Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[satanoperca]

You basically think this is a survival of the fittest.

YES I DO. Nothing has changed in 1000's of years and nothing will change in the future.

This is the law of nature, stop trying to change it, humans are a virus on this planet.

Basilio, I have survived 3 major illness, 2 of which were virus, both put me a in coma. I have a depressed immune system, I should be concerned with this situation more than most, but I survived 3 times as I was strong, I might be not this time, oh well, the strong survive, death is just part of living, embrace it, it is going to happen to us all at some stage, it cannot be avoided.

 

[basilio]

I appreciate your personal experience. Surviving what you have through sheer will power, because in the end that is the strongest force, must reinforce a survival of the fittest belief. And it is a mighty achievement

I can also recognise a Survival of the Fittest ethos. Interestingly enough the current COVID 19 virus touches that cord. It seems to strike at the oldest and sickest. So why not let it rip ?

Basically because I don't want to see umpteen thousands of people die just because we as a society aren't willing to try and protect them from infection. The fact that at least 3 countries have managed to control the spread of the virus by quarantine and isolation tells me this is possible.

Lets do it.

Yes we will all die one day and we all have to die to make way for new life. But lets not cash our chips in so quickly please .

 

[Smurf1976]

Basically because I don't want to see umpteen thousands of people die just because we as a society aren't willing to try and protect them from infection. The fact that at least 3 countries have managed to control the spread of the virus by quarantine and isolation tells me this is possible.

Lets do it.

We also need to stop it happening again.

Politically incorrect to say it but let's stamp out this virus and also stamp out these dodgy food markets which caused the problem in the first place.

For all the things that everyone from the military to environmentalists has been worrying about all these years, from weapons of mass destruction through to shopping bags, reality is that none have caused as much harm to humanity as these markets. They must go, the whole lot, no excuses, no warnings, no tolerance.

To be clear, that's not just a China thing as the same poor practices occur elsewhere too. It cannot be allowed to continue anywhere.

I'm normally a bit more friendly but this has stuffed the whole world basically such that drastic action to prevent a recurrence seems more than justified.

 

[qldfrog]

We also need to stop it happening again.

Politically incorrect to say it but let's stamp out this virus and also stamp out these dodgy food markets which caused the problem in the first place.

For all the things that everyone from the military to environmentalists has been worrying about all these years, from weapons of mass destruction through to shopping bags, reality is that none have caused as much harm to humanity as these markets. They must go, the whole lot, no excuses, no warnings, no tolerance.

To be clear, that's not just a China thing as the same poor practices occur elsewhere too. It cannot be allowed to continue anywhere.

I'm normally a bit more friendly but this has stuffed the whole world basically such that drastic action to prevent a recurrence seems more than justified.

If i had a possibility to place a bet with access to real not forged info,
I would bet 80 to 90 pc that the virus had nothing to do with this market and is straight out of the lab
Wuhan does not sell bats..
Bats then snake then pangolin....
Our virus has sequence of sars..aka bat.. and hiv..not bat not snake not pangolin
Not pc, and not really helpful to put blame...but this is a Frankenstein

After, should these market be allowed...in China or the so-called bush meat market in Africa
Not ..for buying slice of protected species i agree...
But let's not blame the bats for the virus..

 

[qldfrog]

Away from the bats.,
France intensifies lockdown, EU closing borders..EU has been extremely absent so far in what should have been a great opportunity and best pan national position to act

Europeans will not forget that and EU is dead in my opinion.final nail on coffin
Of interest as it will probably come here within a month
France lockdown has rates tax water and electricity bills frozen
1500 euro to businesses including entrepreneurs shop owners tradies etc

 

[basilio]

So far our food supplies have been guaranteed. Maybe that can change ?

Harvests could be lost if coronavirus travel restrictions lead to labour shortages on Australian farms
Fruit and vegetable farmers face looming labour deficit in the absence of backpackers and other foreign workers they rely on for picking
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-lead-to-labour-shortages-on-australian-farms

 

[satanoperca]

"So far our food supplies have been guaranteed. Maybe that can change ?"

That could really throw a spanner in the works.

 

[tech/a]

1500 euro to businesses.
What a joke.
That will cover 2 people for a week!

Doesn't go far enough to keep these guys in business.

(1) Moratorium on Rent
(2) On Business loans from Over drafts to Plant loans.
(3) Perhaps a suspension of GST (Businesses) type taxes or even
personal taxes (Employees) for a month review monthly.
(4) Payroll type taxes suspended.
(5) Mortgages in Moratorium.
(6) 70% Food vouchers rather than money for those on benefits
or become on benefits.
(7) Moratorium on Utilities (In place).

Immediately dont debate it!

This isn't a permanent thing but needs Immediate stimulation and
genuine practical help in the immediate short term.
These things will / could help.

Everyone needs to share the pain from Employers to staff to GOVT!

 

[CBerg]

1500 euro to businesses.
What a joke.
That will cover 2 people for a week!

Doesn't go far enough to keep these guys in business.

(1) Moratorium on Rent
(2) On Business loans from Over drafts to Plant loans.
(3) Perhaps a suspension of GST (Businesses) type taxes or even
personal taxes (Employees) for a month review monthly.
(4) Payroll type taxes suspended.
(5) Mortgages in Moratorium.
(6) 70% Food vouchers rather than money for those on benefits
or become on benefits.
(7) Moratorium on Utilities (In place).

Immediately dont debate it!

This isn't a permanent thing but needs Immediate stimulation and
genuine practical help in the immediate short term.
These things will / could help.

Everyone needs to share the pain from Employers to staff to GOVT!

Until the government back stops EVERYONE in this situation, it's going to deteriorate over the coming months. A lot of people have terrible personal balance sheets, let alone their businesses. A cancellation of GST & PAYG might help but it doesn't solve the problem that 99% of businesses need income not relief on liabilities, that helps but it's only one part of the equation.

I think something equivalent of a universal basic income to keep people's bills, rent/mortgage paid & food in their belly. For everyone not just existing pensioners.

The dumb thing is I know a lot of small business owners trying to maximize the 50% rebate of PAYG. I just shake my head at the stupidity of spending large amounts of capital in this environment. It's not a normal operating environment so I don't think normal rules apply.

 

[tech/a]

Until the government back stops EVERYONE in this situation, it's going to deteriorate over the coming months. A lot of people have terrible personal balance sheets, let alone their businesses. A cancellation of GST & PAYG might help but it doesn't solve the problem that 99% of businesses need income not relief on liabilities, that helps but it's only one part of the equation.

I think something equivalent of a universal basic income to keep people's bills, rent/mortgage paid & food in their belly. For everyone not just existing pensioners.

The dumb thing is I know a lot of small business owners trying to maximize the 50% rebate of PAYG. I just shake my head at the stupidity of spending large amounts of capital in this environment. It's not a normal operating environment so I don't think normal rules apply.

While this is not normal there are normal common sense rules that can apply.
How much toilet paper,food,essentials do you need? How much money?

What can I do to help everyone else.
Where can I lead by example--start with friends, colleagues and family.

Many businesses rely on small margin and high turn over like a Restaurant or coffee shop store ---
Deli--lose traffic and you lose your income stream.
So the hospitality industry will be hit hard but take away and home delivery is likely to boom.

Businesses need to be at least profitable to survive.
The first thing to do is Shrink
The second is to cut costs--be smart dont look for hand outs.
Help your employees be smart.
Restore confidence in them -- find ways together. The cream will
rise to the top.

Don' t expect the Govt to solve all problems.
Or be the knight in shining Armour rescuing us all!

They cant and wont. But YOU can look after YOUR lot.

Setting and distributing a basic income is fraught with endless issues
Who gets it
How do you prove you qualify.
Where does the money come from
Is there a means test.
Policing fraud.


Could you dip into super to survive in this extreme case for
a defined period and a defined amount.
There is an end and it will come BEFORE ----" THE END ".
Wont be easy but we will come out of this strong and wiser.

I personally like the way leaders are leading.
I might not 100% agree but they are picking up on the good
ideas and running fast.
Some maybe in hind site over the top but better to be too
conservative in this situation.
Heroes will be bare handed in front of a militia.

 

[CBerg]

While this is not normal there are normal common sense rules that can apply.
How much toilet paper,food,essentials do you need? How much money?

What can I do to help everyone else.
Where can I lead by example--start with friends, colleagues and family.

Many businesses rely on small margin and high turn over like a Restaurant or coffee shop store ---
Deli--lose traffic and you lose your income stream.
So the hospitality industry will be hit hard but take away and home delivery is likely to boom.

Businesses need to be at least profitable to survive.
The first thing to do is Shrink
The second is to cut costs--be smart dont look for hand outs.
Help your employees be smart.
Restore confidence in them -- find ways together. The cream will
rise to the top.

Don' t expect the Govt to solve all problems.
Or be the knight in shining Armour rescuing us all!

They cant and wont. But YOU can look after YOUR lot.

Setting and distributing a basic income is fraught with endless issues
Who gets it
How do you prove you qualify.
Where does the money come from
Is there a means test.
Policing fraud.


Could you dip into super to survive in this extreme case for
a defined period and a defined amount.
There is an end and it will come BEFORE ----" THE END ".
Wont be easy but we will come out of this strong and wiser.

I personally like the way leaders are leading.
I might not 100% agree but they are picking up on the good
ideas and running fast.
Some maybe in hind site over the top but better to be too
conservative in this situation.
Heroes will be bare handed in front of a militia.

I do agree with everything you say, I just think there's a lot of turmoil for a temporary event which I think would be alleviated by some sort of guarantee you're not going to go broke. It would let people get on with it instead of worrying. It definitely shouldn't last forever though as pointed out.

Our family business has been able to work remotely for a while now, we're now doing that as of today and giving a little bit extra this pay to help with any extra bills like extra internet/electricity. We think we'll survive but it's not going to be pretty for the next 6 months.

 

[tech/a]

I do agree with everything you say, I just think there's a lot of turmoil for a temporary event which I think would be alleviated by some sort of guarantee you're not going to go broke. It would let people get on with it instead of worrying. It definitely shouldn't last forever though as pointed out.

Our family business has been able to work remotely for a while now, we're now doing that as of today and giving a little bit extra this pay to help with any extra bills like extra internet/electricity. We think we'll survive but it's not going to be pretty for the next 6 months.

Unless you have substantial reserves as a business or Personally I dont know that you can "Guarantee"
that you or anyone else wont go broke. Guaranteeing an already UN profitable business is exactly what
you dont want to see.

You'll come out of this with so much knowledge you'll be glad you went through it.
My first was 1987 then early 90s recession then GFC now this.
I love the challenge no matter how hard it is. You grow you implement you do
what you have to do without hesitation.

 

[jbocker]

So far our food supplies have been guaranteed. Maybe that can change ?

Harvests could be lost if coronavirus travel restrictions lead to labour shortages on Australian farms
Fruit and vegetable farmers face looming labour deficit in the absence of backpackers and other foreign workers they rely on for picking
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-lead-to-labour-shortages-on-australian-farms

Foreign workers might be replaced by an aussie born labour force to some degree.
We might come out the end of all this and see an importance in having some of our own manufacturing industries and keeping some goodies for ourselves. Nice to see a crayfish in the shops again.

 

[tech/a]

Foreign workers might be replaced by an aussie born labour force to some degree.
We might come out the end of all this and see an importance in having some of our own manufacturing industries and keeping some goodies for ourselves. Nice to see a crayfish in the shops again.

Send all those without jobs in the hospitality industry and others up there!!!
I agree. Become more self sufficient. Help yourself people!

How about this as a headline.

Huge Employment opportunities with our farmers.

Which inspires?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

A New South Wales chemical manufacturer has suspended it's production of hand sanitiser due to international chemical shortages.

The chief executive of Nowchem on the NSW's south coast, John Lamont, says the factory was making 5,000 litres per day when the coronavirus outbreak started. He says the company will now have to wait until at least Easter to resume production.

"We're air freighting in product but even air freight to Europe where our product comes from is a couple of weeks away. "Because now Germany and everybody is shutting their borders and that's where everyone get their product from. So we're going to have to wait a couple of weeks until we can get back into full production."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...9-australia-latest-news-live-updates/12061250

 

[basilio]

Send all those without jobs in the hospitality industry and others up there!!!
I agree. Become more self sufficient. Help yourself people!

How about this as a headline.

Huge Employment opportunities with our farmers.

Which inspires?

It has merit doesn't it ? Problem is the pay is pathetic. The reason there are so many migrant/backpacker pickers is they are easier to exploit.

On another practical level picking jobs are short term. It just doesn't make sense to just leave a home and family or whatever in Melb/Sydney and go picking for 2-4 weeks.

Having said that I think we should try to set up a system that does work - and ensure people don't pick up or pass on the virus.

 

[basilio]

I do agree with everything you say, I just think there's a lot of turmoil for a temporary event which I think would be alleviated by some sort of guarantee you're not going to go broke. It would let people get on with it instead of worrying. It definitely shouldn't last forever though as pointed out.

Our family business has been able to work remotely for a while now, we're now doing that as of today and giving a little bit extra this pay to help with any extra bills like extra internet/electricity. We think we'll survive but it's not going to be pretty for the next 6 months.

I agree it is essential to somehow ensure people and businesses can survive this event. If it has to be a basic universal wage maybe that's what it is.

Rent, utility bills, house payments food essentials.

 

[jbocker]

A New South Wales chemical manufacturer has suspended it's production of hand sanitiser due to international chemical shortages.

The chief executive of Nowchem on the NSW's south coast, John Lamont, says the factory was making 5,000 litres per day when the coronavirus outbreak started. He says the company will now have to wait until at least Easter to resume production.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...9-australia-latest-news-live-updates/12061250

Cant we place more goodies in empty jumbos. Humans at one end loading, Humans at the other end off loading. Travel restrictions are applied to humans not products. Govt may be able to fund the flight.

 

[jbocker]

I agree it is essential to somehow ensure people and businesses can survive this event. If it has to be a basic universal wage maybe that's what it is.

I think this will prove to be part of the answer. We should be ashamed of ourselves if we end up with rotting fruit ploughed into the fields, large unemployment, and people sitting on their toilet rolls in cities with their hand out for govt $.
After all theres no footy to go to and watch and gives people a chance for some fresh air.

 

[Smurf1976]

Foreign workers might be replaced by an aussie born labour force to some degree.

If there's one outcome I'm reasonably certain of it's that we'll see a lot of nationalist sentiment arising from all this. Free trade will be all but dead in due course and we'll see some serious moves to boost and protect local industry emerge in most countries once it becomes apparent just how bad the economic fallout from this is going to be.

Democratically elected governments won't have a choice. They'll need to be seen to be doing something about the problems, which aren't going to be resolved quickly given the extent of impact, and cutting the ribbon on a new factory is going to gain a lot more political support than some free trade deal.

I could be wrong of course but I'm reasonably convinced we'll see a move in this direction given that it was already starting to occur in a limited way and that this crisis has exposed the serious problems with the current approach.

Australia can't make more hand sanitiser for the simple reason that we don't have the imported materials to make it and plastic bottles to put it in. Meanwhile in the UK Rolls Royce have said they're ready and willing to immediately switch their efforts to manufacturing medical equipment if government can give them the design or an existing one to reverse engineer. The contrast is stark and lays bare the problems with reliance on imports from a single overseas supplier. Change is inevitable in my view.