Electric cars?

[Value Collector]

Group 1 and 2 fit into the top end of the market - they tend to be wealthy enough to buy what they want, when they want.
Nothwithstanding that, from performance Drive comes the November sales figures from VFACTS.
View attachment 151044
The humble Toyota corrolla outsold the tesla Model Y by about 3 to 1.
One has to assume from this that the Model 3 sales were less than 1805.
I am not sure where you got the figures for the comparison of the Mdel 3's versus Camrys. perhaps it was another month.
But from the same article quoting the VFACTS sales,
View attachment 151045
At least for November, there were nearly twice as many Camry's sold as Model 3's.
Mick

Model 3 normally outsells the model Y as shown in the august numbers, but covid lockdowns a few months ago probably affect recent numbers.

The corolla sales were also triple what they were a month before, so that might be an aberration, also the corolla is a much cheaper car, you would expect the cheaper cars to easily out sell the more expensive teslas every month, but they don’t seem to.

How much does Toyota spend on marketing? In business to some extent it’s easy to “buy” sales through advertising, but if a product sells without advertising that’s a good sign.

 

[JohnDe]

You can, as they do already, huge diesel generators so that the wxnkers can feel good driving EV to save the planet.
Does anyone remember the scam of the fluo bulbs, the government incentives etc etc
Results:
So called longuer life of these bulbs was never achieved, we switched on and staid in darkness for 3 minutes, and our dumps and air got an extra does of mercury? Or is it cyanide? Forgot.but highly dangerous when broken..with no recycling in place.
I still intend to get an ev as soon as we move in the final house, but no illusion:
The EVs move is the fluo bulb of 2022, coupled with social engineering and removal of one of the basic human freedom: freedom of movement

I feel better about the savings I have accumulated, and directed towards my investment portfolio ?

Below is my EVs power usage & equivalent petrol savings for 2022, this includes interstate travel & a lot of back & forward to my coastal investment.

 

[JohnDe]

Interesting ?

View attachment 151035

A couple of current listings on Carsales -





And if you order new from Tesla -

Design Your Model 3 | Tesla

Design and order your Tesla Model 3, the car of the future. Learn about lease, loan and cash payment options, warranties, electric vehicle incentives, gasoline savings and more.

www.tesla.com

 

[JohnDe]

BYD ATTO 3 USING WAZE NAV ON APPLE CARPLAY FIRST DRIVE IN AUSTRALIA​

2023 BYD ATTO 3 APPLE CARPLAY WALKTHROUGH AND FIRST LOOK IN AUSTRALIA​

 

[JohnDe]

 

[rcw1]

JohnDe
1 outa 2 ordered Tesla 3's have arrived in Brisbavus. Being sent north soon.
They will be company cars driven by son's, rcw1 gets to keep his scooter ha ha ha ha

Have a good one JohnDe.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[sptrawler]

State of play with E.V battery materials.

Three cathode chemistries to dominate $430bln-Li-ion market – report

According to IDTechEx, NMC, NCA, and LFP will continue to be the dominant cathode materials at least until 2033.

www.mining.com

 

[sptrawler]

A pretty good advert for the safety of a Tesla IMO

Man accused of intentionally driving off a cliff with his wife and 2 children faces attempted murder charges | CNN

All four occupants were trapped inside the smashed car, officials said.

edition.cnn.com

 

[qldfrog]

A pretty good advert for the safety of a Tesla IMO

Man accused of intentionally driving off a cliff with his wife and 2 children faces attempted murder charges | CNN

All four occupants were trapped inside the smashed car, officials said.

edition.cnn.com

Not so good for the lane keeping system, the emergency brake,etc.
And as a jury,it was a Tesla,who can be sure wo doubt that the car had not be hacked and remotely send off the road....
100% sure?.... interesting i think...

 

[Value Collector]

Not so good for the lane keeping system, the emergency brake,etc.
And as a jury,it was a Tesla,who can be sure wo doubt that the car had not be hacked and remotely send off the road....
100% sure?.... interesting i think...

How is this not good for the lane keeping system or emergency brake???

Just to be clear, the emergency does not work if you have your foot on the acceleration.

And the lane keeping doesn’t stop you from purposely steering off the road.

If you are going to dangerously leave the road, the lane departure avoidance beeps and provides slight steering resistance, but doesn’t stop you over powering it.

Same with the emergency brake, if you press on the acceleration it over rides it.

But @sptrawler is right this is a great example of Tesla structural safety

 

[mullokintyre]

A small problem that may scale up to a big problem.
From The Evil murdoch press

Way back in post #3781 i tried to introduce the concept of scalability and the issues surrounding it, but it kinda fell on deaf ears.
Scalability is a real problem, and the instances outlined above highlight just how the unintended consequences often rear their ugly heads when one tries to scale up a small form engineering solution.
The issue will not be going away anytime soon.
Mick

Peter Zeihan has just release a video on why the scalability issue is a big one for EV's.
He also brings a few other issues as well in terms of "green".
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

As is the way today, it isn't what people say, it is what they don't say, because they will be trashed. ?
Meanwhile the ranters run amok.

Toyota boss says other industry executives secretly doubt the switch to electric power

Toyota chief believes other motor industry executive share his doubts about a fully battery electric future.

www.drive.com.au

The head of the world's largest automaker, Toyota, has again questioned plans for a complete switch to solely electric cars – and believes he is not alone.
Akio Toyoda, president and CEO of the Toyota Motor Corporation, has continued his call for more diversity in future automotive fuels as he promotes a potential role for hydrogen and biofuels.
“Frankly, (electric vehicles) are not the only way to achieve the world's carbon neutrality goals,” said Mr Toyoda.
He said he believes consumers and carmakers also have doubts a total changeover, but are reluctant to speak out.
“That silent majority is wondering whether EVs are really OK to have as a single option,” he said, according to The Wall Street Journal.
“But they think it's the trend so they can't speak out loudly.”
“Personally, I would rather pursue every option, not just one option, such as emission-free synthetic fuels and hydrogen. I still believe hydrogen is as promising a technology for our future as BEV,” said Mr Toyoda.
“Let me correctly explain Toyota’s position. I would like you to think of Toyota as a department store offering every available powertrain.
“I am often criticised in the press because I won't declare that the automotive industry should commit 100 per cent to (solely electric vehicles).
“Because, just like the fully autonomous cars that we were all supposed to be driving by now, I think (electric vehicles) are just going to take longer to become mainstream than the media would like us to believe.”

 

[mullokintyre]

According to Nikkei Asia , India has overtaken Japan as the Third biggest market for new car sales after China and the US, as no 1 and 2 respectively.

TOKYO/NEW DELHI -- India eclipsed Japan in auto sales last year, according to the latest industry data, making it the third-largest auto market for the first time.

India's sales of new vehicles totaled at least 4.25 million units, based on preliminary results, topping the 4.2 million sold in Japan.

New vehicles delivered in India totaled 4.13 million between January and November 2022, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Adding December's sales volume reported Sunday by Maruti Suzuki, India's largest carmaker, brings the total to roughly 4.25 million units.

India's sales volume is expected to rise further with the inclusion of pending fourth-quarter sales figures for commercial vehicles, along with year-end results yet to be released by Tata Motors and other automakers.

In 2021, China continued to lead the global auto market, with 26.27 million vehicles sold. The U.S. remained second at 15.4 million vehicles, followed by Japan at 4.44 million units.

Unlike most other markets, EV's have not made big inroads into the Indian market.

Vehicles powered by gasoline, including hybrid vehicles, accounted for most of the new autos sold in India last year. Electric vehicles hardly have a presence. Autos for the Indian market are seen having fewer semiconductors than those sold in advanced economies.

Only 8.5% of Indian households owned a passenger vehicle in 2021, according to British research firm Euromonitor, meaning there is plenty of room for sales growth. The government has started offering subsidies for EVs amid a trade deficit resulting from petroleum imports.

One of the factors that may limit the uptake of EV's is that fossil fuels produce about 75% of electricity, the majority of which is used in industry according to Indian Energy .
So even if the uptake of EV's were increase dramtically, it will be unlikey to reduce CO2 emissions much.
Added to that is this from Statista

The western region in India had the highest amount of electricity transmission losses in financial year 2020, at about 9.1 thousand gigawatt hours. Nearly 20 percent of India's electricity generation is lost during its transmission.

The transmission of power needs to be modernised to cope with increasing demand.
There is varying degrees of the measure of how many households have access to the electricity grid.
According to Times of India, 17% of Rural households have no9 connection, although this figure maybe higher, as the government counts a village or region as being 100% connected if there is a supply to the village , with at leat one household connected to the grid.
given this, it is probably no great surprise that the uptake of EV's is small, as the ability to charge them quickly is at best problematic.
Mick

 

[qldfrog]

According to Nikkei Asia , India has overtaken Japan as the Third biggest market for new car sales after China and the US, as no 1 and 2 respectively.

Unlike most other markets, EV's have not made big inroads into the Indian market.

One of the factors that may limit the uptake of EV's is that fossil fuels produce about 75% of electricity, the majority of which is used in industry according to Indian Energy .
So even if the uptake of EV's were increase dramtically, it will be unlikey to reduce CO2 emissions much.
Added to that is this from Statista

The transmission of power needs to be modernised to cope with increasing demand.
There is varying degrees of the measure of how many households have access to the electricity grid.
According to Times of India, 17% of Rural households have no9 connection, although this figure maybe higher, as the government counts a village or region as being 100% connected if there is a supply to the village , with at leat one household connected to the grid.
given this, it is probably no great surprise that the uptake of EV's is small, as the ability to charge them quickly is at best problematic.
Mick

EV debate can be summarised as
Reality is a b•tch?

 

[sptrawler]

The proposed RAM E.V sounds interesting.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/motoring/motoring-news/ram-unveils-ute-of-the-future/news-story/f0c506d73caa57d7763445a9d06d29c9

A more spacious cabin positioned further forward on the car’s body delivers seven-seat versatility, making it more attractive to families.
Tradies will appreciate “pass-through” storage for long objects that can be loaded into the tray, before running through the interior of the car, into the under-bonnet “frunk” where an engine would normally be found.

Ram says the car can accommodate 18-foot-long items with the tailgate closed.
Both ends of the concept car’s tray fold down, allowing easy access between the cabin and cargo bed.

Ram says the electric ute will go into production in 2024, but hasn’t revealed technical details surrounding its powertrain.

Next-gen tech in Ram’s electric ute includes headlights capable of project images onto walls, doors that unlock with facial recognition and a semi-autonomous self-driving systems that work when the driver is outside the car.

For example, someone working on a roadside construction site could have the car follow them at walking pace while they fetch traffic cones out of the tray.

 

[Value Collector]

As is the way today, it isn't what people say, it is what they don't say, because they will be trashed. ?
Meanwhile the ranters run amok.

Toyota boss says other industry executives secretly doubt the switch to electric power

Toyota chief believes other motor industry executive share his doubts about a fully battery electric future.

www.drive.com.au

The head of the world's largest automaker, Toyota, has again questioned plans for a complete switch to solely electric cars – and believes he is not alone.
Akio Toyoda, president and CEO of the Toyota Motor Corporation, has continued his call for more diversity in future automotive fuels as he promotes a potential role for hydrogen and biofuels.
“Frankly, (electric vehicles) are not the only way to achieve the world's carbon neutrality goals,” said Mr Toyoda.
He said he believes consumers and carmakers also have doubts a total changeover, but are reluctant to speak out.
“That silent majority is wondering whether EVs are really OK to have as a single option,” he said, according to The Wall Street Journal.
“But they think it's the trend so they can't speak out loudly.”
“Personally, I would rather pursue every option, not just one option, such as emission-free synthetic fuels and hydrogen. I still believe hydrogen is as promising a technology for our future as BEV,” said Mr Toyoda.
“Let me correctly explain Toyota’s position. I would like you to think of Toyota as a department store offering every available powertrain.
“I am often criticised in the press because I won't declare that the automotive industry should commit 100 per cent to (solely electric vehicles).
“Because, just like the fully autonomous cars that we were all supposed to be driving by now, I think (electric vehicles) are just going to take longer to become mainstream than the media would like us to believe.”

I think there will be a role for hydrogen in some way, but as for passenger cars, I don’t think many people who have had EV’s for a while will want to begin attending petrol stations again.

 

[sptrawler]

I think there will be a role for hydrogen in some way, but as for passenger cars, I don’t think many people who have had EV’s for a while will want to begin attending petrol stations again.

Yes I agree, you would have to have a particular need, to want anything other than a BEV, if the BEV fulfills your driving needs.
I've found it suits us perfectly, but we are retired and aren't fully reliant on the car every day.
I would hesitate to recommend it to someone who needs to do a lot of kilometres every day, I haven't been in that situation, so I really don't know how it would fare.

 

[JohnDe]

I think there will be a role for hydrogen in some way, but as for passenger cars, I don’t think many people who have had EV’s for a while will want to begin attending petrol stations again.

We have a long way to go before we see mass production on hydrogen vehicles. The biggest and most expensive pitfall to a hydrogen future is tank storage & safety.

Hydrogen Leakage: A Potential Risk for the Hydrogen Economy

Hydrogen has been identified as a potential safety issue based on the fact that it is the smallest molecule that exists and can easily pass through materials.

Hydrogen Leakage: Knowns and Unknowns
Hydrogen leakage risks have been identified along the entire value chain of hydrogen. In assessing these risks, this commentary divides the hydrogen value chain into three categories: production, delivery, and end use

The leakage rate stands between 2.9 percent (low-risk case) and 5.6 percent (high-risk case), and the total leakage volume stands between 15.3 Mt and 29.6 Mt. This can represent a non-negligible contribution to global warming and up to a $59 billion/yr value loss of hydrogen (assuming $2/kg-H2).

Detection, Monitoring, and Prevention Technologies
Hydrogen sensors, leak detection, and other safety infrastructure and techniques are still not at the scale of commercial production required to cover desired application scenarios. As the market has begun to adapt to meet new demands for hydrogen use, however, several technologies have been developed or are being refined to meet the challenge of fast, reliable hydrogen leakage detection across a range of production and fueling environments.

The highly flammable nature of hydrogen-air mixtures at concentrations above 4 percent and the conditions under which hydrogen is stored and transported require specific and concrete goals in the realm of hydrogen sensors. The DOE has set targets for hydrogen sensors using the parameters of accuracy, response recovery time, detection limit, ambient humidity, temperature, and pressure. After more than a decade of research, these targets have not yet been met (Granath 2015), but technology is improving, and several types of sensors are now available for production facilities, pipelines, and indoor and outdoor use.

Findings and Recommendations
Finding 1: There is almost no data on and regulation of present hydrogen leakage rates and risks beyond required safety management. Hydrogen leakage data is not available for many industrial production and application processes. Most sources are not cross-referenced for those processes where leakage data is available but are rather simulation based and sometimes extrapolated from similar studies. Moreover, the data does not include device-level analysis and therefore cannot support bottom-up analysis, which is the typical way of assessing economy-wide, aggregated leakage rates. The current literature does not provide a clear understanding of the actual status of hydrogen leakage today.

Finding 2: Few technologies are available for hydrogen leakage detection and monitoring. Few commercial products have been identified to support hydrogen leakage detection, a step that is essential to fully understanding the current and future situation. This market shortage is partially due to lack of regulation: many countries have not developed dedicated legislation and regulatory frameworks for hydrogen production, transportation, storage, and end use, including in regard to hydrogen leakage monitoring. The need for more commercial products may be exacerbated by the expansion of the hydrogen economy, especially distributed sources such as fueling stations, fuel-cell vehicles, and end-use appliances.

Finding 3: Hydrogen leakage seems to be concentrated in a few key processes. By 2050, green hydrogen production, transportation, and storage (both pipeline and trucks); road transport vehicles; electricity generation; and chemical synthetic fuel production are expected to become the major sources of leakage. Together, they would contribute 77 percent of economy-wide hydrogen leakage. The main reasons for this large contribution are their broad scale (chemical and synthetic fuels production), high leakage risks (road transport vehicles, truck transportation, and storage), or both (green hydrogen production and pipeline transportation and storage).

Finding 4: Initial analysis suggests an increased risk of higher economy-wide hydrogen leakage rates in the future chiefly from new production and delivery expansion. Many key leakage processes for 2050 scenarios do not exist in the current hydrogen system. With the expansion of the hydrogen economy, the scaling up of production/use and deployment of new processes will increase the chance of leakage and therefore risk levels. The 2050 high-risk scenario will lead to a 5.6 percent economy-wide leakage rate. In short, hydrogen leakage is expected to be a challenge for the hydrogen economy.

Recommendation 1: Develop research and data-gathering programs to better understand the existing hydrogen systems. A lack of understanding of the current hydrogen system and the significance of leakage prevents the development of realistic solutions and appropriate regulations. The current hydrogen system is mostly based on industrial production and applications, and the research and data gathering on leakage that is required will likely be impossible without support from industrial partners. In order to understand and rigorously estimate the scale of hydrogen leakage, new regulations and policies should emphasize hydrogen leakage detection.

Recommendation 2: Require monitoring programs for new hydrogen pilots and scale up programs to assess the leakage risk of new processes. In the future, the real leakage risk will likely be new processes such as green hydrogen production, fuel-cell vehicles, and dedicated hydrogen deliveries. If the goal is to address this potential leakage, monitoring programs will need to be implemented for all new processes at the production, delivery, and end-use stages. Active control of these processes through regulations and policies before they scale up can help reduce risks and potential economic losses associated with the future hydrogen economy.

Recommendation 3: Devote special attention to certain key processes that demonstrate potential to be scaled up or to address high leakage risks. Based on the available data at this stage, it is estimated that a handful of processes identified in Finding 3 would contribute to an estimated 77 percent of total hydrogen leakage in the 2050 scenarios. Significant resources have been dedicated to scaling up the production and use of hydrogen but not to controlling leakages in the process. To the extent that leakage estimates are confirmed and leakage is concentrated around key processes, research on leakage prevention and regulations for a few key processes will have greater impact than that for others if the goal is to effectively reduce overall hydrogen leakage.

Recommendation 4: Expand support for research and development programs on hydrogen leakage detection, prevention, and mitigation. There is insufficient research on how to prevent and mitigate hydrogen leakage. Moreover, the commercial products that currently exist for this purpose do not meet the requirements of device level, high sensitivity, and distributed small hydrogen leakage source detections. If the goal is to develop a thriving hydrogen economy without hydrogen leakage, research and development funding should be prioritized for hydrogen leakage detection, prevention, and mitigation, with special attention dedicated to bringing technologies currently at the research level to the commercial level.

Hydrogen Storage Tanks: The Types, The Pitfalls, and the Solutions.

Hydrogen Storage vessels are especially susceptible to embrittlement

 

[JohnDe]

Yes I agree, you would have to have a particular need, to want anything other than a BEV, if the BEV fulfills your driving needs.
I've found it suits us perfectly, but we are retired and aren't fully reliant on the car every day.
I would hesitate to recommend it to someone who needs to do a lot of kilometres every day, I haven't been in that situation, so I really don't know how it would fare.

Depends what you definition of "a lot of kilometres every day" is.

My wife uses our EV to travel back & forth from work everyday, plus run errands. We have a property on the coast about 175km away, which we drive to and the following day drive back for work and then back to the property on the coast. this has been going on since November 2022, so far no issues.

The biggest fear is fear itself.

 

[Sdajii]

Depends what you definition of "a lot of kilometres every day" is.

My wife uses our EV to travel back & forth from work everyday, plus run errands. We have a property on the coast about 175km away, which we drive to and the following day drive back for work and then back to the property on the coast. this has been going on since November 2022, so far no issues.

The biggest fear is fear itself.

That's not anything near any ball park I'd call 'a lot of kilometres every day'.

I often do over 1,000km in a day, I sometimes do 1,500km or more in a day. About a year ago I did just over 6,000km in just over 72 hours.

You don't have to get anywhere near what I do before an EV is completely out of the question. Compared to what I do, people who only make little trips around the corner make you look like you're only making little trips around the corner, and for those people, an EV is not a good option. For people who don't do more than about 300km in a day and can charge up in between drives it's lovely if they don't mind throwing a lot of money at the purchase price.

You only need your vehicle to be incapable of doing what you need it to do once or twice per year for it to be a big issue. For the majority of people (yourself being a good example by the sound of it) big or even medium drives aren't ever a thing, so an EV is great, but for plenty of people they just won't do what is required.

I'm currently in the Great Sandy Desert, I simply can not imagine how EVs could be practical for anyone in this region, and it would scarcely be possible at all to travel through where I am let alone do it practically - a quick check on maps says it's 610km between the nearest place you could charge a car to the west and east of here (unless you wanted to pay someone an insane amount to let them use a generator - I'm currently using electricity from a diesel generator for my laptop). I did see a couple of Teslas in Karratha last month which I thought was interesting, but I'm sure they were owned by very wealthy people (plenty of those out in these mining areas) who own multiple cars and the Tesla is a bit of a toy rather than anything practical. For most people who live in larger cities, sure, they're lovely.