Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[sptrawler]

Where the problem arises is with being forced to spend much of your income on services purchased from the employer. That makes it worse than the dole for anyone with a house, either owned or already rented, or a family to support.

Outlaw that practice and the rest of the problems largely go away.

It is up to the Governments State and Federal, to ensure the awards are followed.
The thing I do know, if there is a real recession, any job is a good job.
I've worked through the 1982 recession, the 1987 crash, the 1990 recession we had to have, the tech wreck, the GFC and like I said any job, is a good job.

 

[Smurf1976]

It is up to the Governments State and Federal, to ensure the awards are followed.

I don't disagree but there's a few who'd be screaming extremely loudly about that one since a lot of the "backpacker" work isn't available to anyone else for one simple reason.

A condition of taking the job is spending much of your pay on the employer's accommodation services.

Hence it's worse than the dole for anyone with a family or who has a commitment, either owned or rented, to any existing house. It generates minimal cash with which to pay for anything - it just provides somewhere to sleep which has no value if you've already got a place.

It ought to be outlawed yes. Pay the workers with actual money that's theirs to choose how they spend.

 

[Smurf1976]

And so the collapse begins. This is the first trickle from what's going to become a full scale dam burst if the situation continues:

Australia’s biggest regional airline Rex has entered a trading halt and called on federal government support as it faces crippling financial losses due to the coronavirus crisis.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trav...g/news-story/50d1fb2b71faa19692225ecabd9eb37e

 

[So_Cynical]

Some in depth COVID info - Joe Rogan Podcast.
~

 

[Smurf1976]

Until the government back stops EVERYONE in this situation, it's going to deteriorate over the coming months.

Regardless of the detail, the problem I'm seeing is that government can't create real wealth in doing all this.

Hand everyone $1000 today and then take back $1000 tomorrow via higher taxes. Etc ($1000 is just a random figure). There's no real wealth they're able to hand out, it's just borrowed money.

Point being that whilst it might be the only option, nothing can change the reality that we've got a major shutdown with $ billions being lost. That's really lost, gone, and no getting around that reality that as a country pretty much everyone's going to end up poorer.

Just about everyone's expectations are going to be greatly lowered by the time all this is done is what I'm thinking.

 

[CBerg]

Regardless of the detail, the problem I'm seeing is that government can't create real wealth in doing all this.

Hand everyone $1000 today and then take back $1000 tomorrow via higher taxes. Etc ($1000 is just a random figure). There's no real wealth they're able to hand out, it's just borrowed money.

Point being that whilst it might be the only option, nothing can change the reality that we've got a major shutdown with $ billions being lost. That's really lost, gone, and no getting around that reality that as a country pretty much everyone's going to end up poorer.

Just about everyone's expectations are going to be greatly lowered by the time all this is done is what I'm thinking.

Yep I agree, the only reason I think government payments to everyone is that it lets people safely stop non-essential activity and not worry about going belly up.

A lot of people out there without an adequate emergency fund or will lose the only source of income for potentially a long time. I know I’d prefer people calm and able to think straight in this situation.

Personally, I see this as a catastrophe in the making for young and old. A lot of people are assuming things just go back to normal once this is all said and done but I just can’t fathom how that works if all bills, mortgages, leases etc aren’t just paused.

I cashed out my meagre amount of virgin velocity points last night for a few vouchers in iTunes. I’d bet Apple stays in business over velocity points once governments takes over. I figure they’ll prioritise staff over rewards, easy choice to make imo.

 

[againsthegrain]

Yep I agree, the only reason I think government payments to everyone is that it lets people safely stop non-essential activity and not worry about going belly up.

A lot of people out there without an adequate emergency fund or will lose the only source of income for potentially a long time. I know I’d prefer people calm and able to think straight in this situation.

Personally, I see this as a catastrophe in the making for young and old. A lot of people are assuming things just go back to normal once this is all said and done but I just can’t fathom how that works if all bills, mortgages, leases etc aren’t just paused.

I cashed out my meagre amount of virgin velocity points last night for a few vouchers in iTunes. I’d bet Apple stays in business over velocity points once governments takes over. I figure they’ll prioritise staff over rewards, easy choice to make imo.

I know the government is supposed to be positive and not panic people (they haven't been doing a good job) but when they say we will make a quick bounce in 6 months to 1 year I think its a joke

 

[tech/a]

I know the government is supposed to be positive and not panic people (they haven't been doing a good job) but when they say we will make a quick bounce in 6 months to 1 year I think its a joke

Don't know about that.
The Govt is not panicking but lots of PEOPLE are.
Irrational buying isn't going to protect them or their job
any better than someone who doesn't.

Vaccine = Bounce.

Even a semblance of normality with people being able to go about their lives without
fear of spreading a contagion will see a BIG Bounce!

Could very well happen in 6 mths or less.

 

[againsthegrain]

Don't know about that.
The Govt is not panicking but lots of PEOPLE are.
Irrational buying isn't going to protect them or their job
any better than someone who doesn't.

Vaccine = Bounce.

Even a semblance of normality with people being able to go about their lives without
fear of spreading a contagion will see a BIG Bounce!

Could very well happen in 6 mths or less.

How much of a bounce can you make when % of jobs lost and business close, 6 months is a long time and lots of damage to suddenly rebound. Just replying to the previous post how things won't be the same, can't bounce back to normal after this.

There is already 2 strains of the virus by the time they make a vaccine for both... we may have more

Also I am curious if smoking will go down now, big govt revenue there too

 

[tech/a]

How much of a bounce can you make when % of jobs lost and business close, 6 months is a long time and lots of damage to suddenly rebound. Just replying to the previous post how things won't be the same, can't bounce back to normal after this.

There is already 2 strains of the virus by the time they make a vaccine for both... we may have more

Also I am curious if smoking will go down now, big govt revenue there too

Social interaction will mean Immediate strong Bounces in many sectors.
From Aviation to Coffee shops.
Toilet paper sales will plummet.
Super markets will be vacant.

Im curious.
Do you have any suggestions that would help?

 

[againsthegrain]

Social interaction will mean Immediate strong Bounces in many sectors.
From Aviation to Coffee shops.
Toilet paper sales will plummet.
Super markets will be vacant.

Im curious.
Do you have any suggestions that would help?

No im not a expert or trying to be one

 

[basilio]

It is up to the Governments State and Federal, to ensure the awards are followed.

Except of course Liberal governments make an absolute point of knackering efforts to monitor or enforce awards. That is the main reason for business to support such governments .

 

[sptrawler]

Except of course Liberal governments make an absolute point of knackering efforts to monitor or enforce awards. That is the main reason for business to support such governments .

OMG

 

[sptrawler]

Latest from Canberra, do not travel, things must be warming up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...pdates-covid19-latest-news-anzac-day/12064922
From the article:
Scott Morrison's press conference, summarised:

• An unprecedented, indefinite level-four travel ban is in place for the entire world. The travel advice for all Australians wanting to go overseas is "Do Not Travel".
• There is a ban on non-essential indoor gatherings of 100 people or more. Australians are still advised to stay away from non-essential outdoor gatherings of 500 or more.
• Modeled on Singapore's approach, the official advice is that schools will remain open.
• There are new measures in place for visiting elderly relatives in aged care. In end-of-life situations, facilities will have the discretion to put very strict arrangements in place to enable family members to see relatives.
• Scott Morrison has urged hoarders to stop panic-buying, as grocery stores deal with empty shelves.
• The chief medical officer has said a shut down of the country is not recommended by the experts
• Social distancing recommendations remain in place, including advice not to hand shake or hug.

I don't know where the chief medical officer is getting his info from, the media has been calling for a complete shut down for days.
Then again, if he gets it wrong the media will crucify him, and if he gets it right they will say nothing, situation normal IMO

 

[tech/a]

Except of course Liberal governments make an absolute point of knackering efforts to monitor or enforce awards. That is the main reason for business to support such governments .

If we dont remove your arm you will die.
F*Ck you Leave my arm alone.

The upside is you no longer have to worry about your arm--your dead.
The downside for those hanging out for or unwilling to do their bit for
the survival of all if every called upon ----- is your STILL alive.

 

[Smurf1976]

Yep I agree, the only reason I think government payments to everyone is that it lets people safely stop non-essential activity and not worry about going belly up.

Agreed - I should have clarified that I'm not opposed to the concept, just saying that there seems no real way out of the overall situation overall.

At this point we're trying to put the plane on the ground and get everyone off without a fireball. That ground happens to be an open field in the middle of nowhere, it's not our intended destination or even any airport for that matter.

 

[Smurf1976]

There is a ban on non-essential indoor gatherings of 100 people or more.

I think the progressive ramping up is what's causing alarm and panic.

Less than a week ago there was no ban on gatherings and major events were still happening. Then it was a "recommended" maximum of 500, now it's a ban on more than 100. No doubt soon it'll be close to zero as in other countries.

Same at the shops, in about 15 days it has gone from "no problem" to "only toilet paper" to "toilet paper and a few other basics" to "quite a few more things" and this week alone we've already seen "we're reducing trading hours" and now "maximum purchase limit of 2 items per person on practically everything" and it's only Wednesday.

Anyone able to spot trends can see that things are very rapidly getting worse and that anyone saying "no need to panic", whilst perhaps rationally correct, has lost credibility at this point in that observed reality doesn't match what's being said.

There's also a disproportionate impact on the poor in all this. Whereas they might normally have bought the home brand product at Coles or Woolies for $5, that's been raided so now they've got to buy the brand name product and go to a small shop to get it at a price of $10 or more. Etc. The shops may not have directly increased pricing but the cost of purchasing the cheapest available products has hugely increased in practice and that's really going to hit the poor.

 

[basilio]

Excellent to see a proactive approach from police forces as they try to stay on top of the multiple challenges the COVID 19 virus is posing.

11:43
Police in Puyallup, Washington have asked criminals to stop committing crimes in light of the coronavirus epidemic.
The Puyallup Police Department posted on Facebook:

“Due to local cases of #Covid-19, PPD is asking all criminal activities and nefarious behavior to cease. We appreciate your anticipated cooperation in halting crime & thank all the criminals in advance. We will certainly let you know when you can resume your normal criminal behavior. Until then.... #washyourhands & #behaveyourself”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-5e7178eb8f088d7575595616#liveblog-navigation

https://twitter.com/PuyallupPD?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[wayneL]

Excellent to see a proactive approach from police forces as they try to stay on top of the multiple challenges the COVID 19 virus is posing.

11:43
Police in Puyallup, Washington have asked criminals to stop committing crimes in light of the coronavirus epidemic.
The Puyallup Police Department posted on Facebook:

“Due to local cases of #Covid-19, PPD is asking all criminal activities and nefarious behavior to cease. We appreciate your anticipated cooperation in halting crime & thank all the criminals in advance. We will certainly let you know when you can resume your normal criminal behavior. Until then.... #washyourhands & #behaveyourself”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...-5e7178eb8f088d7575595616#liveblog-navigation

https://twitter.com/PuyallupPD?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Maybe the police should politely ask the government and corporates to stop rorting we plebeians too.

 

[sptrawler]

I think the progressive ramping up is what's causing alarm and panic.

Less than a week ago there was no ban on gatherings and major events were still happening. Then it was a "recommended" maximum of 500, now it's a ban on more than 100. No doubt soon it'll be close to zero as in other countries.

Same at the shops, in about 15 days it has gone from "no problem" to "only toilet paper" to "toilet paper and a few other basics" to "quite a few more things" and this week alone we've already seen "we're reducing trading hours" and now "maximum purchase limit of 2 items per person on practically everything" and it's only Wednesday.

Anyone able to spot trends can see that things are very rapidly getting worse and that anyone saying "no need to panic", whilst perhaps rationally correct, has lost credibility at this point in that observed reality doesn't match what's being said.

There's also a disproportionate impact on the poor in all this. Whereas they might normally have bought the home brand product at Coles or Woolies for $5, that's been raided so now they've got to buy the brand name product and go to a small shop to get it at a price of $10 or more. Etc. The shops may not have directly increased pricing but the cost of purchasing the cheapest available products has hugely increased in practice and that's really going to hit the poor.

It will probably ramp up, untill the opportune time to 'shut down' is reached, there is no point doing it too early or too late.
Too early and the whole process starts up again after the lock down, too late and it gets completely out of control, bit of a cleft stick situation.
As you say the poor are going to cop it, luckily the $750 will be arriving soon.