Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

Time will tell, be interesting if any Country is will to come out with evidence that it was engineered.

I hope not for the simple reason that regardless of how it actually happened, the ramifications of any major country being convinced that it was an engineered virus would be extremely serious for everyone on earth.

 

[Smurf1976]

They don't let them bulk buy toilet paper now

Saw the sewer unblocking truck down the road yesterday.

That'll be a growth area of employment if people are flushing paper towels and so on as they block the pipes apparently.

There's also the more serious aspect that having sewage spills in the streets sounds like a damn good way to spread the virus.

 

[satanoperca]

I hope not for the simple reason that regardless of how it actually happened, the ramifications of any major country being convinced that it was an engineered virus would be extremely serious for everyone on earth.

While I agree, it would be serious, it might prevent a much greater virus gaining control with a much higher mortality rate.

I think many would be sh---it scared if they new what some countries and playing with in regards to bio weapons.

Nuclear weapons are bad, but at least focused, bio weapons are terrifying.

 

[againsthegrain]

Well, that was only one claim, and I'm happy to discuss the evidence. It's very neat, any critical thinker can see it. I'm a little reluctant to openly discuss it because it will cause panic, and I don't think people should panic, but it is what it is.

If you read what genetics are publishing and understand genetics, it's very clear, and they also indicate subtly that they know (by saying things like 'it's either x or y', where any geneticist knows x is impossible and y can not be natural). I'm a trained, qualified geneticist so that side is easier for me to see than most, but if you want to read the peer-reviewed articles out from multiple continents, you'll probably be able to see it.

Or, the simple fact that in literally every other outbreak since the advent of genetics technology, we can identify the source. Ebola from monkeys, SARS went from bat to civet to human. MERS from camels. Bird flu and swine flu identified quickly enough they were named after them. Today, genetic technology is so far advanced compared to when we were first able to do this, like the difference between the first computers and what we have today. The reference databases of virus genomes are also huge, as opposed to non existent. We were able to identify natural sources before genome sequencing was even possible, then it took years, these days it takes barely any time at all. From a sample first being obtained by lab techs to the genetic sequence of this virus being entirely completed and released was just days. Now, despite this radically advanced technology and it being used orders of magnitude more intensely than on any virus outbreak in history... nope, nothing to see here, just go back to thinking about toilet paper.

To a decent virologist or geneticist (I'm a geneticist but not a virologist, though any decent virologist knows a lot about genetics) the peer reviewed articles tell you what this is. It's basically a modified SARS virus (based in the 2002 outbreak virus) with HIV genetics spliced in. The journal articles that I've seen stop short of pointing out that this can only plausibly be done in a laboratory, not in nature, and if you like I can explain various evidence for this being the case, but no virologist could doubt the orign. A short piece of that evidence is to say that for this to occur naturally, an extremely unlikely (like, flipping heads a million times in a row type unlikely) event would need to occur in a person infected with both SARS and HIV. If you can get over those astronomical odds, you still require a person with HIV being infected with SARS, which would require an active SARS outbreak. There wasn't an active SARS outbreak before this event. Patient zero had the spliced version. So you have an astronomically unlikely event which could only occur in a scenario we know didn't exist anyway.

Alternatively, we do know that bioweapons and medical research actually do exist, in many labs around the world. No one disputes this. They both involve artificial genetic manipulation of virus genetics. No one disputes this. Viruses do escape from labs quite often due to human error. No one disputes this. For it to be an accidental release, all it would take is one lab tech making a mistake or equipment failure. No one disputes that human error and equipment failure are both real things. This is entirely plausible. For it to be a deliberate release, that requires a much bigger story. Wars do start and the world has been on the edge for a long time, we've spent decades saying it's overdue, so while I'm not making the claim, that wouldn't surprise me either.

So, if you still want to disagree, please at least agree to disagree (or if you have logical explanations as to why I'm wrong, by all means present it, but the picture of it being artificial is so clear it's silly to dispute unless you're just being dishonest for the purpose of not causing panic).

Sdajii I am genuine interested and curious because I have no idea in this field how do you counter all those articles which say it is natural?

for example this https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm

just a first google result, is it because nobody wants to accuse anybody officially? I am genuinly just curious and interested in evidence from both sides

 

[CanOz]

How bad will this get? Read this....
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

[Rsthree]

Following up on this, Son in laws workmate has proven NEGATIVE. Good news for her and all her acquaintances but we are not relaxing our diligence. I made comment about shop-hopping madness and decided to not do shopping for a week or so, and that will be done by our more resilient kids (on their insistence). Rule: what is not available is not to be chased. Grandkids minding has been removed as the parents are doing work share at home and office.

Thank you to the well wishes and I truly hope you have similar 'luck' with any future encounter.

We are Aussies. Proven fighters. Community conscious. Lets prove it again to ourselves that we haven't changed and get on top of this in far less time than even the most optimistic experts suggest.

A good friend of mine just down the road tested positive. But her 2 young kids, baby sitter and husband were all cleared negative. The good news is that her symptoms were just like a very mild flu, day 11 and recovering well. She said the biggest impact was the fear, uncertainty and doubt of what was ahead.

 

[MrChow]

Whether Coles had toilet paper?

 

[MrChow]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/...-likely-to-peak-in-late-april-to-mid-may.html

His timeline for U.S:
- Infections peak late April (within hospital capacity levels) and then drop in May
- Disappears in July and August
- Outbreaks again during September, October, November (Autumn months) but better prepared to contain
- Also sceptical about any Malaria or other drugs being used without proven clinical outcomes

 

[qldfrog]

Sdajii I am genuine interested and curious because I have no idea in this field how do you counter all those articles which say it is natural?

for example this https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm

just a first google result, is it because nobody wants to accuse anybody officially? I am genuinly just curious and interested in evidence from both sides

Just google sars hiv hiv sequence, this should lead you to a research paper.indian release nearly 2 months ago
To get these unique hiv and sars sequence in the corona virus would require a bat monkey with aids
Basically a proof it is engineered
I posted the link a while back, when it first appears, this info is suppressed as potentially,.i understand that, damaging.
The Chinese gov is recently trying to turn the table and blaming the US.. surprise...
But of course the only lab they have dealing with these viruses is located in Wuhan , L4 lab.
All info available on the web, and from before the crisis..no fake news..hard facts.. unpleasant

 

[Dona Ferentes]

From @bigdog daily post

Investors are jumpy due to uncertainty about the size and duration of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak and the spreading wave of business shutdowns meant to help contain it.

Markets are likely in for more turblence next week as investors get a better look at the economic fallout from businesses closures and layoffs. Goldman Sachs Group analysts project that this week's U.S. unemployment aid applications increased more than 2 million

I think the US is behind in it's attempts to limit the virus spread and a ticking time bomb. Until it peaks there, we're not out of the woods. The economic implications remain dire; the market response is likely to still be negative

 

[basilio]

This has certainly exploded. Unfortunately it is no surprise if one understands how exponential growth operates when a disease is spreading. However when towns and countries test, isolate and ensure socoal distancing the spread of the virus can be stopped.

I'm an ER doctor. Please take coronavirus seriously
Most people don’t understand exponential growth. If they did, they’d be far more frightened
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/er-doctor-coronavirus-exponential-growth#img-1

 

[basilio]

South Korea take a very aggressive proactive stance hen they realised the potential of the corona virus

Coronavirus outbreak
South Korea took rapid, intrusive measures against Covid-19 – and they worked
The country acted fast when the virus began to spread. Strict quarantine measures and testing have helped to curb it
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/20/south-korea-rapid-intrusive-measures-covid-19

 

[basilio]

The 3000 person town of Vo in Norther Italy which suffered the first Corona Virus death now has no corona virus infections.
How did they achieve that ?
Scientists say mass tests in Italian town have halted Covid-19 there
A study in Vò, which saw Italy’s first death, points to the danger of asymptomatic carriers

• Coronavirus – latest updates
• See all our coronavirus coverage

Lorenzo Tondo in Palermo


@lorenzo_tondo
Wed 18 Mar 2020 16.30 EDT Last modified on Thu 19 Mar 2020 11.32 EDT

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Volunteers line up to undergo testing in Vò, Italy, where the country’s first coronavirus death occurred. Photograph: Andrea Casalis/AP
The small town of Vò, in northern Italy, where the first coronavirus death occurred in the country, has become a case study that demonstrates how scientists might neutralise the spread of Covid-19.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ss-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19

 

[basilio]

Another story on the plus side.

Tesla, Ford and GM offer to build ventilators amid shortages
Car companies willing to make ventilators amid shortage
1 / 1 photos

Car companies in the US and UK are offering up their manufacturing plants for the production of ventilators, in a bid to assist with growing shortages imposed by the coronavirus crisis.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla...strap-masthead&utm_source=acm&utm_medium=link

 

[basilio]

Clearest most practical analysis of the options we face to deal with with crisis I have seen.

The case for shutting down almost everything, and restarting when coronavirus is gone
John Daley
Here are the three endgames Australia could pursue, and why we should choose the most radical

Nobody likes talking about the COVID-19 endgame, but we need to choose one. The appropriate interventions – public health, government spending, and freedom of movement – all depend on the endgame we choose.

The differences between endgames amount to tens of thousands of avoidable deaths, hundreds of thousands of avoidable hospital admissions, and deep and systemic impacts on Australia’s economy and society.

Many discussions are underestimating the likely political reactions when death counts rise.

They are also underestimating the economic and social consequences of an open-ended epidemic that will have enormous real-world impacts on small and medium businesses, as well as many not-for-profit organisations in every sector of the economy and society. We are not facing up to the social consequences if many close, and credit markets collapse.

We see three possible endgames.

None are attractive, but one is better than the others
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...thing-and-restarting-when-coronavirus-is-gone

 

[basilio]

New York has taken the shutdown approach.

Here's what a 90-day 'stay home' order means for New Yorkers
Governor Andrew Cuomo has ordered all non-essential businesses to shut down and for people to remain indoors
Kenya Evelyn in Washington

@LiveFromKenya
Fri 20 Mar 2020 17.23 EDT Last modified on Fri 20 Mar 2020 18.16 EDT

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A woman wears personal protective equipment (PPE) as she rides the air-train at John F Kennedy international airport in New York City, on Friday. Photograph: Brendan McDermid/Reuters
Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York has ordered the shutdown of all non-essential businesses in the state, as the number of confirmed coronavirus cases surged above 7,000. Except for essential services, all New Yorkers are now ordered to stay indoors for up to 90 days from 8pm Sunday evening.

Cuomo called the new measures the “ultimate step” to curb the outbreak.

“These provisions will be enforced. These are not helpful hints. This is not if you really want to be a great citizen. These are legal provisions,” he said at a briefing on Friday morning in Albany, the state’s capital. “We need everyone to be safe; otherwise, no one can be safe.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/20/new-york-90-day-stay-home-order-what-it-means

 

[basilio]

Where we are now. How have we got there.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/n...ap-how-covid-19-is-spreading-across-the-world

 

[basilio]

David_Monty Comment from The Guardian after the article on Casze for shutting down
41m ago

2 3

Australia and New Zealand should be aiming to eliminate the virus (end game 3) and that could be achieved with a short, sharp shutdown followed by a similar period of aggressive case finding. The first phase of this process does not require massive testing as the shutdown of all but truly essential services would end transmission chains, if we had community support for it. This shutdown would need to be long enough for existing infection chains in households to be broken. At present this option is not being considered seriously. Look at experiences from Hokkaido, the Italian villagge that remains free and many cities in China. This approach has worked elsewhere. Lets start with the simple statement that Australia's goal is to eliminate the virus ASAP and stop it from coming back in. Then design and implement a system that is capable of achieving these goals. But do it now before it is too late. As an animal disease manager I would not be allowed to get away with producing a plan that produces the sort of economic damage that will be inflicted by flattening the curve. Why are we letting our medical authorities only promote this one option when the damage caused by this approach will be extreme? No customers at Chadstone today - try that for 6 months and see what is left of our economy! We need to get rid of this virus now. It can be done.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...thing-and-restarting-when-coronavirus-is-gone

 

[qldfrog]

Clearest most practical analysis of the options we face to deal with with crisis I have seen.

The case for shutting down almost everything, and restarting when coronavirus is gone
John Daley
Here are the three endgames Australia could pursue, and why we should choose the most radical

Nobody likes talking about the COVID-19 endgame, but we need to choose one. The appropriate interventions – public health, government spending, and freedom of movement – all depend on the endgame we choose.

The differences between endgames amount to tens of thousands of avoidable deaths, hundreds of thousands of avoidable hospital admissions, and deep and systemic impacts on Australia’s economy and society.

Many discussions are underestimating the likely political reactions when death counts rise.

They are also underestimating the economic and social consequences of an open-ended epidemic that will have enormous real-world impacts on small and medium businesses, as well as many not-for-profit organisations in every sector of the economy and society. We are not facing up to the social consequences if many close, and credit markets collapse.

We see three possible endgames.

None are attractive, but one is better than the others
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...thing-and-restarting-when-coronavirus-is-gone

Same as
https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...o/news-story/fefb6eb8a17608202d704b40bb4e2dff
But not from the guardian
We have solutions.unpleasant costly

For many, after the denial we saw from January till basically early March, just a flu, buy the dip, there is now anger brewing
Anger for being wrong, blind to the facts and some is understandable
Now people are going to lose their jobs, their homes, their savings and they need to blame someone
For many, at no fault ...
Not a good time to say i told you so ....
Worse, soon we will start losing loved ones

Why is my true blue aussie dad left dying when that: fill the blank
Druggie, welfare recipient, migrant, never paid tax or fought for our flag and get the ICU bed
We will soon see people demanding action...

 

[satanoperca]

While this is hardly the most appropriate time to ask a question, I was wondering :
What is the value of a life? Yes monetary value.

Before all the normal ACF commentators burn me in flames, is there a value as this thread is about economic impact, I will provide some parameters:
Age <10 years
Age <20 years
Age <40 year
Age < 70 years
Age 70-85 years
Age 85> and older.

I will provide some further ideas for discussion.
If we have limited medical resources and this turns nuclear and we have the following balance sheet.
Cost of saving someone in ICU is $1
We have $10 in the bank
There are :
10 People >85 requiring ICU
5 50-70 years olds requiring ICU
and 6 people under the age of 30 requiring ICU

What do you do?

Does a persons life become worth less as they get older, in regards to using resources to keep them alive.

Now again before anyone goes nuclear over this question, I have had more than $500K AUD spent on me medically to keep my body alive before the age of 30. I am now 49. If I had to choose between resources being spent on me or my 14 year old son, I would rather day and save him as his life is worth more.