way.

I think it's pretty inevitable that this gets taken over eventually, it's probably just a matter of time. On that basis, I've bought more on the pullback this morning, and will just bottom draw it, and wait for the offer. Not going to take any risks with this one, and don't want it to be another PES for me :banghead: ... even though I do have quite a few of these already.

Would not be surprised to see this pullback to about 50c in the near future.

Cheers.
 

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As you all know, I've been a big fan of these stocks for a long time. Got a lot of people in to PES and didn't buy any myself. :banghead:
.
Chops I first put Pure Energy into my watchlist at 20c.... Don't I feel the fool also.

Mean while I have sat here with ESG when I could have had that money in PES. Bang head x1000.:banghead:

I have confidence in ESG - but stocks like PES are few and far between and to know I sat down and spent a few nights one week about 2 years ago researching Pure Energy really irritates me - but we can't live in the past.

I think ESG will surpass the 845 2p target quite easily by the end of this year.
 
Chops I first put Pure Energy into my watchlist at 20c.... Don't I feel the fool also.

Mean while I have sat here with ESG when I could have had that money in PES. Bang head x1000.:banghead:

I have confidence in ESG - but stocks like PES are few and far between and to know I sat down and spent a few nights one week about 2 years ago researching Pure Energy really irritates me - but we can't live in the past.

I think ESG will surpass the 845 2p target quite easily by the end of this year.

Yes PES, was the stock of the year for 2008! I did a weeks research on PES before I bought (including at the end of the week, ringing the Company Secretary who when having a chat said "did you notice Arrow have quite a holding in our Company?"). On that comment, I invested straight away.
They knew what was happening from the start...... in fact, why on earth did Arrow float off those acreages into PES, was it for cap raising purposes, or a job for the mates? Off topic I know, but receiving $20 mill (or whatever the float paid them) to then buy it back 2 years later for $670 million....how crazy is that! Glad I was a bigger holder in PES than AOE for the time though.

I own slightly less ESG, but do like it nonetheless. It's kind of the last man standing! Two substancial holders to wrestle with first I would think.
 
I like ESG. The big co's seem up to the challenge of proving the unproved - making CSG economical and manageable.

Can anyone tell me if the 1,200PJ of 2P reserves that they are targeting is 100% or their share only? (i recall they are 65% in the field). Proving up reserves is relatively easy once you know where the gas is - I think they will get there and hopefully the share price will respond to each upgrade despite already seeing significant gains in the last few weeks.
 
PEL238 is 65% to ESG. Gastar own the other 35%.

ESG also have interests in adjoining land via farm-ins with Orion Petroleum.

The Edgeroi corehole results last year were very promising and suggest that the coals will continue onto the Orion/ESG land north of PEL238.

So even though PEL238 target is 1200 2p, the 2p reserve ultimately that ESG will be sitting on will be potentially quite large when other results start to come in.
 
On ABC radio this morning in the Hunter , the lead story was that a proposed gas fired base load power station by Queensland Gas in the hunter would not go ahead due to changed priorities post takeover. Which probably means they can make more money exporting the stuff as a liquid. Any thoughts out there as to the impacts either positive or negative on ESG from this news as I assume it will make a QLD to Newcastle gas pipeline less viable. Does this make local gas worth more, is AGK even smarter now post its recent purchases.
 
the 2p reserve ultimately that ESG will be sitting on will be potentially quite large when other results start to come in.

Seems as though that time is starting to approach.

Esg releasing a contingent resource announcement today with some impressive figures. Makes one wonder who the message is for - investors or prey.;)
 
The front page story on the Newcastle Herald today" GO FOR GAS" is the approval by the NSW Govt of the Queensland to Hunter gas pipeline. The article also says that Qld and Federal approvals are in place. I know this only refers to Gov't approvals not necessarily $$ to build it. The article also mentions the begining of a NSW CSG industry. It will be interesting to see if this is a + to ESG's SP. The article stated " the pipeline is expected to become operational in 2012-13". One would think that a pipeline going past your gas field would only be a good thing:2twocents
 
Extract from Compare Shares

"Ben Polkinghorne
PATERSONS

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

Eastern Star Gas (ESG)

The coal seam gas sector experienced rapid consolidation last year. A number of transactions highlighted the increasing value of coal seam gas assets. Eastern Star Gas made significant progress in the December quarter, with a substantial upgrade in reserves and continuing success with its drilling program. "

Disclaimer : Do not hold ESG
 
Hmm, 14% jump in a falling market with 3 million shares changing hands.

And NOTHING is announced. Any whispers around the traps ? Or is this just sucker bait ?:confused:
 
MPO, BOW and a few others up also by double digit percentages today basilio.

Everyone wants a piece.
 
esg is a player sitting on a very large contingent resource.

The market is starting to slowly shift attention to it as they look at other plays building resources of interest.

ESG seems to be keeping their powder dry and not giving too much away. Ammunition for the cynics but I figure they are just keeping things very close to their chest.

Santos is the rich neighbour looking across the fence.....;)
 
ESG has been suppressed at 61c mark for the last few days . I've been watching it over the last month or so as a potential breakout .
 

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Yeah there was a capper at 62c last week. The capper was then at 61 but seems to have left. I can't believe I did not pick more up, I will do so tomorrow. Santos presentation and Abn Amro report has helped push the Share price today one would suspect.
 
As I mentioned in a post on MPO yesterday, MPO have achieved and look like achieving greater than anticipated results from multi-lateral horizontal wells in QLD. This is the same approach ESG is taking with their Bibblewindi production pilot. ESG is attempting to drill these lateral wells at 90 degrees to the natural fractures present in the Bohenia coals which has the potential to deliver maximum gas for minimum development dollars. This fact alone won't move the market however I think there is a good story developing for ESG for multiple reasons many of which have been suggested in this forum,ie increased awareness of all things CSG, cashed up ex owners of PES and other co's taken over, LNG prospects, gas fired power stations ETC,ETC.:2twocents
 
Good to see Eatern star has cracked the top 200 index !!!!! :)

It wasnt all that long ago we all saw QGC do this
Good to see Blu energy made to the 300 index too

I still hold ESG and have tracked this company for nearly 2 yrs now
:)

Go ESG ! she cracked .72 this morning :):)
 
I'm fuming i didn't buy more, ohwell im 18 and it was my first company i bought into. Hopefully there is a little retrace so i can pick some more up. There is talk of a possible cap raising soon also. Kingbrown I get the feeling this stock could out do PES.
 
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