Electric cars?

[basilio]

I wonder... Yes everyone wants to buy new EV cars. I have no doubt they will be economical and state of the art.
However we have currently have millions of ICE cars on the road. I suspect there could be a decent market for converting some ICE cars to EV.

We know it is already happening with elite specialised vehicles. But I'm thinking if battery prices really do fall and some "standard"electric motors and associated hardware becomes well priced then a niche market of conversions could be encouraged.

It won't be common garden vehicles. However I suspect car owners who really love their older Mercedes or Cressida or Lexus could be interested in investing a decent amount to go electric.

 

[mullokintyre]

I wonder... Yes everyone wants to buy new EV cars.

Might be a bit optimistic there Bas.
from The Driven

One third of all Australians plan to buy an electric vehicle (EV) within the next 5 years, and nearly half of all Australian drivers are actively contemplating the switch.
These are the main findings from the Future Forecast Report 2024 published this week by Evie Networks, Australia’s largest fast EV charging network.

I have no doubt they will be economical and state of the art.

However we have currently have millions of ICE cars on the road. I suspect there could be a decent market for converting some ICE cars to EV.

There is certainly a market, but compared to the market for classic ICE engined cars, particularly big V8 Yank tanks, the market is fairly small.
There are a small number of factories doing conversions, but its hellishly expensive (ask me how I know!), and cminuscule ompared to the ones who will rebuild a 398 hemi.

We know it is already happening with elite specialised vehicles. But I'm thinking if battery prices really do fall and some "standard"electric motors and associated hardware becomes well priced then a niche market of conversions could be encouraged.

It won't be common garden vehicles. However I suspect car owners who really love their older Mercedes or Cressida or Lexus could be interested in investing a decent amount to go electric.

I have been a member of a local classic car club for quite a few years, having owned owned and restored a few yank tanks.
They are pretty much die hard petrol heads.
I have not told any of the members of my conversion of the sports car to an EV, I get enough grief from diehards who bag me for buying my wife the BYD.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

Might be a bit optimistic there Bas.
from The Driven

I have no doubt they will be economical and state of the art.

There is certainly a market, but compared to the market for classic ICE engined cars, particularly big V8 Yank tanks, the market is fairly small.
There are a small number of factories doing conversions, but its hellishly expensive (ask me how I know!), and cminuscule ompared to the ones who will rebuild a 398 hemi.


I have been a member of a local classic car club for quite a few years, having owned owned and restored a few yank tanks.
They are pretty much die hard petrol heads.
I have not told any of the members of my conversion of the sports car to an EV, I get enough grief from diehards who bag me for buying my wife the BYD.
Mick

A big issue that will affect the uptake of EV's is high density living, there has been a huge push over recent years to increase the density of suburbia.
With that there has been a lot of multi unit complexes, many of them will have a problem with the size of their consumer mains, this will limit the amount of chargers and also the amount of solar generation that can be exported to the distribution system.
It is all issues that can be overcome, but it is problems that generally haven't risen yet, so therefore people aren't aware of them.
Most people just think it is a case of buy an EV, chuck the panels on the roof and Bob's your uncle, unfortunately that wont be the case in many instances.
In the complex I live in, I have put 5.6kw of solar on the roof, it is export limited to 3kw, so if people are working on the added bonus of feed in tariff that is affected, myself I'm not worried about feed in tariff just charging the car.
But I'm the only one here with an EV, if everyone gets an EV and want to install a 7kw home charger, we will probably have to get the mains from the street and the switchboard upgraded.

 

[mullokintyre]

A big issue that will affect the uptake of EV's is high density living, there has been a huge push over recent years to increase the density of suburbia.
With that there has been a lot of multi unit complexes, many of them will have a problem with the size of their consumer mains, this will limit the amount of chargers and also the amount of solar generation that can be exported to the distribution system.
It is all issues that can be overcome, but it is problems that generally haven't risen yet, so therefore people aren't aware of them.
Most people just think it is a case of buy an EV, chuck the panels on the roof and Bob's your uncle, unfortunately that wont be the case in many instances.
In the complex I live in, I have put 5.6kw of solar on the roof, it is export limited to 3kw, so if people are working on the added bonus of feed in tariff that is affected, myself I'm not worried about feed in tariff just charging the car.
But I'm the only one here with an EV, if everyone gets an EV and want to install a 7kw home charger, we will probably have to get the mains from the street and the switchboard upgraded.

As an engineer, I tried to bring up the problems about scaling some time ago, but got howled down on here by other experts.
Scaling is a real thing, and anyone who has tried to take a prototype top production will know what i mean.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

Indeed. My bad. Nonetheless as Smurf pointed out there may be some practical commercial/engineering reasons for co-operation.

Nobodies bad, it is just things are never as straight forward as they appear and many assumptions are made, for example reading a report on a US based Tesla and assuming the Australian one has the same specifications, would be completely wrong.

The batteries the U.S Telsas use are completely different to the Australian ones, which are sourced from China, but even that would probably be wrong, because only certain Tesla models are sourced from China and even then earlier ones might not have come from China as early ones were U.K spec.

With new technologies and rapid changes in manufacturing, EV's can have Li ion, LiFe po, NiMH installed, depending on make, model and source of manufacture.

Who builds batteries for electric cars? EV battery manufacturers explained

There are a number of manufacturers around the world who supply the batteries used in Electric Vehicles (EVs). In 2020, the top five manufacturers controlled a huge 77.3 per cent of the market.

www.carsguide.com.au

 

[sptrawler]

As an engineer, I tried to bring up the problems about scaling some time ago, but got howled down on here by other experts.
Scaling is a real thing, and anyone who has tried to take a prototype top production will know what i mean.
Mick

Yes I have an electrical generation and distribution background, it gets frustrating when talking to "experts" over a beer, who have no electrical background but know everything about it.
I have found it is just easier to nod and agree, rather than discuss an issue with them, ignorance is bliss.

 

[JohnDe]

Yes I have an electrical generation and distribution background, it gets frustrating when talking to "experts" over a beer, who have no electrical background but know everything about it.
I have found it is just easier to nod and agree, rather than discuss an issue with them, ignorance is bliss.

I found that out many years ago, just smile and nod

 

[JohnDe]

Some happy Victorians refunded their money from their government.

For those that don't know, it was the Victorian governments EV road tax, charger per kilometer, regardless of which state the car was driven.

 

[Craton]

So then, how long before this "road tax" is increased and increased and increased?

Victoria EV road tax effective from 1 July 2021.

 

[JohnDe]

So then, how long before this "road tax" is increased and increased and increased?

Victoria EV road tax effective from 1 July 2021.

That article is out of date, this one is a little more current -

High Court dumps Victoria's "world's worst" EV road tax

High Court dumps Victoria EV road tax in major win for electric vehicle advocates.

thedriven.io

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
Reported this morning (02/02/24) in AFR electronic feed:

Sales of electric vehicles are poised to rise at an annual rate of 33 per cent to reach 74 million by 2030, according to a forecast by ARK Investment.

In its latest ‘Big Ideas’ report, Cathie Wood-led ARK said if EV adoption continues to gain traction, the traditional auto industry may be forced to restructure and consolidate.

“After increasing in response to supply chain disruptions, battery costs now are falling in line with Wright’s Law, leading to lower electric vehicle (EV) sticker prices.”

One key to ARK’s forecast is its optimism on EV charging: “The EV charging rate seems to be a good proxy for overall performance, including efficiency, range, and power. In the past five years, charging rates for 200 miles of range have improved nearly three-fold, from 40 minutes to 12, and could drop another three-fold to 4 minutes over the next five years.

“As EV charging reaches acceptable rates, manufacturers are likely to optimise for other features, including autonomous driving, safety, and entertainment.”

ARK also said as battery costs continue to decline, EV prices should fall, potentially driving exponential growth in unit sales.

If EVs continue to gain share, “as we believe they will”, ARK said then used cars and new EVs will make more economic sense than new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, “perhaps causing a death spiral for incumbent auto manufacturers. As EV and used car prices fall, consumers could delay purchases, waiting for even lower price points”.

 

[Value Collector]

Indeed. My bad. Nonetheless as Smurf pointed out there may be some practical commercial/engineering reasons for co-operation.

Tesla was actually using BYD batteries in some of its cars built in Europe.

I think these Companies are growing so fast they buy batteries from many different companies, Tesla can’t possibly make all their own batteries. And BUd has been growing fast so might be at that stage now too.

 

[Value Collector]

So then, how long before this "road tax" is increased and increased and increased?

Victoria EV road tax effective from 1 July 2021.

Keep up with the NEWS Buddy, That has been thrown out, and people that paid it are getting refunds.
https://amp.9news.com.au/article/a1f89092-aae8-4d7b-807c-9a8be3ff8cb4

 

[qldfrog]

Good morning
Reported this morning (02/02/24) in AFR electronic feed:

Sales of electric vehicles are poised to rise at an annual rate of 33 per cent to reach 74 million by 2030, according to a forecast by ARK Investment.

In its latest ‘Big Ideas’ report, Cathie Wood-led ARK said if EV adoption continues to gain traction, the traditional auto industry may be forced to restructure and consolidate.

“After increasing in response to supply chain disruptions, battery costs now are falling in line with Wright’s Law, leading to lower electric vehicle (EV) sticker prices.”

One key to ARK’s forecast is its optimism on EV charging: “The EV charging rate seems to be a good proxy for overall performance, including efficiency, range, and power. In the past five years, charging rates for 200 miles of range have improved nearly three-fold, from 40 minutes to 12, and could drop another three-fold to 4 minutes over the next five years.

“As EV charging reaches acceptable rates, manufacturers are likely to optimise for other features, including autonomous driving, safety, and entertainment.”

ARK also said as battery costs continue to decline, EV prices should fall, potentially driving exponential growth in unit sales.

If EVs continue to gain share, “as we believe they will”, ARK said then used cars and new EVs will make more economic sense than new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, “perhaps causing a death spiral for incumbent auto manufacturers. As EV and used car prices fall, consumers could delay purchases, waiting for even lower price points”.

There is some truth there but I still believe EV have an inherent limit with urban living density, grid capability and battery chemistry:
How many battery powered tools or items are still working after 15y...
My ute is now 15y old and if allowed to, can go another 15..
Not important for a runabout but for a dozer , tractor or real workhorse, it does.
Anyway, still room for expansion I am sure but I let you go first

 

[Value Collector]

There is some truth there but I still believe EV have an inherent limit with urban living density, grid capability and battery chemistry:
How many battery powered tools or items are still working after 15y...
My ute is now 15y old and if allowed to, can go another 15..
Not important for a runabout but for a dozer , tractor or real workhorse, it does.
Anyway, still room for expansion I am sure but I let you go first

A decent amount of petrol cars end their life at the wreckers before the hit 15 years old, my Mother in law just bought a new car to replace her 9 year old car because the Mechanic told her it needed a $6,000 repair and in wasn’t guaranteed to fix the problem.

My previous car was a 24 year old commodore, I loved it, but it took a lot of maintenance to keep it going, it seemed every 2 or 3 years the mechanic needed to do some expensive fix and gave me the same speech, eg “ we can’t guarantee some thing else won’t go wrong”

I kept the car on the road because I always thought spending $2000 or so to keep it going for another 2 years was cheaper than the depreciation on a new car.

But to think you are going to spend less keeping your petrol car in the road for 30 years than you would if you had to replace a battery is pretty misguided in my opinion.

So far I am 5 years into owning the Tesla and all I have had to do it replace a 12 volt batter, My sisters petrol car went through 3 batteries in 5 years, because it was the type that switched the engine on and off all the time and it smashed her batteries.

but I will keep you guys updated, but so far so good, I drive around at a cost of about 15cents per litre, and in 50,000 kilometres have bought 1 12 volt battery.

 

[Craton]

Keep up with the NEWS Buddy, That has been thrown out, and people that paid it are getting refunds.
https://amp.9news.com.au/article/a1f89092-aae8-4d7b-807c-9a8be3ff8cb4

Fair enough, I have erred.
This one failed the legal litmus test but surely the Victorian govt. must have known it would?

Still, the writing is on the wall because the declining revenue from the fuel excise into govt. coffers will sting, causing the bean counters to offer up all sorts of creative, revenue raising endeavours.

Once most of us are drinking from the EV cool aid fountain, higher rego costs, stamp duties and CTP or even direct charging for road use etc spring to mind and is all but inevitable.

 

[Value Collector]

Fair enough, I have erred.
This one failed the legal litmus test but surely the Victorian govt. must have known it would?

Still, the writing is on the wall because the declining revenue from the fuel excise into govt. coffers will sting, causing the bean counters to offer up all sorts of creative, revenue raising endeavours.

Once most of us are drinking from the EV cool aid fountain, higher rego costs, stamp duties and CTP or even direct charging for road use etc spring to mind and is all but inevitable.

Did you know the government actually spends more on Health care each year treating conditions related to Air Pollution than it collects in Fuel excise? So Ev’s might actually reduce government expenditure. The estimated costs of air pollution healthcare range from a conservative $8 Billion per year to $24 Billion, not to mention the human costs of 1000’s of deaths and cancer victims per year.

but, Yeah, of course there will eventually be a Tax on Ev’s to cover the cost of roads, it’s silly to bring it in to early though, especially because electricity does already have the GST on it, and the government makes money on its electricity infrastructure Investments Too.

 

[Craton]

Did you know the government actually spends more on Health care each year treating conditions related to Air Pollution than it collects in Fuel excise? So Ev’s might actually reduce government expenditure. The estimated costs of air pollution healthcare range from a conservative $8 Billion per year to $24 Billion, not to mention the human costs of 1000’s of deaths and cancer victims per year.

but, Yeah, of course there will eventually be a Tax on Ev’s to cover the cost of roads, it’s silly to bring it in to early though, especially because electricity does already have the GST on it, and the government makes money on its electricity infrastructure Investments Too.

View attachment 170063

Ah, statistics, love 'em or hate 'em but one does need to put stats into a meaningful context.

Air pollution is a many varied beast and not only what spews out of an ICE exhaust pipe.

A quick sqizz at EPA NSW (albeit 2013) and for the curious, one notes in the Main report:

3. Emission results
This section presents emission estimates for the 2013 calendar year for the following natural and human-made sources:

• Natural – biogenic and geogenic (e.g. bushfires, marine aerosol and vegetation)
• Commercial – non-EPA licensed22 premises (e.g. printers, quarries and service stations)
• Domestic-Commercial – domestic activities (e.g. residential lawn mowing, wood heaters and portable fuel containers) and non-premises based commercial activities (e.g. public open space lawn mowing)
• Industrial – EPA-licensed23 premises (e.g. coal mines, oil refineries and power stations)
• Off-Road Mobile – unregistered non-road vehicles and equipment (e.g. dump trucks, bulldozers, locomotives and marine vessels)
• On-Road Mobile – road registered vehicles (e.g. registered cars, trucks and buses).

The following two tables show air pollution for the Sydney GMR and Sydney itself.



Yes, agreed that it is early days however, I feel the rush to the battery technology used has been rushed through. Both the infrastucture required and the environment impacts have been glossed over.

It's disheartening with water such a precious and scarce resource that quelling an EV battery thermal runaway, it takes around 10x the amount use compared to an ICE vehicle blaze. Not to mention the threat that the lighter and heavier than air pollutants and subsquent explosion that these infernos pose.
Certainly a hellish nightmare for fire fighters.

On a different note and this may already have been mentioned. The charging cable has been known to vanish to fund criminals and the like.

 

[qldfrog]

Ah, statistics, love 'em or hate 'em but one does need to put stats into a meaningful context.

Air pollution is a many varied beast and not only what spews out of an ICE exhaust pipe.

A quick sqizz at EPA NSW (albeit 2013) and for the curious, one notes in the Main report:



The following two tables show air pollution for the Sydney GMR and Sydney itself.

View attachment 170103
View attachment 170100
Yes, agreed that it is early days however, I feel the rush to the battery technology used has been rushed through. Both the infrastucture required and the environment impacts have been glossed over.

It's disheartening with water such a precious and scarce resource that quelling an EV battery thermal runaway, it takes around 10x the amount use compared to an ICE vehicle blaze. Not to mention the threat that the lighter and heavier than air pollutants and subsquent explosion that these infernos pose.
Certainly a hellish nightmare for fire fighters.

On a different note and this may already have been mentioned. The charging cable has been known to vanish to fund criminals and the like.

Indeed, overall, one area seems to be fully missed by the EV pushers: the suitability of EVs to collapsing states/society.
Not to start raising political **** but EVs suitability in China, Singapore or Switzerland vs the same technology and cars in Paris suburbs, RSA townships or LA housing estate
Keep dreaming.. When kms of copper are stolen overnight along the inner rings road of Paris or thousands cars burnt in nye celebrations, what do you think happen to your free access unmanned recharging stations or street charging cables?
EVs increase complexity and reduce robustness of the system, be it technological , social or economic.
Consider yourself to be lucky for the time being in Australia, but do not live in Disneyland /Lalaland
I am convinced EVs will not replace ICE,s nor is the push done for that, no one will have 2 or 3 cars, farm, buggy, tractor in a household switch from ICE to EVs, you might share a fleet of EV ubers/taxis and a few wealthy people..by large, readers of the ASF , will own their own..but that is all you can have for the next 2 decades, and only in countries where society remains strong.
Anyway, hydrogen..which can be different EV is moving ahead..and no-one bothering about synfuels ..that is an area I would invest in on the share market

 

[Value Collector]

Ah, statistics, love 'em or hate 'em but one does need to put stats into a meaningful context.

Air pollution is a many varied beast and not only what spews out of an ICE exhaust pipe.

A quick sqizz at EPA NSW (albeit 2013) and for the curious, one notes in the Main report:



The following two tables show air pollution for the Sydney GMR and Sydney itself.

View attachment 170103
View attachment 170100
Yes, agreed that it is early days however, I feel the rush to the battery technology used has been rushed through. Both the infrastucture required and the environment impacts have been glossed over.

It's disheartening with water such a precious and scarce resource that quelling an EV battery thermal runaway, it takes around 10x the amount use compared to an ICE vehicle blaze. Not to mention the threat that the lighter and heavier than air pollutants and subsquent explosion that these infernos pose.
Certainly a hellish nightmare for fire fighters.

On a different note and this may already have been mentioned. The charging cable has been known to vanish to fund criminals and the like.

You would be silly if you didn’t think reducing the numbers of cars burning petrol and diesel in our cities wouldn’t improve air quality and health.

yes there is bush fires but they don’t happen every day like car exhaust, and coal power plants add to air pollution but they are away from the population and are already being phased out.

—————————

yes EV’s can catch fire, but they are less likely to catch fire than petrol cars. and it’s not like putting out petrol car fires is a big use of our water Resources.

And who knows maybe in 5 years battery technology changes and battery fires are It even a thing anymore.