Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[sptrawler]

I don't know for sure but my thinking is that:

Workers - simple supply and demand economics for the majority who aren't some sort of specialist. Same supply, lower demand as work dries up = better hope you're happy being paid the minimum Award wage and don't expect that to be raised anytime soon. With business now under serious pressure to find cost savings, and plenty of people out of work, if your job isn't something with a very limited number of people who can do it then your bargaining position has been greatly eroded.

Most businesses - fewer people with money who can afford to buy whatever you're selling and who under the circumstances still want your products or services. That goes for everything from beauty salons to oil drilling contractors. Some customers will be frightened to go in your salon, others no longer have the money, and only the most lucrative oil field would even be considered for development with prices as they are. As a business you're now competing for a diminished volume of work.

Landlords especially commercial - if your tenants can't pay the rent well then they're not going to be paying it. Whether or not you kick them out is another matter but if they don't have the money anymore well then they don't have the money. Finding another tenant who does have the money won't be anywhere as easy as it would previously have been.

Passive investors in anything - majority will have lost capital and/or future income.

So my basic thought is that most things will, once this is all over, have a price that's different to the price they'd have had if it hadn't happened. There's going to be plenty of spare capacity among most workers and business for quite some time.

As I said regarding the back packer jobs, when push comes to shove, a job becomes a job.
Ive done some crappy jobs in my time, not because I wanted to, mainly because I had to to pay the bills and stop going backwards.

 

[MrChow]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...ronavirus-peak-uk-when-what-next-how-prepare/

Have a look at their map graphic where the most infected countries are all at similar latitude / temperature.

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...ronavirus-peak-uk-when-what-next-how-prepare/

Have a look at their map graphic where the most infected countries are all at similar latitude / temperature.

Mr Chow, are you American? No offense but you offer views which are not usual within Australia . I mostly disagree but respect these

 

[MrChow]

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

 

[basilio]

Check out this Podcast with Dr Norman Swan.
We have 1000 confirmed CORVIOD 19 cases in Australia. The real figure is around 10,000
Take home message is direct.

"If we do nothing more now in Australia, by April 7 our intensive care units will be overwhelmed - that's the prediction. We've got 14 days before we turn into Italy" -- Dr Norman Swan Pls read that again. Not to sound alarmist but can everyone share the **** out of this podcast. And make sure to tune in to Norman Swan's podcast for daily updates on Covid19 in Australia: https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast

 

[sptrawler]

It looks as though things are warming up, the assistance package the Government is rolling out, sounds fairly comprehensive.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/cor...daily-jump-in-death-toll-20200321-p54cl4.html:
From the article:
$189 billion stimulus package, to be rolled out.

 

[CBerg]

It looks as though things are warming up, the assistance package the Government is rolling out, sounds fairly comprehensive.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/cor...daily-jump-in-death-toll-20200321-p54cl4.html:
From the article:
$189 billion stimulus package, to be rolled out.

I like they're waiving the wait period & asset test if you lose your job.

 

[satanoperca]

So we add 45% of the govnuts debt, everything going to be great, happy days ahead, property to the moon

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Five things to help stop the spread of coronavirus
The World Health Organization is advising people to follow five simple steps to help prevent the spread of COVID-19:

1. Wash your hands

2. Cough/sneeze into your elbow

3. Don't touch your face

4. Stay more than 1m away from others

5. Stay home if you feel sick

gg

 

[satanoperca]

My sister in law is a doctor and the truth is that the older you get the less they will spend. 80 year olds are not given $40,000 operations.

Five things to help stop the spread of coronavirus
The World Health Organization is advising people to follow five simple steps to help prevent the spread of COVID-19:

1. Wash your hands

2. Cough/sneeze into your elbow

3. Don't touch your face

4. Stay more than 1m away from others

5. Stay home if you feel sick

gg

So having lots of sex is still okay, thank-you

 

[Value Collector]

It’s starting to look like Italy and Iran May have peaked.

That is the case, we may see the “Active cases” growth begin to stagnate soon.

There is currently about 115,000 active cases at the moment (not counting people who have already recovered).

it’s still super early to make predictions, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the active cases number stagnate before it hits 200K.

(total cases is already over 200k but that includes the dead and recovered, I am just talking about active cases Eg those currently infected)

mad it turns out Italy hadn’t peaked, and we now look very likely to smash through the 200k active cases, I thought/hoped the global spread would have stagnated before we got to that number.

Who knows where this thing is going to peak, but hopefully daily new cases plateau soon.

 

[basilio]

A hundred years on, will there be another Great Depression?
Government indecision amid the coronavirus crisis has fuelled fears of a long recession – unless there is a huge fiscal response

Such was the scale of the global market crash last week in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, the spectre of the 1929 Wall Street rout and the ensuing Great Depression of the 1930s has been raised. Comparisons no longer seem fanciful.

The failure of the US and the UK to swing into action with a wide range of mitigation measures – despite the lessons of Italy’s slow response to the spread of Covid-19 – has heightened concerns that a sustained, epochal downturn lies in wait.

And a depression would mean an almost exact repeat of the same period one hundred years ago, when a deeply divided society and soaring stock markets during the 1920s gave way to a tortuously slow return to economic health during the 1930s in the wake of the 1929 stock market crash.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-great-depression-coronavirus-fiscal-response

 

[qldfrog]

mad it turns out Italy hadn’t peaked, and we now look very likely to smash through the 200k active cases, I thought/hoped the global spread would have stagnated before we got to that number.

Who knows where this thing is going to peak, but hopefully daily new cases plateau soon.

In term of tally, France for an example i know is only testing cases who are basically in hospital already, hard to compare with South Korea or Germany who did wide testing si you will see heavy mortality rate in France vs Germany for example
I still believe Germany adopted the St Korea handling whereas France ..as Australia followed the laisser faire attitude , acting one week behind..too late and heading to Italian style catastrophe.
We still have the time if acting now to limit some damages

 

[SirRumpole]

And a depression would mean an almost exact repeat of the same period one hundred years ago, when a deeply divided society and soaring stock markets during the 1920s gave way to a tortuously slow return to economic health during the 1930s in the wake of the 1929 stock market crash.

And was only ended by the worst war in human history...

 

[sptrawler]

In term of tally, France for an example i know is only testing cases who are basically in hospital already, hard to compare with South Korea or Germany who did wide testing si you will see heavy mortality rate in France vs Germany for example
I still believe Germany adopted the St Korea handling whereas France ..as Australia followed the laisser faire attitude , acting one week behind..too late and heading to Italian style catastrophe.
We still have the time if acting now to limit some damages

I don't know about Germany, but South Korea did a huge amount of testing, because they actually make the test chemicals, you will probably find out Germany has laboratories that can make the test chemicals also.
We probably shut all ours down years ago, and import our test chemicals from China and South Korea.
Just my thoughts.

 

[Kauri]

NSW and VIC, ( I would assume other states will follow), announce shutdown of all non essential services, saying supermarkets, pharmacies, fuel stations are exempt. Does that mean the local bottle shop , hardware, office supplies, department stores etc are shutting down? If so, a massive hit to the retail and commercial property exposed sectors.

 

[sptrawler]

NSW and VIC, ( I would assume other states will follow), announce shutdown of all non essential services, saying supermarkets, pharmacies, fuel stations are exempt. Does that mean the local bottle shop , hardware, office supplies, department stores etc are shutting down? If so, a massive hit to the retail and commercial property exposed sectors.

Oh no not the Bottle Shop, I've bought two cartons of beer, 6 wine casks, two dozen bottles of Shiraz, 4 liters of Jack Daniels, 6 cartons of coke, and a box of panadol.
I should be o.k untill next weekend.

 

[frugal.rock]

I don't know if it's been said...?(there's so many posts that one can't keep up.)
I had thoughts along the lines that the virus seems to be a higher risk for the higher aged in society. Haven't seen death rates stats based on age groups personally though.
However, for the aged people who contract the virus and regrettably pass on because of it, there's a transfer of their wealth to family or whoever is the beneficiary of their estate.
This is an ugly positive proposition of course, but it is reality.
Governments worldwide have been expressing for years now about the financial weight an ever aging population puts on the financial system as we are generally living longer than before, thus the increase in minimum retirement ages.

I wonder if this thought train has gone through certain politicians heads?... as some don't or didn't seem to care until the general populus was enraged and started speaking out.


F.Rock

 

[Kauri]

Oh no not the Bottle Shop, I've bought two cartons of beer, 6 wine casks, two dozen bottles of Shiraz, 4 liters of Jack Daniels, 6 cartons of coke, and a box of panadol.
I should be o.k untill next weekend.

Just been down the Sands pub, exchanged some spare toilet rolls for a few cartons of red.

 

[Smurf1976]

I had thoughts along the lines that the virus seems to be a higher risk for the higher aged in society. Haven't seen death rates stats based on age groups personally though.

I don't have a link but I've seen a chart which seemed to be credible data.

Basically the death rate starts going up once you're age 40 and goes up dramatically past age 70.