Makes sense
Makes senseYeah there was a great peter schiff interview with precisely this. He basically said that he didn't see used cars dropping in price because new cards are now going to be so much more expensive. If used is a percentage of new and new is higher, there's your inflation even in the used market.
I'll see if I can dig it up if you're interested?
It's a bit of a special case, but I bought Landrover 90, 18 months ago for 25k and have been offered 50k for it this year. Done nothing to it 'cept normal maintenance.Makes sense
It definitely sounds like something relevant to the discussion.I'll see if I can dig it up if you're interested?
Again, it's all supply-side. Australia (and america) is largely self-reliant on food and lockdowns have A: largely been confined to the cities and B: still don't stop farmers getting up and farming on their, you know, farms.It definitely sounds like something relevant to the discussion.
My basic thought on inflation though is that it's seeping in all around. Cars, houses etc are obvious but then there's things like food and groceries, fuel and so on too.
Last summer diesel was 135.9 cents per litre. It's now 158.9 cents at the same service station. That's just one very obvious example. Exactly the same product, purchased at the same place, now costs 16.9% more.
The nearest supermarket hasn't increased the price of bakery items or meat but they've drastically reduced the end of day discounts. So no change for most customers but it's a big jump for anyone who's really trying to save $ and who'll go in just before closing to buy bread or a chicken or whatever.
Then there's product quality. As my cat has drawn to my attention, what was decent food with visible pieces of fish is now not something she wants to eat and, to be fair, I wouldn't want to eat it either. Whatever's in it sure doesn't look or smell like fish to me. And so I now buy a different brand that costs more. In some ways that's not inflation but it the price is unchanged but quality drops to the point of having to change brand then arguably it is.
In the case of farmers, they can't get enough workers to pick crops. Knock on effects of lockdowns.Again, it's all supply-side. Australia (and america) is largely self-reliant on food and lockdowns have A: largely been confined to the cities and B: still don't stop farmers getting up and farming on their, you know, farms.
So the supply of things like food has remained, but when we look at things we import from overseas, it's a sh!tshow.
Simple example:
"Vietnam factory closures delaying US inventory replenishment"
https://www.joc.com/maritime-news/v...ying-us-inventory-replenishment_20210924.html
"Vietnam closures push retailers to shift tactics, suppliers ahead of the holidays"
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/retailers-shift-tactics-suppliers-Vietnam-lockdowns/606363/
"Vietnam’s Factory Shutdowns Tug at Apparel Industry’s Seams"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/vietnams-factory-shutdowns-tug-at-apparel-industrys-seams-11630661403
"Covid-19 Factory Closures Prompt Some U.S. Businesses to Rethink Vietnam"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-...-u-s-businesses-to-rethinkvietnam-11633014618
"Companies scramble to shift manufacturing out of Covid-crushed Vietnam in time for holidays"
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/22/com...ut-of-covid-crushed-vietnam-for-holidays.html
And then you get the omnipresent microchip shortage playing merry hell with everything...
Again, this is ALL supply side. All of it. And this is before even thinking about the shortage of people working at the ports or driving trucks or whatever.
So yeah, no virus and self production = no problem. Anything else = problem.
Months ago, yes. Even meatworks were having to close and so there was I think a pig-derived product shortage. But that's long since passed:In the case of farmers, they can't get enough workers to pick crops. Knock on effects of lockdowns.
Building materials are also having supply side issues and huge price increases
If you think the proverbial is going to hit the fan then the USD is still overwhelmingly the flight to safety playThe more I consider the situation of already breaking supply chains, and now the cluster f*** in the job market due to vaccine mandates, bonds possibly swooning and potentially jumping off a cliff (the China RE market being up the their @rse in alligators), the more I am getting very concerned about a cascading default sh¹tshow.
I'm especially petrified is I have a ton in cash at the moment as we are trying to rejig our whole financial position to be more risk averse. (Which can sometimes be unwittingly chockers full of bloody risk anyway).
Hi, Iv'e been in the US the past 6 months waiting to get back to Australia when it seems reasonable. Lots of products are hit and miss. If you need something and are unsure how much you need, best to take more and return later. Basic products just not available for weeks on end. Its real random though.https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...et-paper-coffee-chicken-hard-find/8455259002/
Empty shelves in the US for the Holiday seasons...
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