Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[over9k]

So check this out, look at where NRGU is premarket at the exact moment that soxl, fngu, tqqq etc are all looking like rebounding (and doing so when everything else isn't):



This is only premarket but things are looking good so far.

 

[over9k]

Completely unrelated:



It's going to be amazing to see how the powers that be try to spin this as anything but a good thing. Over on CNBC they're already spinning it as indicative of a "previous inflation concern".

Just like when the gamestop stuff was going on, any time the little guy gets one over the corporate interests it's cause for some kind of "concern". Honestly, these people make me sick.




I for one am over the moon for the little guys getting their first decent raise in decades. Good for them.

 

[over9k]

Jeez, take a picture gang, it looks like I've managed to actually time both a sell (NRGU) AND a buy (SOXL):




Now if only I hadn't lost twice as much on RIOT after Elon Musk's tweets torpedoed bitcoin today...

 

[over9k]

Semiconductors (microchips) have had a wild ride lately on account of the virus outbreak fears in taiwan, but it looks like they've developed a nice little channel for the time being:



Virus effects etc are a bit of a writeoff on account of all this crypto stuff sending markets reeling.

 

[over9k]

Beautiful. Literally on the day & everything.

In fact, quite a few sectors/stocks have found their floors/ranges/channels lately. Not all, but quite a few have:

 

[Knobby22]

Unemployment went down this month despite businesses losing the supplement.
It appears to me that the shutting off of the economy which has prevented foreign workers entering the economy has resulted in Australia(of large economies) being the least effected in Unemployment.(according to Alan Kohler graph today).

 

[sptrawler]

Unemployment went down this month despite businesses losing the supplement.
It appears to me that the shutting off of the economy which has prevented foreign workers entering the economy has resulted in Australia(of large economies) being the least effected in Unemployment.(according to Alan Kohler graph today).

Or those who have enjoyed the benefits of an increased income, now not enjoying the lifestyle change.
There is an old saying, you dont know what you have lost, till it is gone.

 

[over9k]

And here's your scalp:



Sold 50/175 at the resistance level, sold 25 more earlier today at about +6% for the day (so about +15% from the buy), it topped out at about +9% for the day but I'm going to continue holding.

You'll see that NRGU (and there's been plenty of others, DPST, BNKU et al, no need to post 30 different graphs) clipped resistance the afternoon of the day before SOXL's plummet to support too, marking the high of one corresponding with the low of the other beautifully (just like last time):



Considering the week this has been and fridays generally see profits taken even when things are more certain I wouldn't be surprised to see a big flip tomorrow again.

Plenty of swing plays yet!

 

[over9k]

Semiconductors, fangs etc well & truly broken out now (no need to post 30 graphs again):



And with a green day all round, banks & energy are approaching the upper limits of their recent ranges:



Will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings - probably not wise to sell all if both are running as that's not a divergence, it's a bull market, which signals a range about to be broken.

Tech's been on a wild ride because of crypto, not the virus, and we haven't had two green crypto days in a row for quite some time now.

So, once again, the virus really having little effects on the markets now.

 

[over9k]

Right so bonds have dropped significantly along with crop price, so tech has run. Lots of talk about "are the inflation fears over?".

I actually tend to agree when you look at the virus numbers and vaccine rollout rates but I was saying that weeks ago. Not convinced we're still in swing trade territory, quite likely to be more of a bull run.

In short, the "transitory" inflation might finally be in the rear view mirror.



Energy is running under both scenarios, but banks & tech are inverse. Probably a good idea to torch some bank holdings if they clip resistance again. Still digging.

Like the snowstorm in the middle of feb, we now have all this crypto madness causing merry hell and muddying the waters. One look at RIOT over the past couple of weeks will show you the whipsawing we're receiving, which is just filtering out in a classic case of contagion. Crytpo has plummeted and then gone choppy and tech, semiconductors etc followed the same trend very strongly. Not convinced that's over yet either as it's literally been on one day +/-10% or more turnarounds for quite some time now.

If crypto keeps pulling tomorrow it'll mark the first real breakout in quite a while, so that'll give us some confidence. SOXL, FNGU, QQQ etc have already busted resistance significantly.

 

[over9k]

Yep, starting to think the market manipulation is in full swing:

 

[over9k]

Aaaaaand China's CSI300 runs 3% for the day.

Yep, the fix is in alright.

 

[over9k]

There you go, BNKU clipping resistance before dropping precipitously immediately:



At the same time that NRGU is at support level:



Tech pretty much flat for the day (in fact aside from the above the day's been a bit of a snoozefest all round but it's a tuesday and they usually are).

 

[over9k]

More supply constraint problems:



This is, again, a supply side problem. Housing starts, which can be viewed here:

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf

Were some 9.5% below estimates. Why? Because builders literally cannot get the materials they need to build them.

So if you can't get any stock, you can't sell anything. No sales means no profits.


Result?

NAIL plummets:



I'm late to this party and should've bought some a week ago but it's still a buy now IMO. Remember, this is because of a constraint on supply.

It's literally as simple as as vaccines = production = sales.


And vaccines are soon to be deployed to the young/fit that actually do the physical work which produces things like timber

 

[sptrawler]

It looks like the winds of change are upon us, after 40 years of decimating Australia's steel manufacturing, the ship may slowly be turning.

Port Kembla blast furnace upgrade declared critical to Australian steelmaking

The New South Wales government has declared plans to upgrade one of Bluescope Steel's Port Kembla blast furnaces as Critical State Significant Infrastructure.

www.abc.net.au

From the article:
The New South Wales government has declared plans to upgrade one of Bluescope Steel's Port Kembla blast furnaces as Critical State Significant Infrastructure.

Key points:​

• Blast furnace number 6 would be ready for operation when number 5 is decommissioned in 2026
• BlueScope said the upgrade was the most technically feasible and and economically attractive option for Australian steelmaking
• The production of steel at Port Kembla produces 2.6 million tonnes per annum

Planning Minister Rob Stokes said the proposed $700 million upgrade would provide continued employment for the existing 4,500 workers and contractors, and create an additional 1,000 jobs during construction.

"Declaring a project as Critical State Significant Infrastructure (CSSI) means that it goes through a particularly fast-tracked process," Mr Stokes said.

 

[over9k]

I reckon the market will sort this out itself frog - if you're needed in the office, you're needed in the office.

The thing is you're probably not needed in the office every day, so let's say you worked from home 2/5 days a week, if your company sets up a hot-desk system, that's still a 40% rent reduction.

That's the thing about all of this - it's not an either/or proposition, you can be in the office when needed and stay home when not. For example, if I was only in the office one day a week I'd move hours away from work and just deal with one loooooong day each week if it meant all the other days were a commute from my kitchen to my home office 5 seconds walk away.

Called it:

HSBC to cut office footprint as staff embrace hybrid work model

Global banking giant HSBC is reducing its office space in Sydney by 30 per cent before the end of 2022, in line with a recent global strategy to cut back its real estate footprint.

www.smh.com.au

 

[pozindustrial]

Same as the auto industry they used to prop up. I would love to see us making goods of high quality efficiently so those industries could stand on their own. Ford and others used to buy from the Kobe mill in Japan because after many Cries for help BHP could not produce the quality required

 

[sptrawler]

Well it looks as though the result is out, the first V shaped recovery, in a long time.

Australia is one of six countries to grow its economy since the pandemic began. This is why

Australia's economy bounces back from the COVID recession, growing by a much-better-than-expected 1.1 per cent over the past year thanks in part to government subsidies boosting key sectors.

www.abc.net.au

From the article:
Australia's economy has bounced back from the COVID recession, growing by a much-better-than-expected 1.1 per cent over the past year.

The ABS GDP data show Australia's economy grew 1.8 per cent over the three months to March, which was also better than most forecasts.

More to come.

 

[over9k]

A lot of base effect data about at the moment.

Also a mountain of debt added to the public purse.

 

[qldfrog]

Well it looks as though the result is out, the first V shaped recovery, in a long time.

Australia is one of six countries to grow its economy since the pandemic began. This is why

Australia's economy bounces back from the COVID recession, growing by a much-better-than-expected 1.1 per cent over the past year thanks in part to government subsidies boosting key sectors.

www.abc.net.au

From the article:
Australia's economy has bounced back from the COVID recession, growing by a much-better-than-expected 1.1 per cent over the past year.

The ABS GDP data show Australia's economy grew 1.8 per cent over the three months to March, which was also better than most forecasts.

More to come.

a quick trivia:
2021 australian economy 1.61 trillion
QE 2021 100 billions or 0.1 trillion or 6% of the economy
https://www.focus-economics.com/cou...-quantitative-easing-at-first-meeting-of-2021
Question:
if you give a shop owner a 6% of his assets gift and his assets grow by 1.1%, what is the outstanding growth of this beautiful business.
Are you a buyer?