Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[cutz]

Actually who really care,seriously, if not today then tomorrow, with a truck driver, by contact via a rubbish bin, an airvent as in Hong Kong, elimination / eradication is a pipe dream...
We are heading into summer so all will be good for the next 4 months here but northern hemisphere will have plenty of new contamination, not thatbit really matters as many of the frails are already gone and the virus is weakening..as per normal virus behaviour.
So more cases, even less death, but gov pushing the scare tactic even further
So invest in the firms of utopia of the great reset and first xnd giremost orotect your assets, we should see some serious unfolding in the next 6 months

Hi Frog,

I agree with your sentiments, personally I do not fear the virus, my feeling is that it will not be eradicated. I fear more the collateral damage that has been unleased upon society and especially our young , too much to mention, the disintegration of our nation into island states...

My comments are more based around the strategy that has been decided on our behalf and the incompetence in the execution.

 

[cutz]

Only the Police or Army are suitable to fulfil this role.

If I were in charge I would quarantine everyone in a remote camp such as was done in Portsea for Victoria last century or on Christmas Island for returning Australians from overseas. It would be run by the Army and would have medical backup.

We need to harden up as a nation. Accept orders. Quarantine in some gawd awful faraway place and allowed leave when cleared by a test.

And stop whinging.

gg

Exactly, quarantine is what has been decided on , do it properly !

Don't stuff it up then cover it up using " the science says " as an excuse to unleash some more pain.

 

[greggles]

One million new COVID-19 cases in the USA in just one week.

Hospitals overrun as U.S. reports 1 million new coronavirus cases in a week

Hospitals are overwhelmed with the growing number COVID-19 patients being brought in, while state leaders have announced new measures to try to control the spread of the virus.

www.cbsnews.com

This is now completely out of control in the USA and will eventually infect everyone in the country, bar those who are hiding out in concrete bunkers or isolated cabins until a working vaccine is released.

The economic effects will be profound and long lasting.

 

[wayneL]

personally I do not fear the virus,

The WHO, and anyone who has half of clue about this virus agrees with you.

Everything else I'm finding rather comical and absurd.

</unpopularopinion>

 

[cutz]

Apparently the SA case is a new strain “The other characteristic of the cases we have seen so far as they have had minimal symptoms and sometimes no symptoms, but have been able to pass it other people "

SA battles new ‘fast-moving’ coronavirus strain

A COVID-19 cluster in Adelaide’s north grew to 22 on Wednesday as thousands of people continued to flock to testing stations.

thewest.com.au

Hmmmm ??

 

[over9k]

One million new COVID-19 cases in the USA in just one week.

Hospitals overrun as U.S. reports 1 million new coronavirus cases in a week

Hospitals are overwhelmed with the growing number COVID-19 patients being brought in, while state leaders have announced new measures to try to control the spread of the virus.

www.cbsnews.com

This is now completely out of control in the USA and will eventually infect everyone in the country, bar those who are hiding out in concrete bunkers or isolated cabins until a working vaccine is released.

The economic effects will be profound and long lasting.

I've been saying this for a while greggles, keep up


Jokes aside - I saw you read my other posts. I'm holding onto my tech positions for a reason

 

[sptrawler]

Apparently the SA case is a new strain “The other characteristic of the cases we have seen so far as they have had minimal symptoms and sometimes no symptoms, but have been able to pass it other people "

SA battles new ‘fast-moving’ coronavirus strain

A COVID-19 cluster in Adelaide’s north grew to 22 on Wednesday as thousands of people continued to flock to testing stations.

thewest.com.au

Hmmmm ??

Interesting for sure, new strain, yet to be released vaccine.

 

[qldfrog]

Apparently the SA case is a new strain “The other characteristic of the cases we have seen so far as they have had minimal symptoms and sometimes no symptoms, but have been able to pass it other people "

SA battles new ‘fast-moving’ coronavirus strain

A COVID-19 cluster in Adelaide’s north grew to 22 on Wednesday as thousands of people continued to flock to testing stations.

thewest.com.au

Hmmmm ??

Guess what,that is covid19 where 75% of contaminated people are not even aware...
Surprise surprise, after meeting the real thing,mosts are shocked it is nowhere as horrendous as described in the media...
At least in europe, people know real cases and however hard the propaganda, they can see the reality

 

[qldfrog]

One million new COVID-19 cases in the USA in just one week.

Hospitals overrun as U.S. reports 1 million new coronavirus cases in a week

Hospitals are overwhelmed with the growing number COVID-19 patients being brought in, while state leaders have announced new measures to try to control the spread of the virus.

www.cbsnews.com

This is now completely out of control in the USA and will eventually infect everyone in the country, bar those who are hiding out in concrete bunkers or isolated cabins until a working vaccine is released.

The economic effects will be profound and long lasting.

No vaccine is required nce spread is wide enough, it will self combust
With vaccine by the time it becomes available: a few billions $ cost, without: same results, free..as long that there are no stupid irrational lockdowns..but that would be putting politics out of the debate

 

[over9k]

One million new COVID-19 cases in the USA in just one week.

Hospitals overrun as U.S. reports 1 million new coronavirus cases in a week

Hospitals are overwhelmed with the growing number COVID-19 patients being brought in, while state leaders have announced new measures to try to control the spread of the virus.

www.cbsnews.com

This is now completely out of control in the USA and will eventually infect everyone in the country, bar those who are hiding out in concrete bunkers or isolated cabins until a working vaccine is released.

The economic effects will be profound and long lasting.

Alright greggles, you weren't wrong here. Check it out, two headlines in one:



Nursing homes are now getting ravaged, and new york has just busted the 3% positive rate that triggers the lockdowns again:



But it's actually worse than that as hospitality etc is getting shut as well:



And just to sink the boot in, thanksgiving & christmas are both coming and are both the mother of all superspreader events:




So what do we all think happened with the markets today?

Well almost everything was deep into the red, exactly like I've been saying was coming. Even the R2000 was smashed, having its first "worst of the indexes" day in weeks, though not by much:



But, note how the nasdaq was the best of a bad bunch. Well, on virus & lockdown announcements, we know that tech & work/stay at home stocks run, so how'd they do?

Well the fangs (which are the ones driving almost all of the tech sector gains) ended well into the green:



And zoom took off exactly like I've been saying was due, running about 6% in an hour:



As an aside, you can see how quickly the market responds to lockdown news now. It's pretty bloody obvious when the new york lockdown was announced isn't it? And, the volume remained high for the rest of the day as all the cheeky day traders took their profits and stopped zoom heading truly stratospheric. I think there's a LOT more in this yet, so I've held.

 

[over9k]

Here's some actual pure economic consequences of the pandemic - the "work from home" revolution isn't going to reverse:

 

[over9k]

Ok so remember this post?

Well:

View attachment 114859

Lol.


Not being funny here, how clueless do you have to be to genuinely think that modelling is still valid in this environment?

Update #2 to this original post about how retail traders are beating the idiots in the institutions still using modelling, and, well, I just...



Let's play a game. At what point do you go "well golly jeepers, I don't think modelling is the right approach in this environment"?

20% loss? 40%? 60%?

Oh no. Not even close.


































You'd like to think that some authority would pull this guy's (and everyone else like him) licence or whatever, but I doubt it.

 

[over9k]

Alright so it was a pretty quiet day aside from more vaccine numbers (which is becoming monotonous at this point).



Microcaps & megacaps/tech were once again the best place(s) to be. Semiconductors, after their one red day in ages (along with the one red day for microcaps) yesterday, flew again.

After close tomorrow I'm going to compare this week to last week to see if the responses to each vaccine (which were both conveniently announced before market open monday) matched one another. If so, that'll give us a good idea on how to play the next vaccine announcement: change nothing.

I expect it's going to follow a similiar pattern, but be far more subdued/with far less volatility. Correlation of 0.5, something like that.

Unless the next vaccine is a different one that can be administered through a nasal spray, stored at room temperature, and produced/delivered by the tanker load in just a few days or something, I expect the market will just shrug at it.

 

[over9k]

Even normies are starting to figure things out now:

 

[qldfrog]

Even normies are starting to figure things out now:

View attachment 114971

putting this within the light of the Reset favored by the swamp, sorry world economic forum:
if you take a step back, the target is a soviet-ization on a global world wide scale, an intelligentsia ruling, fake elections, equality of outcome, removal of individuals/individual freedom, state and party uberall;
Once this is agreed, what was the economic model of the soviet time?
a top down economy, destruction of SME replaced by state companies;
this translates in nowadays world in :
anti competitive rulings, triumph of the FANGS who will become tools of state and omnipresent, and a few state favored giants: a few oilers, pharmas, wind/solar energy, a tesla of some sort, a couple of mega agrobusiness, defence stocks; and the rest doomed for coming decades of taxation/rulings;
It would be a good bet to buy google or FB at the next fall for a long term bet, both very willing to please the masters
Not so sure about amazon but they have the dollars to pay their way in so could survive maybe after a split or name change

 

[over9k]

I mentioned how cold effects lethality as well as spread, and the U.S hospital system is already buckling under the strain even with military field hospitals etc set up:



And headlines like this are being posted every few hours, there's just a new record being hit constantly now:



We also spoke about oil before, and the storage is nearly full again:



I've been mulling a bet against energy for a while. Didn't want to do it knowing vaccines could be announced any day and that's over now unless we count this oxford one that's due soon. There's inverse etf's to do it with. Hmm.

Problem is that energy is already loooooooow as it is. It bounced on the vaccine news obviously, but there's really not a great deal less to drop compared to a year ago.

I'm still mulling it over - would love to hear anyone else's input.

 

[over9k]

Dow Jones Lower as Disney Mulls Skipping Theaters, Microsoft Makes Teams Video Calls Free for Now

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) was struggling on Friday as cases of COVID-19 continued to surge across the United States, and as various Federal Reserve lending programs were terminated effective Dec. 31. Johns Hopkins University reported nearly 190,000 new CO

www.nasdaq.com

Disney mulls skipping theaters entirely.

Theaters: Another business in structural decline that has been KO'd by coronavirus & is already a dead business/will not return. Why go out when you can just stream it into your loungeroom through the movie studio's own streaming service? It's a win for the consumer as much as it is a win for the studios, who no longer have the cinemas taking a cut out of the ticket cost.

 

[over9k]

Tech & microcaps still the places to be. Megatech was down slightly. Zoom flew 6%. I should hope the reason why would be obvious. The weekend's going to be ugly, and it's not going to get better.

The only position I've changed is to make a small bet against energy with ERY.

 

[barney]

Quick shout out to you @over9k ...... Whether people agree/disagree/don't care etc, you have put a lot of time/effort into presenting lots of information on this thread .....

I'm only just catching up on the last few days, but well done!

 

[Smurf1976]

Disney mulls skipping theaters entirely.

Theaters:

Rationally I agree but cinemas have been remarkably resilient thus far.

TV was going to wipe them out in the 1950's then when that didn't happen VCR's were sure to kill them off in the early 1980's. Then it was going to be large flat screen TV's and surround sound.

That past resilience makes me very cautious in proclaiming any death of cinemas. They've been killed off a few times already but always bounced back.