Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[lindsayf]

It looks as if the stock market will jump on opening...

I think this will be a very nasty bear trap.

Yes I think so too..except 'bull' trap (no doubt you meant to say).

 

[Sdajii]

It is but then it's intended to be comedy not factual information.

It's still intended to be factual and informative while entertaining, people obviously typically see it that way, the series has been going for years and has always been intended as genuine information presented in a funny way, and it was clearly scaremongering in the extreme, very hypocritically so.

 

[sptrawler]

Trump ‘offers large sums’ for exclusive access to vaccine
The Trump administration has offered German medical company CureVac “large sums of money” for exclusive access to a Covid-19 vaccine, German broadsheet Die Welt reports, citing German government circles. According to an anonymous source quoted in the newspaper, Trump was doing everything to secure a vaccine against the coronavirus for the US, “but for the US only”.

And there it is right here.
This will not ONLY be Trumps way of dealing with things but many if not most
other countries.

BUT
This tells you very clearly how the US would come to your rescue if
it was a case of self preservation.
Good on ya mate!

Sounds like someone in the media, up to their normal crap.
From the article:
Earlier, when approached about the report by the Guardian, the German health ministry would only confirm the accuracy of the quotes attributed to one of its spokespersons in the article.
May be the case of joining the dots, to make a better story?
I'm sure every Country will be paying for any vaccine, and any company that is in the process of making a vaccine will be approached by the medical sections of every Government, requesting access to any vaccine.

 

[tech/a]

Sounds like someone in the media, up to their normal crap.
From the article:
Earlier, when approached about the report by the Guardian, the German health ministry would only confirm the accuracy of the quotes attributed to one of its spokespersons in the article.
May be the case of joining the dots, to make a better story?
I'm sure every Country will be paying for any vaccine, and any company that is in the process of making a vaccine will be approached by the medical sections of every Government, requesting access to any vaccine.

Yes well there is certainly that.
Annoyed that I could have fallen for that.

 

[basilio]

It's still intended to be factual and informative while entertaining, people obviously typically see it that way, the series has been going for years and has always been intended as genuine information presented in a funny way, and it was clearly scaremongering in the extreme, very hypocritically so.

Sorry Sdajii I think you have missed the point of these "Honest Government ads".
They have always been a piece of very savage satire on the political behaviour of largely Liberal Governments.

In my memory they have never (up until this piece ) also included a genuine public health message. The writers decided that if they were going to roast the various governments for their xhitxuckery on addressing the corona virus they should do something practical in terms of educating the public.

If you disagree with my observation your welcome to post a few examples of what you have seen as practical community service information embedded in the ads.

 

[CBerg]

Sorry if this has been answered here or elsewhere.
But with the self isolation for travelers - how does this affect imports/exports more importantly air & sea freight?

Are crews that probably do not do more than sit on the boat/aircraft need to be quarantined? Going to make it extremely difficult if it is applied to them.

 

[basilio]

Sounds like someone in the media, up to their normal crap.
From the article:
Earlier, when approached about the report by the Guardian, the German health ministry would only confirm the accuracy of the quotes attributed to one of its spokespersons in the article.
May be the case of joining the dots, to make a better story?
I'm sure every Country will be paying for any vaccine, and any company that is in the process of making a vaccine will be approached by the medical sections of every Government, requesting access to any vaccine.

Rumpy from reading the article carefully I believe the story is accurate.

Clearly an official Government spokesman is not going to publicly highlight such a US centered approach by Donald Trump. That is just not good poolitics.

The relevant quotes from the story are
Earlier, when approached about the report by the Guardian, the German health ministry would only confirm the accuracy of the quotes attributed to one of its spokespersons in the article.

“The federal government is very interested in vaccines and antiviral agents against the novel coronavirus being developed in Germany and Europe,” the spokesperson quoted in the original article had said. “In this regard the government is in an intensive exchange with the company CureVac.”
The German health ministry spokesperson declined the opportunity to correct any inaccuracies in Die Welt’s account.

This was the opportunity to correct any error the newspaper had made in its reporting of Donald Trumps efforts to buy the company solely for US distribution. They declined to make any such correction.

 

[jbocker]

OK Crown are allowed to operate under distancing rules.
So why not have the same for sporting grandstands Every 2nd or 3rd seat active and every second row vacant. Hot Dogs and drinks only available by roaming sellers up and down vacant aisles. Shops closed.
Staggered entry.

 

[Sdajii]

Sorry Sdajii I think you have missed the point of these "Honest Government ads".
They have always been a piece of very savage satire on the political behaviour of largely Liberal Governments.

In my memory they have never (up until this piece ) also included a genuine public health message. The writers decided that if they were going to roast the various governments for their xhitxuckery on addressing the corona virus they should do something practical in terms of educating the public.

If you disagree with my observation your welcome to post a few examples of what you have seen as practical community service information embedded in the ads.

However you spin it, the video did say the virus is not a big deal, then blamed the media for scaremongering, then blamed Trump for playing it down, then blatantly scaremongered.

However you spin it, all their videos display information in a way which is supposed to be taken as factual. That estimate of human fatalities was comically phrased as "a lot of fu$$ing dead people" but the figure was clearly an actual estimate to be taken seriously as a figure, and describing that number as "a lot of f$$king dead people" is as clear a case of scaremongering as you can get. While it may make some people laugh, it is clearly designed to make the viewer distrust Trump, think he is bad for playing the virus itself down, and then tells the viewer that we're going to see it kill huge numbers of people. Even if you laugh while watching it, being told to expect "a lot of fu##ing dead people" is going to scare people and contribute to fear and panic.

 

[basilio]

This is a thorough, excellent analysis of the process of developing, testing and producing a safe effective vaccine for the Covid 19 virus. It isn't simple. It can and has gone badly wrong in the past. If it isn't done carefully a bad vaccine could cause immeasurably more harm.

When will a coronavirus vaccine be ready?
Human trials will begin in April – but even if they go well, there are many barriers before global immunisation is feasible

Even at their most effective – and draconian – containment strategies have only slowed the spread of the respiratory disease Covid-19. With the World Health Organization finally declaring a pandemic, all eyes have turned to the prospect of a vaccine, because only a vaccine can prevent people from getting sick.

About 35 companies and academic institutions are racing to create such a vaccine, at least four of which already have candidates they have been testing in animals. The first of these – produced by Boston-based biotech firm Moderna – will enter human trials in April.

This unprecedented speed is thanks in large part to early Chinese efforts to sequence the genetic material of Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. China shared that sequence in early January, allowing research groups around the world to grow the live virus and study how it invades human cells and makes people sick.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ine-be-ready-human-trials-global-immunisation

However you spin it, the video did say the virus is not a big deal, then blamed the media for scaremongering, then blamed Trump for playing it down, then blatantly scaremongered.

However you spin it, all their videos display information in a way which is supposed to be taken as factual. That estimate of human fatalities was comically phrased as "a lot of fu$$ing dead people" but the figure was clearly an actual estimate to be taken seriously as a figure, and describing that number as "a lot of f$$king dead people" is as clear a case of scaremongering as you can get. While it may make some people laugh, it is clearly designed to make the viewer distrust Trump, think he is bad for playing the virus itself down, and then tells the viewer that we're going to see it kill huge numbers of people. Even if you laugh while watching it, being told to expect "a lot of fu##ing dead people" is going to scare people and contribute to fear and panic.

Would you prefer to see the quotes of how many xucking dead people there could be come from a recognised epidemiologist ? Plenty of those who will verify the accuracy of their story.
And you are quite correct in noting that much of the venom in the ad was directed at Donald Trump.
Given his behaviour do you think that was justified ?

 

[jbocker]

This is a thorough, excellent analysis of the process of developing, testing and producing a safe effective vaccine for the Covid 19 virus. It isn't simple. It can and has gone badly wrong in the past. If it isn't done carefully a bad vaccine could cause immeasurably more harm.

Thalidomide in pregnant women in 1950s and early 60s a drug event which proves that point, and any wonder why new drugs take so long to get on board.

 

[MrChow]

Both the 2009 Swine Flu and 1918 Spanish Flu peaked in a second wave in November.

 

[satanoperca]

3 peope a day die in on our roads.
We dont ban cars
How many have died from the virus today or yesterday or the day before.

The virus might be bad. But human reaction is going to cause far more pain.

Watch suicide rates sky rocket in coming months due to the financial fallout, along wih divorce rates.

 

[basilio]

This development is totally foreseeable. Will be important to see how it is resolved.

In reactions to the coronavirus crisis this morning, Air New Zealand has cut 85% of its international flights and will cut jobs, Crown Resorts has closed every second poker machine at its casinos and the hearing implant company Cochlear has withdrawn its previous profit forecasts.

But the big development is that financial regulators are going to meet with the big banks this week. The immediate problem is that small to medium businesses have no money to repay their loans. Banks have said they will allow those customers to delay repayments, which in turn will put pressure on their own businesses.

If small businesses start sacking people in droves, defaults on home mortgages become more likely. This is a potentially big problem for the banks, which have lent heavily against houses.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...085e564ad84b53#block-5e6edafe8f085e564ad84b53

 

[satanoperca]

If small businesses start sacking people in droves, defaults on home mortgages become more likely. This is a potentially big problem for the banks, which have lent heavily against houses.

This is not an "If" statement but rather a "When" as it will happen.

I have spent most of this morning talking to business owners that I deal with, they are all preparing their contingency plans for the next 3 months, all of them involve removing overheads, and that is staff.

Most of the business owners I have been talking to, went through the GFC, they are not going to wait and see this time, they are going to act fast and furiously. They would rather their decisions be wrong, than go broke.

 

[basilio]

This is not an "If" statement but rather a "When" as it will happen.

I have spent most of this morning talking to business owners that I deal with, they are all preparing their contingency plans for the next 3 months, all of them involve removing overheads, and that is staff.

Most of the business owners I have been talking to, went through the GFC, they are not going to wait and see this time, they are going to act fast and furiously. They would rather their decisions be wrong, than go broke.

Which makes even more critical for the government to
1) Keep people solvent and in their homes
2) Ensure business stays alive even if it is in limbo and not making a lot of money.

 

[tech/a]

This has to be measured over reaction inuendo,what ifs
crap reporting for sensationalism has to stop.

If media was used to HELP the situation rather than INFLAME it
then much of this panic can be avoided.

 

[basilio]

A more detailed news report on the attempt by Donald Trump to buy a German company to ensure its Corona vaccine was for US use only.
The money shot was at the end of the story.

Germany and US wrestle over coronavirus vaccine
US President Trump is attempting to entice a German lab to develop a vaccine exclusively for the US, a German newspaper reported. The company, however, later rejected claims of a sale of the firm or its technology.

... Meeting with Trump

Trump on Saturdaytested negative for the coronavirus after potentially being exposed to several cases.

The COVID-19 outbreak, which started in China, has spread across the globe with more than 156,000 confirmed cases and 5,800 deaths. More than 70,000 people have recovered from the virus, which presents for most people as a mild to moderate illness, but can become a serious condition in others.

On March 2, CureVac's then-CEO Daniel Menichella attended a meeting at the White House to discuss coronavirus vaccine development with Trump and members of his coronavirus taskforce.

On March 11, the company announced Menichella would be replaced by company founder Ingmar Hoerr, without giving a reason why.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-us-wrestle-over-coronavirus-vaccine/a-52777990

 

[satanoperca]

Which makes even more critical for the government to
1) Keep people solvent and in their homes
2) Ensure business stays alive even if it is in limbo and not making a lot of money.

It is not the govnuts job, we live in a capitalistic society. If they really wanted people to remain solvent and in their homes, we would not have the ridiculously high housing prices and be one of the most indepbted nations per capita in the world(private debt).
The only way to clean the swamp is with a good flood and that we have, the BLACK SWANS must be smiling.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Both the 2009 Swine Flu and 1918 Spanish Flu peaked in a second wave in November.

Thanks @MrChow

It is still difficult to extrapolate this to the Coronavirus as they are very different organisms in their DNA, spread, action at cellular level and survival characteristics ( their survival btw ).

gg