EMR - Emerald Resources

[UPKA]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

jtb and pommie

It's moving.

0.24c, up over 11%


Thanks goodness. I got so excited yesterday I sold some other shares and bought more EMR.

30c shouldn't be too far away.


jtb

when you wake up I hope you have a nice surprise.

we r moving with a fair bit of volume, certainly looks like EGO holders jumping boat and onto this one. moneymajix ur dedication to this thread finally being paid off good work mate!

 

[moneymajix]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

UPKA

Thanks.

So frustrating seeing EGO almost quadruple its share price of late and EMR's shareprice went backwards! Similar exposure to the Canning basin.

Nice to see some upward movement.


EGO might be considered expensive now. What do you think?

 

[UPKA]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

UPKA

Thanks.

So frustrating seeing EGO almost quadruple its share price of late and EMR's shareprice went backwards! Similar exposure to the Canning basin.

Nice to see some upward movement.


EGO might be considered expensive now. What do you think?

yes, i think EGO is hitting its peak at 2.5c, personally i wouldnt pay more than 2c for it, as it is still a very risky play. EGO just got dumped down to 2.2c as i typed this, its played by more n more day traders, which makes the SP more volatile and harder to move. where as EMR in the other hand has a different story

 

[chicken8]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

EMR has much less shares on offer compared to EGO

and also the low volume has "protected" EMR from day traders and kept out the volatility

i think when more and more people realise that EMR is better leverage, we will see the shareprice move in our prefered direction.

just a matter of waiting for the sleeping giant to wake

 

[moneymajix]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Chicken,

Well said.

Where did you get that dog from? Is it wearing a wig?




23.5c and options up over 13% to 12.5c.


QUESTION?

What is the options exercise price and date?

Cheers

 

[UPKA]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

I had a look at Emerald's website, found that Mr Robert Berven the Executive Director ran a few different companies before, and all got aquired by bigger companies. looks like Mr Berven is the type who likes to focus on exploration then offload the projects/interests to other firms. and in this instance, most likely to be aquired by ARC Energy.

 

[chicken8]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

I had a look at Emerald's website, found that Mr Robert Berven the Executive Director ran a few different companies before, and all got aquired by bigger companies. looks like Mr Berven is the type who likes to focus on exploration then offload the projects/interests to other firms. and in this instance, most likely to be aquired by ARC Energy.

very interesting.

if a takeover was to come in from ARC. what would you expect the takeover share price be?

at what premium over the current sp

 

[benwex]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

I have been watching EGO's stunning sp appreciation in the last few days, something in the Canning basin??

As a day trader at hard, the volume increase day on day are a give away that there is alot of short term trading...

But EMR is a different proposition as it has a larger sweet of projects and to be so resilient on a shocking day for the overall market shows there is a strong following out there.

The volume today is at 3m at 3am, and will easily be the highest volume traded in the last 12 months.

Stratham likes it and has a good track record for picking small cap oil and gas.

Lets hope the market settles down..

benwex

 

[UPKA]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

very interesting.

if a takeover was to come in from ARC. what would you expect the takeover share price be?

at what premium over the current sp

That really depends on the project value, bt we can normally expect 20-30% premium on top of the SP. But in short term, i expect EMR to match EGO's performance.

Also note that one of its wells in Texas is rated 80% success rate (see Intersuiss Report), and waiting a on a Nature Title Grant on EP 405-6 which is due west of Valentine! so alot of news r coming out this couple of mths.

 

[UPKA]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Sorry js one more thing, can u guys post a chart up in the Potential Breakout thread? this one is looking to break out the 24c resistance in volume, if we finish above 24c, we'll have a very good week ahead!:

 

[chicken8]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

reasonably strong finish to the day after having to go down to the 22c range around 3:40pm

the volume speaks for itself though. haven't seen this kind of volume in EMR for a long time. sign of things to come perhaps

how much of that volume is from EGO investors is unknown but the volume is good nonetheless

 

[jtb]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Sorry js one more thing, can u guys post a chart up in the Potential Breakout thread? this one is looking to break out the 24c resistance in volume, if we finish above 24c, we'll have a very good week ahead!:

I think Kenna's would disagree with you atm UPKA.
A little bit further to go yet but she's doing her best to do the right thing

 

[moneymajix]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

I borrowed this from another site...

What do you guys think?

26c is the pivot point once there, EMR has a stronger possible chance of going straight to 30c.

The current base pattern forming puts EMR in a strong place for higher movement, the key now is anticaption level of traders.

 

[Pommiegranite]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

I borrowed this from another site...

What do you guys think?

26c is the pivot point once there, EMR has a stronger possible chance of going straight to 30c.

The current base pattern forming puts EMR in a strong place for higher movement, the key now is anticaption level of traders.

The way I see it with oil explorers you either win big or you lose big.
No matter what drives the SP (institution backing, favourable press etc), until we get the drill results, none of it matters unless you are looking to buy or sell prior to results.

Oil seems to be more of a hit or miss affair than others resources. So its great to see EMR with lots of projects.

 

[jtb]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

I'm surprised there was no further comment regarding my earlier post on Alcoa's pre-purchase of gas from the Canning

"ARC Energy Limited (ASX:ARQ) is pleased to advise that it has entered into a major gas sales
agreement (GSA) with Alcoa Australia for the delivery of up to 500 petajoules of gas from future discoveries on ARC’s interests
in the onshore Canning Basin. The GSA includes a gas prepayment by Alcoa to ARC of A$40 million in September 2007 that
will be used to accelerate ARC’s regional Canning Basin exploration program".

One would imagine that once native title negotiations are complete that Arc will be very keen to punch some holes into the monster 'Eve Rose' prospect and I would assume EMR would be looking at a free carried >40% position if theres anything at all in Stokes/Valentine

I can only imagine the risked valuation.

With all the Canning related EGO chatter it's interesting to note that with EGO Presently @ 2.5c EMR should be >40c
EGO @ 5c =
So lets hope that she doubles and we ?

With options conversion in May we also have cash 7 months away without any dilution. Something I think is presently weighing on the other partners in PCL and FAR

Onwards and upwards

 

[moneymajix]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

jtb

Thanks for the post which I enjoyed reading.

Onwards and upwards, it seems so. At this stage my target - the 40s.

 

[Pommiegranite]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Using the out of date StockAnalysis matrix of the Valentine project, I have updated it with:

1. Fully Diliuted Current Market Caps, including recents placement, with the assumption that excercies of options is already factored into the SP.

2. New adjusted and non-risk adjusted leverages and cps values.

Please note that I have not changed the StockAnalysis' Targets, Oil/Gas values, or the 6.7% risk factor (Do not know where Strachan got that from).

Please feel free to tinker with the formulae/correct any errors and repost the spreadsheet.

Of course, it goes without saying that each company's other drill targets need to be looked at when viewing the downside on the company, should Valentines day be a none event.

Bottom line, if successful Valentine will be a company maker for the 4 smaller partners, with Emerald giving the biggest % gains from the current SP. Next week, I think investors will wake and realise that they've been batting for the wrong team.

Cheers

 

[Pommiegranite]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

There were some cell reference errors in the last spreadsheet. Here is the amended one. I hope there aren't any more errors.

Oh well...still shows EMR will have the best % returns if Valentine is a goer.

 

[jtb]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Yeah good work pommie.
You can understand where I'm coming from with the Eve Rose prospect next door

 

[Pommiegranite]

Re: EMR - Emerald Oil and Gas

Yeah good work pommie.
You can understand where I'm coming from with the Eve Rose prospect next door

Thanks..to be honest jtb, I'm new to this whole Canning Basin JV.

My main concern is that EMR isn't involved in further drills, as from all accounts it may take a few drills in CB to hit the bullseye.

I'm assuming as AQN has JVd with EMR etc on Valentine, EMR would get first options to JV at other places within the CB.

Do you have any theories as to what's been happening with EGO? I have not read one plausible theory. I don't trust the SP with EGO.