Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[sptrawler]

a quick trivia:
2021 australian economy 1.61 trillion
QE 2021 100 billions or 0.1 trillion or 6% of the economy
https://www.focus-economics.com/cou...-quantitative-easing-at-first-meeting-of-2021
Question:
if you give a shop owner a 6% of his assets gift and his assets grow by 1.1%, what is the outstanding growth of this beautiful business.
Are you a buyer?

What if you own the printing press? It is only numbers on a spread sheet, did Australia gain anything over the years it didn't go the QE route?
Maybe it isn't all based on logics.

 

[over9k]

What if you own the printing press? It is only numbers on a spread sheet, did Australia gain anything over the years it didn't go the QE route?
Maybe it isn't all based on logics.

Yes well this is the debate that has the authorities very quietly sweating bullets behind closed doors.

It does appear that they are going to try & inflate (print) their way out of it over a long slow melt.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes well this is the debate that has the authorities very quietly sweating bullets behind closed doors.

It does appear that they are going to try & inflate (print) their way out of it over a long slow melt.

Or they are one step ahead, duh

 

[over9k]

Printing money is really only something you do when you have no other choice. I can assure you, they REALLY don't want to do it.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes well this is the debate that has the authorities very quietly sweating bullets behind closed doors.

I'll put it another way, when was the last time the ATO sweated bullets about you and when was the last time you sweated bullets about the ATO, I'll bet on the latter. ?

 

[over9k]

But back to the thread topic:


Musings: How long infection etc paranoia will remain "after" the pandemic?

Currently, car travel numbers (no need to post the data to make the point) are actually higher than their pre-pandemic levels because everyone are avoiding public transport/being stuck in a small space with other random people. How long will that paranoia remain? Will it take years and years and years for public transport numbers (confidence) to return?

If so, car sales are to experience a massive boom once they sort the microchip shortage issue.

Taking that a step further, will that paranoia be strong enough to keep people off of aeroplanes? We saw that last year through thanksgiving, christmas etc that it did, but that was before vaccines were out in any kind of significant numbers.


Something tells me emotion will override logic for quite some time here.

 

[sptrawler]

Printing money is really only something you do when you have no other choice. I can assure you, they REALLY don't want to do it.

I had that very same discussion, with an accountant at the Phuket airport terminal, just after the GFC.
Funnily enough he said exactly what you just said.
I can actually troll back and find that exact same example, if you want.

 

[sptrawler]

But back to the thread topic:


Musings: How long infection etc paranoia will remain "after" the pandemic?

Currently, car travel numbers (no need to post the data to make the point) are actually higher than their pre-pandemic levels because everyone are avoiding public transport/being stuck in a small space with other random people. How long will that paranoia remain? Will it take years and years and years for public transport numbers (confidence) to return?

If so, car sales are to experience a massive boom once they sort the microchip shortage issue.

Taking that a step further, will that paranoia be strong enough to keep people off of aeroplanes? We saw that last year through thanksgiving, christmas etc that it did, but that was before vaccines were out in any kind of significant numbers.


Something tells me emotion will override logic for quite some time here.

Possibly because everyone is home and therefore more are travelling domestically, no one is travelling overseas which was a huge outflux pre pandemic, so now are travelling at home.
Big bucks being recirculated, rather than redistributed to other countries, win/ win.
I know I rented a car pre covid in Tassie for 4 weeks $400, rented a car Queensland 3 weeks/ 3 years ago $600.
I have just rented a car for 13 days in Queensland same company $1,300, so don't tell me Australia isn't having a Beano. ?

 

[qldfrog]

What if you own the printing press? It is only numbers on a spread sheet, did Australia gain anything over the years it didn't go the QE route?
Maybe it isn't all based on logics.

Just wanted to point out we roughly lost 5% of our collective wealth with that growth.
We got 1% more on our cheque account against a 6% increase of our personal loan debt.not exactly a yahee moment.
Not saying QE was worst solution but this is not a win.
Precovid i was bringing 100k a year of overseas money into oz:, during and post covid, this is 0.
but government company welfare prevented closure and allowed me to keep buying stuff here and paying bills.
Ok for me but still negative economically for Australia.

 

[qldfrog]

Covid and pork price.
Is it just me?
While overall grocery prices are tending .much..higher, i noticed pork is getting cheaper and cheaper.
Roasts can be bought at $7 to 8$ a kg,leg ham still at $9 or so a kg.
Does anyone know if this is another consequences of Chinese bans?
I put the Chinese bans on seafood, barley, coal,..you name it within this thread as we can argue this is a covid fallout.

 

[qldfrog]

Economic and covid:
i think we have seen nothing yet until we at last all agree that virus is man made and coming from the Wuhan lab.
Seems that now that Trump is gone,it is not fake news anymore and @Joe Blow can sleep soundly without FB/google knocking on his door if write this ( So i do...delete if still too early)
I like real science and truth but am actually scared by the consequences of the West backpedaling, it so rises the prospect of being able to blame China on the death of millions of lives and businesses.
Next step is reparations calls and diversion tactics. Taipei ?
With full electronic and economic war... ?
And this whole mess completely discredit our (former) democratic governments, media and "science" as we present it nowadays.
Pangolins and bats meat in fish market..seriously?
When people will realise the amount of BS....and at least some will..


.

 

[over9k]

Possibly because everyone is home and therefore more are travelling domestically, no one is travelling overseas which was a huge outflux pre pandemic, so now are travelling at home.
Big bucks being recirculated, rather than redistributed to other countries, win/ win.
I know I rented a car pre covid in Tassie for 4 weeks $400, rented a car Queensland 3 weeks/ 3 years ago $600.
I have just rented a car for 13 days in Queensland same company $1,300, so don't tell me Australia isn't having a Beano. ?

Oh yeah. Tourism is a net negative for a lot of countries/states. I'm hanging out to get my renovations done so I can start milking the airbnb teat. I even have a spare car i'll rent to them for ridiculous money on account of that shortage as well.

 

[qldfrog]

An interesting article/view
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...fallout-now-not-the-west-20210603-p57xmc.html
I disagree in that i believe the west has been annihilated economically
Except maybe indeed the US
EU is no more. Really between covid,socialism, migrants and aging population, it took less than a year to put the final nail to the coffin.
Oz,NZ, Japan...not that good.
So we are left with a strong US, thanks to Trump vaccine campaign..the irony... And also lower lockdowns..plus the basic spring of US capitalism.
Vs China and its belt neighbours
US has Biden and its clique to destroy economy and national cohesion vs China facing (slow) aging.
A race to the bottom but i still believe China will win it.
China might even push faster and this is worrying in term of war.. economic.. electronic already started in my view.
Hopefully we can avoid a hot war.
And all that because of the work harder, work faster so common there of a lab sorcerer playing God with viruses LEGO kit

 

[over9k]

Look back through history and you'll quickly see that every single time there is any kind of significant economic downturn, every single time without fail, governments go on massive infrastructure binges. We don't need to go into why or our personal opinions on it being a good idea or not, we only need to think about the fact that it is going to happen.

And roads, bridges, railways etc etc all require a lot of steel, concrete, rocks and so forth, much of which australia provides literally most of the world's supply of. Combine this with much of the competition failing to control the virus and it just ravaging their populations/shutting their economies down, and things are going to be more than peachy for the minerals sector going forward.

This is not complicated.

CAT now up 50% since that post:



Or a good 150% if you'd bought in either the march or the may lows:



With it paying dividends the whole time as well, this has been a really solid play. DEERE has followed a similiar trend.

Zero intentions to sell.

 

[sptrawler]

@over9k if the U.S decides that the benefits of using cheap Chinese labour, is outweighed by the risk it presents, they will soon crank up the industrial machine.
There is only one thing the U.S multinationals hate worse than losing profit, it is the fear of losing their industry because another country decides to nationalise it, the ship is turning IMO.

 

[Smurf1976]

Currently, car travel numbers (no need to post the data to make the point) are actually higher than their pre-pandemic levels because everyone are avoiding public transport/being stuck in a small space with other random people. How long will that paranoia remain? Will it take years and years and years for public transport numbers (confidence) to return?

Not just the pandemic but also the other practical aspects there too.

I'm thinking there'd be people who've managed without a car for however long, seeing owning one as an unnecessary expense and so on, but now that they have one they've changed their mind and will not be going back to their non-car days even if COVID is completely eradicated.

Associated with that, there's at least a few companies that have decided to officially review their office presence in the CBD. They're looking at two questions, first being whether they need a head office building on that scale at all and second, if they do need it, whether it really needs to be located in the CBD?

Any outcome there other than no change is a negative for the CBD and public transport - if they ditch the office altogether then that means work from home and even if they simply relocate to a suburban area, that most likely means workers driving to the office and parking on site rather than catching public transport to the CBD.

CBD = any CBD since the concept isn't unique to any one city or state.

 

[over9k]

Oh they've already pivoted to cheap mexican labour trawler. I could do a more in-depth post if you like, but the long & the short of it is that mexico has had a baby boom (which means lots of young, able-bodied people) and china a bust, and mexico is right next door. So much so that all the car manufacturers (and others) have already set up shop there and gas, oil etc is being plumbed across the border to combine american cheap energy with mexican cheap labour:



This transition was already underway long before coronavirus. It isn't about to happen or is in the process of happening, it has already happened.

 

[Smurf1976]

Possibly because everyone is home and therefore more are travelling domestically, no one is travelling overseas which was a huge outflux pre pandemic, so now are travelling at home.

There'd be regional differences there in who wins and loses.

I haven't looked into any figures but certainly some areas of Australia under normal circumstances are net winners from tourism, eg the Gold Coast would be one, and others are net losers from it since locals go to other places but the town itself isn't on the tourist map.

 

[over9k]

Not just the pandemic but also the other practical aspects there too.

I'm thinking there'd be people who've managed without a car for however long, seeing owning one as an unnecessary expense and so on, but now that they have one they've changed their mind and will not be going back to their non-car days even if COVID is completely eradicated.

Associated with that, there's at least a few companies that have decided to officially review their office presence in the CBD. They're looking at two questions, first being whether they need a head office building on that scale at all and second, if they do need it, whether it really needs to be located in the CBD?

Any outcome there other than no change is a negative for the CBD and public transport - if they ditch the office altogether then that means work from home and even if they simply relocate to a suburban area, that most likely means workers driving to the office and parking on site rather than catching public transport to the CBD.

CBD = any CBD since the concept isn't unique to any one city or state.

Yep, with you here, I'm sure you saw my post about the hybrid work model etc being the model of choice at the moment.

There's also talk of the future being "donut" cities - a city where the middle gets hollowed out on account of people no longer needing to go into the CBD for work etc every day. People still live close enough for the conveniences, kids' sports etc etc but that's basically all.

I'd go a step further move to one of the satellites (geelong, wollongong, sunshine coast etc) and just eat the 100km commute one or two days a week if I only needed to be in the office every so often.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I know I rented a car pre covid in Tassie for 4 weeks $400, rented a car Queensland 3 weeks/ 3 years ago $600.
I have just rented a car for 13 days in Queensland same company $1,300,

Demand and supply.

Do you think a rational business would keep stock around during lockdown? Especially when the second hand market boomed (which it has)