PSA - Petsec Energy

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

Positive time cycle is right on time .... and as per post above, there's
more positive aspects to come, over the next few weeks ...

28042008 ... more positive news expected ... and right on time, too ... !~!

12052008 ..... minor and positive aspect

16-19052008 ..... 2 positive cycles

23-30052008 ..... significant negative news expected here

..... but, the best news about PSA, there will be another very strong
period, in November/December 2008.

happy days

paul

===

Hi folks,

PSA ... as per post above, another positive move comes in
... and right on time, too ...

have a great weekend

paul



=====

 

[dutchie]

G'day Trader Paul

Nice call (irrespective of how you do it).

Up 16% today - but no announcements. Speeding ticket coming up?

Cheers

dutchie

 

[Trader Paul]

G'day Trader Paul

Nice call (irrespective of how you do it).

Up 16% today - but no announcements. Speeding ticket coming up?

Cheers

dutchie

=====



Hi folks,

PSA ..... figure it must be a leaky play on China, as HZN
and ROC also gained today, but no apparent news, as yet ...

have a great weekend

paul



=====

 

[dj_420]

I think they are actually undervalued, low market cap for current gas producer, although relatively short gas life 5-6 years we do have the China Beibo oil coming online 2010 (estimated) and more gas projects in next few months.

Technically it looks like a nice turnaround. Current PE of 6.

 

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

PSA ... sure has been a good ride and still no news, as yet ... !~!

..... buy the rumour and sell the news, maybe ... ???

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[GREENS]

Trader Paul, I’m hoping that significant negative patch of news you’ve described between 23-30/5/08 is not in regards to the China development. The only thing putting my mind at ease is that all JV partners have stated that an investment decision is not due until sometime during 3Q 08. Maybe this is what will contribute to PSA’s strong momentum that you have pointed out later on in 08.

The one thing I can’t seem to comprehend about Beibu Gulf is the varying recoverable reserve and production capacity estimates. How can each JV partner have such a wide ranging view on these key factors? Anyone got any ideas?

ROC –

2P reserves: 24-29MMBO for Wei 6-12, Wei 6-12-S and Wei 12-8 West and production capacity of 10,000-15,000BOPD with first production due in 2010-2011.

PSA –

2P reserves: 19-27MMBO for the Wei 6-12 and Wei 6-12-S and 10MMBO for Wei 12-8 West i.e. overall 2P reserves of 29-37MMBO. Production capacity of 25,000-30,000BOPD with first Production due in early 2010.

HZN –

2P Reserves: 33-38MMBO for Wei 6-12 and Wei 6-12-S and 11MMBO for Wei 12-8 West i.e. overall 2P reserves of 44-49MMBO and production Capacity of 20,000-25,000BOPD with first production due in early 2010.

 

[michael_selway]

I think they are actually undervalued, low market cap for current gas producer, although relatively short gas life 5-6 years we do have the China Beibo oil coming online 2010 (estimated) and more gas projects in next few months.

Technically it looks like a nice turnaround. Current PE of 6.

Hm short gas life, are you talkign about PSA?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 12.9 16.8 4.5 27.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

 

[oldblue]

Hm short gas life, are you talkign about PSA?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 12.9 16.8 4.5 27.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

Good morning michael

I don't quite follow your point. Are you saying that projected earnings out a mere 2 years disproves a " short gas life"?
What am I missing?

 

[solomon]

There may be a short gas life but in PSA's favour is that gas prices are still up despite oil heading south. Perhaps there is a some switching to gas which from oil going on where possible which means the all time high gas prices may not be the subject of speculation. In that case PSA is going to make a killing over the next few years. There is my worth. I can only hope someone else is lstening given that I'm a holder.

 

[oldblue]

The problem with that is that PSA have hedged a fair bit of future production at prices well below the current ~$12. I've read that this includes 70% of current quarter at $7-80, 30% of December quarter at $8-50, 40% of 2009 production at $8-50. Still pretty good prices and at least it's not 100% !

Disc: Holding PSA

 

[solomon]

The problem with that is that PSA have hedged a fair bit of future production at prices well below the current ~$12. I've read that this includes 70% of current quarter at $7-80, 30% of December quarter at $8-50, 40% of 2009 production at $8-50. Still pretty good prices and at least it's not 100% !

Disc: Holding PSA

That is a problem with my argument, I hadn't realised they had hedged at those levels, guess I should have done a bit more detailed research - hmm this means I will have to reconsider my position. thanks.

 

[Hatchy]

Anyone have any idea what the heck is going on with PSA's share price over the last few weeks?
I can't believe it could drop lower, then it seemingly mocks me and does!

 

[StatsMan]

Anyone have any idea what the heck is going on with PSA's share price over the last few weeks?
I can't believe it could drop lower, then it seemingly mocks me and does!

The share price has dropped substantially!! I'm guessing that people have been scared off by talk of lower oil prices and the string of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. I personally think that the stock is a bargain at 40 cents, IMO energy are just going to keep rising over the next decade, so I think they should have the ability to make good profits long term.

 

[prawn_86]

The share price has dropped substantially!! I'm guessing that people have been scared off by talk of lower oil prices and the string of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. I personally think that the stock is a bargain at 40 cents, IMO energy are just going to keep rising over the next decade, so I think they should have the ability to make good profits long term.

Why do you think they are such a bargain statsman?

The only thing you have mentioned is long term oil prices, so following that theory you should buy every oil stock.

more analysis is needed

 

[StatsMan]

Why do you think they are such a bargain statsman?

The only thing you have mentioned is long term oil prices, so following that theory you should buy every oil stock.

more analysis is needed

Wrong. Following that logic you should buy every UNDERVALUED oil stock. I believe PSA is undervalued at its current share price. This is based on having examined: (i) their proved, possible and probable reserves; (ii) forecast oil and gas prices; and (iii) the current valuation of the stock by the market.

 

[prawn_86]

So why not provide these figures in order to for other people to be able to put their opinions also?

 

[StatsMan]

So why not provide these figures in order to for other people to be able to put their opinions also?

I'm not going to dredge up all of the figures that I've analysed and most of my own analyses have required some degree of modelling. Besides all of the data is accessible in the last annual report and the subsequent ASX announcements. Also, people should do their own research and not rely on mine. If you disagree with me about PSA, then thats fine (in fact it is great - it means you have an opinion), but after looking at their value in terms of assetts and production against their current share price / market cap, they are a bargain (in my opinion). Just out of interest, what is your opinion of PSA?

 

[prawn_86]

I have no opinion of PSA, i have barely even heard of it.

I am merely doing my job as moderator in asking for more info. In the future, any posts stating a stock is a 'bargain' or the like will be removed if they do not provide some tangible reasoning. TA, FA, whatever you like, aside from just opinions, you need the reasons for those opinions.

Thanks

Prawn

 

[StatsMan]

I have no opinion of PSA, i have barely even heard of it.

I am merely doing my job as moderator in asking for more info. In the future, any posts stating a stock is a 'bargain' or the like will be removed if they do not provide some tangible reasoning. TA, FA, whatever you like, aside from just opinions, you need the reasons for those opinions.

Thanks

Prawn

Hi Prawn,

thanks for letting me know - I'm pretty new here. Just out of interest, what constitutes "tangible reasoning". I see plenty of posts from the TAs of the world claiming things like "on December 08 there will be good news for PSA" without any issues.

Cheers,

StatsMan

 

[peteai]

Hello,

Anyone have a good reason why PETSEC is this low - I mean a few months ago it was trading above $1.20 - I know shares and energy shares have been knocked about a bit - but this is getting beyong ridiculous - I mean a forecast PE of 1 in a couple of years.........unless there is something else??

PETEAI