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Japan ran to 40k on the back of a tech boom and has not had its population increase in 25 years.
This is my point - Build some context into Elliot Wave theory.
slowly move upward a little further in the next few weeks before the next major leg down takes hold. .......Rimtas was mega bullish with the XAO just as it peaked and got caught out.
Rimtas this isn't the first time you have got defensive in this thread. Please don't take these discussions personally.
I'm not suggesting anything about having to be bullish.
When I talk about a 'realistic test' I'm implying that your 'forecasting' is inherently suggesting double digit unemployment, a plethora of companies going broke, months or even years of recession and a complete loss of investor confidence.
In my view XAO sub 2000 is an 'end of the world' scenario and my 'realistic test' to you is - do you really think that is the most likely outcome?
Perhaps you do, I don't know.
Thanks for the explanation of the "reality check" phrase. Please note that my mother tongue is not English so some phrases I hear first time and I am not sure what they means. I try to expand a reply to you post, it was interesting.
So in regards to severe economic conditions that you mentioned-I am not saying any of this would happen. I just saying that Wave c under Wave Principle could bring down XAO to its knees.
What economic conditions this might bring, I don't know. deeply pessimistic people at or near the bottom will make very different decisions comparing of what they are making now. For example if someone wants to buy a house, extreme optimistic environment is much better to make this decision-people feel certain about the future. Banks give mortgage, seller tons of cash, employer a more motivated employee. In pessimistic environment those plans are postponed(despite very attractive house prices), everything stalls. Those socionomic decisions later have consequences on the economic numbers, usually years after the bottom.
If you are interesting what I really think and if this is the most likely outcome-I must say that I don't rule out this possibility. I know that Australians had not had any tough economic conditions, even your parents didn't, and grandparents. This makes them to be unaware what is realy a crisis. And I feel that because of this few generations lasting positive environment, people got very complacent(that's why consumers in Australia have almost the biggest debt in world). I've read here on this forum that 2009 felt already like "end of days", which to me sounds like a joke.
I personaly have dealt with Russian crisis in 1998, 2002 and later were also very tough times in Europe, 2008 collapse brought to my country of origin 20% unemployment figures, busineses collapsed every day all around me. Everything that you referred in your post as "end of days" I went through on my own shoulders, and barely remember now.
If Australia will have a little bit worse economic conditions than those in 2009 and after, which possible Wave c would bring, I do not see this as "end of the world". It would be normal for me, usual cycle in life, just in different region of the world. Offcourse for the native Australians this would be a disaster. A disaster would be also for someone who lives in the million dollar mansion on the beach and will have to downgrade to 5 bed one street from the foreshore. Or for someone driving Maybach which would have to be changed to C class Mercedes.
In other words-relax. End of the world is not coming. Use human nature to your own advantage. Pessimistic environment would bring once in a life time opportunities as well, not only double digit unemployment. Wave c ends abruptly and bull market retraces everything back very fast, you will not even notice.
I usually do not tie economic conditions with my trading strategy. But some decisions in life are influenced by the probabilities which I see on the market, as one thing is certain-market leads, If it crashes, expect consequences. If it rises steeply, expect consequences as well.
People like you do not fully understand the main method
Stand alone EW is best when used alone
After more than one year in this forum, I see that there is little interest in keeping this thread going-there are no elioticians that fully understand and appreciate the method.
I have tried using Elliott Wave as a standalone method with mixed results. In choppy markets like this I don't think the theory works well at all...and I have spent years learning and trying to master it.
You must be joking gartley.
You are in the most fastest, most steepest Primary degree decline in the entire history of the market, that produces the clearest Ew structures ever, and you call it choppy market? Maybe that's why you had mixed results and spent years mastering it, without success. Wrong approach was used, you wasted your time. You should have better used this time to study third waves-that's were the full focus of eliotician should be. They all spend too much time trying to understand corrections, and when third comes, they refuse to recognize it, until it is over.
Now wacth and wonder, this one will be a big surprise.
I have nothing more to add. Except that Gartley patterns are like derivatives of the Wave Principle. People like you do not fully understand the main method, so they turn to side methods, like gartley
Cheers
Anyway who cares. What concerns me is how I can use these harmonic patterns to give me an edge in the market. That's the bottom line.
Unless you are consistently profitable trading EW then you have not mastered it.
Personally when I have applied EW in isolation I have achieved best results anticipating completions of 5 wave structures and 3 wave corrections especially contracting triangles.
For me the key is identifying the patterns first and then appending wave counts about those patterns. Although the best elliotticians swear by the count first. The trouble with the count is: how do you know you have the correct wavecount? They key is the pattern.
You must be joking gartley.
You are in the most fastest, most steepest Primary degree decline in the entire history of the market, that produces the clearest Ew structures ever, and you call it choppy market? Maybe that's why you had mixed results and spent years mastering it, without success.
Well said. I freely admit that EW is beyond my ken, so I really appreciate the exchange of ideas between Rimtas and Gartley, which seems for the most part civilly conducted. It helps me to understand the market action.Rimtas...I doubt anyone is "attacking" you or your views in a personal way...
...Gartley has a moderate cool headed approach probably based on experience, but we also need the enthusiasm you bring...
I sometimes mix up Gartly and Porper by a quick glance at there avatar. I think that has happened here also.
Well said qldfrog
rimtas et al
Allow me a post on a subject I never knew existed until I joined ASF. Further allow me to thank you for the EW and XAO discussion.
Like so many things human, there will always be opposing views which when conducted in a civil and level headed manner, leads to a fuller, deeper understanding of the subject matter.
Rimtas posts what is seen in the EW chart/s from rimtas's point of view/understanding. Nothing wrong with that. Of course rimtas's point of view isn't the be all and end all and we all should be mindful of that.
Now, I'm saddened that the commentary here was devolving into a personal affront but heartened to read that like myself, fellow members find this thread on EW is of some worth.
To the main contributors, please do not stop this discussion because of personal bias. It's good to have opposing views
+1
I don't know enough about this form of analysis to make a useful contribution to this thread but it is certainly interesting and worthwhile. I hope those who do know about it continue to post.
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