Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[wabullfrog]

Brief chat with a truckie this morning, his motor want kaput on his prime mover a couple of weeks ago & is unable to get a replacement.

 

[qldfrog]

Brief chat with a truckie this morning, his motor want kaput on his prime mover a couple of weeks ago & is unable to get a replacement.

Do you know why, affected by transport?
I know container traffic was very tight early this year.i doubt factories closed?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Meanwhile, life and (near) death at the coalface. Neighbour, 57, had a cardiac episode three weeks ago. Took a Uber to hospital. Five stents and a week later, he's home. A bit clapped out but rebooted.

Last night, the knock on the door; he'd called ambo's. I go up to the road while partner stays with him, she's a RN. Ambulance here in 10, but then the fun. Full PPE, stern warnings to keep distance, asked several times if anyone is infectious, took at least 10-15 mins to prep before they even ventured to see the patient.

anyway, he's OK, in observation.

 

[wabullfrog]

Do you know why, affected by transport?
I know container traffic was very tight early this year.i doubt factories closed?

Australia is a very small segment of their market so we are low on the priority list, chip shortages also an issue & then you have the big fish in Oz that will get first dibs on any stock availability.

 

[qldfrog]

True,low priority and forgot about this chip shortage
that so called chip shortage would be worthwhile investigating, i wonder if it is a China control attempt, there is no way the few people buying a new pc created it, and factories for chips are highly robotised so have run undisturbed.
Anyone knowing of an article seriously looking at the numbers there?
Not some BS about WFH and zoom chip demands

 

[over9k]

Little good news this week sorry guys, everyone are losing their collective minds over this delta variant.

 

[moXJO]

I keep hearing about businesses closing due to stock shortages. A lot of issues with suppliers.

 

[over9k]

Depends on the business - any business in the business of maintaining old stuff is run off their feet. The local small engine shop near to me (sells chainsaws, mowers, all that kind of stuff) has a two month repair backlog and are having to actually turn work away.

 

[qldfrog]

I keep hearing about businesses closing due to stock shortages. A lot of issues with suppliers.

Are we talking Chinese or OS products or domestic?
Which shortage if we are supposedly back economically?
I find this hard to swallow,unless a sea container availability issue?
And Australia not being a priority..but we hear about US shortage too?

 

[UMike]

There is a lot of import issues.
Whether it is customs here or country of origin or Covid checking of crew,

It is real and across all import varieties.

 

[moXJO]

Certain electronic components (not silicone chips) are simply not available.
Timber is on backorder.
Then there is manufacturing equipment.
It's pretty varied at the moment.
Domestic stuff is having issues because they can't get the parts they need.

I noticed some of my suppliers are constantly upping % costs every couple of months as well.

I was just about to build a granny flat for my parents in my backyard as well. Probably going to be 50% extra the way it's going.

 

[moXJO]

Depends on the business - any business in the business of maintaining old stuff is run off their feet. The local small engine shop near to me (sells chainsaws, mowers, all that kind of stuff) has a two month repair backlog and are having to actually turn work away.

Most trades are 3-6 months backlog.

 

[frugal.rock]

I was just about to build a granny flat for my parents in my backyard as well. Probably going to be 50% extra the way it's going.

I have this idea as well, not for parents though.
I had figured a figure of 20~25% higher cost purely from covid situation.
Not in a hurry though as that would take away my trading cash...

 

[moXJO]

I have this idea as well, not for parents though.
I had figured a figure of 20~25% higher cost purely from covid situation.
Not in a hurry though as that would take away my trading cash...

I can steel frame on poles, clad walls, roof, internal walls, windows to lock up stage (bare internals for about $25-$30k (that's a kit). Might source all the stuff myself though and do it cheaper.
Finishing the inside will probably be another $30k with appliances. That's doing it myself.

The headache of doing it myself is the real cost. Lucky I had a lot of kids.

 

[wayneL]

Is this what economists call an "externality"?

 

[qldfrog]

I believe the people in charge of the reset could not care less about the planet as long as they can jet to the maldives and visir NP znd Florence wo the hords of lesser people.

 

[noirua]

Europe’s economic outlook has been clouded by the Delta variant. (Published 2021)

Virus cases are surging, governments are returning to economic restrictions and the postpandemic recovery now seems further away.

www.nytimes.com

 

[qldfrog]

Europe’s economic outlook has been clouded by the Delta variant. (Published 2021)

Virus cases are surging, governments are returning to economic restrictions and the postpandemic recovery now seems further away.

www.nytimes.com

So,the solution is to vaccinate everyone with a vaccine which may or may not kill you, does not orevent you from catching the virus, does not prevent you from being contagious and does not prevent you from endding in hospital or dying.
As a result,we carry on lockdown which basically do only slow the spread.
We managed this way to kill our economies, extend the epidemy from a quick 1y or sowildfire to a slower burning multi years consuming all carnage, which will now only maybe end when everyone will have been contaminated and the 1 or 2 pc death rate achieved.
How the hell can iur economy survive this mismanagement?
10000s overseas military personnel arrived in central Queensland from US, Korea, Canada, UK,etc while a restaurant owner can not open fully in sydney or you can not cross a state border to do a job there?
What a shamble under the name of science...

 

[noirua]

Limited reply to qldfrog as I'm finding difficulty logging in from my domain. So I'm posting whilst logged out which is a bit odd but I can't search or do anything else.

Most countries are in a bit of a pickle over the new Delta Variant. On CNN they recon this new variant spreads more in powder form than droplets that float in the air and is 1,000 times easier to catch. New cases are over 45,000 a day in the UK and deaths are rising. Cases in America are rising fast and the death rate has risen again to about 259 per day. Australia should be OK as the complete shutdown methods seem to work better. The UK is all over the shop though vaccinations are going ahead well and probably only second place to Israel. America has got so far but vaccine resistance is a problem over there.

 

[qldfrog]

Limited reply to qldfrog as I'm finding difficulty logging in from my domain. So I'm posting whilst logged out which is a bit odd but I can't search or do anything else.

Most countries are in a bit of a pickle over the new Delta Variant. On CNN they recon this new variant spreads more in powder form than droplets that float in the air and is 1,000 times easier to catch. New cases are over 45,000 a day in the UK and deaths are rising. Cases in America are rising fast and the death rate has risen again to about 259 per day. Australia should be OK as the complete shutdown methods seem to work better. The UK is all over the shop though vaccinations are going ahead well and probably only second place to Israel. America has got so far but vaccine resistance is a problem over there.

Thanks for your effort.seems posting worked.
The real question is does vaccine really work and help, and if we have agreed that 2% death rate is unacceptable..the basis for killing our economy,is 1% ok after vaccination knowing we have no idea if the vaccinated masses today will not die of unknow consequences in 5y time, or if our lockdown and vaccins strategy is not in fact breeding a super killer.
The first mRNA vaccine tried against dengue fever in the Philippines killed 600 kids..as we realised after the fact that people who had had no previous exposure overreacted in contact ..a rough summary...but you can read about this yourself.

So who know what will happen when mRNA vaccinated people are exposed to a new variant of a similar or different virus in a year time.I do not know..which is ok..but neither does anyone..which is definitively not ok.
That summarises my view based on what i could find as information.
If the risk factor is good: over 65 or already sick:get the shot, otherwise your own interest is to do nothing.
I hear..but what about community interest?
Sure, when is a community interest to potentially sacrifice the below 60y old to save the above 60?
Even if i approach that threshold, i still consider i should die before my kids/grandkids..and so should we?