ERA - Energy Resources of Australia

[RichKid]

Three of the bigger holders of ERA are about to sell out. Possibility of ERA joining the ASX200 as a result. Good article in The Australian: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16877247%5E16941,00.html

 

[Mellow77]

I wonder why nobody comments on this one. 47% rise in less than a month is pretty good, is it not? I wish all my horses perform like it
Probably going to sell half of my holdings tmrw or this week.
What do you reckon?

Thanx to all.

 

[nizar]

I wonder why nobody comments on this one. 47% rise in less than a month is pretty good, is it not? I wish all my horses perform like it
Probably going to sell half of my holdings tmrw or this week.
What do you reckon?

Thanx to all.

i reckon this is a dog

they are selling their uranium at us$16.50/lb as per long-term contracts.

i called the company early this week, they said that no uranium will be sold under the re-negotiated contract prices (at spot) for at least 2 years. So us$16.50/lb it stays at least for a while.

as for jabiluka, they are still waiting for permission from the traditional people before going ahead with development.

poor mine life as well.

 

[sleeper88]

will jabiluka ever get started?

 

[Mellow77]

hmmmmmmmmm I see. Actually I knew about the low contract prices, but I also read that some should be renegotiated by the end of this year & with actual mining & stock piles it could help the price up. That's why I bought it. Unfortunately I did not save the link/article.

Strange deals they have. But the bottom line is that the price went up.

I learnt from this forum & others that profit taking is never bad, so going to sell the half. I can not be so greedy, yah?

Thanx for the info

 

[laurie]

Yehaaaaa $19.400 +$1.550 go you good thing

cheers laurie

 

[Sean K]

Yehaaaaa $19.400 +$1.550 go you good thing

cheers laurie

Your shout Laurie. :alcohol: With this a AGS you must be doing quite fine!

 

[Sean K]

I don't think I have seen a more bullish report than this from a broker:

JP Morgan rates the stock as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral - Watch and remain in awe... it''s not an everyday event that a stockbroker decides to catch up with reality, resulting in an price target increase from $11.11 to $32!

JP Morgan has reviewed the uranium market dynamics and outlook and has now placed an average price forecast of US$90/lb for 2007 in its models.

Regarding the revised target, the analysts suggest the stock might well trade higher at some stage as ERA is "the only large uranium producer [in Australia] with long established sales relationships and exploration upside, [and therefore] we believe a premium to NPV is easily justifiable". Voila!

Target price is $32.00. Current Price is $17.85 Difference:$14.15 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ERA meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 79%.

The company''s fiscal year ends in December. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY06 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.95%. At the last closing share price the stock''s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.97.

 

[nizar]

I don't think I have seen a more bullish report than this from a broker:

JP Morgan rates the stock as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral - Watch and remain in awe... it''s not an everyday event that a stockbroker decides to catch up with reality, resulting in an price target increase from $11.11 to $32!

JP Morgan has reviewed the uranium market dynamics and outlook and has now placed an average price forecast of US$90/lb for 2007 in its models.

Regarding the revised target, the analysts suggest the stock might well trade higher at some stage as ERA is "the only large uranium producer [in Australia] with long established sales relationships and exploration upside, [and therefore] we believe a premium to NPV is easily justifiable". Voila!

Target price is $32.00. Current Price is $17.85 Difference:$14.15 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ERA meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 79%.

The company''s fiscal year ends in December. JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY06 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.95%. At the last closing share price the stock''s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.97.

wow, impressive.
too bad they sell their uranium at us$16.50/lb and will do so for the next 2 years

but its going up, probably worth it to jump on, technical breakout all time highs blue skies now.

 

[Gurgler]

I'm surprised there is so little comment on this stock - last post mid-Nov.

Now today this posting on FN Arena:

Consolidation Revalues ERA, Paladin
FN Arena News - February 13 2007

By Greg Peel

Canada's SXR Uranium One has entered into an agreement to buy all the shares of co-Canadian (but with production in Kazakhstan) UrAsia to form the world's second largest uranium producer by market capitalisation.

UBS analysts have crunched the numbers implicit from the bid, and arrived at a valuation of uranium resource of US$31.61/lb.

Australian listed exploration companies tend to trade at only US$16/lb, the analysts note, up from US$9/lb last year. But more important is the valuation implications for Australia's two uranium pure-plays (which are actually producing uranium), Energy Resources Australia (ERA) and Paladin Resources (PDN).

Applying the resource valuation implies a share price valuation for Paladin of $16.86. Equivalently, ERA would be valued at $44.04. Add Jabiluka, and ERA would be worth $100.


Anyone else holding this stock?

 

[laurie]

Just watch this go past BHP sp! and ERA are still selling at approx $18/lb under existing contracts and Jabiluka is still there once the traditional owners decide what they are going to do and all of this in the N.T. could see $30 within a month and any more bad news from Cigar Lake will just suit ERA with new contracts

cheers laurie

 

[subi1]

It is interesting how some people are carrying on about the contracts but from what I can understand they are one of only 4 miners allowed to mine uranium in Australia at this stage. The explorers might not even start to produce by the time the contracts are renegoiated or in fact they may never produce.

Hopefully by time the contracts are negotiated(or before) they will have increased there reserves from Ranger as well.

Time will tell all.

 

[michael_selway]

It is interesting how some people are carrying on about the contracts but from what I can understand they are one of only 4 miners allowed to mine uranium in Australia at this stage. The explorers might not even start to produce by the time the contracts are renegoiated or in fact they may never produce.

Hopefully by time the contracts are negotiated(or before) they will have increased there reserves from Ranger as well.

Time will tell all.

Hi do you know what the mine life for ERA is?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 22.9 55.3 95.2 149.0
DPS 17.0 35.0 77.8 110.9


thx

MS

 

[mmmmining]

Hi do you know what the mine life for ERA is?

MS

Michael, it depends, mostly on the uranium price, production rate, and lady lucky. Higher grade, they can use more lower grade, and going depth, more pay for the elders,....

For your modeling, you might try Limited Perpetual.

 

[Go Nuke]

Would Paladin be the next closest Uranium grp to ERA?

PDN just isn't stopping like ERA.

Hope they both come down to earth a bit...then i might buy
Otherwise...I hope Ive not missed the boat on these 2

:microwave

 

[Bush Trader]

Has anyone considered the RIO factor when analysing this stock? Remember they hold the majority of the cards, which means the stock is a Koala Bear of sorts.

 

[Go Nuke]

Looking at the past history of PDN...Im guessing the share price should fall to around the $9.40 mark.

Now I know virtually NOTHING about shares..so this is like a little test for me
Its all based on asending triangles and resistance lines etc.

Anyone agree with me? Or am I completely crazy?

 

[x2rider]

Go nuke

Might be a bit harsh at $ 9.40 for PDn. The gap yesterday had to be filled so that would come to $9.90 . With the underlying trend line I sort of get a price of about $9.60 . $10.00 today was a great day after the large gain the day before . There was some real " buy at all cost " yesterday as people thought that they would miss out . I expect the price to hang around withinn a couple of % for the next few days . I suppose the next big news will be the cigar lake fiasco
Cheers martin

Might move this to PDN thanks mods

 

[laurie]

It is interesting how some people are carrying on about the contracts but from what I can understand they are one of only 4 miners allowed to mine uranium in Australia at this stage. The explorers might not even start to produce by the time the contracts are renegoiated or in fact they may never produce.

Hopefully by time the contracts are negotiated(or before) they will have increased there reserves from Ranger as well.

Time will tell all.

Sorry I'm confused the reason people carry on about contracts is because thats the bottom line that earns $$$$ and which we get dividends from and the way prices are moving up the next contracts may well be for $100+ even though the price now is $80 but I bet you ERA will sell at spot prices its one thing to lock in falling prices but the way its moving up it would be foolish to lock any price target unless you have a crystal ball

cheers laurie

 

[subi1]

The point I was making is that ERA are actually a producer and are getting income. As good as some of the explorers look they may not be in production for a long time. By then hopefully ERA will be on all new contracts at much higher prices. Also they are actively drilling to try to increase their reserves.

Cheers
Gary