CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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What did you do before you retired young, Retired Young?
End of the China bull?
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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What did you do before you retired young, Retired Young?
DeepState
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What did you do before you retired young, Retired Young?
I once headed a team that managed a lot of money, using some unbelievably cool techniques, with some of the brightest minds on the planet. Together, we touched the sky. Along the way I had the opportunity to work alongside some of the world's best investors...those guys/gals actually were RockStars. Many are now centi-millionaires. Now, I just want to see my kids grow up and be with my wife because that's even cooler.
What about you?
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What sort of returns are we talking about? 500% plus?
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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DeepState
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Wow, cool
Just like me. ...and loving it.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Yeah, similar...except our first is on the way and I'm going back to work....
In China again too....
Ahh well, only another 3.5 years to go! Hopefully the riots hold off until we leave...
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The Chinese leadership is the most vetted position on earth the veters are the previous leaders and power brokers sitting in the back rooms there's about 3 of them who give the final nod!
The democracy claim is one of the classic CCP propaganda statements and the ridiculous notion of the democratic CCP process has even got nothing to do with all the (princlings) sitting in all the CCP chairs. It's a simple weighed up corporate decision made in the back room with one objective - keep the status quo which means 'our' control, power and privilege over the people whilst making a revolution impossible via any and every means possible.
What is surprising to me is that the inevitable distortions are so blatant and obvious yet half witted economists are still contemplating if there is a an issue or not. Overbuild, pollution, over population, corruption, distorted wealth distribution all making economic maturity impossible with much wealth now been funneled out of the basket case economy by the few who have it because they need to get it out into real economies and uncorrupted investments outside the pretend economy.
Alibaba here we come.
I'll be surprised if China inc manages to stay on the rails longer than another 2 years.
DeepState
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Thanks for continuing to express your views.
I was surprised to see President Xi make that statement. However, I think it has some merit. To be a candidate for the top job, you're not going to be total fool. You will be competent and smart and strong. Even if you are a puppet of the factions within the CCP, they will not put up a Sir Humphrey. In a prior post, you lauded Xi as the best leader China has had in the last 60 years...even better than Deng Xiaoping who, despite having to harshly hold order, opened the country to market forces and which dramatically improved quality of life from the Mao era and the disaster of the policies which he produced and what followed after his demise via the Gang of Four. That's a big nod. So, although clearly vetted by Zhang, who sat on the podium looking rather awkward when the Presidency was handed over, I think we agree that a good man is at the helm who had to survive a lot to get there and who had to convince a lot of people along the way that he was capable.
I agree that the objective of the CCP organism is to keep itself alive. It will even kick out less important members amongst itself to ensure the survival of the elite. Strangely, that's what democracies/plutocracies like the US also do. But let's not go there.
In the past, the CCP was prepared to engage in wholesale violation of anything you might call human rights. It had nothing economically to speak for, so suppression and disinformation are the only tools you have. That's not the case anymore. The CCP acts as if, and knows, that economic success is a major, if not the key, determinant of its survival. If it doesn't generate enough growth to keep people fed and in jobs, the fabric of society will be at increased risk of unraveling and the anger at the system will spill. How many 10s of thousands of protests were there last year? At that's when the economy is growing at around 8% per annum. So, I submit that the interests of the CCP are aligned with ongoing economic success. Their actions are consistent with that.
You argue that the problems are too big and complex to resolve. Who knows? Looking at certain stats like credit growth in the last five years, demographics, excess capacity....can scare anyone. It does have the look of a falling building. Capital is leaving via illegal means and this does indicate a loss of faith. But when you have massive financial suppression in place, who wouldn't be trying to get their capital out? It was the means to support the banking system. If you like, really low deposits rates are a form of taxation on savers which is transferred to the banking system to keep it strong. This is actually a form of Quantitative Easing which led to rampant asset inflation visible in property prices. It is now being slowly deflated. Just one of many things going on in the plumbing of the economy. I do not know if it will be successful, but market pricing of securities tightly linked to these outcomes are betting it will be pretty much alright - although there is a premium for risk over, say, Australia.
It is not appropriate for us, you and me, to extrapolate the past. Policy changes. Again, who knows if it will be enough.
Many say the US economy and Leviathan is also on the verge of collapse. Several indicators point to that as well. And, if you look at France and Italy's economies, they are also a disaster. And Japan...nothing makes sense there at all. It should have slid into the ocean 10 years ago. We could make the argument that we are on the verge of the collapse of the modern economies...along with China. And it could be taken seriously.
I shall finish with Buffett (paraphrased and mashed): If you feel the US is in a bad state now and want to bet against it, what would you have done in 1776 when it was in a war for survival and had nothing. And went on to become the greatest superpower the world has ever seen.
Is China in a worse state today than when Deng took the reins and led one of the greatest emergences from outright mass poverty the world has ever seen? No way. Would you have bet against China at the time of the Gang of Four? I would have...and I would have been dead wrong.
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debate on this thread is quite interesting: this is what I enjoy in the ASF.
Retired Young: well done, I wish I could retire early as well, and I work on it, Can Oz good luck for number one..life will change we all hope we will keep seeing you on the forum.
China..I am puzzled, lately all my rational train of thoughts fail, real estate prices here in Oz still go higher and higher and even the Oz dollar is going up while I see jobs diseappearing everywhere...
So how can i have a clue on China; i do know for sure their leaders have more power than us as they can plan past the next election and this is what is killing our democraties..so who knows, they might sort the mess out
Retired Young: well done, I wish I could retire early as well, and I work on it, Can Oz good luck for number one..life will change we all hope we will keep seeing you on the forum.
China..I am puzzled, lately all my rational train of thoughts fail, real estate prices here in Oz still go higher and higher and even the Oz dollar is going up while I see jobs diseappearing everywhere...
So how can i have a clue on China; i do know for sure their leaders have more power than us as they can plan past the next election and this is what is killing our democraties..so who knows, they might sort the mess out
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Too short sighted and too narrow minded.
China is in a far worse state than it has ever been.
Lifting a minority out of poverty during relatively small window of time whist you use the rest of the populous as slaves and destroy the environment in which you live whilst you do it- spells - at the expense of everything is not progress, betterment or genuine enrichment!
Not to mention structured corruption at every level of social order (which is tantamount to stage 5 social cancer), Aging population without the population growth to support it from over breading to under breading, I could go on and on.
Deng used to say 'too early to tell'.
Time is up not too soon.
China is in a far worse state than it has ever been.
Lifting a minority out of poverty during relatively small window of time whist you use the rest of the populous as slaves and destroy the environment in which you live whilst you do it- spells - at the expense of everything is not progress, betterment or genuine enrichment!
Not to mention structured corruption at every level of social order (which is tantamount to stage 5 social cancer), Aging population without the population growth to support it from over breading to under breading, I could go on and on.
Deng used to say 'too early to tell'.
Time is up not too soon.
DeepState
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It was Zhou Enlai who made that statement about the French Revolution (partly disputed). In that spirit of long history and being too soon to tell, I think China may encounter some significant challenges over the next 200 years. I agree with you wholeheartedly. Thanks.
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Essentially, globally, "the Systems" are in the process of failure already - all we are doing is directing always excess $USD's around the planet to the latest money maker by the money shufflers......
"the Systems" are Financial & Ecological.
Make your hay.......while the masses still have faith in the elected yes-people!
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DeepState
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Just for balance, this is the latest from Gordon Chang (Forbes) with supporting data from UBS' China team:
Also note that growth in off balance sheet lending remains largely unchanged from mid-2013 (before Credit equals Gold etc.) despite increased focus on adding risk and repatriating these back to on balance sheet assets.
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Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Gee whiz. I switched on ABC news in the middle of a report on Chinese property bubble burst and loan defaults highest since 2006.
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China Property Collapse Has Begun - Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/04/13/china-property-collapse-has-begun/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2014/04/13/china-property-collapse-has-begun/
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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This article is over a month old and the HHI and HSI have both rallied since, indicating some faith in the easing of credit.
The question is, can this stop the accelerated decline of housing prices in China? I believe once everyone starts to liquidate we should get a bit of a panic. The easing of credit here should slow down the acceleration, but hopefully it won't stop the decline that has to happen eventually. Taking some heat out of this property market is a good thing right now.
