You know that a product has become mainstream when a price war between manufacturers starts.
What's behind China's failed 'truce' in EV price war?
(Reuters) -The group representing China's auto manufacturers has retracted a pledge to avoid "abnormal pricing" that it had brokered between 16 automakers, including Tesla, breaking off a truce in a brutal price war over electric vehicles.
The China Association of Auto Manufacturers (CAAM) said in a statement on Saturday it recognised the agreement had violated China's antitrust law and would retract it.
WHAT'S THE BACKGROUND HERE?
Intense competitive pressure: Since January, when Tesla cut prices in China, about two dozen automakers have followed with price cuts of their own to stay competitive and stoke demand.
The list of automakers includes Chinese brands like Xpeng, Geely and its affiliate brands like Volvo, state-owned Chery Automobile, NIO and Great Wall Motor.
Global automakers followed. Ford cut prices on its Mustang Mach E EV. Toyota offered a discount on its bZ4X EV, and Nissan offered an incentive on its Ariya EV. General Motors, Honda, Stellantis, Ford and Nissan also marked down combustion vehicles, which are losing share to EVs and plug-in hybrids.
China's auto market, the world's largest, is on track to reach nearly 25 million vehicles in sales this year with overall growth of about 3%, and the share of EVs and plug-ins is rising fast. Consultancy AlixPartners forecasts this will be the first year made-in-China brands top 50% of their home market.
Those changes have created intensifying competition over price and features that is driving sales for EVs but also threatening industry-wide profitability, analysts say.
CAAM in March had urged automakers and local authorities to cool "price-cut hype" to ensure what it called the stable development of the industry.
Consumers had been waiting for bigger discounts before buying, analysts said, while some auto suppliers have been forced to accept payment cuts.
WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE 'TRUCE'?
On Thursday, at an event in Shanghai, CAAM brokered a series of commitments signed by executives from 16 automakers. The signatories included industry-leaders in battery vehicles Tesla and BYD, EV-focused Chinese brands NIO, Li Auto and Xpeng, as well as Geely. State-owned brands Chery Automobile, SAIC Motor, GAC Group, Dongfeng Motor and FAW Group also signed.
The signing was witnessed by an official from China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
The letter included a pledge to "not disturb fair competition in the market with abnormal pricing" to stabilise the market and promote consumption. That was widely seen as a truce in the price war.
It appeared in doubt just a day later when Tesla said it was offering a referral payout equal to about $500 on its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, including in China. Volkswagen's joint ventures with SAIC and FAW also announced price cuts in China on their ID-series EVs on Friday.
On Saturday, CAAM retracted the pricing pledge.
Liu Xu, a researcher at the National Strategy Institute of Tsinghua University, said enforcement of antitrust law in China's auto industry had been selective and that the language of the pricing pledge was so vague it would be hard to determine if it constituted a price monopoly.
While steady price cuts by companies should be allowed, subsidies from local authorities should be removed as they distort the pricing system, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, said on Monday.
WHAT HAPPENS NOW?
International automakers remain under intense pressure to restructure operations in China, and there are signs the pressure on consumer pricing is feeding back into worker furloughs and lower margins for suppliers.
Some expansion plans are in limbo. Tesla is still awaiting approval for a plan to boost output at its Shanghai plant, its biggest, most productive factory. Some workers making battery packs at Tesla were notified of layoffs at the Shanghai plant last week, although production plans remain unchanged.
Hyundai Motor, the world's No. 3 global automaker by sales, said last month it would close a plant in China and look to sell it with a factory it shut last year.
AlixPartners said while China's EV market will continue to grow rapidly, intensifying competition and excess capacity will also drive a shakeout. Only 25 to 30 out of the 167 companies registered to produce EVs or plug-in hybrids in China will survive by 2030, it forecast.
Meanwhile, Chinese brands are targeting growth outside China, including in Europe and Southeast Asia. In one example, Chinese automakers have invested $1.4 billion in Thailand since 2020, now dominating the Thai EV market after taking share from the Japanese brands that have long operated there.
(Reporting by Zhang Yan in Shanghai and Kevin Krolicki in Singapore; Editing by Tom Hogue)
Thanks to @ducati916 ..interesting historic view on electric cars in the early 1900sThree Maintenance Philosophies Fought for Control of the Auto Industry - Third Draft | Books in Progress
Books in Progress is what we call a “public drafting tool”: Drafts will be made available for comment from the public, allowing for direct collaboration between author and reader.books.worksinprogress.co
Finding another little quirk of the BYD, which i suspect may also exist in most EV's.
The car fogs up frequently, sometimes when driving.
in the old school ICE cars, I run the airconditioner at the same time as the heater demister.
The aircon dehumidifies the air which helps reduce the fogging as the demister heats the moisture into vapour.
In the BYD, you turn on the heat pump for warming, or the airconditoner for cooling.
I have not yet found a way to turn on both. Working on it.
Mick
It may well be that the saturation point is near, and it will need another jolt to push the EV's again.The number of unsold electric vehicles at dealers in the second quarter tripled compared to the past year, signaling a weakened demand for the segment, said a recent report by leading auto-dealer data company Cox Automotive.
In second quarter 2023, the average inventory for electric vehicles (EVs) topped more than 92,000 units on the ground at dealer lots, according to the 2023 Cox Automotive Mid-Year Review presentation. This is up 342 percent compared to second quarter 2022. During this period, the new “EV days’ supply,” which refers to the average number of days a warehouse holds inventory before selling it, rose 166 percent, to 92 days from 38.5 days. While the pace of EV sales is up, it is “not rising as fast as inventory builds,” said Jonathan Gregory, senior manager, Economic and Industry Insights.
Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are facing a “field of dreams moment,” he stated. “They have built inventory, and now they wait for buyers to come. This is one of the hottest topics we’ve had this year.”
Brands like Jaguar, Infiniti, and Lincoln had the highest days of supply, at over 100 days. The lowest numbers were seen among Toyota, Honda, Kia, and Lexus, with each brand having less than 30 days of supply.
Tesla continued to dominate the luxury EV segment with a market share of 25.5 percent, followed by Mercedes at 12.5 percent, BMW at 12.2 percent, and Lexus at 11 percent. Among EVs priced above $50,000, Ford held the biggest share at 22.1 percent, followed by Chevrolet at 12.1 percent.
Unlike other parts of the world, U.S. citizens remain on the sidelines when considering an EV purchase.
According to an April 2023 report by consumer intelligence company JD Power, more Americans are unwilling to buy EVs. In March, 21 percent of new vehicle shoppers said they were “very unlikely” to consider an EV, up from 17.8 percent in January.
During this period, the proportion of people who said they were “very likely” to buy an EV remained flat at around 26 percent.
“Lack of public charging infrastructure and price have been the top two concerns for the past 10 months, along with related issues involving range anxiety, time required to charge, and power outage and grid concerns,” the report said.
Some more information about the 'zombie car' issue caused by the EV subsidies in China. It's very much a real issue and the vehicles are EVs despite the nonsense in a video someone posted recently. There's plenty more information about it if you're inclined to look.
I am sure that at 600k plus , the pricetag should give you a generous trade in on the Armage.Last week I travelled to California wine country to sample Rolls-Royce Motor Cars’ new Spectre coupe, the ultraluxury brand’s first electric car, with top notes of leather, pencil box and rubber.
This enormous and exquisite four-seater has been haunting the company’s imagination for more than a century. In 1900, Charles Rolls observed that electric propulsion had many advantages over internal combustion – no smoke, smell, noise or engine vibration. Electric cars “should become very useful when fixed charging stations can be arranged”, the eventual co-founder said. In the breach, Rolls-Royce’s fuel-burners have aspired to the same lubricity, effortless power and solemn hush, as if they were electric.
Which brings us to the first of many paradoxes. Because Rolls-Royce has spent a century striving to deliver an electric-like experience – the gnostic-sounding waftability included – the real thing feels strangely familiar, like meeting an old friend with a new bionic heart.
In fact, in many corners of the car you can sense a sort of consummation, places where the technology finally delivers on a century of overblown rhetoric.
The Spectre is the luxury car maker's first electric car which comes with a £330,000 starting price tag. …
Consider, please, the problem of constraining ambient cabin noise. One of Rolls’ marketing slogans is “Silence is luxury”. Well, no engine means no engine noise. Moreover, as director of engineering Mihiar Ayoubi noted without batting an eye, a 703kg battery pack makes for an excellent sound-deadening “mass damper”. I bet it does.
The battery pack helped add 30 per cent more torsional rigidity to Rolls’ already stiff aluminium space frame. It is this architecture’s hidden, load-bearing maximums that allowed the designers to do cool and beautiful things. To wit: The Spectre is a four-seat pillarless coupe with rear-hinged “coach” doors, the widest doors in the company’s history. Eat your heart out, Oldsmobile 98.
You can tell it is a Rolls, even if you are blindfolded. The first cues are the retractable Spirit of Ecstasy hood ornament – her windblown gown re-profiled for improved aero – and the illuminated, temple-style grille, with variable-pitch shutters that can open and close. This is the widest such aperture in the company’s history. At night the grille glows like the ancient Parthenon hosting an all-you-can-eat orgy.
The Spectre is almost 6m long and more than 2m wide, on a 3.21m wheelbase, weighing 2900kg, rolling on 58cm wheels. The design brief called for a statement both “historic” and “super emotional”, said director of design Anders Warming. Up close and in person, those emotions start with awe, followed by a fleeting fear that it might somehow fall on you.
With the scale of the now retired Phantom Coupé and the lurid fastback shape of the bygone Wraith, the Spectre manages to be both scary-big and sensuous, in an Attack of the 50 Foot Woman sort of way. Among the more worldly design choices: The crisp fender lines bracketing the grille sweep up and aft, suggesting the vertical bows of ultramodern yacht design. Buyers may specify a single colour or a two-tone scheme, with the dorsal section (hood, roof, fastback) painted in a contrasting colour. I prefer the single-colour look. Do you think eggplant is too obvious?
Speaking of purple, you should see my shin. The leading edges of the doors have a bluntly pointed profile. When you open a door from the outside – electrically assisted, of course – the leading edge sweeps a huge arc that will take you right off your Louboutins.
While electrification suits the brand well, there was some tension, if you’ll pardon the pun. The “not-a-drop-of-Champagne” test, for example: This standard defines the supple and linear acceleration expected of all Rolls-Royces, such that owners should never spill a drop – and we’re not talking flutes here but the sloshy coupe glasses. If the car were allowed to deliver full torque from a standstill people would be getting those glasses stuck in their throats. Thanks to some gradualising algorithms in the motor-control programming, the Spectre’s initial acceleration (4.4 seconds to 100km/h) is notably nontraumatic.
The same is true of deceleration. To avoid any potential abruptness produced by regenerative braking, the system relies primarily on its hydraulic circuits in default mode. If drivers want more regen and more of a one-pedal response, the small B button on the gearshift wand engages a soft and posh sort of regenerative braking.
Built on a powertrain-agnostic architecture Rolls-Royce says was future-proofed for electrification, the Spectre motivates by way of front and rear-mounted motors producing up to 584hp and 644lb-ft of all-wheel drive. Sandwiched between the floor and the bottom of the car is the 102kWh battery pack, providing up to 420km of EPA-rated range.
Here’s the part where Tesla fanboys come out of the ether to say the Tesla Model S Plaid is almost twice the car (performance, range, efficiency, technology) at a quarter of the price. To them I say, all true. Now stop being a hayseed. Such buyers typically have garages full of cars, including Teslas, and manservants to keep them charged up. Rolls owners don’t have range anxiety. They have people for that. Besides, the average Rolls-Royce gets driven 5150km a year.
So the Spectre gets away with some stuff. The active air suspension with electromechanical anti-roll bars does a tremendous job of road isolation and chassis control, a job made harder with the big wheels. But a 48-volt active suspension, such as that in the Ferrari Purosangue, would have even more authority. You know how the Poms love authority.
You’d think that under that glorious hood would be an even more fabulous “frunk”, but no. That space is occupied by hardware and inscrutable black-cased enclosures. Here again, Tesla partisans might claim advantage. But rich people don’t pack up all their belongings for a road trip.
Wherever they are going, the clothes are waiting for them.
2024 ROLLS-ROYCE SPECTRE
● Base price: $633,000
● Price as tested: $803,000 (est)
● Powertrain: All-electric, with front- and rear-mounted, separately excited synchronous motors (190kW/360kW, f/r) 102kWh lithium battery pack; permanent all-wheel drive.
● Power/torque: 584hp/644lb-ft
● Max charging rate: 10-80 per cent in 34 minutes (195kW)
in post #8028 and #8073 I mentioned evidence of a distinct slowing of the parabolic trend of the purchase of EV's in both China and Europe.
Now it seems the US has started to see similar trends.
From Zero Hedge
It may well be that the saturation point is near, and it will need another jolt to push the EV's again.
Mick
in post #8028 and #8073 I mentioned evidence of a distinct slowing of the parabolic trend of the purchase of EV's in both China and Europe.
Now it seems the US has started to see similar trends.
From Zero Hedge
It may well be that the saturation point is near, and it will need another jolt to push the EV's again.
Mick
I am quoting what is happening, not what happened in January, nor what marketing experts think are going to happen.EV saturation -
View attachment 159561
- Demand for electric cars is booming, with sales expected to leap 35% this year after a record-breaking 2022
- VW electric car sales “fall to zero” as Tesla and China EV makers win price war
- Mercedes doubles sales of electric passenger cars in latest quarter
- Electric Vehicles - Worldwide
- US: All-Electric Car Sales Surged In January 2023 - 7% Market Share
- Electric Vehicles - United States
I am quoting what is happening, not what happened in January, nor what marketing experts think are going to happen.
Mercedes are not available to the majority of Americans,
The luxury market is immune to problems for the great unwashed, apart from the high price of the vehicle, finance costs have jumped thru the roof, to the point where some existing loans are in negative eqity territory (see Automoblog )
Another factor in the slow down of EV's in America is the fall in price for used cars ( see Yahoo finance ).
Mick
Of course, if you don't like the stats , you claim its from a poor quaility media source.So am i, but you are quoting from a poor-quality media site that don't even know that Tesla does not have Dealerships.
Waiting times for new electric cars may have slowed in recent months, but choosing which one you want can still be tricky.According to our research, waiting times currently stand at an average of 21 weeks; this is roughly the same as it was in April, but a staggering 39% (35 weeks) from the peak in October 2022.Whilst this is due in part to increased stock availability as global supply chains start to ease, we believe that a lack of cars at the more affordable end of the market is leading to consumers pressing pause on purchases.What caused such long waiting lists in the first place?
Good question. Last year, electric car owners were facing longer than normal waiting times for two main reasons: an order backlog that predates the Coronavirus pandemic, and the on-going conflict in Ukraine.
Estimated waiting times for new electric cars, as of 27th April 2023:Audi Q4 e-tron: 12-15 monthsAudi Q8 e-tron: 8-10 monthsAudi e-tron GT: 3 monthsBMW i4: 5 months BMW iX3: 6 monthsBMW iX: 6 months BMW iX1: 3 monthsCitroen e-C4: 1-4 monthsCitroen e-Berlingo: 4-5 monthsCupra Born: 3-4 monthsDS 3 Crossback E-Tense: 9-12 monthsFiat 500e: 4-5 monthsFord Mustang Mach-E: 2 weeks - 9 months Hyundai IONIQ 5: 8 monthsHyundai IONIQ 6: 1 monthsHyundai Kona: 5 monthsJaguar iPace: 3-6 monthsKia Niro EV: 3-4 monthsKia EV6: 6 monthsKia Soul: 3-4 monthsLexus UX300e: not taking new orders Mazda MX-30: 1 monthMercedes EQA: ImmediateMercedes EQC: ImmediateMercedes EQE: ImmediateMercedes EQS: ImmediateMG4: 1 monthsMG5: 1 monthMG ZS EV: 10 monthsMINI Electric: 3 monthsNissan Leaf: 6-9 MonthsNissan Ariya: 6-9 monthsPeugeot e208: 2 monthsPeugeot e2008: 4-5 monthsPolestar 2: 4 monthsPolestar 3: 10 monthsPorsche Taycan: 6 months Renault Zoe: 3-6 monthsRenault Megane E-Tech: 3-6 monthsSkoda Enyaq iV: 5-10 months Tesla Model S: no productionTesla Model X: no productionTesla Model 3: -1-2 monthsTesla Model Y: 1-2 monthsVauxhall Corsa-e: 4 monthsVauxhall Mokka-e: 5 monthsVolkswagen ID.3: 4 months Volkswagen ID.4: 4 months Volkswagen ID.5: 4 monthsVolkswagen ID Buzz: 3-6 months for single tone colour, 18 months for two toneVolvo XC40 Recharge: 5-10 months
I agree, the sales will not stop.John's chart does show a leveling off in 2022-2023, one thing for sure I don't think the push to E.V's will stop, not while the Government's are praying there is a chance of them being grid connected batteries.
Of course, if you don't like the stats , you claim its from a poor quaility media source.
And the fact that tesla does not have a dealership has nothing to do with the story.
Those that do, are finding lots of unsold stocks.
Your post quotes something from April.
We are now half way thru July.
The sales stats are falling in the US for the non Teslas now, not last April.
The wait times are immaterial, its how many cars are not being sold cos they are sitting in dealerships.
Volkswagon obviously has a problem., regardless of the wait times.
You don't close factories if sales are booming.
Mick
I don't know if you realised it or not, the original article I quoted was also referencing the same COX article you put up,Stats from your source? Ther is no breakdown between the numbers and the manufacturers or dealerships. They are comparing with last year when there was a shortage of everything, and EV supply from manufacturers (except Tesla & BYD) was almost nothing. Of course, there are going to a difference is the figures this year with manufacturing speeding up, more manufacturers offering supply and high interest rates. But to say "It may well be that the saturation point is near, and it will need another jolt to push the EV's again" is plain and simple wrong.
Consumers are not the problem; it is the Dealerships that are struggling. What you will see is the smart & prepared dealerships profiting, and the slow to change dealership struggling.
What does it say? Looks suspiciously sales are slowing.EV Consideration Grows Rapidly, Sales More Slowly.
According to Cox Automotive research, 51% of consumers are now considering either a new or used EV, up from 38% in 2021. Still, while interest in EVs rapidly increases, the gap between consideration and sales remains wide. EVs will account for less than 8% of total new-vehicle sales in 2023. On the used side, EV share of the total market remains approximately 1%. In many parts of the country, new EV inventory levels are increasing, as products arrive more quickly than consumers buy. In June, EV days of supply – a measure of inventory levels in the U.S. – was approaching 100 days, nearly twice the industry-wide average. As the Cox Automotive study shows, EV consideration is well ahead of sales.
Problem is its not an ICE factory closing, its an EV factory.As for manufacturers closing factories, well we've seen that before. This is the beginning of change that some have been predicting, some ICEV manufacturers are going to struggle, some will shrink, some will amalgamate, and some will close for good. Just like they did in the 1970's.
Another straw man, profit is nothing to do with it.A company with multiple factories that build one style of vehicle, combustion engine, doesn't have capacity to build EVs. They need to reorganise, either modify or build new factories. But first they need funds, which is hard to come by in these times, and while all the money is tied up with your ICEV production.
Look up the profit margin hat VW, Ford, GM, et al are getting for their EVs.
A moot point , but time will settle that one.The US is not even close to "saturation". Quality, good service, for customers, and profits for manufacturers is another story.
Brisbane richlister Trevor St Baker’s electric vehicle fast-charging company, Evie Networks, will establish a US headquarters in Phoenix amid growing sales of EVs across the country. The move comes as the Biden administration pledges $US30bn ($US43.6bn) for the electrification of the country’s transportation network over the next three or four years.
St Baker Energy Innovation Fund managing partner Chris Hay met key Arizona Commerce Authority representatives this week to outline the investment.
Another St Baker company, TCRT, a manufacturer of ballistic target systems, is also setting up its North American headquarters in Phoenix.
“Their arrival represents not only an investment in the local economy but also a significant step forward in the global movement towards sustainable energy practices,’’ Mr Hay said.
Evie, Australia’s fastest-growing electric vehicle charging network, will join flexible battery manufacturer Printed Energy, another St Baker Energy Innovation Fund company, in Phoenix.
Mr St Baker, the founder and executive director of the fund, said as pioneers in their respective fields, both TCRT and Evie would usher in a new era of sustainable energy solutions in Phoenix.
“The St Baker Energy Innovation Fund is proud to champion these companies and looks forward to their success on American soil,’’ Mr St Baker said.
Evie chief executive Chris Mills said the company expected to have its first US sites up and running within 18 months.
The North American market, while highly competitive, is seen as a major growth opportunity where the electric vehicle take-up is 5-6 per cent relatively – low compared with the 7 per cent to 8 per cent in Australia.
Energy billionaire Trevor St Baker recharges his Nissan Leaf
It plans to replicate its successful Australian model in the US by targeting sites where people work, live and play, because the share of electric vehicles in the country is expected to dramatically expand over the next few years.
“By expanding our operations in the United States, Evie Networks aims to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and improve the sustainability of the transportation sector in the US,’’ Mr Mills said.
TCRT will establish a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Tempe, east of Phoenix, to produce world-leading ballistic target systems, acoustic tiles, and ballistic panels.
“The market reception in the USA for TCRT products has been overwhelming,’’ Mr Hay, who is also the TCRT chief executive, said.
“TCRT is building a strong reputation for high quality, durable and cost-effective ballistics products; particularly its array of target systems.’’
Mr St Baker, who was ranked at 211 on The Australian’s Richest 250 list this year, established the St Baker Energy Innovation Fund in 2015 to invest in promising “new starts” including Nasdaq-listed EV charging manufacturer Tritium.
“There are many new starts with a fantastic vision or technology, but the difference between failure and success, time after time, is not the idea, but the business experience and support to help them grow,” Mr St Baker said.
Over the past decade, the St Baker Energy Innovation Fund has invested more than $300m in early-stage ventures, often joining the boards or contributing staff to businesses to support their growth.
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