Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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sptrawler said:
Nothing wrong with rabbit Bas, in the early 1960's that is all we had, mum knew 100 different ways to cook a rabbit.
Click to expand...

Plenty of them around here, if you like I can send you a few. :)

Talking to some oldies who lives through the war they were a popular food source then.
 
SirRumpole said:
At least 6 months the PM said.
Click to expand...

Hopefully it is not that long before planes start flying again, I have holidays planned, not to mention Sydney Airport shares, I can't see us getting the next dividend if the international terminal is shutdown for that long.
 
rederob said:
You make so many claims without evidence!
Viruses mutate, like the theory of evolution propounds.
You start with a copypaste of a conspiracy theory and then close with one of your own.
Little wonder Australians are panic buying when this is the level of thinking that goes on.
Click to expand...

Well, that was only one claim, and I'm happy to discuss the evidence. It's very neat, any critical thinker can see it. I'm a little reluctant to openly discuss it because it will cause panic, and I don't think people should panic, but it is what it is.

If you read what genetics are publishing and understand genetics, it's very clear, and they also indicate subtly that they know (by saying things like 'it's either x or y', where any geneticist knows x is impossible and y can not be natural). I'm a trained, qualified geneticist so that side is easier for me to see than most, but if you want to read the peer-reviewed articles out from multiple continents, you'll probably be able to see it.

Or, the simple fact that in literally every other outbreak since the advent of genetics technology, we can identify the source. Ebola from monkeys, SARS went from bat to civet to human. MERS from camels. Bird flu and swine flu identified quickly enough they were named after them. Today, genetic technology is so far advanced compared to when we were first able to do this, like the difference between the first computers and what we have today. The reference databases of virus genomes are also huge, as opposed to non existent. We were able to identify natural sources before genome sequencing was even possible, then it took years, these days it takes barely any time at all. From a sample first being obtained by lab techs to the genetic sequence of this virus being entirely completed and released was just days. Now, despite this radically advanced technology and it being used orders of magnitude more intensely than on any virus outbreak in history... nope, nothing to see here, just go back to thinking about toilet paper.

To a decent virologist or geneticist (I'm a geneticist but not a virologist, though any decent virologist knows a lot about genetics) the peer reviewed articles tell you what this is. It's basically a modified SARS virus (based in the 2002 outbreak virus) with HIV genetics spliced in. The journal articles that I've seen stop short of pointing out that this can only plausibly be done in a laboratory, not in nature, and if you like I can explain various evidence for this being the case, but no virologist could doubt the orign. A short piece of that evidence is to say that for this to occur naturally, an extremely unlikely (like, flipping heads a million times in a row type unlikely) event would need to occur in a person infected with both SARS and HIV. If you can get over those astronomical odds, you still require a person with HIV being infected with SARS, which would require an active SARS outbreak. There wasn't an active SARS outbreak before this event. Patient zero had the spliced version. So you have an astronomically unlikely event which could only occur in a scenario we know didn't exist anyway.

Alternatively, we do know that bioweapons and medical research actually do exist, in many labs around the world. No one disputes this. They both involve artificial genetic manipulation of virus genetics. No one disputes this. Viruses do escape from labs quite often due to human error. No one disputes this. For it to be an accidental release, all it would take is one lab tech making a mistake or equipment failure. No one disputes that human error and equipment failure are both real things. This is entirely plausible. For it to be a deliberate release, that requires a much bigger story. Wars do start and the world has been on the edge for a long time, we've spent decades saying it's overdue, so while I'm not making the claim, that wouldn't surprise me either.

So, if you still want to disagree, please at least agree to disagree (or if you have logical explanations as to why I'm wrong, by all means present it, but the picture of it being artificial is so clear it's silly to dispute unless you're just being dishonest for the purpose of not causing panic).
 
jbocker said:
I have just been informed a workmate of my son in law may have the virus having returned from overseas a while before the shutdown. Consequently son in law had been working with this person all week and is now got flue like symptoms. And I have seen him in the interim period, when none of us were suspicious. If the person proves positive and son in law and then myself, then it goes to show the spread is as easy as that. AND I have been very reasonably cautious because I tick nearly all high risk boxes..
I have now locked down till I hear of the results of the initial person.

So I have been thinking where have I gone since meeting, and making a list, and what frightens me is I have been to MANY shops and SEVERAL times (BECAUSE of THE stupid panic buying) trying to get essentials. NORMALLY I am once a week shopper and go only to two shops. Now like others we shop a multitude of times, absolutely perfect for a spread.

So have fingers crossed and shopping list uncrossed for me.

Take care. Stay Cool, I remain confident.
Click to expand...
Following up on this, Son in laws workmate has proven NEGATIVE. Good news for her and all her acquaintances but we are not relaxing our diligence. I made comment about shop-hopping madness and decided to not do shopping for a week or so, and that will be done by our more resilient kids (on their insistence). Rule: what is not available is not to be chased. Grandkids minding has been removed as the parents are doing work share at home and office.

Thank you to the well wishes and I truly hope you have similar 'luck' with any future encounter.

We are Aussies. Proven fighters. Community conscious. Lets prove it again to ourselves that we haven't changed and get on top of this in far less time than even the most optimistic experts suggest.
 
Sdajii said:
Well, that was only one claim, and I'm happy to discuss the evidence. It's very neat, any critical thinker can see it. I'm a little reluctant to openly discuss it because it will cause panic, and I don't think people should panic, but it is what it is.

If you read what genetics are publishing and understand genetics, it's very clear, and they also indicate subtly that they know (by saying things like 'it's either x or y', where any geneticist knows x is impossible and y can not be natural). I'm a trained, qualified geneticist so that side is easier for me to see than most, but if you want to read the peer-reviewed articles out from multiple continents, you'll probably be able to see it.

Or, the simple fact that in literally every other outbreak since the advent of genetics technology, we can identify the source. Ebola from monkeys, SARS went from bat to civet to human. MERS from camels. Bird flu and swine flu identified quickly enough they were named after them. Today, genetic technology is so far advanced compared to when we were first able to do this, like the difference between the first computers and what we have today. The reference databases of virus genomes are also huge, as opposed to non existent. We were able to identify natural sources before genome sequencing was even possible, then it took years, these days it takes barely any time at all. From a sample first being obtained by lab techs to the genetic sequence of this virus being entirely completed and released was just days. Now, despite this radically advanced technology and it being used orders of magnitude more intensely than on any virus outbreak in history... nope, nothing to see here, just go back to thinking about toilet paper.

To a decent virologist or geneticist (I'm a geneticist but not a virologist, though any decent virologist knows a lot about genetics) the peer reviewed articles tell you what this is. It's basically a modified SARS virus (based in the 2002 outbreak virus) with HIV genetics spliced in. The journal articles that I've seen stop short of pointing out that this can only plausibly be done in a laboratory, not in nature, and if you like I can explain various evidence for this being the case, but no virologist could doubt the orign. A short piece of that evidence is to say that for this to occur naturally, an extremely unlikely (like, flipping heads a million times in a row type unlikely) event would need to occur in a person infected with both SARS and HIV. If you can get over those astronomical odds, you still require a person with HIV being infected with SARS, which would require an active SARS outbreak. There wasn't an active SARS outbreak before this event. Patient zero had the spliced version. So you have an astronomically unlikely event which could only occur in a scenario we know didn't exist anyway.

Alternatively, we do know that bioweapons and medical research actually do exist, in many labs around the world. No one disputes this. They both involve artificial genetic manipulation of virus genetics. No one disputes this. Viruses do escape from labs quite often due to human error. No one disputes this. For it to be an accidental release, all it would take is one lab tech making a mistake or equipment failure. No one disputes that human error and equipment failure are both real things. This is entirely plausible. For it to be a deliberate release, that requires a much bigger story. Wars do start and the world has been on the edge for a long time, we've spent decades saying it's overdue, so while I'm not making the claim, that wouldn't surprise me either.

So, if you still want to disagree, please at least agree to disagree (or if you have logical explanations as to why I'm wrong, by all means present it, but the picture of it being artificial is so clear it's silly to dispute unless you're just being dishonest for the purpose of not causing panic).
Click to expand...

I agree with this, it is man made, escaped from a lab, that is why the Chinese Govnuts went into massive lock down, they know how the virus works.

Time will tell, be interesting if any Country is will to come out with evidence that it was engineered.

The chinese are know saying a US soldier cased the infection in Wuan, this sounds like a great cover up.
 
Sdajii said:
Well, that was only one claim, and I'm happy to discuss the evidence. It's very neat, any critical thinker can see it. I'm a little reluctant to openly discuss it because it will cause panic, and I don't think people should panic, but it is what it is.
Click to expand...
I suspect I read far more science than you.
Here's an end to your made up conspiracy claim.
 
Sdajii said:
Well, that was only one claim, and I'm happy to discuss the evidence. It's very neat, any critical thinker can see it. I'm a little reluctant to openly discuss it because it will cause panic, and I don't think people should panic, but it is what it is.

If you read what genetics are publishing and understand genetics, it's very clear, and they also indicate subtly that they know (by saying things like 'it's either x or y', where any geneticist knows x is impossible and y can not be natural). I'm a trained, qualified geneticist so that side is easier for me to see than most, but if you want to read the peer-reviewed articles out from multiple continents, you'll probably be able to see it.

Or, the simple fact that in literally every other outbreak since the advent of genetics technology, we can identify the source. Ebola from monkeys, SARS went from bat to civet to human. MERS from camels. Bird flu and swine flu identified quickly enough they were named after them. Today, genetic technology is so far advanced compared to when we were first able to do this, like the difference between the first computers and what we have today. The reference databases of virus genomes are also huge, as opposed to non existent. We were able to identify natural sources before genome sequencing was even possible, then it took years, these days it takes barely any time at all. From a sample first being obtained by lab techs to the genetic sequence of this virus being entirely completed and released was just days. Now, despite this radically advanced technology and it being used orders of magnitude more intensely than on any virus outbreak in history... nope, nothing to see here, just go back to thinking about toilet paper.

To a decent virologist or geneticist (I'm a geneticist but not a virologist, though any decent virologist knows a lot about genetics) the peer reviewed articles tell you what this is. It's basically a modified SARS virus (based in the 2002 outbreak virus) with HIV genetics spliced in. The journal articles that I've seen stop short of pointing out that this can only plausibly be done in a laboratory, not in nature, and if you like I can explain various evidence for this being the case, but no virologist could doubt the orign. A short piece of that evidence is to say that for this to occur naturally, an extremely unlikely (like, flipping heads a million times in a row type unlikely) event would need to occur in a person infected with both SARS and HIV. If you can get over those astronomical odds, you still require a person with HIV being infected with SARS, which would require an active SARS outbreak. There wasn't an active SARS outbreak before this event. Patient zero had the spliced version. So you have an astronomically unlikely event which could only occur in a scenario we know didn't exist anyway.

Alternatively, we do know that bioweapons and medical research actually do exist, in many labs around the world. No one disputes this. They both involve artificial genetic manipulation of virus genetics. No one disputes this. Viruses do escape from labs quite often due to human error. No one disputes this. For it to be an accidental release, all it would take is one lab tech making a mistake or equipment failure. No one disputes that human error and equipment failure are both real things. This is entirely plausible. For it to be a deliberate release, that requires a much bigger story. Wars do start and the world has been on the edge for a long time, we've spent decades saying it's overdue, so while I'm not making the claim, that wouldn't surprise me either.

So, if you still want to disagree, please at least agree to disagree (or if you have logical explanations as to why I'm wrong, by all means present it, but the picture of it being artificial is so clear it's silly to dispute unless you're just being dishonest for the purpose of not causing panic).
Click to expand...
My theory as well, i posted the link to the article pointing the hiv and sars sequence.
But i do not believe it was intentional
 
qldfrog said:
My theory as well, i posted the link to the article pointing the hiv and sars sequence.
But i do not believe it was intentional
Click to expand...
And 9n the scale of things, does not really matter much at this stage except i expect higher levels of mutations so hard to develop vaccines
 
moXJO said:
I wonder if you could get dibs on the toilet paper?
Click to expand...

I know someone who works at Coles in the back office, they told me Sydney Coles employees can go to the fulfilment centre for online orders in Alexandria and buy stuff there, it's like a giant warehouse logistics hub for all the online orders.

They don't let them bulk buy toilet paper now, but you can at least get some, further up the supply chain than the public right now if you're willing to go to Alexandria, which I guess is easier if you live near the city than if you're a Coles employee in Blacktown.
 

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