Electric cars? for Aspies, Narcissists and Power Grid people

[Chronos-Plutus]

You began your crusade with a poorly based view of Australia's ability to accommodate EV penetration.
Like any country adapting to EVs, there is going to be a lag in putting in place every measure necessary, so some problems will occur along the way while catch-up happens. Norway is no exception.
With regard to research, EVs in norway are 16% of vehicles on the road, not the 9% you quote.
Aside from that EVs constituted a 16% share of new passenger sales in 2019, and in March 2020 "plug-in vehicles" represented over 75% of vehicle sales.
If what you spout was credible then their grid would have fried and EV sales dried up in Norway. Interestingly, wind and solar have made major contributions to Norway's capacity. And bidirectional flows are proving useful in stabilising Norway's grid.
It seems that you and the real world are at odds.

You clearly haven't done your homework, once again.

I really think that your understanding of energy is sub-optimal for the ideological, loud, and delusional trumpet that you blow continuously.

Wind and solar are infinitesimal relative to hydro-electric in Norway.

~9% of all vehicles registered are full electric in Norway, as of the start of this year. Australia has a basket case, unreliable, patchy, poorly integrated, low producing electricity network compared to Norway with their essentially abundant hydro-electric network with storage capacity that is 70% of their entire electricity consumption. What is Australia's storage capacity?

You have been told why Norway has been able to move so quickly; acknowledge the points directly or discontinue your nonsensical rants that are based on ideology.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

The issue in Australia IMO is it has been emotionally and politically driven, rather than technically driven, so a lot of what has happened over East hasn't been well planned.
This in turn IMO has led to the situation where as happened in S.A, the system became unstable and unreliable, due to just building asynchronous plant and shutting down synchronous plant.
It appears now that the AEMO is taking a lead role and a more holistic approach is being adopted, the next 10 years should see major changes.
As Snowy 2.0 and the Tassie battery come on line, it will be an instant storage sink for the renewables and should see the faster deployment of large scale renewable farms be facilitated.
The main thing holding back the uptake of electric cars IMO is, they don't do anything that an ICE car can't do and cost a hell of a lot more.
So until the price comes down and the batteries last longer/or are replaceable, so that a second hand one becomes viable most people will stick with what they know.
As you say it wont happen quickly.
The ranters and chanters will continue on, but the majority will just buy what is best for them. It wasn't that long ago that the newspapers were full of global warming, telling people to head for the hills, the same politicians that were talking it up are now buying houses on the beach front. Go Figure.
Just my opinions.

How is Australia going to get the 70% storage capacity that Norway have?

 

[sptrawler]

How is Australia going to get the 70% storage capacity that Norway have?

That is a huge issue, batteries are at this point a consumable and need regular replacement.
I think I read there are apparently 20,000 sites or so, suitable for pumped storage, but the size/versus cost will determine how many are commercially viable.
Once we move inland from the East coast mountains, the sites will have minimal fall, therefore will require a lot of volume.
This will then bring into play the problem of land procurement, environmental issues and native title issues, it wont be a smooth "oh just put one there, there and we will have another over there" process IMO.
The last major dam that was stopped was the Gordon on Franklin in Tasmania and that got pretty nasty, @Smurf would be able to explain it better he lived through it in Tassie.
So history kind of says it all sounds great on paper, the doing might be a bit more problematic.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

That is a huge issue, batteries are at this point a consumable and need regular replacement.
I think I read there are apparently 2,000 sites or so, suitable for pumped storage, but the size/versus cost will determine how many are commercially viable.
Once we move inland from the East coast mountains, the sites will have minimal fall, therefore will require a lot of volume.
This will then bring into play the problem of land procurement, environmental issues and native title issues, it wont be a smooth "oh just put one there, there and we will have another over there" process IMO.

Totally agree.

 

[rederob]

You clearly haven't done your homework, once again.

I really think that your understanding of energy is sub-optimal for the ideological, loud, and delusional trumpet that you blow continuously.

Wind and solar are infinitesimal relative to hydro-electric in Norway.

~9% of all vehicles registered are full electric in Norway, as of the start of this year. Australia has a basket case, unreliable, patchy, poorly integrated, low producing electricity network compared to Norway with their essentially abundant hydro-electric network with storage capacity that is 70% of their entire electricity consumption. What is Australia's storage capacity?

You have been told why Norway has been able to move so quickly; acknowledge the points directly or discontinue your nonsensical rants that are based on ideology.

You make a habit of missing the point.
Australia has more than adequate capacity right now to accommodate a very large EV fleet: @Smurf1976 has laid out the maths in a separate thread.
BTW, Norway's electricity generation is about 95% hydro, so using a "storage" metric (of 70%) is here not wise; an empty dam needs replenishment!

 

[sptrawler]

Totally agree.

Getting a bit off topic but this is an interesting article on pumped storage, especially the sea water pumped storage suggested for Port Augusta S.A, it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/pumped-hydro-anu-mb0988/

Also from the same article, is an interesting sub article on batteries, which is very good.
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/does-battery-storage-help-or-hurt-the-environment/

With batteries, there is an awful lot of hope and promise, built on them getting a whole lot better.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

You make a habit of missing the point.
Australia has more than adequate capacity right now to accommodate a very large EV fleet: @Smurf1976 has laid out the maths in a separate thread.
BTW, Norway's electricity generation is about 95% hydro, so using a "storage" metric (of 70%) is here not wise; an empty dam needs replenishment!

You have a habit of ignoring facts that don't suit your narrative. I told you why Norway has been able to move forward so quickly. Australia is not even in the same league as Norway when it comes to the electrification of our transportation network.

Now you can't handle the argument based on facts, you run and refer the argument to someone else.

 

[basilio]

Only if you do a lot of driving.
The $20k price differential, buys a lot of fuel and maintenance.

Only to some people. Most are more concerned about what they cost to buy.

That really only helps the manufacturer, if the cost doesn't come down, the consumer will buy the the cheaper model. An ICE car is $20k cheaper than the same EV.

Then people will buy them, which is what I said.

The drive to reduce greenhouse gases to slow down global warming is at the heart of moving to clean renewable energy and the electrifying as many transport and industrial process as possible. Reducing the amount of particulate pollution in cities from transport and industry is also a high current health priority.

The current crop of EV cars are largely expensive because of the battery packs but this is certainly changing quickly. (They are also expensive because making a big, powerful expensive statement with an EV is an easier sell to a niche market and more profitable..)

The intrinsic simplicity of EV cars vs ICE would indicate that they will be cheaper to make after initial R & D costs are amortized.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Getting a bit off topic but this is an interesting article on pumped storage, especially the sea water pumped storage suggested for Port Augusta S.A, it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/pumped-hydro-anu-mb0988/

225MW helps a little I guess. However, is it feasible? How much will it cost?

Norway have something like ~85TWh of stored capacity for a population of ~5 million.

 

[rederob]

You have a habit of ignoring facts that don't suit your narrative. I told you why Norway has been able to move forward so quickly. Australia is not even in the same league as Norway when it comes to the electrification of our transportation network.

Now you can't handle the argument based on facts, you run and refer the argument to someone else.

The reason Norway leads in EV penetration is due to its green commitment and incentivisation, and not its generation capacity.
Numerically China and the USA have more EVs.
As to my narrative, well, it's a continuing rebuttal of point of yours that don't stack up.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

The reason Norway leads in EV penetration is due to its green commitment and incentivisation, and not its generation capacity.
Numerically China and the USA have more EVs.
As to my narrative, well, it's a continuing rebuttal of point of yours that don't stack up.

Are you not reading your own posts?

One minute you say look at Norway and how rapid they are electrifying their transportation and then the next minute you're saying don't look at Norway's electrical capacity, storage, and grid.

You really are a cooked goose.

Numerically China are building, planning and proposing to build 100s of nuclear powerplants.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

As we are all social beings and live in a society with it's norms, e.g filling up one's car at a servo anywhere and driving on or away, there will need to be a change in people's behaviour to accomplish the wider uptake of EV.

This may not be as simple as it would appear to those "on the spectrum" technologists and engineer/electrical types on this thread.

Many of us are happy numpties who resist change, and any solutions will need to be take in to account social mores and acceptability to the average punter.

Price will need to come down dramatically which is where I see the argument going nowhere in the adoption of other than the ICE in the near future. It also needs to be simple.

I believe there will be a brainfart moment akin to a good blackswan wherein some genius will come up with a better solution thinking outside the present box.

It all sounds like a blind person playing Texas Holdem with a deaf interpreter in train.

Ockhams Razor it ain't.

gg

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Getting a bit off topic but this is an interesting article on pumped storage, especially the sea water pumped storage suggested for Port Augusta S.A, it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/pumped-hydro-anu-mb0988/

Also from the same article, is an interesting sub article on batteries, which is very good.
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/does-battery-storage-help-or-hurt-the-environment/

With batteries, there is an awful lot of hope and promise, built on them getting a whole lot better.

Also: Norway are a very wealthy nation who spent decades selling oil to the world, building their trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund, to build their gold plated hydro-electric green network; to now begin rapidly transitioning to electrify their transportation, while virtue signaling the world on how green they are.

 

[sptrawler]

225MW helps a little I guess. However, is it feasible? How much will it cost?

The other issue that I can't help but wonder about is the environmental aspect, of pumping saltwater inland, the is fairly arid but i would have thought there may be a blue wren or a rare lizard found.

Norway have something like ~85TWh of stored capacity for a population of ~5 million.

That is an amazing amount of storage, the other benefit with hydro is it has inertia and is at call dispatch, solar and wind don't have inertia and aren't at call dispatch.
That is a huge advantage with regard grid stability.

 

[rederob]

One minute you say look at Norway and how rapid they are electrifying their transportation and then the next minute you're saying don't look at Norway's electrical capacity, storage, and grid.

You introduced Norway, and I commented on the fact that despite world leading per capita EV take-up they have had few problems. Yet grid problems and capacity issues have been the nub of your many posts - points you have ignored now on dozens of occasions.
China's nuclear power build is to do largely with natural incremental needs, plus replacing coal, and has little to do with EV adoption.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

You introduced Norway, and I commented on the fact that despite world leading per capita EV take-up they have had few problems. Yet grid problems and capacity issues have been the nub of your many posts - points you have ignored now on dozens of occasions.
China's nuclear power build is to do largely with natural incremental needs, plus replacing coal, and has little to do with EV adoption.

We have facts and evidence to work with looking at Norway; not assumptions, forecasts and opinions.

You continuously ignore Norway's capability to transition to a full electric transportation environment; and the monumental task and cost for Australia to follow the same path.

Lucky we don't have people like you in Canberra advising today's government on energy policy, because you're a national security threat.

 

[rederob]

You continuously ignore Norway's capability to transition to a full electric transportation environment; and the monumental task and cost for Australia to follow the same path.
Lucky we don't have people like you in Canberra advising today's government on energy policy, because you're a national security threat.

Norway is a small country and incentivised EV ownership. Their EV leadership has nothing to do with grid/load/capacity.
Australia has no problems accommodating EV ownership, but is not incentivising it or assisting by rolling out a recharging network; those are left to the private sector.

 

[sptrawler]

The drive to reduce greenhouse gases to slow down global warming is at the heart of moving to clean renewable energy and the electrifying as many transport and industrial process as possible. Reducing the amount of particulate pollution in cities from transport and industry is also a high current health priority.

The current crop of EV cars are largely expensive because of the battery packs but this is certainly changing quickly. (They are also expensive because making a big, powerful expensive statement with an EV is an easier sell to a niche market and more profitable..)

The intrinsic simplicity of EV cars vs ICE would indicate that they will be cheaper to make after initial R & D costs are amortized.

You don't have to convince me, I didn't question you, you questioned me.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

The other issue that I can't help but wonder about is the environmental aspect, of pumping saltwater inland, the is fairly arid but i would have thought there may be a blue wren or a rare lizard found.


That is an amazing amount of storage, the other benefit with hydro is it has inertia and is at call dispatch, solar and wind don't have inertia and aren't at call dispatch.
That is a huge advantage with regard grid stability.

Also the water is free in Norway, the hydro-electric installations have a long-life and can provide a high capacity factor, the natural reservoirs have enormous storage capacity. Norway's grid was designed for high electrical consumption per capita.

Norway is a small country and incentivised EV ownership. Their EV leadership has nothing to do with grid/load/capacity.
Australia has no problems accommodating EV ownership, but is not incentising it or assisting by rolling out a recharging network; those are left to the private sector.

OK; you keep telling yourself that if you like. People who are experienced in energy know that it is all about capacity, production, storage, grid and consumption. Australia can't afford an incentive package like Norway; nor can Australia allow a significant uptake in EVs without first having all the boxes ticked on capacity, production, storage and grid issues.

 

[sptrawler]

Australia has no problems accommodating EV ownership, but is not incentising it or assisting by rolling out a recharging network; those are left to the private sector.

And there in lies the issue, the taxpayer pays to install the infrastructure, so they then be forced to change at their cost while the suppliers of the products can keep their profit margins.
If EV's are cheaper to build for the auto companies and fuel companies are going to lose out and power companies are going to gain, why would the tax payer pay to roll out the infrastructure? That forces the taxpayer to replace their vehicle, while making the auto companies and power generators more profitable..
Labor policy at its best.