Energy Fever

[doctorj]

With oil prices charging higher and serious questions being raised about the ability of the market to withstand another Middle Eastern war, major terrorist strike or widespread work stoppages it seems the market is shifting its attention to energy.

Reefton Mining (ASX: RTM) put on just shy of 26% today on the back of more than 76,000,000 shares traded. All they really had to say was that they'd confirmed old surveys that there was uranium with a geiger counter. It will take weeks before they even are able to begin to attach meaningful numbers to the survey.

With that in mind and the changing attitudes of governments and individuals to uranium bought about by rising energy prices and the Kyoto protocal, I would like to start a search for other Uranium explorers traded on the ASX with good management. Exploring for uranium abroad in jurisdictions that aren't as prohibitive as Australia is a plus, as is exploration near to areas with proven resources and an operating mine. I will be looking over the coming days and will post results here. Please feel free to chip in with any analysis of your own - including any abuse from people that think the entire premise is a long way off the mark.

 

[Smurf1976]

Some brief background info that may be of interest:

1. There is simply no way the oil market can cope with loss of production from Iran in the event of war without either a substantial fall in demand or drawing down stocks. (Assuming that we are talking about a total or at least substantial loss of Iran's production during such a war.) The required production capacity simply does not exist and will not exist if demand growth continues to follow recent and forecast trends.

2. The Kyoto Protocol is known to many in the energy industry as "The Nuclear Protocol". The nuclear industry was always its strongest supporter. Many of the countries that have signed Kyoto use nuclear to reduce emissions. Even New Zealand is having the nuclear energy debate.

Uranium prices are up sharply. The present rate of consumption greatly exceeds the rate of mining with the balance drawn from stocks. These stocks are running low. Lack of supply of uranium threatens many countries' ability to comply with the Kyoto Protocol.

Uranium cost is such a small part of total nuclear generation cost that prices could be bid up very high in a shortage situation.

As a point of interest, not intended as a political comment, if Australia used nuclear and hydro electricity at the same % level as other developed countries (we have no nuclear and less hydro (60% of which is in Tasmania) than average) that would reduce our energy related greenhouse gas emissions, from all sources (not just electricity) by around 15%. If we went nuclear to the extent that France has then the cut in emissions would be far greater. Hence the increased attractiveness of nuclear energy.

The tight timeframes of Kyoto are such as to effectively preclude renewable energy from playing a major role in compliance. There is simply not enough time to develop the schemes (hydro) or the manufacturing facilities (wind) that are necessary. Pebble bed nuclear plants (new technology) thus appear to have a large role to play. They will, of course, need uranium to operate.

There is insufficient natural gas worldwide (discovery peaked in the 1970's) and especially in North America to use that as a means of meeting Kyoto targets (natural gas is 44% less polluting than black coal and about 30% less than oil). Much of the gas is likely to be used as a substitute for crude oil as supplies of that fuel fall short of demand in the coming years.

Just for info, you decide whether or not there's a financial opportunity you wish to exploit.

 

[doctorj]

Small/Mid cap uranium related stocks (ratio of current price to year open price in brackets):

RTM (362%)
ONC (355%)
DYL (326%)
SMM (264%)
MUR (256%)
PDN (242%)
ERA (202%)
CMR (197%)
ARU (153%)
GIR (145%)
IVK (133%)
SIM (119%)

Will look closer into the above companies for realistic prospects, any comments appreciated.

As a little something else for the rumour mill, as at 6 Oct 2004, Aztec held the following interests in uranium discoveries (source: http://www.antenna.nl/wise/uranium/ucazr.html).
# (75%) - Nowthanna deposit, Western Australia
# (100%) - Millepede/Abercromby deposit, Western Australia
# (100%) - Lake Maitland deposit, Western Australia
# (100%) - Cogla Downs project, Western Australia
# (100%) - Anketell project, Western Australia
# (100%) - Wondinong project, Western Australia
# (70%) - Lakeside deposit, Western Australia
# (100%) - Lake Mason project, Western Australia
# (100%) - Turee Creek deposit, Western Australia

 

[doctorj]

Uranium mining in the NT to be judged on a "case by case" basis by the Federal Government. Ian McFarlane calls on Queensland and Western Australia to open up to Uranium mining.

(Ratio of current price:year open)
RTM (Woof!)
DYL (684%)
SMM (355%)
MUR (202%)
PDN (328%)
ERA (247%)
CMR (422%)
ARU (266%)
GIR (171%)
IVK (88%)
SIM (153%)

More:
ADN AGS KY BLN BMN BTV CUY EME EQN GDM GRG HMR JRL KAL MTN OMC PNN RPT RRS RSG SAU SCX

I guess if you were a fundamentalist, you'd first be looking for companies with ground in the NT with an advanced exploration program.

Off the top of my head (no warranties, implied or otherwise), these include ARU, CMR, DYL, ERA, MTN.

 

[greggles]

The market is shifting its focus to energy again with global energy prices rising as demand increases. The question is, where are the real opportunities going to be found this time around? Fossil fuel, renewables, nuclear, lithium and rare earths, miners, producers... it seems like the energy market is evolving as the western world moves towards cleaner energy while the demand for coal and other fossil fuels from the developing world continues unabated.

It's energy fever again in 2021, but where is the real long term growth going to come from?

 

[Sean K]

The market is shifting its focus to energy again with global energy prices rising as demand increases. The question is, where are the real opportunities going to be found this time around? Fossil fuel, renewables, nuclear, lithium and rare earths, miners, producers... it seems like the energy market is evolving as the western world moves towards cleaner energy while the demand for coal and other fossil fuels from the developing world continues unabated.

It's energy fever again in 2021, but where is the real long term growth going to come from?

I think it's going to come from:

Fossil fuel, renewables, nuclear, lithium and rare earths, miners, producers.

It's probably going to swing between all of the above and it's just a matter of hitching on to what's having a run, or be the contrarian and go where there's no love expecting it to go back to the mean. Or, just buy everything to hedge with long term plan.

Those say FF is dead probably haven't watched the price or oil and coal recently.