Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

My knowledge of economic history is by no means complete but from what I do know, I think most of the population is blissfully ignorant as to just how long things actually took during previous events.

Some random points I'm aware of:

The DJIA crashed in 1929 as is fairly well known. Perhaps less well known is that it took until mid-1932 to reach the bottom.

The DJIA did not return to its 1929 high in nominal value until 1954. That's 25 years.

In inflation adjusted terms, the DJIA did not reach its' 1929 high again until 1959 and did not permanently exceed this level in inflation adjusted terms until late 1991, fully 62 years after the crash.

Many industries which shut down in 1930 as the great depression set in did resume operations but not until circa 1936. Among many others were various metal smelting plants in Australia.

Australian basic wage was cut 10% in 1931 and restored in 1937.

Australian state governments were still actively pursuing "make work schemes" in 1934 to address the economic problems. It may have continued even longer but was definitely still around that point.

The DJIA reached another high in January 1966 at just under 1000. It then went sideways and did not meaningfully exceed this level in nominal terms until late 1982.

In inflation adjusted terms the January 1966 level was not exceeded until September 1995. In the meantime the USA put a man on the moon and experienced 5 recessions.

Here's a 100 year chart of the DJIA with options for either nominal values or inflation adjusted: https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

As is fairly well known, Australia's last official recession ended in 1991. However:

Australian unemployment did not return to its 1989 low point until 2003 and was persistently seen as a problem throughout the 1990's.

Australian state governments were in general also still dealing with the fallout from the recession in the late 1990's and politics was still very much about "ending the recession". Whilst it may have technically ended years earlier, it sure didn't feel like it in much of the country where a "doom and gloom" environment persisted.

Another aspect from the difficulties of the past was a shortage of capital. Read back through old annual reports and so on of both private enterprise and government authorities and a consistent theme emerges. They'd like to do x but couldn't get the money! Couldn't borrow it from a bank, because the banks didn't have enough money to lend, and couldn't raise funds easily by any other means either.

For quite some time various government authorities went as far as borrowing money directly from the general public in order to fund infrastructure. Like these:

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Various listed companies likewise encouraged members of the public, the vast majority of whom had no experience with share ownership at the time, to buy their newly issued shares for the same underlying reason that capital was scarce.

Now my point here isn't about 1929 or investing in railways and I'm not saying we're necessarily about to have a repeat of the Great Depression. Rather, my point is simply that there are plenty of past precedents, within just one human lifetime, for economic problems which take decades to fully resolve.

I think there's a lot of people, probably including some of our politicians, completely unaware of history in this regard. Completely unaware of just how difficult getting out of a hole can end up being and how long it takes. Given the extent of the current circumstances, that's somewhat concerning. :2twocents
 
As mentioned previously sick/personal/annual/long service leave is all predicated on the business still operating. I would predict a lot of places just shutting down or slimming down to just the owner or family running a small business instead of employees if faced with a 70% reduction in business.

I would think the government would have to print, who's going to lend to them on the basis they're stopping economic activity?

Suspending, but equally there are stimulus measures so there will be a return to business as normal at some stage.
 
Suspending, but equally there are stimulus measures so there will be a return to business as normal at some stage.
You can only suspend if your rent,taxes,rates,pay slips are suspended
And all deadlined pushed
If you suspend payment but still have to pay the same total amount by eofy, you close.simple
And then if you do not pay the rent, who pays the landlord, your bank employees
However you see it means economic cataclysm.the variations is how bad or worth it can be based on gov decisions.
Maybe a time for labour to shut up and help as well instead of, yesterday ,complaining about scomo changing mind cf footy
Seriously, and coming from someone i though of being maybe a bit more reasonable.
We are in a marathon with a lot of pain ahead, even if we manage to save lives and that last point is not a given even if managed as best as possible
 
Maybe a time for labour to shut up and help as well instead of, yesterday ,complaining about scomo changing mind cf footy

It's pretty hard to work out what to do when circumstances are changing quickly, but the cancellation of the F1 , playing cricket in an empty stadium, cancellation of Dark Mofo etc seems to indicate that business and other groups are well ahead of the government in what should be done.

Slomo looks a bit silly if he says one thing today and does the opposite the next. He's not inspiring confidence, maybe he should self isolate for a while.
 
Spot on...

It's pretty hard to work out what to do when circumstances are changing quickly, but the cancellation of the F1 , playing cricket in an empty stadium, cancellation of Dark Mofo etc seems to indicate that business and other groups are well ahead of the government in what should be done.

Slomo looks a bit silly if he says one thing today and does the opposite the next. He's not inspiring confidence, maybe he should self isolate for a while.
 
It's pretty hard to work out what to do when circumstances are changing quickly, but the cancellation of the F1 , playing cricket in an empty stadium, cancellation of Dark Mofo etc seems to indicate that business and other groups are well ahead of the government in what should be done.

Slomo looks a bit silly if he says one thing today and does the opposite the next. He's not inspiring confidence, maybe he should self isolate for a while.

The irony is the maths around Smokos going to the Sharks game is sort of OK its just the messaging that's the issue.

And to be fair he is likely trying to say don't panic.

But then he has had contact with an infected person......

However its the time for messaging on getting prepared and educated about what to do not going about normal life and it has to happen now aggressively before health services get over run.
 
The irony is the maths around Smokos going to the Sharks game is sort of OK its just the messaging that's the issue.

And to be fair he is likely trying to say don't panic.

But then he has had contact with an infected person......

However its the time for messaging on getting prepared and educated about what to do not going about normal life and it has to happen now aggressively before health services get over run.
I think it is time to make the courageous decision to close education till at least end of easter break, then ensure that we reopen the country slowly as we control icu numbers
That os a fine line not to panic yet take measure required, and let science be in charge for a change
 
Good explanation from scomo cf plateau target,but why are unis still open, just because money is lost if this is done before 31rst?
31rst is a deadline cf payment snd courses taken here in qld at least....
 
As mentioned previously sick/personal/annual/long service leave is all predicated on the business still operating. I would predict a lot of places just shutting down or slimming down to just the owner or family running a small business instead of employees if faced with a 70% reduction in business.

I would think the government would have to print, who's going to lend to them on the basis they're stopping economic activity?

Absolutely right CBerg (IMO). I have come to the same conclusion that to get over this crisis we need to

1) Keep people fed and housed and basic bills paid until the virus is under control
2) Keep businesses alive but in suspension for the same time. Similar principles to above. Basic cost covered infrastructure kept operational until the virus is under control

I can only see a government creating credit achieving this. I don't believe it will be inflationary because there won't be too much money chasing too few goods just enough money to pay for relatively essential necessities.

Purists might argue to "let the marketplace rule". That will create an economic crash of epic proportions and hardship that will undermine our societies capacity to operate. It just makes no sense to bankrupt people and companies for a short term crisis that we have seen can be controlled with appropriate policies.
 
You can only suspend if your rent,taxes,rates,pay slips are suspended
And all deadlined pushed

Had an interesting discussion about this with a lawyer this morning (in the capacity of a friend I’ve known for many years not in a formal professional context).

Paraphrasing some of their comments:

Consider everything involved in a property transaction. Everyone from the vendor, RE agent, solicitor, government, banks, removalists, insurance, utilities and so on.

If any one of those fails then it becomes unworkable. If the vendor’s new home is now occupied by its current owner who is in isolation, if the lawyer is in isolation or the removalists or whoever well then the whole thing doesn’t work.

Their view was that the only option was to declare all contracts, of any sort, suspended by default with an option for all parties to agree to proceed if they’re able but the default answer is no and no penalty can be applied by any party. That’s all contracts from a property settlement to the completion date of a building project through to the expiry date on your car registration. Extend literally everything that’s current.

That is of course an outright disaster but it would seem a lesser disaster than having people moving house unable to get a removalist and especially so in the context of those who become infected and isolate at home.

Even with seemingly simple things like car registration, in states where a road worthy inspection is required that’s going to be a huge problem and last thing we need is to add to society’s woes by forcing perfectly good cars off the roads on a legal technicality. Just extend the rego date without question.

Likewise let’s not have any other things made difficult by compliance issues. Things like licenses needing photos, just extend the expiry date on the current one. Things like councils issuing orders to rectify building problems etc, unless it really is going to fall down then now’s not the time to be worrying about some technicality that something doesn’t comply with the rules.

And so on. Basically they were saying don’t enforce anything unless there’s an extremely pressing need to do so since compliance is going to become difficult if not impossible in many situations.
 
Effects of the Corona Virus across industries.

Coronavirus: British Airways boss tells staff jobs will go
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51875271


Coronavirus: Spain and France announce sweeping restrictions
Two of the EU's biggest states, Spain and France, have followed Italy in announcing emergency restrictions to combat the spread of the coronavirus.

In Spain, people are banned from leaving home except for buying essential supplies and medicines, or for work.
With 191 deaths, Spain is Europe's worst-hit country after Italy.





 
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There’s quite a lot of concern about major maintenance work in heavy industry going forward. Mines, smelters, power stations, refineries etc.

In the power industry there’s two basic problems apart from the obvious with the virus itself:

1. The outage window is seasonal. In most states can’t do it in Summer due to peak demand and there’s only limited opportunity in Winter when demand is also reasonably high.

Autumn and Spring are thus the main focus such that missing Autumn is more serious than it may seem.

End result if not done = breakdowns and blackouts become far more likely.

2. In some cases regulatory compliance issues will force production to stop if maintenance isn’t done.

That creates an extremely difficult situation to say the least unless government’s willing to give formal exemptions from the law.

Other industries would be having similar issues no doubt.
 
Had an interesting discussion about this with a lawyer this morning (in the capacity of a friend I’ve known for many years not in a formal professional context).

Paraphrasing some of their comments:

Consider everything involved in a property transaction. Everyone from the vendor, RE agent, solicitor, government, banks, removalists, insurance, utilities and so on.

If any one of those fails then it becomes unworkable. If the vendor’s new home is now occupied by its current owner who is in isolation, if the lawyer is in isolation or the removalists or whoever well then the whole thing doesn’t work.

Their view was that the only option was to declare all contracts, of any sort, suspended by default with an option for all parties to agree to proceed if they’re able but the default answer is no and no penalty can be applied by any party. That’s all contracts from a property settlement to the completion date of a building project through to the expiry date on your car registration. Extend literally everything that’s current.

That is of course an outright disaster but it would seem a lesser disaster than having people moving house unable to get a removalist and especially so in the context of those who become infected and isolate at home.

Even with seemingly simple things like car registration, in states where a road worthy inspection is required that’s going to be a huge problem and last thing we need is to add to society’s woes by forcing perfectly good cars off the roads on a legal technicality. Just extend the rego date without question.

Likewise let’s not have any other things made difficult by compliance issues. Things like licenses needing photos, just extend the expiry date on the current one. Things like councils issuing orders to rectify building problems etc, unless it really is going to fall down then now’s not the time to be worrying about some technicality that something doesn’t comply with the rules.

And so on. Basically they were saying don’t enforce anything unless there’s an extremely pressing need to do so since compliance is going to become difficult if not impossible in many situations.
exactly all contracts from rates to rego to rent etc to be pushed by xx months, and gov to give survival money to all from landlords to centerlink recipients to CEO;
If that money is a fixed standard centerlink amount, this is fair, anything else is gross manipulation of society but I imagine labour if Alan Jones got his 200$ a week or whatever.
Make that amount taxable of course
 
Possible pathway out of this; though a timeline is not given (is there one?)
● Keep up to date on statistics of the spread (and, when it comes, the containment) of the coronavirus pandemic.
● Expect the accommodative monetary settings and fiscal stimulation to be kept in place for an extended period.
● Watch for further sell-offs in sharemarkets before confidence returns and stays stronger.
● Prepare a list of quality shares (or share funds) suited for the individual investor’s longer-term needs.
● Bear in mind that the best times to buy good assets is when confidence is low and a rout is on.
● When it appears time to re-enter the sharemarket, play it safe for a while by “averaging in” to build a holding of the quality shares (or share funds).
Don Stammer (eminence grise, probably seen a few of these)
 
Vaccine even the imminent possibility of human trials
Will stop the plunge

Once the vaccine is out then you’ll see mass buying and fast!
 
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