End of financial year

[fallenangel22]

Hi,

Can anyone tell me what usually happens to the market after June 30. I know that it is pretty crazy at the moment because of global issues but in general does it drop because ppl are selling re: having a further 12 months to deal with their CGT on any profits they have made or does it rally because of end of year financial reports and divs. I realize that there will be elements of both but what is usually the case. Anyone have a theory?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Anyone have a theory?

Everyone will :

Can anyone tell me what usually happens to the market after June 30.

No. I wouldn't be putting any magical significance to a date, especially in this market. People will tell you that you can expect rises after tax loss selling but as always they won't be able to back up such "truisms" with data.

 

[MRC & Co]

Everyone will :

No. I wouldn't be putting any magical significance to a date, especially in this market. People will tell you that you can expect rises after tax loss selling but as always they won't be able to back up such "truisms" with data.

Yes, I have been hearing lately about this significant date on the forums, that prices will fall before July 1 due to tax loss selling (and I must admit, I have done a bit of it myself), but have searched for such data and am yet to find it............not sure if it even exists, despite the fact it sounds logical.......

 

[Wysiwyg]

Yes, I have been hearing lately about this significant date on the forums, that prices will fall before July 1 due to tax loss selling (and I must admit, I have done a bit of it myself), but have searched for such data and am yet to find it............not sure if it even exists, despite the fact it sounds logical.......

Hmmm, the fiscal year in America finishes on September 30, so no I wouldn`t think American market participants would be off-loading.

The U.S. government's fiscal year begins on October 1 of the previous calendar year and ends on September 30 of the year with which it is numbered. Prior to 1976, the fiscal year began on July 1 and ended on June 30.

 

[son of baglimit]

Hi,

Can anyone tell me what usually happens to the market after June 30. I know that it is pretty crazy at the moment because of global issues but in general does it drop because ppl are selling re: having a further 12 months to deal with their CGT on any profits they have made or does it rally because of end of year financial reports and divs. I realize that there will be elements of both but what is usually the case. Anyone have a theory?

in the last few years i have watched as funds reset their portfolios with selling in may/early june, followed by buying of those expected to perform in the following year, prior to june 30. this didnt appear to happen as much this year (apart from that banking surge during the week). i guess you can assume most are still anticipating further damage.

personally while some buying will probably occur, i expect nervousness to dominate for some time yet.

 

[tech/a]

People will tell you that you can expect rises after tax loss selling but as always they won't be able to back up such "truisms" with data.

Hope this helps.

Since 1980

The XAO Rose significantly over the next 6 mths 13 times
The XAO Fell significantly over the next 6 mths 6 times
The XAO Remained relatively flat 9 times

Most rises occured with a background of strength in the 6 mths before.
Background weakness tended to bring flatness and flatness tended to bring weakness.

So as for the next 6 mths based on this voodoo.
Id go for general flatness Mid 4,000s to High 5,000s Ranging.

However as for the 1st of JULY ( Which is this Tuesday)
The index has risen 21 times.
Been Flat 1 time
Fallen 6 times.

So as for Tuesday being a good day--I still stand by my statement.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Hope this helps.

Since 1980

The XAO Rose significantly over the next 6 mths 13 times
The XAO Fell significantly over the next 6 mths 6 times
The XAO Remained relatively flat 9 times

Most rises occured with a background of strength in the 6 mths before.
Background weakness tended to bring flatness and flatness tended to bring weakness.

So as for the next 6 mths based on this voodoo.
Id go for general flatness Mid 4,000s to High 5,000s Ranging.

However as for the 1st of JULY ( Which is this Tuesday)
The index has risen 21 times.
Been Flat 1 time
Fallen 6 times.

So as for Tuesday being a good day--I still stand by my statement.

Tech that is exactly what I was talking about. Most people sprout these market truths without ever testing them and they are not hard to test. My point was not that these condition don't exist but they mostly don't exist in such a sure fashion as they get thrown around. And as your data has suggested they have conditions that set them up.

One "observation" (I don't have intra data back more than 2 year) I have played is the last four June 30th(or last trading day of June) is a huge mark up in the 4:00 to 4:15 action, last year it was something like 100 points I Know because I got sweep 55 in an instant.

But this year I'm not sure about the play. I wouldn't be surprised to see a mark down!! Anyone who doesn't play the futures this 1 min move will be just an interesting game. For day traders it can be a V.nice way to finish the year or V.nasty way to finish!!

 

[prawn_86]

So as for Tuesday being a good day--I still stand by my statement.

For day traders the odds are there that it will be a good day, so its good to know.

But for longer term investors, even your LTTF system does one good day actually matter? If anything it may provide a good bull trap imo

 

[jet328]

I'll go against the consensus view here

How many countries have a July 1 fiscal year apart from Australia?
Just us
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year

Over the last few days we've actually done a lot better than other equities markets!

The other day, DOW down 3% & we were only off 1% on some big buying which I suspect is end of year window dressing from the big boys. Australian financials have done remarkably well considering the news overseas.

For these guys everything(including their pay) is measured on the end of FY result. Watch them window dressing tomorrow especially towards the close.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I am not seeing much selling, with just under 2 hrs to go before the EOFY.

I guess @Joe Blow may be correct in that 2021-2022 may be a bullish one.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

with salaries and bonus of the big boys managers linked to indexes, I doubt we ever see much downplay on the 30/06 by the big players, and we as individuals are peanuts, and getting more and more insignificant as super fund gain size