Electric cars?

[sptrawler]

I was under the impression that it isn’t coal plants having to switch on and off that’s the problem, because they aren’t really doing that, it’s the suppression of the actual whole sale price, by solar and wind, at least that’s how AGL was explaining it.

Well I will let @Smurf1976 explain it.
But I will say if it is cheaper and more efficient to run the renewables, why have the coal generators at all, I'm sure they don't want to operate them.

 

[rederob]

What crap are you talking about, you arrogance is only eclipsed by your ignorance.

Really?
Perhaps show an example rather than spruik off-topic nonsense.

 

[Value Collector]

Well I will let @Smurf1976 explain it, because you will probably argue with me.

No arguments from me, I am interested to learn about how it works, maybe the explanations I have read so far have been off by we simplified.

But the way I though it worked was that the power from the base load generators like coal power stations was mostly pre sold though daily auctions, and the coal plants will continue to generate their presold power regardless, and it’s the Peaker plants like the gas turbines and some hydro that switch on and off to meet the exact unexpected fluctuations above the base load.

How ever, the coal plants rely on selling their electricity at higher price levels for a certain number of hours per day, and this peak earning time is getting squeezed as solar and wind producers have edged in, eg at certain times mid day is almost unprofitable based on the whole sale price, where as 10 years ago that was a decent earning time for coal plants.

 

[sptrawler]

So if that is the case why bring forward the closing of one of the biggest base load stations by 7 years?
I'll defer to your logic and obvious knowledge.
By the way peak earning times is morning and evening peaks, not mid day always has been.

 

[Value Collector]

So if that is the case why bring forward the closing of one of the biggest base load stations by 7 years?
I'll defer to your logic and obvious knowledge.

Because it’s becoming unprofitable to keep running it, because there is not enough hours each week when the wholesale price of power is high enough for it to make a decent return, shutting it down takes enough supply out of the market to raise the price for a while, until the supply of renewables keeps expanding again.

Basically in those auctions that determine the prices they will be able to sell their power for, there is enough capacity available from all the other coal plants + wind, solar, hydro etc to push the whole sale price down for most of the day/week.

The big wind and solar generators can look at the weather predictions and have a decent idea of the minimum level of power they will produce and put in offers to supply firm supply against the coal plants, and if the weather report is wrong it’s not a big deal for them because they just have a hedging/insurance contract with a peaker natural gas plant to provide back up for the odd occasion their weather prediction is way off, also some of them now have batteries too.

Eg, a coal plant can have trouble competing against a group that owns three wind farms, two solar plants a battery and had decent meteorologist and hedger/trader, sure some days the coal plants will make decent money, but for enough hours a day their prices will be squeezed but the renewables who’s running costs are rock bottom.

 

[qldfrog]

What crap are you talking about, you arrogance is only eclipsed by your ignorance.

Have a great evening and goodnight.

Funny thing is I am missing who the ignorant is due to him/her/it being on my "ignore" list: the game for me is to guess who it is: i reached a short list of 2 or 3 so far?
Do not worry 3 hound, facts or sciences will never bother them...
Learn the forum "ignore" function

 

[mullokintyre]

As mentioned about 3000 post’s ago, ICE development will stop as R&D dollars are reallocated to EV development. Any hybrid EVs that are produced will use existing engine technology, and slowly fade into the sunset.

ICE development will stop when the developers can't make a buck out of it.
Governments think they drive policy, but in the end it is the ones who make the dollars that drive it.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

ICE development will stop when the developers can't make a buck out of it.
Governments think they drive policy, but in the end it is the ones who make the dollars that drive it.
Mick

Hyundai Motor Group is accelerating its EV plans, and has closed its engine development department at the end of 2021.

Park Chung-kook, recently appointed as the automaker’s research and development chief, sent an email to employees explaining the change: “Now, it is inevitable to convert into electrification.

“Our own engine development is a great achievement, but we must change the system to create future innovation based on the great asset from the past.”

Hyundai has closed its engine development division - report

It seems there will be no all-new replacements for the petrol and diesel engines used in today's Hyundai, Kia and Genesis vehicles.

www.carexpert.com.au

 

[mullokintyre]

Hyundai has closed its engine development division - report

It seems there will be no all-new replacements for the petrol and diesel engines used in today's Hyundai, Kia and Genesis vehicles.

www.carexpert.com.au

Obviously they can't make a good buck (or in this case Kwon) out of engine development.
Like so much on this forum, the headline does not always reflect the story.

It’s understood a small group of engineers will continue to work with internal combustion engines, but they will be responsible for updating existing designs rather than developing new petrol and diesel mills.

So, no they are not completely stopping R and D, just only working on existing engines.
That of course does not preclude them from continuing to make ICE engines, but that will stop when they can no longer make the kwon out of it.
Mick

 

[3 hound]

Hyundai has closed its engine development division - report

It seems there will be no all-new replacements for the petrol and diesel engines used in today's Hyundai, Kia and Genesis vehicles.

www.carexpert.com.au

ICE or any other engine can't develop further than the sweet sound of a V8. That's perfection right there.

 

[sptrawler]

Because it’s becoming unprofitable to keep running it, because there is not enough hours each week when the wholesale price of power is high enough for it to make a decent return, shutting it down takes enough supply out of the market to raise the price for a while, until the supply of renewables keeps expanding again.

Basically in those auctions that determine the prices they will be able to sell their power for, there is enough capacity available from all the other coal plants + wind, solar, hydro etc to push the whole sale price down for most of the day/week.

The big wind and solar generators can look at the weather predictions and have a decent idea of the minimum level of power they will produce and put in offers to supply firm supply against the coal plants, and if the weather report is wrong it’s not a big deal for them because they just have a hedging/insurance contract with a peaker natural gas plant to provide back up for the odd occasion their weather prediction is way off, also some of them now have batteries too.

Eg, a coal plant can have trouble competing against a group that owns three wind farms, two solar plants a battery and had decent meteorologist and hedger/trader, sure some days the coal plants will make decent money, but for enough hours a day their prices will be squeezed but the renewables who’s running costs are rock bottom.

I have had no experience in the operation of the East Coast electrical supply and distribution system, so I wont comment on it as it would be based on assumptions.
I can only comment on the W.A grid system which I have been involved in the operation of, the issue the coal fired steam units are having here is, renewables are given precedence in dispatch as they should be due to the cost and emission advantage, the issue for the coal coal units is they are much less efficient at low loadings that at MCR.
Secondly with the requirement to take units off, to allow the renewables 'room' to supply the load ( generation has to equal demand), causes a lot of thermal stressing to the boiler and turbines which ultimately leads to premature wear and failure.
Thirdly when taking a coal fired unit off and on, there is a huge amount of wasted fuel in obtaining correct steam conditions to actually feed the turbine, before it can be run to speed and synchronised onto the system, this pressure and temperature raising fuel is in effect wasted. Taking a unit on and off, depending on the time the unit has been off for can be up to 12 hours of firing.

In comparison a HE GT can be started synchronised and at full load in about 20 minutes, so there are other larger issues than the market when it comes to dispatching coal plant.

 

[3 hound]

I have had no experience in the operation of the East Coast electrical supply and distribution system, so I wont comment on it as it would be based on assumptions.
I can only comment on the W.A grid system which I have been involved in the operation of, the issue the coal fired steam units are having here is, renewables are given precedence in dispatch as they should be due to the cost and emission advantage, the issue for the coal coal units is they are much less efficient at low loadings that at MCR.
Secondly with the requirement to take units off, to allow the renewables 'room' to supply the load ( generation has to equal demand), causes a lot of thermal stressing to the boiler and turbines which ultimately leads to premature wear and failure.
Thirdly when taking a coal fired unit off and on, there is a huge amount of wasted fuel in obtaining correct steam conditions to actually feed the turbine, before it can be run to speed and synchronised onto the system, this pressure and temperature raising fuel is in effect wasted. Taking a unit on and off, depending on the time the unit has been off for can be up to 12 hours of firing.

In comparison a HE GT can be started synchronised and at full load in about 20 minutes, so there are other larger issues than the market when it comes to dispatching coal plant.

Why does this sound like widespread power outages in our near future.

 

[JohnDe]

Obviously they can't make a good buck (or in this case Kwon) out of engine development.
Like so much on this forum, the headline does not always reflect the story.

So, no they are not completely stopping R and D, just only working on existing engines.
That of course does not preclude them from continuing to make ICE engines, but that will stop when they can no longer make the kwon out of it.
Mick

Audi stops development of new combustion engines

VW subsidiary Audi has abandoned the development of new combustion engines.

“We will no longer develop a new combustion engine, but will adapt our existing combustion engines to new emission rules,” CEO Markus Duesmann told Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in response to EU plans for stricter Euro 7 standards, which he called “technically a huge challenge with little benefit for the environment.”

Nissan will stop developing internal combustion engines — except for the US market, where the demand for gasoline-powered engines is insatiable, particularly for large SUVs and pickup trucks.

 

[sptrawler]

Polestar is getting popular.

Polestar 2 orders paused amid strong demand

You can no longer order a custom-built Polestar 2 electric sedan – though pre-built cars are available in the meantime, and factory orders are expected to re-open in a few weeks' time.

www.drive.com.au

"Due to high demand, we have sold out of current cars in Europe and Australia. As a result, we will close the Configurator for new configured orders in these markets for the time being. We are working to take in new configured car orders and enable the Configurator as soon as we can," a statement from Polestar Australia reads.
In the meantime, buyers in Australia can order one of the "pre-configured" cars already in stock. Polestar told Drive last month as many as 349 pre-configured cars would be available to buy – though as of publishing, the company's website only lists five vehicles available to order immediately.
The cessation of new orders in Australia comes as the Swedish-Chinese brand signs a deal with rental car giant Hertz, which will see it supply 65,000 Polestar 2 sedans over the next five years – with the first joining the Australian fleet in late 2022.

 

[JohnDe]

Polestar is getting popular.

Polestar 2 orders paused amid strong demand

You can no longer order a custom-built Polestar 2 electric sedan – though pre-built cars are available in the meantime, and factory orders are expected to re-open in a few weeks' time.

www.drive.com.au

"Due to high demand, we have sold out of current cars in Europe and Australia. As a result, we will close the Configurator for new configured orders in these markets for the time being. We are working to take in new configured car orders and enable the Configurator as soon as we can," a statement from Polestar Australia reads.
In the meantime, buyers in Australia can order one of the "pre-configured" cars already in stock. Polestar told Drive last month as many as 349 pre-configured cars would be available to buy – though as of publishing, the company's website only lists five vehicles available to order immediately.
The cessation of new orders in Australia comes as the Swedish-Chinese brand signs a deal with rental car giant Hertz, which will see it supply 65,000 Polestar 2 sedans over the next five years – with the first joining the Australian fleet in late 2022.

Yes, 349 vehicles up for grabs in an Australian market of millions of potential buyers would make it popular.

I think this just emphasises the supply problem all the EV manufacturers have (except Tesla).

buyers in Australia can order one of the "pre-configured" cars already in stock. Polestar told Drive last month as many as 349 pre-configured cars would be available to buy – though as of publishing, the company's website only lists five vehicles available to order immediately.

 

[Value Collector]

I have had no experience in the operation of the East Coast electrical supply and distribution system, so I wont comment on it as it would be based on assumptions.
I can only comment on the W.A grid system which I have been involved in the operation of, the issue the coal fired steam units are having here is, renewables are given precedence in dispatch as they should be due to the cost and emission advantage, the issue for the coal coal units is they are much less efficient at low loadings that at MCR.
Secondly with the requirement to take units off, to allow the renewables 'room' to supply the load ( generation has to equal demand), causes a lot of thermal stressing to the boiler and turbines which ultimately leads to premature wear and failure.
Thirdly when taking a coal fired unit off and on, there is a huge amount of wasted fuel in obtaining correct steam conditions to actually feed the turbine, before it can be run to speed and synchronised onto the system, this pressure and temperature raising fuel is in effect wasted. Taking a unit on and off, depending on the time the unit has been off for can be up to 12 hours of firing.

In comparison a HE GT can be started synchronised and at full load in about 20 minutes, so there are other larger issues than the market when it comes to dispatching coal plant.

Here is just one article talking about the situation for the QLD coal power stations

QCC examined the whole of the two company’s businesses, including their retail electricity businesses, but found that the emergence of competing clean energy projects and falling wholesale electricity prices would diminish their profitability within just a few years.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/queensl...r-again-be-profitable-new-analysis-finds/amp/

 

[sptrawler]

Here is just one article talking about the situation for the QLD coal power stations

QCC examined the whole of the two company’s businesses, including their retail electricity businesses, but found that the emergence of competing clean energy projects and falling wholesale electricity prices would diminish their profitability within just a few years.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/queensl...r-again-be-profitable-new-analysis-finds/amp/

Yes we have been discussing the coal generation problems for several years in the General Chat forum, in the 'Future of electrical generation and storage thread'. The issue is a bit off topic here, but the issue isn't going away and the coal generators want to close as early as allowable. That is the main issue, they are required and they don't want to run.
The price they get paid will change, if they are required to ensure the lights stay on, the price will be paid, rather than have rolling blackouts.
It's a bit like rolling up to a servo in the middle of nowhere with an empty tank and saying I'm not prepared to pay that price for the fuel, the guy would say fine, what would you like for dinner and would you like to book a room. ?

From your post, as I was alluding to, coal fired steam plant isn't suitable for the mode of operation it now has to perform :

Queensland's state owned coal plants may never again be profitable, new analysis finds | RenewEconomy

QCC report says many state owned government coal generators may never regain profitability in the face of increased competition from renewables.

reneweconomy.com.au

“Queensland’s coal generators will also require more maintenance. AEMO expect Stanwell to have to invest more than $1bn in routine refurbishments of Stanwell and Tarong power stations between 2025 – 2030. The Callide C4 incident demonstrated the vulnerability of coal to catastrophic and expensive failure.”

This next article does explain the issue a bit, but since it was written OCGT efficiencies have improved enormously, they are now reaching 45% efficiencies, where the coal steam plant get around 36% thermal efficiency, but we don't have enough capacity to shut the coal down.
AsI said we are heading off topic and really probably should move the issue to 'the future of electrical generation and storage thread' IMO

COLUMN-To survive, coal power plants must become more flexible: Kemp

Integrating an increasing supply of wind, solar and other variable sources of power onto the grid will require conventional plants to become more flexible. The question is whether coal-fired generators are up to the challenge.

www.reuters.com

FLEXIBLE GAS VERSUS COAL​

The obvious choice is to rely on open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT) to back up variable resources. Resembling the jet engines employed on aircraft, OCGTs are already used to provide fast-response emergency power supplies at times of peak demand.

Because these turbines do not have to heat large volumes of water to raise steam, they can ramp up quickly. OCGTs can ramp up to maximum output in just 10-15 minutes, compared with the four to eight hours that it takes a large coal power plant to reach full output even from a warm start.

But OCGTs are also inefficient and expensive. Peaking plants that use OCGT technology charge very high prices to supply extra power for 100 hours a year or less. They also generate lots of greenhouse emissions.

So the power industry is searching for ways to make the rest of the conventional generation portfolio more flexible too. Coal producers and generators are understandably keen to talk up the ability of coal-fired units to step into the gap.

Until recently, the debate largely ignored coal. Coal is neither as clean as nuclear nor as flexible as OCGT. The assumption was that nuclear would run as baseload and gas would provide flexible response. But the power industry has begun to take another look at how coal can be run more flexibly in future.

HIGHER OPERATING COSTS​

The operational and financial challenges of operating conventional plants in a more flexible mode are enormous.

Large-scale power plants take hours to warm up to operating temperature and synchronise their turbines with the grid.

“(Grid operators) may have to cycle resources on and off more than once a day,” the North American Electric Reliability Corporation explained in a recent report on integrated renewables in California.

“At times this may not be an option because the down time between shutdown and start-up of a resource may be too long, which would prevent the resource from being restarted in time for system peak,” NERC concluded.

 

[mullokintyre]

I "orderd" one of the Polestar preconfigured vehicles about 3 weeks ago by putting down 1000 bucks.
Got a polestar ID, buts thats about all.
I suspect that when the company has got orders for all the vehicles, it will have an idea of what the public wants in terms of "extras".
I suspect that these 349 cars are not even built yet, but they will configure them to order and ship them out in one hit.
I was really only interested in range, not any of the fancy extras.
Be interesting to see if I actually get one of the pre configured cars.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

I "orderd" one of the Polestar preconfigured vehicles about 3 weeks ago by putting down 1000 bucks.
Got a polestar ID, buts thats about all.
I suspect that when the company has got orders for all the vehicles, it will have an idea of what the public wants in terms of "extras".
I suspect that these 349 cars are not even built yet, but they will configure them to order and ship them out in one hit.
I was really only interested in range, not any of the fancy extras.
Be interesting to see if I actually get one of the pre configured cars.
Mick

Have you and your wife modified your list of requirements?

As I recall some of your requirements were
AWD.
300+ range,
service centre nearby and
price.

From the Polster site I can only see an option for FWD (Front Wheel Drive) at $83,000 for the long range. I'm guessing that the AWD would be close to six figures, when and if available for Australia.

Has the dealer given you different information to what is on the web site?

Pure progressive performance | Polestar

www.polestar.com

#5,556

 

[Value Collector]

Yes we have been discussing the coal generation problems for several years in the General Chat forum, in the 'Future of electrical generation and storage thread'. The issue is a bit off topic here, but the issue isn't going away and the coal generators want to close as early as allowable. That is the main issue, they are required and they don't want to run.
The price they get paid will change, if they are required to ensure the lights stay on, the price will be paid, rather than have rolling blackouts.
It's a bit like rolling up to a servo in the middle of nowhere with an empty tank and saying I'm not prepared to pay that price for the fuel, the guy would say fine, what would you like for dinner and would you like to book a room. ?

From your post, as I was alluding to, coal fired steam plant isn't suitable for the mode of operation it now has to perform :

Queensland's state owned coal plants may never again be profitable, new analysis finds | RenewEconomy

QCC report says many state owned government coal generators may never regain profitability in the face of increased competition from renewables.

reneweconomy.com.au

“Queensland’s coal generators will also require more maintenance. AEMO expect Stanwell to have to invest more than $1bn in routine refurbishments of Stanwell and Tarong power stations between 2025 – 2030. The Callide C4 incident demonstrated the vulnerability of coal to catastrophic and expensive failure.”

This next article does explain the issue a bit, but since it was written OCGT efficiencies have improved enormously, they are now reaching 45% efficiencies, where the coal steam plant get around 36% thermal efficiency, but we don't have enough capacity to shut the coal down.
AsI said we are heading off topic and really probably should move the issue to 'the future of electrical generation and storage thread' IMO

COLUMN-To survive, coal power plants must become more flexible: Kemp

Integrating an increasing supply of wind, solar and other variable sources of power onto the grid will require conventional plants to become more flexible. The question is whether coal-fired generators are up to the challenge.

www.reuters.com

FLEXIBLE GAS VERSUS COAL​

The obvious choice is to rely on open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT) to back up variable resources. Resembling the jet engines employed on aircraft, OCGTs are already used to provide fast-response emergency power supplies at times of peak demand.

Because these turbines do not have to heat large volumes of water to raise steam, they can ramp up quickly. OCGTs can ramp up to maximum output in just 10-15 minutes, compared with the four to eight hours that it takes a large coal power plant to reach full output even from a warm start.

But OCGTs are also inefficient and expensive. Peaking plants that use OCGT technology charge very high prices to supply extra power for 100 hours a year or less. They also generate lots of greenhouse emissions.

So the power industry is searching for ways to make the rest of the conventional generation portfolio more flexible too. Coal producers and generators are understandably keen to talk up the ability of coal-fired units to step into the gap.

Until recently, the debate largely ignored coal. Coal is neither as clean as nuclear nor as flexible as OCGT. The assumption was that nuclear would run as baseload and gas would provide flexible response. But the power industry has begun to take another look at how coal can be run more flexibly in future.

HIGHER OPERATING COSTS​

The operational and financial challenges of operating conventional plants in a more flexible mode are enormous.

Large-scale power plants take hours to warm up to operating temperature and synchronise their turbines with the grid.

“(Grid operators) may have to cycle resources on and off more than once a day,” the North American Electric Reliability Corporation explained in a recent report on integrated renewables in California.

“At times this may not be an option because the down time between shutdown and start-up of a resource may be too long, which would prevent the resource from being restarted in time for system peak,” NERC concluded.

Yep, as an APA Group shareholder, I have been thinking about the role gas will play in the transition, and whether APA’s has Infrastructure will be profitable long enough for them to complete their move to renewables without having a major drop in revenues. (I have noticed since the Liddell coal plant closed it first unit the other day gas usage on the east coast grid has risen)

So far I am feeling pretty confident that they we be a beneficiary of the coal plants demise, at least for the next 20 years, past that it is a question of how much of the industrial, commercial and residential gas usage moves to electricity and maybe to what extent (if any) the exisiting gas pipelines can play a part in any hydrogen economy that develops.

As I said though APA are making investments into renewables and electricity transmission, so that side of the business will be fertile ground for a long time, we just need to see the gas business decline at a rate slow enough that it can produce net cash flows for a long time.