Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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frugal.rock said:
I'm wondering if you @over9k might do a short executive summary of "everything"?
I'm scratching my head about market direction at the moment.

Have to say, this pandemic business has wreaked havoc trying to raise two young (female) kids...aye carumba.
Click to expand...
Over what timeframe? You mean just lately or???

Lately, everything got pounded due to inflation fears and then there was a mass passing-on of all costs. Just look at shipping prices as an example - all the stevedores, truck drivers etc etc are working around the clock on huge penalty rates so on and so forth which would normally cut margins/profits significantly, but if you just jack up the price of shipping commensurately, you continue to rake in the cash.

Take and apply en masse with energy, interest rates etc etc.

It's also providing beautiful swing plays every time sentiment changes as the banks and/or energy run and tech plummets or vice-versa. To state the bleeding obvious, I'm only doing these on days where BOTH sides move.

Aside from that, as I showed before, your best inflation hedge is crypto. Bitcoin's up what, 40% in a bit over a month? The correlation with the US10Y is amazing.


There's now even bitcoin etf's you can buy options for like a total degenerate ;)
 
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On the topic, 2 observations

1. spoke to my 22 yo niece today, she said alot of people her age including friends, don't want to go back to work. Free money is better then earned money

2. Thought it was me but other people also have noticed the overall quality along with quantity has and is decreasing. Simple things such as sticky tape, staples, rubber bands or glad wrap bags fail and break alot easier as of late. Less quality/materials in production?

ecdd8ce48622077d9020--house-of-cards-playing-cards.jpg
 
againsthegrain said:
On the topic, 2 observations

1. spoke to my 22 yo niece today, she said alot of people her age including friends, don't want to go back to work. Free money is better then earned money

2. Thought it was me but other people also have noticed the overall quality along with quantity has and is decreasing. Simple things such as sticky tape, staples, rubber bands or glad wrap bags fail and break alot easier as of late. Less quality/materials in production?

View attachment 131975
Click to expand...
Very apt image.
 
And another....

2436236236.jpg


BTU been a bit of a falling knife the last few days but it went absurd with gas & coal prices so we'll see.
 
over9k said:
And another....

View attachment 132072


BTU been a bit of a falling knife the last few days but it went absurd with gas & coal prices so we'll see.
Click to expand...
The day after:

243626245.jpg

And the day after that:

23452323623465.jpg

And here's the broader market as a whole over the last month vs BTU, just for some context:

23452362362346234.jpg

So still plenty of money to bank through just buying & holding. The printing presses haven't stopped.
 
However, check out bitcoin over the last month vs SPXL:

243562624542565.jpg

As you can see, bitcoin has run almost 1.5x as much as the triple levered S&P500 ETF, or some 4.5x as much as the rest of the market.


Big tech has also been the other place to be over the last month, which if you'd bought FNGU to triple lever into would have beaten even bitcoin:

52345234562345624356432.jpg


However, when we run things out to the 3 month point:

234523452345243.jpg

We can see it is energy and crypto that have been the plays to be in right up until only about a week ago.


So if you'd moved into energy and crypto like I mentioned I had and are staring at the 1 month graph kicking yourself, don't be. On a longer timeline you're head & shoulders ahead of the old plays.

But remember, they've been catching up, so hopefully you grabbed a small amount of tech (I posted when I did it earlier in the thread) in anticipation, and can see how things have been moving lately. I've been posting some of my plays in this thread and will continue to do so.

I'm still very overweight crypto ;)
 
over9k said:
The day after:

View attachment 132265

And the day after that:

View attachment 132266

And here's the broader market as a whole over the last month vs BTU, just for some context:



So still plenty of money to bank through just buying & holding. The printing presses haven't stopped.
Click to expand...
Make that four in a row now:

14325123451432.jpg

See this trading stuff is easy. Buy when red, sell when green. 25% in four days.
 
Right so I finally have some actual news/analysis that is not the normal inflation or not SNAFU:



chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/viewer.html?pdfurl=https%3A%2F%2Fir.eia.gov%2Fwpsr%2Fwpsrsummary.pdf&clen=61248&chunk=true

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 434.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.

So actual fuel inventories dropped whilst crude inventories bounced. So in other words, the crude taps have been opened, but there's still the problem of refining it.

To state the bleeding obvious, the hands-on guys that do the refining are the more vaccine-averse types, so this problem may continue for quite some time.

This is the exact same problem shipping is having - the product is arriving, but there's not enough people to get it to the end consumer. Watch this space to see if we end up with oil tankers sitting at anchor again. If the saudi's et al overestimate the refining capabilities at the other end, we're going to see storage tanks brimmed and thus tankers sitting at anchor desperate to unload once again.

If that happens, I see no reason why the oil price won't plummet just like it did last time as they practically give it away in order to get it off the ships. Last year, big tankers were costing 250k a DAY.



So all depends on whether OPEC et al overestimate the demand increase rate or not. Current storage levels are at about 450 million barrels and last I checked they have 700 million worth of storage room before everything is full.

Watch this space.
 
Tapering announced. 15 billion a month is going. Markets have obviously moved. Good signs all round.
 
Well a good thing to come out of the pandemic, farm workers to get a minimum wage, that is great now we wont have to import seasonal workers and use up back packers. There will be a rush from our long term unemployed, to pick up the jobs.
I think it is great news, farmers should be able to pay sensible wages, if they have a sensible business.
If they can't, maybe they should find another business.

www.smh.com.au

Fruit-picking pay win could put Australians back to work on farms

The Australian Workers Union says the decision to create a minimum pay floor of $25 an hour for fruit-picking is its most significant victory in 135 years.
www.smh.com.au www.smh.com.au
From the article:
The Australia Workers Union is claiming a historic victory over the farm lobby after the Fair Work Commission ordered every farm worker in the country is entitled the minimum casual pay rate of $25.41 per hour.
 
sptrawler said:
There will be a rush from our long term unemployed, to pick up the jobs
Click to expand...
Mr @sptrawler , this post shows clearly a generation gap?
In the new world, with universal income, perpetual QE, welfare for all and tax the Rich as a rule, who the hell is going to go in the outdoor, freezing cold, dripping wet or burning hot for $26 an hour and then be taxed and lose welfare when you can get the same financialoutcome, playing video games and the latest incarnation of phone game apps, while smoking some good herbal stuff.
It is good new for the existing hard working guys already sweating at the farm but do not expect a rush.
Today at aldi, tomatoos are $7 a kg nearly twice the price of chicken, and many shelves are empty.
No almond yesterday at coles no yoghurt today at ALDI, etc etc same issue last week...
Basically had to go thru 2 big retailers to fill the shopping list
Yes the supply chain is being strained...
 
qldfrog said:
Mr @sptrawler , this post shows clearly a generation gap?
In the new world, with universal income, perpetual QE, welfare for all and tax the Rich as a rule, who the hell is going to go in the outdoor, freezing cold, dripping wet or burning hot for $26 an hour and then be taxed and lose welfare when you can get the same financialoutcome, playing video games and the latest incarnation of phone game apps, while smoking some good herbal stuff.
It is good new for the existing hard working guys already sweating at the farm but do not expect a rush.
Today at aldi, tomatoos are $7 a kg nearly twice the price of chicken, and many shelves are empty.
No almond yesterday at coles no yoghurt today at ALDI, etc etc same issue last week...
Basically had to go thru 2 big retailers to fill the shopping list
Yes the supply chain is being strained...
Click to expand...

To be fair when houses are 1m, min wage is not much motivation to go out and break your back for all the gen Z

much easier to collect ubi live with mum and buy crypto
 

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