Logique
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Also see a NZ Herald article mentioning ESG and Bow at: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10630971&ref=rss
Both in recent days.
Also see a NZ Herald article mentioning ESG and Bow at: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10630971&ref=rss“Both Eastern Star and Arrow Energy are in the coal-seam gas space, so whenever there’s a takeover of one company, people will suggest that the other one’s next off the block,” Chris Weston, an institutional dealer at IG Markets in Melbourne, said in a telephone interview. “Oil Search is also leveraged in this space.”
Eastern Star in particular, with its “relatively good assets,” and “attractive” price, may be seen as a potential target, Weston said.
Quote from Bloomberg article at URL: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=azb2EpuQcc9w
Has anybody done an analysis on Arrow's reserves versus ESG's reserves then do a price comparison ??
It would be interesting to see what ESG would be worth as an exact comparison based on reserves with Arrow??
While not specifically about ESG but certainly of relevance to the space in which it operates, ie east coast CBM. Bloombergs is reporting that Martin Ferguson will be in Bejing today for the signing of a BIG LNG contract.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a9gAkUQ4XWXI
The LNG to come from the Curtis Island project in Gladstone. It is news like this that underpins the value of east coast CBM reserves for both exporters and local energy companies trying to secure gas for their businesses in Australia. So ESG keep drilling and increasing the resource and reserves, at some point there should be rewards for the patient
Interesting. Given the price based on AOE metrics and risk of further capital issuance, think I will avoid ESG. I hold AOE and was thinking of moving some of the money across to ESG, but current share price a bit rich for me.
Interesting.
I rather see their value at what Santos values them at.
So what do you think would be a fair price to which you'd come in at?
Around 70 cents would be appealing for me as this provides a good discount to the AOE metrics. I just can not see much upside in current price without a bid being made. Obviously if the bid comes in, then there is plenty of upside.
jancha,
I tend to agree with gooner on this one.
Fundamentally - ESG is worth north of $1. However in this current market all the good news about ESG reserves, good management etc have been factored in and the takeover interest caused by AOE has made the market drive the price to about the 90cent range. I think you'll find (barring any amazingly fantastic brilliant unexpected find/takeover offer) that the price will drift back down into the mid 70s (or maybe even into the 60s) over the next few weeks/months as the interest in the sector wanes. Heaven help the price if the company releases any bad or even OK news over the next couple of months.
The next hurdle for the sector is not so much locating the gas deposits - as finding something to do with them. The market is waiting to see what happens with the LNG plants out at Gladstone and then if there will be a massive oversupply of LNG in the Asian region. Until this starts to settle - there remains a "question mark" over the viability of the industry. Remember that while CSG is currently used domestically - and will be for a long time - we now have so much as a resource that unless we can export it efficiently - it is of no real use.
This is my opinion only - do your own research. I am a firm believer in this industry and have several large investments in it with various companies. I was an early investor in QGC when it was proving that CSG could be actually used for anything at all. To me, this is just the next phase of "proving" for the industry. It will get through it but it is still a risk that the market is factoring in (and rightly so!).
malachii[/QUOTE
All valid points Malashii & appreciate it. I personally like ESG long term & the only reason i'd sell is if i felt they would drop in sp only so to accumulate more shares at a lower price as i did with AOE.
Knowing my luck tho the moment i sell as you said a takeover or large find will occur & i would have missed the boat.
Just sitting tight on this one.
..However in this current market all the good news about ESG reserves, good management etc have been factored in and the takeover interest caused by AOE has made the market drive the price to about the 90cent range. I think you'll find (barring any amazingly fantastic brilliant unexpected find/takeover offer) that the price will drift back down into the mid 70s (or maybe even into the 60s) over the next few weeks/months as the interest in the sector wanes. Heaven help the price if the company releases any bad or even OK news over the next couple of months.
malachii
Philly,
Unless I'm mistaken this will be sourced from the QGC reserves that BG purchased last year and put through their proposed LNG plant in Gladstone.
Again - this is emphasising the fact that the market "hopes" that CSG is able to be processed into LNG and transported effeciently to China. It also touches on the "hope" that China doesn't have any bumps in the "miracle economic" growth story and that there is not an oversupply of LNG in Asia over the next decade. Bear in mind that IF all the LNG plants (including the PNG LNG) plants come on line over the next 5 or so years - there will be much more LNG available than required. Basic supply and demand equation....
malachii
kingcarmleo
Sorry - not sure what your getting at. I do get it and have understood and invested in this sector for many years. Before you blow your top may I politely suggest you read previous posts and comments made by myself and others.
You will also note that I (although I must admit to not putting the declaration on today - brain fade!!) declare in most previous posts that I am a substantial holder of ESG shares.
I think you should also be careful. At this stage NO company has spent billions of dollars on infrastructure for CSG to LNG. All infrastructure at this stage is in planning and none have "turned the first sod" or even got full approvals. A few have "significant status" standing from the state government. No company has yet proven that they can even turn CSG into LNG efficiently. Realistically - nobody expects this to be a major problem but the market will still factor the risk into the price until proven otherwise.
The "gas glut" as you call it may have been spun out of a few media reports (I dont know what media reports you are referring too) but it doesn't take much research to see how much is predicted to come online over the next decade and compare it to current usage and growth to come to the conclusion that there is a lot of people going to be looking for customers. That was one of the significant things about the AOE takeover - that it came with a large customer (Petro China).
Anyway - happy to discuss further but not happy to be abused for having a researched opinion.
malachii
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