Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[jbocker]

Remind them when they get crook not to come to my hospital in the city

Been in touch with two groups, they are staying put. Hopefully none of us need to be in your hospital, I assume you are working there @Humid and NOT a patient!

 

[Humid]

Been in touch with two groups, they are staying put. Hopefully none of us need to be in your hospital, I assume you are working there @Humid and NOT a patient!

I think you misunderstood
I’ve worked fifo for years and often been the brunt of locals and their towns
I usually tell them then don’t come to my town when their crook
Winds them up

 

[jbocker]

Sorry folks but I must pose VERY ugly questions I truly hope we don't get this situation.
OK Caronavirus hospitalisations gets to a much greater serious level in Australia and medical staff have to decide who gets the treatment.
1. One person is 85 the other is 65. The elder person is privately covered the younger is not. Who gets the equipment if both have a relatively healthy track record all their life?
2. One person is 85 the other is 65. Both have the same health cover. Elder has a good health track record the younger not quite so good. Who gets the treatment. Vice Versa.?
PLEASE do not respond answer these questions BUT TAKE THE TIME TO THINK what is it YOU can do from this minute on, to help not get to this situation.

If we don't some poor people may will need to make these decisions and could be YOUR spouse partner sibling grandparent child.

Apologies if this has already had discussion but keep asking that question of people in your family and friends.

 

[satanoperca]

I would sincerely hope China is donating them.

I prefer we test them first for effectiveness and also do not in themselves contain another virus.

 

[satanoperca]

"According to official statistics, China has defeated the coronavirus. Over the last five days, health authorities have reported only one new locally transmitted case of Covid-19 – a patient in Guangdong province infected by someone travelling from abroad. In Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak and the country’s worst-hit area, officials on Monday reported a fifth day without new cases"

THIS DOES NOT PASS THE PUB TEST.

And is extremely worrying in itself.

 

[IFocus]

Sorry folks but I must pose VERY ugly questions I truly hope we don't get this situation.
OK Caronavirus hospitalisations gets to a much greater serious level in Australia and medical staff have to decide who gets the treatment.
1. One person is 85 the other is 65. The elder person is privately covered the younger is not. Who gets the equipment if both have a relatively healthy track record all their life?
2. One person is 85 the other is 65. Both have the same health cover. Elder has a good health track record the younger not quite so good. Who gets the treatment. Vice Versa.?
PLEASE do not respond answer these questions BUT TAKE THE TIME TO THINK what is it YOU can do from this minute on, to help not get to this situation.

If we don't some poor people may will need to make these decisions and could be YOUR spouse partner sibling grandparent child.

Apologies if this has already had discussion but keep asking that question of people in your family and friends.

I think actually its time to have the conversation to be honest and there will be opinions at each end of the spectrum.

I guess in the end medical staff will make that decision or there simply wont be another bed in the ICU for the next patient regardless of age.

I note there has been some building anger towards boomers and suspect perhaps there isn't as much widespread sympathy or empathy among younger Australians (35 to 45 age group?)

Note this essential poll results

Guardian Essential poll: one-third say there has been an overreaction to coronavirus
The latest survey of 1,034 respondents suggests men, and voters aged under 34, are more likely to think there has been an overreaction than voters over 55, and women.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...there-has-been-an-overreaction-to-coronavirus

 

[basilio]

This scares the living xhit out me. The Government announces a total lockdown and effectively throwing hundreds of thousands of people out of work. They offer an immediate support package through Centrelink.

And somehow the Minister responsible can't add 2 and 2 and realise there will be a tidal wave of inquiries at Centrelink and that the systems have to be able to cope. It also sheds light on his seeming lack of awareness of the overall limits on Centrelink website and, I have to say, his personal staff who somehow didn't make it clear what was going to happen on Monday morning.

I just can't believe the incompetence . I suppose the upside is his honesty in acknowedging his incompetence.

Government urging people to go home as lines form around Centrelink offices, minister Stuart Robert admits not anticipating demand
Government Services Minister Stuart Robert conceded he had failed to appreciate the scale of demand that would be placed on Centrelink's website.

"My bad, not realising the sheer scale of the decision on Sunday night by the national leaders," he said.
"That literally saw hundreds and hundreds of thousands, maybe a million people, unemployed overnight."
People are lining up outside Centrelink seeking to access expanded welfare payments, including a $550 fortnightly coronavirus supplement payment.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...rt-robert-not-anticipate-coronavirus/12080612

 

[IFocus]

As I posted before this is the critical cut off for ICU beds April 8th only 15 days away

New infection rate numbers are still vertical NZ has gone to total lock down Australia cannot to to far away

https://sites.google.com/view/aucovid-19outbreak

 

[sptrawler]

As I posted before this is the critical cut off for ICU beds April 8th only 15 days away

New infection rate numbers are still vertical NZ has gone to total lock down Australia cannot to to far away

https://sites.google.com/view/aucovid-19outbreak

I think you are spot on, one the exponential curve in NSW is really accelerating and two school holidays are close.
Must go to Aldi and get some long life skim milk.

 

[satanoperca]

So when you make changes to any system, you get all involved to discuss the possible weakpoint in the current system that need to be fixed before introducing changes.

Ie Minister to IT Head, we are about to see a x100 increase in visitors to the site, have you done any baseload testing to insure that are servers can handle it.
IT Head, yes we have, we can have a spike of x10 over that we will need to make some drastic changes in both server configs and hardware.
Minister x10 is good enough

 

[wayneL]

Economic implications... security is the boom business as far as I see it.

Just went into the bottlo in one the particularly quiet outer Western Brisbane suburbs to grab some beers for later on. Standing at the door was one of the most mountainous men I've seen for ages as a security guard.

It's a sight that I have seen quite a few times now in the last few days.

On another level that is absolutely alarming because, dammit, this thing has only just started.

 

[qldfrog]

I think you are spot on, one the exponential curve in NSW is really accelerating and two school holidays are close.
Must go to Aldi and get some long life skim milk.

good luck, is probably gone..was gone last week first the full cream then light then skim...
in the space of 3 weeks here in qld

 

[CBerg]

This chart covering Australia's unemployment rate for the whole of last century illustrates a few key points:



https://images.theconversation.com/...lib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip

First obvious point is that once the rate goes up, it takes a very long time to come back down. Went up with the 1929 crash, didn't come back down until WW2 was underway.

One could argue that we still haven't recovered from the 1973 Oil Embargo either. It never came back down to what had been considered normal for the previous 30+ years.

Or for a less extreme example, consider the last two recessions. Both ended up close to a decade long event in terms of resultant unemployment indeed it was straight out of one and into the next.

I have trouble believing that we'll see a quick rebound for that reason, history shows otherwise. A quick drop to some extent as things re-open sure but it's very unlikely that we'll see everyone back to business as usual straight away. People without jobs don't go on expensive holidays and so on.

I'm not sure if you can count post WW2 as the normal. Almost complete destruction of much of Europe & lots of other destruction elsewhere. Not just markets gone belly up but whole towns/regions even countries gone for all intents and purposes. That takes up a lot of time & resources to rebuild from which I think explains most of that time period in terms of unemployment.

I heard a theory and at a glance it makes sense at a high level BUT I haven't thought about it much either. It's about how capital is so cheap compared to labour. If they want to make labour cheaper than capital they need to raise interest rates, significantly. It does not bode well if that caught on because Australia as a whole is highly leveraged but there could be interesting accounting tricks you could play that even the scales a bit: tax interest, make employee expenses on the P&L count for double. Interesting thought experiment anyway.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

we're on Stage 1 of progressive social distancing, which will trend into isolation/ lockdowns

The authorities are working on the details of Stage 2

UK is at 4.

 

[jbocker]

I note there has been some building anger towards boomers and suspect perhaps there isn't as much widespread sympathy or empathy among younger Australians (35 to 45 age group?)

Might be if it is there mum or dad, who hasn't done their will yet.

 

[basilio]

So when you make changes to any system, you get all involved to discuss the possible weakpoint in the current system that need to be fixed before introducing changes.

Ie Minister to IT Head, we are about to see a x100 increase in visitors to the site, have you done any baseload testing to insure that are servers can handle it.
IT Head, yes we have, we can have a spike of x10 over that we will need to make some drastic changes in both server configs and hardware.
Minister x10 is good enough

In theory yes. In this case in practice NO. There was no indication from the Ministers statement that any upgrades of any sort had been made to the My Gov system to handle the anticipated extra load.

Apparently it has a limit of 55,000 clients at any one stage before it falls over.

 

[qldfrog]

I think actually its time to have the conversation to be honest and there will be opinions at each end of the spectrum.

I guess in the end medical staff will make that decision or there simply wont be another bed in the ICU for the next patient regardless of age.

I note there has been some building anger towards boomers and suspect perhaps there isn't as much widespread sympathy or empathy among younger Australians (35 to 45 age group?)

Note this essential poll results

Guardian Essential poll: one-third say there has been an overreaction to coronavirus
The latest survey of 1,034 respondents suggests men, and voters aged under 34, are more likely to think there has been an overreaction than voters over 55, and women.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...there-has-been-an-overreaction-to-coronavirus

actually in both italy and France where they are having to do the decision, an ethic medical committee has made a recommendation, which I am sure the nedics will appreciate as it remove some of the pressure on their mind conscience;
https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...ts-un-tri-pourrait-se-faire_6033829_3232.html
but the media do not reveal the points used for the triage
From memory if you are very old or are seniler, have cancer or other grave illness, good luck; the aim becomes to only treat people who have a reasonable chance of making it...which means condemning to death some who had some chances..Not easy

an interesting article here..please note there is no economic side there: rich poor private insurance or not
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...e-coronavirus-strains-hospitals/#.XnllVXJS-Uk

 

[satanoperca]

Why are we not seeing any reporting on the origin of this virus?

With all the resources and technology in the world, the focus is on shut down, so why do we not know yet where is came from - which animal.

 

[basilio]

From memory if you are very old or are seniler, have cancer or other grave illness, good luck; the aim becomes to only treat people who have a reasonable chance of making it...which means condemning to death some who had some chances..Not easy

And that is or should be the case with all medical treatment. Good medicine doesn't attempt to "take heroic efforts to save life at all costs."

Again having said that my brother who was a doctor told me of relatives of people in nursing homes demanding intervention for their demented or senile parents. Just no respect for allowing life to end naturally.

 

[basilio]

Cross party co-operation in dealing with the COVID19 crisis. Excellent..

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Coronavirus pandemic unites Labor and Coalition to give Government $40 billion fund 'to spend as required'
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-24/coronavirus-billions-given-to-government-stimulus/12084546