Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[satanoperca]

men being men. Someone loses their job and literally cant feed their family, but if they just "man up" everything will be OK? What the hell is wrong with you. I have absolutely no doubt you are one of those oxygen thieves who bought all the toilet paper for yourself and would refuse to let anyone have any even if you had half the stash in the world.

People like you are what is wrong with the world today, no compassion, selfish. I pity you.

This is exactly the response I expect from a pathetic man.

Who the hell are you to make assumptions about me and my life, you are another piss ant.

Accusing me of being an oxygen thieve, just another pathetic response, I hope you do not consider yourself a man or actually a person.

So based on your stupid statements, I present to you, via private mail my phone number to discuss your comments in a rational way, no doubt, you will not call. Why, because you are are another key board warrior, which I am not.

 

[Joe Blow]

Could everyone please calm down. I realise most people are pretty tense at the moment with everything that is going on right now, but there is no need to start tearing strips off each other.

Let's get this thread back on topic please.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Getting back to the reality. The Govt will move to Stage 2 tonight. Lockdown looms

I wuz wrong. Too much incremental waffle and qualifying of what should happen.

 

[satanoperca]

Sorry Joe, but this thread is on tack, economics is about people/govnuts being leaders, if you cannot handle the hot kitchen, get out.

These are not normal times, we get to see those with virtue and conviction, this is a site based on shares, everything in discussion effects share price, abet in a small way it, it all effects us.

 

[Joe Blow]

Sorry Joe, but this thread is on tack, economics is about people/govnuts being leaders, if you cannot handle the hot kitchen, get out.

These are not normal times, we get to see those with virtue and conviction, this is a site based on shares, everything in discussion effects share price, abet in a small way it, it all effects us.

Fair enough. I'm all for everyone here discussing the economic impact of COVID-19 on the Australian and global economy.

I'm just asking that it be done without things turning personal. No useful or constructive debate/discussion can be had if it does.

 

[MrChow]

Australians are mostly worried about money and slightly more worried about toilet paper and dealing with dickheads than dying.

 

[Smurf1976]

What the govnuts can give to you, what happened to men being men, leaders being leaders.

What, exactly, do you propose that anyone ought to have done or be doing that they aren't already?

The average citizen can't exactly stop people getting off ships and so on so apart from following all the advice to avoid getting infected, self-isolating to avoid spreading it if they do get it, and looking after things like finances and so on there's not a huge amount more the average person can really do. It's not like a flood where we can all help fill the sandbags and so on.

 

[Wyatt]

On a lighter note and not intending to be partisan, I thought Scomos briefing tonight was excellent, very candid and well delivered on not only information but on an emotional level.
After watching part of the US head's speech earlier. I couldn't help but shake my head in disbelief about the message delivered. Maybe I missed the important bits like the support packages for the masses. She'll be right mate, we'll be good to go after a short breather cause that's what we do.
Problem may be that if the lower socio economic lot over there bear the brunt, who's gunna do all the work for sfa?
Of course if the magic malaria and aids drugs work, which seemed to be a major factor in the reasoning, then I'm just an ignorant fool. Again.

Reckon we'll be weeks in front of them, re population recovery wise. I doubt markets will care about that.
Markets seem itching for a run up.

As has been demonstrated by the Chinese, transmission of this curse can be quickly reduced/stopped if everyone pulls the head in and does the right thing.

The cruise ship unload in Sydney last Thursday was an epic screw up, what were they thinking?

Reckon the 1 million Aussies quoted as loosing their jobs this week could be understated as 3 out of 4 of mine lost their jobs.
Stay safe and keep your chins up.

 

[Smurf1976]

I'm all for everyone here discussing the economic impact of COVID-19 on the Australian and global economy.

I'm just asking that it be done without things turning personal.

Agreed definitely.

As a general comment aimed broadly to everyone, I think we must all bear in mind that a lot of people will be finding this extremely stressful for a range of reasons from financial to being stranded on the wrong side of a border to being at risk of death. It's a difficult time for just about everyone in some way.

ASF is one of, perhaps the, most civilised places online so let's all keep it that way. Anger won't help any of us out of this mess.

 

[qldfrog]

So denial fear and now anger stage is reached even before the real death toll starts

 

[Joe Blow]

As a general comment aimed broadly to everyone, I think we must all bear in mind that a lot of people will be finding this extremely stressful for a range of reasons from financial to being stranded on the wrong side of a border to being at risk of death. It's a difficult time for just about everyone in some way.

This is exactly why I'm not interested in playing the blame game. I know that most people are anxious, stressed out, and worried about their own future and that of their loved ones. We don't just have a virus to be concerned about, we have a stock market that has fallen ~30% in the last few weeks, people are losing their jobs, and a good proportion of us are under increasing financial pressure.

Simply put, things are really bad and may very well get worse. But lashing out at each other won't solve anything. It will just increase the amount of unpleasantness we all have to deal with.

ASF is one of, perhaps the, most civilised places online so let's all keep it that way. Anger won't help any of us out of this mess.

We don't have any control over the spread of COVID-19 (apart from isolating ourselves and our families from those that might have it), nor do we have any control over the economic peril that is facing us, but we do have control over how we treat others and conduct ourselves in public spaces, including ASF.

Let's all do our best to maintain a respectful and civil atmosphere here. This is one place we can all come at any time of day or night, even in the midst of all this strife, and find some fellowship and a good friendly chat. Let's not spoil that.

 

[Smurf1976]

Thinking about all this, another aspect I wonder about is the impact on society more broadly and what that means?

I make that comment prompted by what a friend said to me on the phone a short time ago. In short we concluded that there's going to be plenty of children who for practical purposes have been abruptly shoved into the adult world in the past few days. All of a sudden the parents don't have jobs, everything's shut or cancelled, there's widespread fear and so on. It's an incredibly abrupt change.

This is now far worse than the GFC or any recession in living memory in terms of impact on most individuals and that's without mentioning the medical side.

 

[jbocker]

Just throwing a few thoughts out of my mind wrt implications post coronavirus, ok I am passing time while in a pseudo lock down. Or should that be throwing a few thoughts while out of my mind...

The recovery of the market will be a long slow one. Many boomers will have very little resource to re-engage the market and will re-evaluate what is really important, be happy to settle back to a less $ dependent lifestyle and learn to appreciate what health and 'simple living' pleasures can give. Resigned to contentment!
I don't know what damage to the big funds are likely to end up being. The market is for the next generations who have yet to figure out the market and there would be caution for many and some ballsy investment made by others. It is a given, History will sort of repeat itself on different range of opportunities.
The longer the virus has control the more likely the following.
I would think the whole landscape will change significantly. Countries will 'adjust' their accepted levels of income so that they can provide their own resources, manufacturing and services. People will pay the price that is required to have this, or at least Govts will. Govt will take back control of what have been psuedo govt/privatised entities. A larger public service, with greater help for fledgling business. Big companies will take back some of what was shifted offshore and employ the locals again, and the almighty shareholder will look more favourably to this rather than their flukey share price and dividends. More will be done from home wrt education and work. We will prepare better for next biological onslaught (understanding that the onslaught could likely be worse). Global climate will become a far greater accepted focus. Environmental sciences and farming will have greater better considered interfaces. Innovation will cause new industries to start up business we haven't thought of yet. Cellular meat will be grown on robots.
Gotta mention House prices; will drift downwards and settle down as govt erode a lot of its investment 'perks' over time.

13 days to go.

 

[Smurf1976]

With manufacturing etc I think it's pretty much a given.

Consider the UK or USA where all sorts of companies have stopped making whatever they normally make and are now making things needed for the virus war. Even Rolls Royce are into it according to media reports.

If you've got big factories and workshops then it's a given that as part of that you've got people who are good at problem solving and adapting things to work in a practical sense. Nobody's going to complain that the RR built ventilators are the wrong colour, right?

Australia's risks in that regard have been massively laid bare for all to see, indeed the country's lack of manufacturing capability is one factor that will drag the whole thing out at huge economic cost.

On the climate change issue though - I reckon it'll be fixed but it'll be fixed quietly. On with the job, it will be addressed, but the term won't be used in politics or the media much at all. It'll just be one of those unsaid assumption sort of things that gets done. Bit like nobody argues whether we should save human lives, we just silently embed that into everything else but it's not a subject of debate itself.

Just my thoughts, I could be wrong etc.

 

[ducati916]

The post virus economy will likely be different in that companies will:

(a) re-examine the 'just-in-time' supply chain;
(b) hold greater inventory;
(c) office based work, what can be done from home (reduce office rental costs);
(d) re. employment, more contract/casual employees;
(e) reduce share buy backs, increase liquid assets held on Balance Sheet;
(f) greater use of credit revolvers;
(g) increased contractual language re. acts of god etc.;
(h) revised insurance requirements;
(i) tighter control over collection of receivables;
(j) larger companies will look to extend Accounts Payable time
(k) moving supply/manufacture back onshore, which will impact margins;
(l) China will lose significant overseas manufacturing supply.

Probably loads more.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Just not so sure about global warming blamed on co2 story
This crisis will see human emissions reduced yet whatever global warming is detected continue and co2 increasing with no human cause
If there is one thing good out of this crisis,
it will prove the causality of co2 increasing due to global warming and not the opposite..
we can change again models etc, but at least our government will know, and so will anyone willing to look

 

[basilio]

This is exactly why I'm not interested in playing the blame game.

Plus 10. Thanks Joe .
I have been dismayed with the efforts to paint the Chinese or the US or some other dark force as deliberate architects of the CORVID 19 crisis. Our concerns right now are dealing with it the most constructive way possible. That has to be a largely co-operative process.

On top of that we have to socially, economically and personally survive what is going to be the biggest collective challenge most of us have ever faced. (Can't be many WW veterans left can there ? ) Creating shadowy enemies we can slag off at is, in my mind, a corrosive addition to the mix. Well worth leaving out IMV.

 

[SirRumpole]

Once we get rid of this virus (if we do) I wonder what the chances are of something similar coming along and we'll have to do it all again.

This means a forensic effort to find the source and a public calling out of of responsibilties to eliminate conditions for such viruses arising, even if it causes offense to some.

 

[basilio]

Just not so sure about global warming blamed on co2 story
This crisis will see human emissions reduced yet whatever global warming is detected continue and co2 increasing with no human cause
If there is one thing good out of this crisis,

Q Frog please re think or understand.
Your assertion is just completely and utterly wrong.
Yes current direct human emissions will be drastically reduced.
However global warming is the ongoing consequences of all the excess Greenhouse gases we have pumped into the atmosphere.
The full effect of these continues to rise and compound. For example we are now seeing huge amounts of methane release from the Arctic as the ground warms

Whats is more likely, unfortunately , is that global warming will increase as result of the current collapse in industrial activity.
One of the offsets to global warming from our use of fossils fuels has been the smoke produced by cars, factories. Much of this is sulpher dioxide SO2. This part of the pollution (not the invisible CO2) directly reduces warming temporarily. Basically dims the sun.

Climate scientists have always noted that if/when we reduce industrial pollution the immediate short term result will be this increase in warming.

Sad isn't it ? We still have to deal with an even bigger more intractable problem.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/sci...ing-now-revealed-in-different-lights-1.632074

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The post virus economy will likely be different in that companies will:

(a) re-examine the 'just-in-time' supply chain;
(b) hold greater inventory;
(c) office based work, what can be done from home (reduce office rental costs);
(d) re. employment, more contract/casual employees;
(e) reduce share buy backs, increase liquid assets held on Balance Sheet;
(f) greater use of credit revolvers;
(g) increased contractual language re. acts of god etc.;
(h) revised insurance requirements;
(i) tighter control over collection of receivables;
(j) larger companies will look to extend Accounts Payable time
(k) moving supply/manufacture back onshore, which will impact margins;
(l) China will lose significant overseas manufacturing supply.

Probably loads more.

probity will last only for a while. Sadly. Until the complacency returns.