Dona Ferentes
Pengurus pengatur
- Joined
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And, whatever happened to "Win Win"?
And, whatever happened to "Win Win"?I've no doubt the cost will end up very much higher but it's the concept I'm interested in.
These things take time, they don't happen overnight and I'm thinking in terms of a turning point of the kind Wethat to most will be apparent only many years after the event. I'm not expecting to see anything dramatic next week etc.
Much like Australian state politicians generally didn't acknowledge any decline of manufacturing until well into the 1990's. Prior to that, they were still going to elections talking up the prospects of someone building a factory - never mind that the sector had been declining for 20 years by that point, it took a very long time to sink in.
Or for a less serious example, Rock music peaked in 1983 and outright fell off the cliff after 1989. Factually correct from a commercial perspective as a % of music sales but I expect there'd be more than a few who took the next 20 years to realise that such a fundamental shift had taken place. Most would've been thinking in terms of individual bands having passed their peak, not grasping that the entire genre was headed to oblivion so far as the mainstream is concerned. That's US data but would be much the same in Australia.
I may well be wrong but I do get a definite impression that a turning point has occurred of that nature. Won't be noticeable for a while but the political language does seem to have shifted away from the whole 1970's - 2019 thinking of "free trade", "there is no such thing as society", "government debt is always bad" and so on and toward "need to make things here" and "need to focus on lifestyle not just money" and "government needs to invest" etc. That's a profound change that, if continued, will ripple through pretty much everything over time just as the changes in the 70's - 80's did.
The examples I've given are just to illustrate really, it's the sentiment I'm looking at and pondering where that leads more broadly?
One of the more obvious implications is inflation. Government borrows heavily and inflates it away meanwhile a shift of at least some production to developed countries with higher production costs. The ideas in the US of increasing tax rates are another one that goes against the paradigm of recent decades.
Individually each can be dismissed, but not if there's a pattern forming.
Simple, 10 richer Chineses vs 1 richer western business boss paying taxes and interest on the debt used to provide universal income to 9 unemployed western workers.And, whatever happened to "Win Win"?
Got you an answer @Smurf1976One thing I haven't seen anyone try to properly work out (and I haven't tried myself either) is exactly what the capacity of the world's oil fields is right now?
That is, if all the taps are fully opened, all the pumps are on and deducting normal routine outages for maintenance etc then what's the daily flow rate globally?
Almost certainly it's lower now than it was a year ago but by how much I wonder?
Point being that so long as consumption remains below capacity, OPEC can control the market but once consumption exceeds capacity, there's nothing anyone can do to avoid a price shock and with that price going to whatever level it takes to get production and consumption back in balance.
An oil shock, a proper one, is at least possible in my view. "Proper" as in it becomes mainstream news, not just financial news.
I can see that blowing up one way or another."At this pace, Australia's adult population will not be fully vaccinated until March 2024".
Interesting.
Oh yeah. There's been an awful lot of talking heads (in the right circles) being all "Don't get ahead of yourselves here, globally, we're not even halfway through this thing yet".I can see that blowing up one way or another.
Either medically with an outbreak or politically with whatever consequences that brings but if we take that date as correct, well that's almost 3 years away meaning we're only about 30% of the way through this whole saga.
I seriously wonder how long before India's economy/society totally cracks under the impact of COVID. The official figures are staggering but all other intelligence says the real figures are multiples higher. Brazil and other South American countries are also struggling to survive.
The new COVID variants which are significantly more infectious are spreading the disease far more rapidly than a year ago. At some stage the economic fallout of this situation will be profound.
New COVID-19 Cases Worldwide - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
Have countries flattened the curve? Daily confirmed new COVID-19 cases for the most affected countries over time.coronavirus.jhu.edu 'Impossibly bad': Why India's coronavirus disaster may be far worse than anyone imagines
India's coronavirus surge has broken records, but the numbers reported are widely expected to be under representative of the actual figures.www.abc.net.au
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