ESG - Eastern Star Gas
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And back down she goes to 74cents 
This one is a ride all the way to takeover - lol
This one is a ride all the way to takeover - lol
Wow - this is really in an established downtrend. Next support levels seem to be at the 69-71cent levels (used to be resistance - now hopefully support) and after that we are looking mid 60s again. Who would have thought?
Technicals aside this is still a good fundamental stock in a sound industry. The industry gets kicked around a bit by the enviromentalists but at the end of the day - any country's energy growth has to come from either coal (greenies wont let this happen on large scale), nuclear (greenies will have apoplexy over this) or gas (CSG) - the lessor of all the evils. ESG has good tracts of land near major cities on the east coast and near infrastructure (both pipes and ports). Management seem OK as well - so think long term this one is still good.
malachii
PS - Don't own any ESG at the moment but that may change.
Technicals aside this is still a good fundamental stock in a sound industry. The industry gets kicked around a bit by the enviromentalists but at the end of the day - any country's energy growth has to come from either coal (greenies wont let this happen on large scale), nuclear (greenies will have apoplexy over this) or gas (CSG) - the lessor of all the evils. ESG has good tracts of land near major cities on the east coast and near infrastructure (both pipes and ports). Management seem OK as well - so think long term this one is still good.
malachii
PS - Don't own any ESG at the moment but that may change.
No posts re ESG for a while, some upward price movement and murmuring's on other forums re possible takeover -AGAIN. Any intelligent analytical comments out there to reassure this holder?? does STO have a need of more gas now that it has taken another step re its LNG project.
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ESG seems particularly unloved at the moment. Down to 70c. Anyone have any ideas on why it has continued to drift down (with quite strong selling pressure) when it seems to have such valuable reserves and possibilities ?
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Here my
My reasons for selling out were:
1) long term price trend..my average buy price was 82c, sold for avg 77c, held far too long. Moved the money from worst in sector to "best"
2) Original reason to buy was TO prospect, mainly by Santos, but they are delaying, using money elswhere.
3) Unless TO happens, and they go ahead on their own, will needs big $..ie more dilutionary cap raisings.
4) No earnings
5) short-term bad publicity for csg sector in Oz.
6) Company timelines/guidance not fully up to speed imo
7) too many shorters
Sold & moved over to SSN over the last few weeks...up 80% ( even after more buys).
Having said that, I do believe there will be a takeover offer some time...but when and for how much ?...my target was $1.20-1.30.
will be keeping my eye on it. s.o.b owes me opportunity cost
DYOR ( I have a somewhat unfortunate record of losing patience near the bottom)
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I see your point AWG. I left ESG the middle of last year to focus on LNC. But I also thought it would do well. Of course it still has very valuable CSG reserves but somehow "sentiment" is against it. Strange.
I have an average price of 85.6c. I vowed last time it plumbed the mid-60's I would buy more, and later kicked myself when I didn't. This time I will top-up at that value. The recent decline should make it more appetising for a takeover.
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Approaching it's lowest level's in a year now, last 2 times it's reached 60 odd cents spiked with heavy buying. The heat is well and truly out of this sector - does anyone feel that as well. Day traders moved on.
A sell of in the market could push this to attractive buy levels if one still believes in the long term success of ESG. I watch it closely.
I agree with the expression of feeling about the CSG sector, principally in NSW. The masses armed with a view from watching the film "Gaslands" are currently very vocal in this state.
Little really new has been announced by ESG to encourage its holders, the mooted Newcastle LNG project maybe a good thing, but currently the cashflow is outward and downward (as you would expect in a resources project at this stage )
There is a belief that Santos will act and buy out ESG at some point, but why would they be in a hurry while ESG's price is heading south. Why not watch and wait.
ESG has also delayed reserves upgrades several times ,for valid reasons, but they are still delays.
In one of ESG's latests releases they did mention the option they have of taking the gas north through Qld for export, this is definitely an option, it may have been expressed to put a rocket under some in the NSW approvals process.
So for sure the traders have abandoned this one for now, but there is a significant and expanding resource being developed by ESG and hopefully that will mean some dollars for its shareholders
I find it interesting that 12 months ago we were being berrated for even suggesting this stock might come back in the 70s (thanks kingcarmleo where ever you are). Now it's in the 60s people are talking down this stock. The basic fundamentals haven't changed. It has great land with some really good reserves. Management are pretty good and are moving ahead. The rains/floods have slowed the exploration down a bit but that is only a short term hickup. And with the news from Japan this weekend - surely gas fired power stations are going to become more popular than nuclear. The fundamentals for this stock have only grown stronger. Why are people only seeing the negative?
malachii
malachii
Takeover for Santos shares. Haven't done the figures but looks like a low ball offer compared to what we were getting a few years ago for takeovers. I still hold quite a few of these (my second largest holding). Haven't read all of the details but I'll be back soon to analyse.....
My thoughts exactly.
Santos indicates in their announcement of the offer that the implied value of $0.90 per share represents a 51% margin above ESG's closing price of $0.595 on July 15. Sure this is arithmetically correct, but in July 2009 ESG reached a high of $1.165. I would have thought that an attractive offer should have taken this into account.
Looks like ESG is selling out too cheaply and STO is getting a bargain at ESG shareholders expense, maybe an offer closer to $1.50 would be closer to the mark.
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This takeover price is ridiculous!!
If there are no revisions of the takeover price after the reserves upgrade then I hope everyone here will vote NO to the Scheme of Arrangement!!
The Australian's article represents investor sentiment..
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...icence-locked-in/story-e6frg9lo-1226097879982
Scroll down a bit to see the Eastern Star Gas article..
It's shame ESG's board replied with "Everyone is happy with the takeover price except for a noisy minority".
The noisy minority of retail investors have the power to vote the scheme down, lets hope everyone does it.
Logique
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Get onto the LYC thread as an example of how shareholders can stand up to the company. Contact the Australian Shareholders Association. This is opportunism, and a miserable outcome for loyal ESG shareholders. Don't let them get away with it.This takeover price is ridiculous!! ..The Australian's article represents investor sentiment...http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...icence-locked-in/story-e6frg9lo-1226097879982 The noisy minority of retail investors have the power to vote the scheme down, lets hope everyone does it.
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ESG has an action group and they have raised a point with ASIC about the TRU shareholders getting a guarantee of 90 cents per share when reg shareholders get crumbs or shares from a falling Santos
check out Hotcopper for more details http://******************/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=1565514&msgno=7259520#7259520
also make an online complaint to ASIC here http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.ns...ng+about+companies+or+people?openDocument#how
