Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[sptrawler]

Maybe you should stop reading the "more hysterical analysts" then ?
Infowars perhaps ? Alan Jones ? The Protocols of Zion ?

We have a really difficult situation to address in terms of limiting the spread of this virus, keeping people and business solvent in the meantime, keeping peoples mental and social health intact while in isolation and somehow preserving the economic infrastructure of our societies. (Plus a score more...)

IMV nasty conspiracy theories come under the heading of 5th columnists.

Is that your post Bas? I mean people are just recovering from the hysteria about climate change, now this can it get any worse.

 

[basilio]

Is that your post Bas? I mean people are just recovering from the hysteria about climate change, now this can it get any worse.

Not sure what you mean SP

 

[Knobby22]

Is that your post Bas? I mean people are just recovering from the hysteria about climate change, now this can it get any worse.

Yea, it's all climate hysteria. So was this virus until it became a bit too real.
I predict at least 2 million officially dead from the virus in the USA. Still not testing poor people so actually think it will be closer to 3 mil but they won't be counted.

Joke from an American friend (an Aussie living over there):
Q. How does a poor person in the USA get tested for coronavirus?
A. Cough on a rich person and wait for their test results.

 

[sptrawler]

Not sure what you mean SP ?

Well we are worried about people's mental health and stress levels, I was alluding to the fact people have been getting stressed by the media for the past 3 years or so, now we have the virus hysteria those who are fragile from the CC issue must be nearly suicidal now.
I'm not saying it isn't important to show concern, but a 24/7 ear bashing year in year out doesn't help people keep a balanced mental state.
Just my opinion

 

[wayneL]

Maybe you should stop reading the "more hysterical analysts" then ?
Infowars perhaps ? Alan Jones ? The Protocols of Zion ?

We have a really difficult situation to address in terms of limiting the spread of this virus, keeping people and business solvent in the meantime, keeping peoples mental and social health intact while in isolation and somehow preserving the economic infrastructure of our societies. (Plus a score more...)

IMV nasty conspiracy theories come under the heading of 5th columnists.

These are Wall St guys bas, so FU.

 

[SirRumpole]

How about the Federal and State governments start employing people again instead of replacing them with consultants who don't know what they are doing?

A lot of public servants could work from home, IT people and managers for instance who don't have contact with the public.

Kill two birds with one stone, keep people employed and out of offices.

 

[basilio]

Well we are worried about people's mental health and stress levels, I was alluding to the fact people have been getting stressed by the media for the past 3 years or so, now we have the virus hysteria those who are fragile from the CC issue must be nearly suicidal now.
I'm not saying it isn't important to show concern, but a 24/7 ear bashing year in year out doesn't help people keep a balanced mental state.
Just my opinion

Totally fair point. I think we are talking at cross purposes here. I was saying that following the poisonous rants from noted conspiracy theorists was not a great idea. It will just build suspicion and hate which will lead to serious xhit.

I think keeping peoples mental health and morale together in a constructive way over the next 6 months will be as important as money and food. Certainly that's where I'm going.

 

[Knobby22]

Totally fair point. I think we are talking at cross purposes here. I was saying that following the poisonous rants from noted conspiracy theorists was not a great idea. It will just build suspicion and hate which will lead to serious xhit.

I think keeping peoples mental health and morale together in a constructive way over the next 6 months will be as important as money and food. Certainly that's where I'm going.

I don't think people are worried enough. Too many not taking this seriously.

 

[sptrawler]

Totally fair point. I think we are talking at cross purposes here. I was saying that following the poisonous rants from noted conspiracy theorists was not a great idea. It will just build suspicion and hate which will lead to serious xhit.

I think keeping peoples mental health and morale together in a constructive way over the next 6 months will be as important as money and food. Certainly that's where I'm going.

I think that is great and it should be emulated by the press, the constant never ending negative reporting on every facet of life, isn't good for the mental health of the community in general.
As in our climate change thread, I attempt to show people we are doing something, as opposed to constantly saying it isn't enough. Maybe it isn't, but people get very depressed, when they are constantly told it is pointless and we are doomed.
Just my opinion.

 

[wayneL]

Totally fair point. I think we are talking at cross purposes here. I was saying that following the poisonous rants from noted conspiracy theorists was not a great idea. It will just build suspicion and hate which will lead to serious xhit.

I think keeping peoples mental health and morale together in a constructive way over the next 6 months will be as important as money and food. Certainly that's where I'm going.

you do realise how absolutely asinine it was of you to assume that I was referring to the likes of Alex Jones. You sir are a bloody idiot, try getting some facts first.

As for me I will be watching how the economic system may change in the coming months. I advice others to do the same, just watch and be smart.

 

[basilio]

These are Wall St guys bas, so FU.

Really ? OK maybe they are on Wall street. I still don't want to hear their theories.

For arguments sake websites like Zero Hedge (a financial blog you have quoted in the past) already contribute enough questionable stuff to the mess. Business Insider had a sharp look at their practices.

In any case if one looks at Wall Steet guys we see some pretty sharp sociopaths who look out solely for Number One and drive over anyone in their path.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...d-coronavirus-misinformation-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

 

[basilio]

As for me I will be watching how the economic system may change in the coming months. I advice others to do the same, just watch and be smart.

Agree. The economic system will absolutely change in the next 6 months.
Hell we already have the US, Australia and Europe underpining a basic living age for people to survive a **** down of business as usual.

Everyone can already see that this mammoth increase of Government printed credit to keep countries going will require some tricky economic changes.

We are effectively in a wartime situation. Governments have taken emergency powers to deal with this crisis. We want to make sure it works and we don't end up in deeper xhit than before.

 

[The Triangle]

The government cannot handle floods or fires - something that happens nearly every year. They certainly will not handle this correctly. Australia is run by people who have to ask 'What would the Americans do'.

I'm sure what they can handle is their own finances - and I suspect its only a matter of time until we see evidence that elected officials are timing these announcements in conjunction with their share-trading. In 3 months this will all blow over and there will be the fallout from who was profiteering from all this. We will learn nothing from this and nothing will change (except a few more ASX companies will be sold to private equity/china).

 

[basilio]

Excellent overview of current process for assisting people thrown out of work.
Well worth a read.

What is the Coronavirus Supplement from Centrelink, am I eligible and when does it start?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...-payment-what-is-it-and-how-to-apply/12080326

 

[jbocker]

While I am in fear of what we are going through currently, I also have a nagging concern for the aftermath.
I truly hope that people in Australia will focus on Australians first, and not rush off buying overseas while stepping past businesses lying bleeding in the streets. It will probably cost a lot more but it will help our wounded people get back on their feet. This will take quite some time and take quite some effort. I hope caronavirus doesn't kill our traditional spirit.

 

[SirRumpole]

How about the Federal and State governments start employing people again instead of replacing them with consultants who don't know what they are doing?

A lot of public servants could work from home, IT people and managers for instance who don't have contact with the public.

Kill two birds with one stone, keep people employed and out of offices.

I just heard the PM say that the Fed gov will put on an extra 5,000 public servants to deal with the issue.

That's a good start.

All the pollies appear to be trying to do the right thing. Not perfect but probably the best they can do in the circumstances.

 

[Smurf1976]

While I am in fear of what we are going through currently, I also have a nagging concern for the aftermath.

The long term implications will be far reaching and will among other things change politics quite drastically.

I won't be at all surprised if we see industry protection make a comeback. Australia won't move first but if the USA does it, and I think they will, then fair chance the whole world follows.

How many unemployed people are we going to end up with in Australia? Even a normal recession would give us circa 10% and this is far worse than that.

Once we get to the next election, the collective group of the unemployed, underemployed, struggling businesses and others who are sympathetic to those in that situation will in practice be the ones choosing the government.

Add in the reality that government will have huge debt and ongoing deficits, with pressure to keep unemployment benefits permanently higher than in the past, and it creates a situation where the voters and politicians both need Australians put back to work and can't really afford to do otherwise.

 

[Smurf1976]

Posting this here since it's intended as comment on the overall economic situation rather than the underlying industry.

Electricity consumption across Qld, NSW, ACT, Vic, SA, Tas combined over the past week was 3297 GWh, that being the lowest weekly figure over the past 12 months.

Previous week was 3722 GWh and week prior to that was 3989 GWh.

For perspective, the second lowest week over the past year was 3526 GWh for the week ending 28 April 2019. This week had two public holidays (Easter Monday and ANZAC day) and schools etc shut hence the low consumption.

So consumption over this past week is running at lower levels than that normally seen at Christmas or Easter.

Whilst weather does influence electricity consumption due to use of heating and cooling systems, I think it's no coincidence that the past week was the lowest of the past 12 months and that the past two weeks have both seen significant declines. Given how pervasive electricity is throughout the economy, this would seem to be evidence of economic contraction.

On a state by state basis comparing the past week with the previous week (with temperature data for the capital city in brackets)

NSW = down 10.5% (temperature range 15-35 versus 13-25 previous week)
Qld = down 13.5% (17-32, previous week 18-28)
Vic = down 10.1% (9-30, previous week 10-29)
SA = down 7.0% (11-33, previous week 12-32)
Tas = down 17.3% (10-27, previous week 8-25)

Basis = these figures include all electricity consumed from the main grid in each state regardless of the means of production. So that is the output of all power stations of any type, wind and solar farms, and the estimated production of small (household) etc solar systems (it's estimated by scaling up from a measured sample).

Not included is WA, NT, small towns in the middle of nowhere with their own generators and the separate power system serving Mt Isa and surrounding areas in Queensland. So they include almost all consumption in NSW (incl ACT), Vic, SA and Tas and the majority of it in Qld.

Electricity data source is the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and weather data is from the BOM.

 

[basilio]

So do we see a silver lining in terms of less pressure on electricity grids and less risk of them falling over ?
On the other hand I'm sure this is not good news for the power companies..

Thanks for the update Smurf.

 

[frugal.rock]

@Smurf1976
Mate, you are a legend!
Oil and poo figures, now electricity figures.
What can you tell me about Zinc?
And what other datasets are you all over like an echidna on an ants nest?
Cheers.
F.Rock