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That assumes many things.Bearing in mind that ICE's are still being manufactured, and still account for the overwhelming majority of new vehicle sales, it's a given that they'll still be a substantial portion of the fleet in 2040.
By 2040, who knows what will be available.
In 2000, no one would have guessed, we would be where we are today.
Well for all that foreknowledge available 20+ years ago, all I can say is the legacy manufacturers, have certainly been caught flat footed by Tesla.In relation to cars, pretty much all that is happening now in the automotive world was was being discussed and developed 20+ years ago.
Unless you’re a mad automotive enthusiast or involved in the industry you’d be lucky to know 10% of what was coming.
I am both, in the industry & a car nut with my father’s help from also being in the industry.
What is happening is currently being introduced doesn’t surprise me, because I’ve seen it at the seminars and read about it in the journals during for over 20 years, what surprises me is that has taken most by surprise and a few are fighting it with megaphones & toothpicks.
Average age of a car but lifespan is about double that.First average car ownership is about 10 years
why would you drive anything less safe and more expensive to operate, assuming their fuels were readily available, which is also unlikely.
Well for all that foreknowledge available 20+ years ago, all I can say is the legacy manufacturers, have certainly been caught flat footed by Tesla.
A bit like the K.O'd heavyweight saying, "I knew that was coming", as he drags his ar$e off the canvas.
That happens with a lot of things.Well for all that foreknowledge available 20+ years ago, all I can say is the legacy manufacturers, have certainly been caught flat footed by Tesla.
That kind of contradicts your previous post, that the automakers were prepared and ready to go. But hey as long as Tesla is good about it, the rate of change will accelerate, which is good for everyone.Not sure if this has been printed here before -
All Our Patent Are Belong To You
Elon Musk, CEOJune 12, 2014
Yesterday, there was a wall of Tesla patents in the lobby of our Palo Alto headquarters. That is no longer the case. They have been removed, in the spirit of the open source movement, for the advancement of electric vehicle technology.
Tesla Motors was created to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. If we clear a path to the creation of compelling electric vehicles, but then lay intellectual property landmines behind us to inhibit others, we are acting in a manner contrary to that goal. Tesla will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use our technology.
When I started out with my first company, Zip2, I thought patents were a good thing and worked hard to obtain them. And maybe they were good long ago, but too often these days they serve merely to stifle progress, entrench the positions of giant corporations and enrich those in the legal profession, rather than the actual inventors. After Zip2, when I realized that receiving a patent really just meant that you bought a lottery ticket to a lawsuit, I avoided them whenever possible.
At Tesla, however, we felt compelled to create patents out of concern that the big car companies would copy our technology and then use their massive manufacturing, sales and marketing power to overwhelm Tesla. We couldn’t have been more wrong. The unfortunate reality is the opposite: electric car programs (or programs for any vehicle that doesn’t burn hydrocarbons) at the major manufacturers are small to non-existent, constituting an average of far less than 1% of their total vehicle sales.
At best, the large automakers are producing electric cars with limited range in limited volume. Some produce no zero emission cars at all.
Given that annual new vehicle production is approaching 100 million per year and the global fleet is approximately 2 billion cars, it is impossible for Tesla to build electric cars fast enough to address the carbon crisis. By the same token, it means the market is enormous. Our true competition is not the small trickle of non-Tesla electric cars being produced, but rather the enormous flood of gasoline cars pouring out of the world’s factories every day.
We believe that Tesla, other companies making electric cars, and the world would all benefit from a common, rapidly-evolving technology platform.
Technology leadership is not defined by patents, which history has repeatedly shown to be small protection indeed against a determined competitor, but rather by the ability of a company to attract and motivate the world’s most talented engineers. We believe that applying the open source philosophy to our patents will strengthen rather than diminish Tesla’s position in this regard.
All Our Patent Are Belong To You
Yesterday, there was a wall of Tesla patents in the lobby of our Palo Alto headquarters. That is no longer the case. They have been removed, in the spirit of the open source movement, for the advancement of electric vehicle technology.www.tesla.com
That kind of contradicts your previous post, that the automakers were prepared and ready to go. But hey as long as Tesla is good about it, the rate of change will accelerate, which is good for everyone.
Completely misses the point!Just as the average Australian is 37 years old but average lifespan is ~80.
Again, completely misses the point.Much the same reason cars are roughly 20 years showroom to wreckers today.
They're an expensive purchase and a large portion of the population simply can't afford to not get full life out of them. Hence most cars end up with more than one owner - someone with more money buys it new then sells it to someone with less money who may well then later sell it to someone with even less money.
Right now (= today) Chinese automakers are producing BEVs cheaper than ICE because they are relatively simple builds when started from scratch on a dedicated NEV platform. The only factor making them more expensive than ICE is a battery choice for longer range driving. China has over a million charging points (sounds a lot but not for a population with the high BEV take up rates it has) so for that market they can literally afford cheaper options. Also, their high speed train network makes it cheaper to travel that way for longer journeys than drive (as we here would do).If @rederob all that you say is true, it definitely highlights the reason incentives will not be required, to encourage the uptake of EV's.
Which is unfortunate, as some of us would appreciate one.lol
The big difference with a phone is that a smartphone offers major user advantages over any other phone.Completely misses the point!
I have all my old analog phones, and they will last a lifetime. In fact I have a shed full of things that have been superseded so lifespan is only a consideration when you have no other options.
Average age 10 years = average lifespan roughly double that so 20 years.It's irrelevant how much you pay for something if its no longer practical, economic or safe to use it. Moreover, I indicated the average age of a vehicle at 10 years, so the average period of ownership is much less.
Not single point you made was relevant.The big difference with a phone is that a smartphone offers major user advantages over any other phone.
Plus it’s a relatively minor purchase. A cheap one can be bought at the Post Office or in a supermarket and even going upmarket is still only a fortnight’s pay for an average worker.
Versus an EV which does nothing an ICE doesn’t do and which is a very major purchase for most, commonly only possible with finance over several years.
Well, that’s the case unless EV’s gain something major over ICE which is not the case with current models. You still have to register it and attach number plates, speed limits still ap
The big difference with a phone is that a smartphone offers major user advantages over any other phone.
Plus it’s a relatively minor purchase. A cheap one can be bought at the Post Office or in a supermarket and even going upmarket is still only a fortnight’s pay for an average worker.
Versus an EV which does nothing an ICE doesn’t do and which is a very major purchase for most, commonly only possible with finance over several years.
Well, that’s the case unless EV’s gain something major over ICE which is not the case with current models. You still have to register it and attach number plates, speed limits still apply as do parking time limits and fees, you still need a license to drive and so on.
EV’s would need to be drastically cheaper to purchase than their ICE counterparts or offer some major advantage to see the entire ICE fleet scrapped more quickly than it would ordinarily turn over.
An EV is ultimately just a car with a different means of making it move but it still does the same thing, it's still a car.
ply as do parking time limits and fees, you still need a license to drive and so on.
EV’s would need to be drastically cheaper to purchase than their ICE counterparts or offer some major advantage to see the entire ICE fleet scrapped more quickly than it would ordinarily turn over.
An EV is ultimately just a car with a different means of making it move but it still does the same thing, it's still a car.
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