End of the China bull?

[notting]

It's possible to paint quite a rosie picture with the 200 million or so privileged class, that have managed to rise to the surface on the back of the slave-domes.
However, if you try some simple thing like visiting some factories or any of the other situations I have mentioned, with some cameras, - without an 'official guide' then you will see how far you get when trying to uncover the bigger picture!!
I know lots of people from China!! They are ones who have escaped not the privileged allowed out. That's where I get the information from!! I was also very close to the dealings Telstra did and was talking to people involved at the time, I was telling them to question why they paying billions, they ignored me and lost billions!! So I see it from the top down and bottom up.

 

[CanOz]

It's possible to paint quite a rosie picture with the 200 million or so privileged class, that have managed to rise to the surface on the back of the slave-domes.
However, if you try some simple thing like visiting some factories or any of the other situations I have mentioned, with some cameras, - without an 'official guide' then you will see how far you get when trying to uncover the bigger picture!!
I know lots of people from China!! They are ones who have escaped not the privileged allowed out. That's where I get the information from!! I was also very close to the dealings Telstra did and was talking to people involved at the time, I was telling them to question why they paying billions, they ignored me and lost billions!! So I see it from the top down and bottom up.

I'm living it mate....been here for nearly 7 years.....married to a stunning Gal in the heart of factory country....

Give it a rest...

CanOz

 

[notting]

I'm living it mate

Stunning.

[video]http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DuqwK_-xH6UA&v=uqwK_-xH6UA&gl=AU[/video]

 

[notting]

This was supposed to be the link in response to "Give it a rest mate"

I don't know, I kind of think it's important to know what your dealing with, and understand why it was important to keep Huawei out of our NBN and so many other things.
People just don't take much notice of what look like insignificant events like the way the Chinese president was in Europe just as it seemed Greece was on the verge of collapse. The Chinese were making comments like "China will help" "What are friends for, at the time of need!!!" They did nothing. They just tried to get more power whilst they were looking like they might help. They called East Turkesta and Tibet friends and made all sorts of offers and nice gestures before they invaded them, committed genocide and added there populations to their slavery and concentration camps like the ones mentioned in the video.

 

[notting]

Bo Xilai's Wife Gu Kailai Named Murder Suspect.
Bo must have become so used to murdering that he got a bit slack and murdered and Englishman. It's a little harder to cover up it seems when it's a free country person.
I love my wife. She did it!

http://english.ntdtv.com/ntdtv_en/news_china/2012-04-10/Bo-Xilai-s-Wife-Gu-Kailai-Named-Murder-Suspect.html

Meanwhile the Chinese army province of North Korea is testing missiles and upgrading its intentions to do bigger and better ones!!!! It's OK they have plenty of cheaper fuel supplies for their activities - Iran has great capacity at present.

 

[register]

China's new export orders index

export orders index

 

[Uncle Festivus]

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) ”” Chinese economic data for April printed weaker than expected, adding to evidence of an accelerating slowdown and highlighting what some analysts said was the need for government action to stabilize the rate of decline.

China’s industrial output rose 9.3% in April, while retail sales were up 14.1% for the month, official data showed Friday.

A Dow Jones Newswires had tipped industrial production to rise 12.2%, while a Bloomberg News survey had forecast a 15.1% for retail sales.

Fixed-asset investment in urban areas rose 20.2% in the January-to-April period, shy of Bloomberg-survey expectations for 20.5% rise.

“Today’s data on April spending and output put another nail into hopes that China’s economy is bottoming out,” Capital Economic analysts said in a note following the data release.

IHS Global Insight analysts highlighted concern over the slowing rate of growth in industrial production, as the April gain in output was 2.6 percentage points below levels in March, marking the fastest slowdown since a 2.8-point drop in June 2010.

The last time China’s growth decelerated by such a rate, it sparked widespread market panic, they said.
“China’s economy is even weaker than thought, with industrial production growth back in single digits for the first time since the global financial crisis, and electricity production flat-lining,” the IHS Global analysts said, referring to addition data showing electrical output up just 0.7% year-on-year.

On a month-on-month annualized basis, industrial production growth in April was 4.3%.

“Looking forward, what is to be watched is how fast the government can stabilize the deceleration,” IHS said.

 

[notting]

There are of course individual opportunities if you are happy to become a 24 hour passive smoker.

However, all I have been able to find is cold bones with big horns lying in the field and billions of ants still crawling all over them looking for something to eat. This has been the case for about 5 years, despite the growth.
Even the current sidewinder appears to be making a lower high. You'd almost be starting to look under your calves for a big boy if the mother wasn't a mad cow!!

"Tiger tiger burning bright,
In the forest of the night,
What dread hand, what dread feet,
Framed thy fearful symmetry?"
William Blake (expressing his sentiments for our loving father!)

 

[Joules MM1]

Chinese economic data for April printed weaker than expected, adding to evidence of an accelerating slowdown and highlighting what some analysts said was the need for government action to stabilize the rate of decline.

China’s industrial output (still) rose 9.3% in April, while retail sales were (still) up 14.1% for the month, official data showed Friday.

A Dow Jones Newswires had tipped industrial production to rise 12.2%, while a Bloomberg News survey had forecast a 15.1% for retail sales.

Fixed-asset investment in urban areas rose 20.2% in the January-to-April period, shy of Bloomberg-survey expectations for 20.5% rise.

“Today’s data on April spending and output put another nail into hopes that China’s economy is bottoming out,” Capital Economic analysts said in a note following the data release.

IHS Global Insight analysts highlighted concern over the slowing rate of growth in industrial production, as the April gain in output was 2.6 percentage points below levels in March, marking the fastest slowdown since a 2.8-point drop in June 2010.

The last time China’s growth decelerated by such a rate, it sparked widespread market panic, they said.
“China’s economy is even weaker than thought, with industrial production growth back in single digits for the first time since the global financial crisis, and electricity production flat-lining,” the IHS Global analysts said, referring to addition data showing electrical output up just 0.7% year-on-year.
On a month-on-month annualized basis, industrial production growth in April was 4.3%. “Looking forward, what is to be watched is how fast the government can stabilize the deceleration,” IHS said.

always good to stretch the argumentative biasing of media selections, that is, text designed to sell news not to educate or allow for a forward thinking process

there's some logic you dont see everyday: "accelerating slowdown" ....to what ? is there a stopping point? do the analysts who've gotten the latest numbers wrong tip what that stop level is going to be?

so analysts like decline, erm, just not too fast and we have no idea what that speed should be....with all the tipping and forecasting, no one got anything right......doesnt that also mean equal weight goes the other way too? All measurable numbers being relative, aren't the numbers good numbers in themselves from a steady growth point of view, maybe within larger tolerances of means and averages? Are cycles not allowed in bull phases anymore?....are the tipping analysts a contrarian indicator of a low formation not a dooming death nell?

the best measure the analysts came up with, because their expectations/tips/forecasts werent met was "another nail"

the article even managed to slip in the panic word via a quote.....classic....
and Bloomberg surveys, yeah, hang your trading hat on that one!

my questions are....about that forward thinking process: were there any short or long trades in this information, do we know what levels to trade, was there actually anything tangible other than the numbers quoted?

come back, media watch, all is forgiven

saturday browsing the web......tis the life....

 

[notting]

Interesting article.
http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20120503/why-china-could-be-the-next-destination-for-the-financial-crisis.html

 

[Uncle Festivus]

there's some logic you dont see everyday: "accelerating slowdown" ....to what ? is there a stopping point? do the analysts who've gotten the latest numbers wrong tip what that stop level is going to be?

Not quite sure what you are saying but....

My basic premise, from post 1, is that the China model is structurally unsustainable, and that eventually there is going to be a so called 'hard landing'. When their 'system' is based on a hybrid of 'capitalism' & so called communism (like that went out the door years ago when the red oligarchs got their first smell of money) then you get mis alocation of money & resources firstly to make the 1% rich & secondly to keep the overpopulated employed.

The bottom line - even by the official figures it's about to get even uglier, especially since the rest of the world continues to think and expect that China will be the savior of at least the Euro if not the USA?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

The number of articles in the Fin Review on the slow down of China seems to have jumped in the last few weeks.

I think looking backwards, we might say that BHP at 49.81 was the peak of the mining boom (Apr 2011).

I might need to have some sort of plan to make money shorting stocks. Going long looks so hard right now.

Maybe China is done.... cooked. I can't imagine a catastrophic fall, more like a steady prolonged decline.

 

[CanOz]

The number of articles in the Fin Review on the slow down of China seems to have jumped in the last few weeks.

I think looking backwards, we might say that BHP at 49.81 was the peak of the mining boom (Apr 2011).

I might need to have some sort of plan to make money shorting stocks. Going long looks so hard right now.

Maybe China is done.... cooked. I can't imagine a catastrophic fall, more like a steady prolonged decline.

You can short US stocks until you are blue in the face, plus there are many ETFs. Keep in mind though that usually the second leg down is a rougher ride that first, with more whip saw trading EOD. Shorting also in this climate, with so many big companies hoarding cash can be dangerous....if you know what I mean! Another reason to go with ETFs.

Don't worry though, the next big bubble is right around the corner.

CanOz

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I do know what you mean.

Next big bubble = energy technology?

 

[CanOz]

I do know what you mean.

Next big bubble = energy technology?

No idea, possibly...my point was that we live and have always lived in bubble economies.

Everyone gets all doomsday etc, but reality is this has happened hundreds of times over that last 200 years all over the globe. It will continue to happen because we are HUMAN.

This is our reality.

CanOz

 

[So_Cynical]

There was a china expert on TV the other week, an actual China man he was saying nothing much will happen until the Chinese communist party change of leadership...then its all guns blazing into the second half of 2012.

For me it seems to be a simple (lol) case of believe the Chinese phenomenon will continue or don't....go long/go short, yin/yang.

:dunno: im thinking i should just keep buying the lows and what will be will be.

 

[Gundini]

The bottom line - even by the official figures it's about to get even uglier

Not sure about this. What if the Chinese are messing with the figures as part of their game plan? Let's face it, the world economies appear to be in the toilet while China "appears" to be slowing? So China is going down the tubes because they have nobody to buy their products? I think the Chinese internal consumption is getting close to 2/3rds of GDP, while still growing at around 8% (a dream in western economies). What if China is waiting to see how Euro pans out before appearing to be the saviour using its trade surplus to get everyone out of the crapper? Surely, "The Emperor does have clothes", while it appears the Democratic economies are naked with the exception of their fig leaf (Printing presses)

The number of articles in the Fin Review on the slow down of China seems to have jumped in the last few weeks.

Contrarian indicator ?

Don't worry though, the next big bubble is right around the corner.

CanOz

There has been a notion floating around for a couple of years that the next bubble will be "Carbon Credits"

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/financ...51/here-comes-the-next-bubble-carbon-trading/

http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.com.au/2010/07/goldman-sachs-et-al-next-bubble-carbon.html

There was a china expert on TV the other week, an actual China man he was saying nothing much will happen until the Chinese communist party change of leadership...then its all guns blazing into the second half of 2012.

For me it seems to be a simple (lol) case of believe the Chinese phenomenon will continue or don't....go long/go short, yin/yang.

:dunno: im thinking i should just keep buying the lows and what will be will be.

Very clever post SC, yin/yang, I am thinking the same thing.

 

[prawn_86]

There has been a notion floating around for a couple of years that the next bubble will be "Carbon Credits"

Although the Euro crisis has put a bit of a dampener on this, i still beleive that carbon trading is 'the next big thing'. Now its just a matter of trying to find an investment within that field

 

[ROE]

I do know what you mean.

Next big bubble = energy technology?

We are on the start of second wave of commodity boom, the first wave is done and dusted buy companies that profit from the second wave..
BHP/RIO get all the benefits of the first wave.

There are plenty of real facts out there that we are on our way to second wave.
don't listen to the noise look at the facts and the figures...

Just like Financial, you buy banks when the market gone nut with housing, they are the beneficiary of the first wave..

second wave you buy debt collectors, cash converters and Thorn Group as people de-leverage and pay off debt

BHP trades cheap for a reason their good days are behind it...now if you can find second wave companies trade cheap now that is a bargain to have

 

[hangseng]

http://www.petermartin.com.au/2012/05/mining-boom-not-compared-to-whats-to.html

"All of the investment in the mining boom to date is but a shadow of what’s about to come according to the latest update by the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics."

"The analysis identifies “advanced projects” worth a jaw-dropping $260.8 billion, as well as a second category of less-advanced projects worth $242.4 billion.

The total - the investment Australia would get if all the projects came to fruition - exceeds half a trillion Australian dollars, easily a new investment milestone.

By way of comparison the Bureau totals all of the resource and energy investment to date in both of the mining booms since the turn of the century. It amounts to $138.4 billion. (That’s an inflation-adjusted figure, the dollar figure is lower.)"