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Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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Just look at Spain. Workers allegedly left nursing homes and the elderly were found dead in their beds. Looks worse then italy at the moment.
 

Yep, reality is that a lot of people seem to not grasp the concept of compound growth. If they did then pretty much their entire world view would change in an instant.

Constant compounding growth, of anything, ends up an impossibly big number and that usually means disaster.

InsvestoBoy said:
NSW has like 900 ICU beds. Do you think those beds are lying empty awaiting COVID-19 patients? No they are full of people who got hit by a car or have bad influenza or cancer is ******* up their body.
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I've had a family member spend considerable time in ICU some years ago following a "routine" operation which went wrong.

They're permanently on the list to never be given anesthetic ever again. Took months to wake them up last time and the whole ICU environment is pretty full on yes.

Simple reality is that the system does not have capacity to cope with a major outbreak of this disease without a lot of people ending up dead and quite a few more surviving but with their lungs stuffed. There's plenty of people in the community, not just old ones either, who are dead if they get this.

I'd liken it to catching a bus. The only way to do it requires that at some point you are ahead of the bus, the bus stops and you get on. Constantly running down the road behind it, never getting in front, means you're failing and will not be getting on the bus. You need to get in front at some point and board the bus. It's much the same with this virus - we need to have action that's stronger than the virus' spread at that point in time. Sooner we do it, the less drastic that action needs to be but it needs to jump in front of the curve not run behind it.

InsvestoBoy said:
I know a lot of people on this forum are Liberal supporters
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In my case I'll give any of them a kick when they deserve it. Sadly Labor, Liberal, Greens, One Nation etc all play politics rather than leading and all are failures at the practical application of really basic mathematics. All play the same games just twisted to fit whatever issues they choose to run with.

It's a sad reality that the average self-employed tradesman or school canteen has better accounting systems than the political parties are able to implement when it comes to policy. I mean seriously, look into the detail of policy and they all struggle to not give favours to certain interests, claim credit for things already done or which are inevitable regardless of what they do and so on.

Minor detail aside, we'd be in a broadly similar situation no matter who was in government.

Consider how many warnings governments and opposition parties have received over the years from doctors, environmental scientists, engineers and so on about various things. All ignored or close to it by all the significant parties unless grabbing a token piece of it suits their objectives.

Wouldn't it be a real nuisance if we get the virus sorted, tell everyone it's back to business as usual, then have to promptly shut everything not essential once again this time because there's a crisis with power supply, gas, water or whatever. The chance of that is not zero by the way, indeed it's more likely than a virus pandemic, but governments of all persuasions continue to ignore the warnings and hope it doesn't happen. Someday it will......
 
While I have no doubt there are good arguments for (and against) the hard lockdown option it seems like some of the calls for a hard lockdown have almost a masochistic quality to them. "Humanity has sinned and now we must be punished" It's similar to some of the sentiment you see with the climate change debate.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Y
Minor detail aside, we'd be in a broadly similar situation no matter who was in government.
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I disagree and you only have to look at how Daniel Andrews has communicated to his state to see that your statement is wrong.
 
Beware, the hoarders are out in force once again:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...s/news-story/2292c9ce3b9ea5bbc55ff7cc1b8f299c


Garden sprayers? Batteries? Turpentine? Generators?

If anyone thinks we can electrocute the virus and get rid of it then I'm sure I can organise far more power than you'll get out of any portable generator sold in a hardware shop.

As for running around the garden spraying turps everywhere
 
People are too stupid to stay away from each other. I think we need 80% to lockdown for infection to slow under modeling. Not 70% as it has little effect.
 
My main concern is, having a shutdown and all the ramifications of it, then lifting the shutdown and 6 weeks later being in the same place again.
We need testing equipment to get an idea of how widespread it is and where it is.
We are probably on the end of a queue for testing equipment, they are probably being allocated on a needs based system and Europe and the U.S will be at the head of the queue.
Just my opinion.
 
InsvestoBoy said:
I disagree and you only have to look at how Daniel Andrews has communicated to his state to see that your statement is wrong.
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The same Daniel Andrews who was still thinking a Grand Prix was going to happen, complete with people flying in from a known infection hot spot, until others pulled the rug from under it?

The same one who was trying to keep a casino open until ScoMo decided otherwise?

Sure he's arguably done a better job of leading in general than the Australian government in some ways but then the same could be said of other state premiers so it's more a state versus federal thing than a Labor versus Liberal one.

Does anyone think that if Labor had won the last federal election then they'd have moved to reduce Australia's economic reliance on any single industry and on any single foreign country? If they had a plan to get manufacturing going again and not be reliant on others for essential items then they kept awfully quiet about it. They'd plausibly have won the election if they'd drawn attention to such a policy.

All much the same. Both sides and most of the others are wedded to the status quo and don't want to upset it in any way really even though the risks are obvious to many. This virus has forced the upset that was always going to happen at some point......
 
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The historical data behind this site is available by state for AUS from a github link at the bottom of the web page. If you are 1/2 way maths inclined and can drive a spreadsheet you can download the historical .csv file and model the progress of the disease in your own state.
 
InsvestoBoy said:
That is a crazy story.

Where the **** was ASIO on this? Massive intelligence failure.
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I don't think it was illegal.
They may have had good intentions and wanted to help their country. It looks bad after the fact though.
 
sptrawler said:
Sounds like some of the Sydney ferries are closing, over the virus.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...uise-and-ferry-operators-20200326-p54e96.html
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I'm living near a ferry wharf; the 5pm, from Barangaroo, usually disembarks 100+ commuters. Yesterday it was 3. Now run by TransDev, and contracted by the state govt, will milk it for as long as possible. The unions, proud upholders of their 19th century practices, will fight tooth and nail any stand-downs.

The tourist boats have stopped (Mainly Sealink - see Ann .... Capn Cook is owned by them, too)) and the party boats, those lockout law evaders, have been forced to halt.
 
Smurf1976 said:
If they had a plan to get manufacturing going again and not be reliant on others for essential items then they kept awfully quiet about it. They'd plausibly have won the election if they'd drawn attention to such a policy.
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I seem to recall they said something about an electric car industry, but that was a long time ago now.
 
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