ESG - Eastern Star Gas
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$3 for a stock that is currently mid 80's...
Well unless someone from ESG is giving unbelivable sexual pleasure to the big wigs at Santos I just can't see this price as anything remotely realistic but that's my
Although at least things are sorted with the tax rate, I guess Santos can get it sums right...
http://www.smh.com.au/money/on-the-...estments-still-on-the-nose-20100707-zzvr.html
Well unless someone from ESG is giving unbelivable sexual pleasure to the big wigs at Santos I just can't see this price as anything remotely realistic but that's my
Although at least things are sorted with the tax rate, I guess Santos can get it sums right...
http://www.smh.com.au/money/on-the-...estments-still-on-the-nose-20100707-zzvr.html
Thanks for an honest assessment of your valuation process Gunsmoke
I've held for a year or so and can see a lot of positives for this stock. One new positive which could emerge rapidly is if Federal Labors 'climate change' spruik includes putting the cutters through any further coal fired power stations. I'm a climate change skeptic, however we can certainly do without the particulate output and higher CO2 output of coalfired power when there is an alternative available within NSW
I've held for a year or so and can see a lot of positives for this stock. One new positive which could emerge rapidly is if Federal Labors 'climate change' spruik includes putting the cutters through any further coal fired power stations. I'm a climate change skeptic, however we can certainly do without the particulate output and higher CO2 output of coalfired power when there is an alternative available within NSW
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Thanks for an honest assessment of your valuation process Gunsmoke
I've held for a year or so and can see a lot of positives for this stock. One new positive which could emerge rapidly is if Federal Labors 'climate change' spruik includes putting the cutters through any further coal fired power stations. I'm a climate change skeptic, however we can certainly do without the particulate output and higher CO2 output of coalfired power when there is an alternative available within NSW
Good point, perhaps we should ask why then dirty coal is only attracting 30% tax rate instead of 40% in CSG area.
Climate Change and Julia dont seem to get along
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Gee whiz Gunsmoke you don't mind punting a bit!!
ESG is a gun. Many investors have been betting on some sort of takeover aka QGC and PES.Check out Grace's posts for some excellent analysis of this stock and the CSG industry in general.
Now will it happen soon and will the rest of us get a decent price? One would like to think so but after some of the creative work done by AWE in getting control of ADI for relative peanuts we can't be certain. In ADI's case the major shareholder AWE offered a lowball figure 40c which was rightly rejected by the ADI Board. There were then large sales made at a one cent above the the offer price. It was suggested that the buyers were hedge funds.
So a couple of weeks later AWE comes along with an offer of 42 cents! Their argument was that once they got control of the company they were going to change the Board and that with their substantial controlling interest no one else would be able to make a significant bid.
They got away with it too. Apparently the people who bought at 41c were happy to make the 1 cent profit. I think this was a dangerous precedent but I am highlighting it here because big companies do not want to pay a cent more than they have to in a takeover.
(By the way if anyone else has another take on the AWE/ADI takeover feel free to add your comment)
ESG is a gun. Many investors have been betting on some sort of takeover aka QGC and PES.Check out Grace's posts for some excellent analysis of this stock and the CSG industry in general.
Now will it happen soon and will the rest of us get a decent price? One would like to think so but after some of the creative work done by AWE in getting control of ADI for relative peanuts we can't be certain. In ADI's case the major shareholder AWE offered a lowball figure 40c which was rightly rejected by the ADI Board. There were then large sales made at a one cent above the the offer price. It was suggested that the buyers were hedge funds.
So a couple of weeks later AWE comes along with an offer of 42 cents! Their argument was that once they got control of the company they were going to change the Board and that with their substantial controlling interest no one else would be able to make a significant bid.
They got away with it too. Apparently the people who bought at 41c were happy to make the 1 cent profit. I think this was a dangerous precedent but I am highlighting it here because big companies do not want to pay a cent more than they have to in a takeover.
(By the way if anyone else has another take on the AWE/ADI takeover feel free to add your comment)
Dont get me wrong - I think ESG is a good company with good resources going somewhere...
However - if you think any company is going to pay a 250% premium on current price or 200% premium on the last price STO paid for ESG I think in the words of the great Darryl Kerrigan "Tell him he's dreaming".
I'm not a great believer in the efficient market hypothesis but big money hasn't got to be big money by being stupid either. Some of the greatest investment minds with large funds currently think that with all the information out in the market place, the share is currently worth mid 80 cents. While I think this company has the potential for a much higher price - without further evidence (re announcments from within the company and within the CSG sector) the price PROBABLY wont go much higher.
Several of us here rode QGC from a 20c stock to up in the $5. However this didn't happen overnight. It took several years of gradual growth. Each announcement building on the next. 2 steps forward 1 3/4 steps backwards. ESG will be the same. Can I see ESG getting to $3 - certainly. Do I expect it to do this quickly (ie in the next 12 months) - NO.
But I have been wrong before!!
malachii
PS I own shares in ESG do my opinion is very biased!!
However - if you think any company is going to pay a 250% premium on current price or 200% premium on the last price STO paid for ESG I think in the words of the great Darryl Kerrigan "Tell him he's dreaming".
I'm not a great believer in the efficient market hypothesis but big money hasn't got to be big money by being stupid either. Some of the greatest investment minds with large funds currently think that with all the information out in the market place, the share is currently worth mid 80 cents. While I think this company has the potential for a much higher price - without further evidence (re announcments from within the company and within the CSG sector) the price PROBABLY wont go much higher.
Several of us here rode QGC from a 20c stock to up in the $5. However this didn't happen overnight. It took several years of gradual growth. Each announcement building on the next. 2 steps forward 1 3/4 steps backwards. ESG will be the same. Can I see ESG getting to $3 - certainly. Do I expect it to do this quickly (ie in the next 12 months) - NO.
But I have been wrong before!!
malachii
PS I own shares in ESG do my opinion is very biased!!
PES was in the $2 plus range, and got taken out at $8.25 as I recall. It took two interested parties though to conduct the bidding war......do we have that here? Who would fight Santos for it? NSW is just different to QLD, and that is why I have made BOW my major holding now with ESG second place. It is easily worth $3 based on previous takeovers. Just wait for the stock market to collapse and see what happens with those remaining csg stocks. I think that the swooping will come when fear again takes hold. Just my thoughts though.
Hi Grace, from your previous post,
"PES was in the $2 plus range, and got taken out at $8.25 as I recall. It took two interested parties though to conduct the bidding war......do we have that here? Who would fight Santos for it?"
Do you think there would be any interest from AGK to shore up its domestic supplies post if and when Qld LNG export starts?? I have no idea what AGK's supply position is
Just wait for the stock market to collapse and see what happens with those remaining csg stocks.
The collapse /potential collapse you are talking about here is due to?? debt in the USA,debt in Europe, general slowdown, all of the above?? Care to expound briefly.
regards pointr
"PES was in the $2 plus range, and got taken out at $8.25 as I recall. It took two interested parties though to conduct the bidding war......do we have that here? Who would fight Santos for it?"
Do you think there would be any interest from AGK to shore up its domestic supplies post if and when Qld LNG export starts?? I have no idea what AGK's supply position is
Just wait for the stock market to collapse and see what happens with those remaining csg stocks.
The collapse /potential collapse you are talking about here is due to?? debt in the USA,debt in Europe, general slowdown, all of the above?? Care to expound briefly.
regards pointr
from hotcopper....
H,
Sadly for the impatient, Esg have an end plan and are well on the road to achieve that, they don't feel pressured to pump the price as it allows the shorters to manipulate. They are focused on their plan and are working diligently to achieve a strong outcome with Hitachi and Toyo. There will probably be an update on performance this month, but their main focus is on ratifying the Mous with Hitachi and Toyo and achieving a sale of significant volumes to a significant Japanese customer.
Think about it, there has not been a mention of the deal since they announced the Mou's the sheer size of the resource would be a huge attraction to a major to supply gas into an energy hungry Japan. Hitachi did not make the statement someone onerously picked up about 1 million tons a year being exported into Japan with the option with the modular plant design to increase the production facility in stages. The size of the deposit would warrant a connecting pipeline into Newcastle. I suspect Chris Sadler has been very very busy. I think our focus, that has been on Santos, has not allowed us, and the market to see this, whoever keeps buying in sporadic waves does though. Esg held up remarkably well in this last rout.
Remember David Knox words " this is a resource worth fighting over" The board of Esg know this to, they own over 12% of this company and they are fighting for it to, with another major player in the background. Sadler was not put on to oversee an easy takeover from Santos but to oversee what is in the best interests of the major shareholders in Esg who know that to throw all their eggs in one basket with Santos would cost them and the smaller investors dearly. Why do you think relations are frosty with Santos, why hasn't Santos been spruiking about their half billion dollar investment, and the results being achieved, the not to distant future will reveal why, IMHO of course,
ALH.
H,
Sadly for the impatient, Esg have an end plan and are well on the road to achieve that, they don't feel pressured to pump the price as it allows the shorters to manipulate. They are focused on their plan and are working diligently to achieve a strong outcome with Hitachi and Toyo. There will probably be an update on performance this month, but their main focus is on ratifying the Mous with Hitachi and Toyo and achieving a sale of significant volumes to a significant Japanese customer.
Think about it, there has not been a mention of the deal since they announced the Mou's the sheer size of the resource would be a huge attraction to a major to supply gas into an energy hungry Japan. Hitachi did not make the statement someone onerously picked up about 1 million tons a year being exported into Japan with the option with the modular plant design to increase the production facility in stages. The size of the deposit would warrant a connecting pipeline into Newcastle. I suspect Chris Sadler has been very very busy. I think our focus, that has been on Santos, has not allowed us, and the market to see this, whoever keeps buying in sporadic waves does though. Esg held up remarkably well in this last rout.
Remember David Knox words " this is a resource worth fighting over" The board of Esg know this to, they own over 12% of this company and they are fighting for it to, with another major player in the background. Sadler was not put on to oversee an easy takeover from Santos but to oversee what is in the best interests of the major shareholders in Esg who know that to throw all their eggs in one basket with Santos would cost them and the smaller investors dearly. Why do you think relations are frosty with Santos, why hasn't Santos been spruiking about their half billion dollar investment, and the results being achieved, the not to distant future will reveal why, IMHO of course,
ALH.
Santos cashed up for gas projects From: The Advertiser July 19, 2010 1:10PM Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizePrintEmail Share
Add to DiggAdd to del.icio.usAdd to FacebookAdd to KwoffAdd to MyspaceAdd to NewsvineWhat are these?SOUTH Australian oil and gas giant Santos now has access to $6 billion in funding for its Gladstone and Papua New Guinea projects.
Santos today announced it has executed a $2 billion bilateral bank loan facility to give its balance sheet flexibility for growth plans.
"This facility provides Santos with significant additional liquidity during the scheduled construction period of GLNG and PNG LNG and delivers average maturities beyond first LNG production from the two projects," the company said.
The development shows strong support for Santos by existing and new lenders.
"The facility was self-arranged and attracted total offers of A$2.9 billion from 13 banks,'' Santos said.
"Offers from nine banks were accepted.''
Including the new facility, Santos has $6 billion of available funding capacity, including cash and committed corporate and project debt facilities.
Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
Related CoverageGladstone: Santos gets environmental tick
Santos gets environmental tick Adelaide Now, 28 May 2010
PNG gas financing complete Adelaide Now, 16 Mar 2010
Finance seals deal The Australian, 15 Mar 2010
Exxon arranges record loans for PNG gas The Australian, 16 Dec 2009
PNG has approval for gas plan Courier Mail, 8 Dec 2009
.End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.
Shares in Santos added seven cents to $13.72 by 1242 AEST.
The Gladstone project is scheduled to begin production in 2014, while the PNG project is expected to do so in late 2013 or early 2014.
The new bank loan facility will be used to refinance the producer's existing $700 million of undrawn bilateral bank facilities that mature between 2011 and 2014, and to increase liquidity.
Santos executive vice president and chief financial officer Peter Wasow said the new facility matured after first LNG is produced at these two projects.
"The weighted average term of the new facility is five years,'' he said.
With AAP
Add to DiggAdd to del.icio.usAdd to FacebookAdd to KwoffAdd to MyspaceAdd to NewsvineWhat are these?SOUTH Australian oil and gas giant Santos now has access to $6 billion in funding for its Gladstone and Papua New Guinea projects.
Santos today announced it has executed a $2 billion bilateral bank loan facility to give its balance sheet flexibility for growth plans.
"This facility provides Santos with significant additional liquidity during the scheduled construction period of GLNG and PNG LNG and delivers average maturities beyond first LNG production from the two projects," the company said.
The development shows strong support for Santos by existing and new lenders.
"The facility was self-arranged and attracted total offers of A$2.9 billion from 13 banks,'' Santos said.
"Offers from nine banks were accepted.''
Including the new facility, Santos has $6 billion of available funding capacity, including cash and committed corporate and project debt facilities.
Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
Related CoverageGladstone: Santos gets environmental tick
Santos gets environmental tick Adelaide Now, 28 May 2010
PNG gas financing complete Adelaide Now, 16 Mar 2010
Finance seals deal The Australian, 15 Mar 2010
Exxon arranges record loans for PNG gas The Australian, 16 Dec 2009
PNG has approval for gas plan Courier Mail, 8 Dec 2009
.End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.
Shares in Santos added seven cents to $13.72 by 1242 AEST.
The Gladstone project is scheduled to begin production in 2014, while the PNG project is expected to do so in late 2013 or early 2014.
The new bank loan facility will be used to refinance the producer's existing $700 million of undrawn bilateral bank facilities that mature between 2011 and 2014, and to increase liquidity.
Santos executive vice president and chief financial officer Peter Wasow said the new facility matured after first LNG is produced at these two projects.
"The weighted average term of the new facility is five years,'' he said.
With AAP
Anyone else read the 'Open Briefing' released via ASX announcements today? I would rate it as positive and I wonder if it was meant to be read by the NSW government as well as the market. Putting the case that ESG's Gunnedah Basin project is a huge plus for NSW including a potential LNG industry at Newcastle but there will be pipes to take the gas north if NSW's approval process was too difficult.
Logique
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92c as I write, so it's decision time for STO. 1.40*.92=1.28, well I suppose if given favourable market conditions it could reach 1.28 technically without takeover offers, but then technically ESG has always been a mystery. Last couple of days on increased volume, and a nice 3 month uptrend underway.If ESG reaches 90c by mid week, STO will move immediately to prevent having to pay too much. The Octopus told me this!!
The only thing stopping them will be available funds.
ESG will want more then the usual 40% premium before they sell. I'm hoping for over $3. What do you guys think would be a fair price?
Re "92c as I write", Commsec site still shows them in a trading halt at 91.5. A major announcement today re capital raising for 1) Newcastle Port Land 2) Field development.3) Wilga Park Power Stn expansion. Seeking $100 million from memory from the big end of town for minimum 82c share fully underwritten.
Logique
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Edit: thanks guys, you beat me to it.
Equity raising announced today: raise A$100 mill, or representing 13.5% of issued share capital. Final issue price determined by insto's bookbuild, but underwritten floor price 0.82ps. Close 5pm today.
To acquire land at Kooragang Isl. ; fund exploration; fund development;drilling and expansion of Wilga Park.; feasibility studies for Narrabri field and LNG facility at Necastle; and pay some corporate costs.
For the retail investor will mean dilution in sp, but to the long term good of the company
Equity raising announced today: raise A$100 mill, or representing 13.5% of issued share capital. Final issue price determined by insto's bookbuild, but underwritten floor price 0.82ps. Close 5pm today.
To acquire land at Kooragang Isl. ; fund exploration; fund development;drilling and expansion of Wilga Park.; feasibility studies for Narrabri field and LNG facility at Necastle; and pay some corporate costs.
For the retail investor will mean dilution in sp, but to the long term good of the company
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At the outset I do not hold ESG any more.
But I could not digest the $100 M pill where 13.5% stakes were concerned and normal 'unsophisticated' investors were not invited to buy single cent ?
HOpe I did not report wrongly. Surely the market will react when trading halt is lifted .
I fail to understand why companies often fail to reward existing shareholders and ordinary investors at the same time they pamper large houses
.At the outset I do not hold ESG any more.
But I could not digest the $100 M pill where 13.5% stakes were concerned and normal 'unsophisticated' investors were not invited to buy single cent ?
HOpe I did not report wrongly. Surely the market will react when trading halt is lifted .
I fail to understand why companies often fail to reward existing shareholders and ordinary investors at the same time they pamper large houses
I often write to the board when this happens and the usual response is that they would like some more interesting parties on the share register, and that it is expensive to do a SPP. I am not convinced though.
Logique
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84 is it? Well, can live with that, could have been worse, and the new capital will be put to good use. Personally would start to take an interest if it reaches the 70s.
